Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FreqFlyer]

Sooner or later, there will be a serious or fatal crash involving FSD. No matter the circumstances, be prepared for an onslaught of FUD and SP drop for a bit.

Whether one is for FSD or not, when the first high profile FSD crash takes out a familly, the FUD as it called will be off the wall. Wait till 60 minutes and media start smelling blood (ala Audi unintended acceleration claims in the 80s) and politicians use it to hold hearings to grand stand. Yes, this is going to happen, and still some here cannot tell me whether Tesla would be considered liable since they are creator of said FSD.

 

[AimStellar]

I never had the courage to ask this due to fear of sounding dumb, but here it goes: what does it mean to say the MMs are pushing the stock (in either direction)? Thanks in advance.

 

[Pezpunk]

I never had the courage to ask this due to fear of sounding dumb, but here it goes: what does it mean to say the MMs are pushing the stock (in either direction)? Thanks in advance.

it means humans are, in general, desperate to assign meaning to noise.

 

[capster]

To add to the "what will become of legacy OEMs?"-discussion, many assume that EU/Germany won't let their brands go bankrupt and therefore bail them out.

Thing is, the EU is quite strict regarding ensuring a fair market, in which illegal competition is - well - illegal, just like monopolies, price agreements between competitors, etc.

A nation (e.g. Germany) cannot simply state: all German car manufacturers get let's say tax advantages, a stimulus package, or whatever without giving it to (foreign) competitors in that same space. That would be discriminatory and against the principles of the (in theory fair) EU market.

Same goes for EV credits for example. I would find it hard to believe they grant an EV subsidy for purchase of brand A and B, but not brand C (Tesla). They must distinguish on objective metrics, for example price point. (Or income of the buyer).

Given the above, I'm not too worried about Tesla being pushed away from their lead in the EU. In China, that's another story.

The governments in the EU and of the US, Japan, and Korea as well as some others all want to protect their automotive sectors. They want to protect them from the deleterious effects of the energy transformation and from China.

They are probably negotiating at this minute to find mutually advantageous policies. There are a lot of indirect as well as direct ways for them to intervene.

That said, there are limits to what can be done. Governments probably can’t (and perhaps shouldn’t) save all of their OEM’s.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The governments in the EU and of the US, Japan, and Korea as well as some others all want to protect their automotive sectors. They want to protect them from the deleterious effects of the energy transformation and from China.

They are probably negotiating at this minute to find mutually advantageous policies. There are a lot of indirect as well as direct ways for them to intervene.

That said, there are limits to what can be done. Governments probably can’t (and perhaps shouldn’t) save all of their OEM’s.

When it comes to Europe and specifically like Germany, I don't think they'll do anything that will turn Tesla off to further investment there. While I'm sure Europe traditional auto will make a big fuss, I'm equally as sure that German and Europe officials recognize that Tesla is going to be the main driver of expansion and job growth for the next 10 years at minimum. If they decide to enact policies that single out Tesla, Tesla can and probably will say "We're not doing any further investment here". I find it very hard to believe that they would knowingly shoot themselves in the foot like that

 

[jerry33]

I never had the courage to ask this due to fear of sounding dumb, but here it goes: what does it mean to say the MMs are pushing the stock (in either direction)? Thanks in advance.

MMs make money on churn. They do their best to get you to either sell (when prices fall) or buy (when prices rise). Best way to defeat this is to buy and hold (HODL).

 

[Knightshade]

Whether one is for FSD or not, when the first high profile FSD crash takes out a familly, the FUD as it called will be off the wall. Wait till 60 minutes and media start smelling blood (ala Audi unintended acceleration claims in the 80s) and politicians use it to hold hearings to grand stand. Yes, this is going to happen, and still some here cannot tell me whether Tesla would be considered libel since they are creator of said FSD.

Bear in mind the "FSDBeta" coming in (maybe) 10ish days will still be L2.

There's already been a few high profile L2 Tesla crashes/deaths.

Arguably the most famous was Walter Huang- March 23 2018.

March 23 close was $60.31...there was a small dip after, but it was back just under $60 2 weeks later (and mostly sat within a couple bucks of 60 until June when it went up some)

The other 2 well known ones are the not-used-on-proper-road cross traffic deaths in May 7 2016 and march 1 2019

May 7 2016 stock was within a buck or two of $42 both sides of the crash and largely stayed around there for a while.

Mar 1 2019 stock was $58.96, it barely moved down at all from this one at $56.83 a week later (though it generally had been slowing declining since January and that continued for months).





Regarding who a "responsible party" is in a crash- it's the driver for all L2 systems (though you can name whomever you want in a lawsuit of course). For higher? Varies by state, but it's most often the person who turns on the system from what I've seen, not the manufacturer.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Libel is related to defamation, generally referring to statements made about someone without just cause and exposing them to public contempt. Liable, on the other hand, is an adjective referring to the person legally responsible for something, such as a debt that is owed.

Libel vs Liable: What is the Difference? | Merriam-Webster​

www.merriam-webster.com › words-at-play › libel-vs-liable

I'm not even going to ask how firearms manufacturer's avoid liability lawsuits in the U.S. because... freedom.

TL;dr that dawg don't hunt

Thank you, I have made the correction.

 

[lklundin]

Let’s see...130 short call contracts expiring tomorrow across my accounts, mostly between 700-750. It’s getting spicy, but I’m much happier devising rolling strategies than I have been margin call-avoidance ones. Make me sweat, baby.

I would like to assume that you are not selling naked calls, making you a pretty serious Tesla investor...

 

[lklundin]

That’s a new game: option poker. That’s gambling on top of gambling

On that note: when will the financial markets start trading options where the underlying security is an option (of any level) ?

PS. I think I am not being serious here, but technically the question is valid... (just like any twice differentiable function has a secondary derivative and from there on it's turtles all the way down).

 

[AimStellar]

MMs make money on churn. They do their best to get you to either sell (when prices fall) or buy (when prices rise). Best way to defeat this is to buy and hold (HODL).

So what exactly are they doing when you say "they do their best" to get you to either sell or buy?

 

[UltradoomY]

So what exactly are they doing when you say "they do their best" to get you to either sell or buy?

Take a peek at the FAQ page to get an idea of what some terms you might not know are -

Wiki - FAQ: TSLA Investor Discussions

This is the FAQ for TMC's TSLA Investor Discussions threads. The purpose of this set of forums is to discuss items and issues relevant to investment of TSLA stock, factors affecting the stock price and personal forecasts of quarterly earnings report results. The main thread is Tesla, TSLA &...

teslamotorsclub.com

Then it should make more sense

 

[AimStellar]

Take a peek at the FAQ page to get an idea of what some terms you might not know are -

Wiki - FAQ: TSLA Investor Discussions

This is the FAQ for TMC's TSLA Investor Discussions threads. The purpose of this set of forums is to discuss items and issues relevant to investment of TSLA stock, factors affecting the stock price and personal forecasts of quarterly earnings report results. The main thread is Tesla, TSLA &...

teslamotorsclub.com

Then it should make more sense

I'm not asking what "MM" means

 

[JustMe]

On that note: when will the financial markets start trading options where the underlying security is an option (of any level) ?

Isn’t that what led to the 2008 mortgage security crash? Well that’s what I learned from the scene in The Big Short when people were betting on bets on Selena Gomez’ blackjack hand

 

[Tslynk67]

That can't be true, can it? I mean there's no way Austin could start producing MY's by the end of Q2 2021, is there?

Of course not, they've obviously been working on a Boring tunnel from Fremont to GF5 and will secretly transport a few finished cars to make it look like they were manufactured there. Musk is a fraud, but you have to admit he's a good one... /tslaq

 

[dl003]

30 year treasury auction went well. Long yields dropping rapidly after. Let's see if they can keep the 700 lid on by EOD.

 

[lklundin]

Not just MMs affecting the SP right now: tomorrow's Close is the S&P 500 "Reference Date" for the March quarterly rebalancing:



https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-us-indices.pdf

TSLA had a SP of $695.00 at the S&P inclusion on Dec 18, 2020. If TSLA varies substantially from that, and more specifically, substantially differing vs relative change of other S&P 500 components, then large index funds will adjust their stock holdings accordingly.

I'm just glad 420 isn't in play...

Cheers!

I would like to agree with that reasoning. So, given that so many Tesla-shares should now be held by S&P 500 tracking/benchmarked funds, how could it happen that the SP dropped so far below 695$ in the past couple of weeks? With those drops, these funds should see the Tesla fraction of their funds drop and so buy more, thus supporting the price. Why did this not happen?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm not asking what "MM" means

There are two separate issues conflated here. The first is general market manipulation. It is well explained in this article from NASDAQ.com

5 Market Manipulation Tactics And How To Avoid Them

Losing investors often blame market manipulation as the primary reason for their lack of success. Pointing at the insiders or massive market players,.

www.nasdaq.com

The second issue is specifically how and why options market makers manipulate the SP to max pain. You understand that these MMs are the ones that write the vast majority of options contracts, right? So there is a specific closing share price at which they have to pay out the least amount to the holders of those contracts.

Oh, and guess what? The Options writers can also buy and sell (including legal naked short selling via Regulation SHO) to move the SP to the level that benefits them the most.

How do market makers manipulate stocks?

Answer (1 of 6): I have been wanting to write this article for a long time but have been too depressed mentally. I want to share with you my arduous journey in the Stock Market dating back to a time in high school when I led my team to win 2nd place in the country in the 2006-2007 National Stock ...

www.quora.com

You can google the rest.

 

[MP3Mike]

I would like to agree with that reasoning. So, given that so many Tesla-shares should now be held by S&P 500 tracking/benchmarked funds, how could it happen that the SP dropped so far below 695$ in the past couple of weeks? With those drops, these funds should see the Tesla fraction of their funds drop and so buy more, thus supporting the price. Why did this not happen?

Because that isn't how it works. As the price drops the value of TSLA they have to hold goes down as well, so they don't have to buy, or sell, shares as the price of TSLA changes.

 

[Pezpunk]

The most outrageous part of this is that there people on this board who pretend it doesn't happen routinely, or is just 'random noise.' I promise you, those people are trading on the information and want others to be the bagholders.

maybe i'm misreading this sentence, but are you accusing me of being part of the secret MM cabal, and intentionally misleading others? because as someone who simply buys and holds Tesla stock, that is hilariously off the mark. (as i said, i might be misinterpreting)