Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dancing Lemur]

I would like to assume that you are not selling naked calls, making you a pretty serious Tesla investor...

Ha, no, they are all covered, and I’m not especially serious

I leveraged up heavily when we were in the 500s, and after a $100+ gain day needed to set some selling tranches to get back to a less aggressive position if it kept climbing.

It‘s setting up a nice bull flag now for the next leg up. Maybe that’ll happen before tomorrow close, maybe not. Either way, I’m burning lots of theta, and I like the stock.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I would like to agree with that reasoning. So, given that so many Tesla-shares should now be held by S&P 500 tracking/benchmarked funds, how could it happen that the SP dropped so far below 695$ in the past couple of weeks? With those drops, these funds should see the Tesla fraction of their funds drop and so buy more, thus supporting the price. Why did this not happen?

Gonna let you chew on this equation for a bit:

695 * (3,956.05/3709.41)

Then we'll chat.

 

[Artful Dodger]

maybe i'm misreading this sentence, but are you accusing me of being part of the secret MM cabal, and intentionally misleading others? because as someone who simply buys and holds Tesla stock, that is hilariously off the mark. (as i said, i might be misinterpreting?)

Pardon me if I'm wrong, but when I asked you this 2 years ago you said you trade TSLA and were far ahead because of that rather than just holding. TIA.

 

[Pezpunk]

Pardon me if I'm wrong, but when I asked you this 2 years ago you said you trade TSLA and were far ahead because of that rather than just holding. TIA.

when i first started buying Tesla (in 2016-2017 i think), i tried to time the dips, but quickly realized how foolish that was.

my approach over the last couple years (which i think is honestly reflected in my posts) has consistently been "i dont know where Tesla will be next week or next month, but i know where it will be in 5 years".

 

[2daMoon]

We’re going to read back through all this years from now laughing at ourselves for caring about such little matters because the SP will have expanded so much beyond today.

Years???

More like months ...

 

[Sofie]

Years???

More like months ...

True THAT!!!!!!

 

[capster]

When it comes to Europe and specifically like Germany, I don't think they'll do anything that will turn Tesla off to further investment there. While I'm sure Europe traditional auto will make a big fuss, I'm equally as sure that German and Europe officials recognize that Tesla is going to be the main driver of expansion and job growth for the next 10 years at minimum. If they decide to enact policies that single out Tesla, Tesla can and probably will say "We're not doing any further investment here". I find it very hard to believe that they would knowingly shoot themselves in the foot like that

Didn’t mean to imply anything specific to Tesla. I was just broadening the discussion beyond individual governments.

These have a common cause: Salvage as much of their legacy auto sectors as possible and help move them through the energy transformation. I’m expecting a kind of mutual protectionism, if you will, though likely only an implicit one.

Governments will of course always be jockeying and attempting to give advantages to their home teams. This is especially true when economic survival is at stake and failure could even lead to war (and I say this judiciously and not for effect). A collective policy approach may help nations avoid being hamstrung by their "strict rules" and moderate tensions when the stakes are so high.

Regarding Tesla: While I don’t personally expect completely level playing fields, neither do I expect much if any effort to slow or disadvantage Tesla.

Still, there may be a feeling that Tesla doesn’t need help. So, I don’t yet have a real sense of what is going to come out in the wash for them, even in the US.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1370080030420840453

Dear lord just how many orders are they getting for the Plaid + S ?????

I've heard through other channels that demand for Plaid and Plaid + have been through the roof since the refresh was unveiled

 

[st_lopes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1370080030420840453

Dear lord just how many orders are they getting for the Plaid + S ?????

I've heard through other channels that demand for Plaid and Plaid + have been through the roof since the refresh was unveiled

Either sold out or production / supply chain issue. Hard to really know without comment from Tesla.

 

[elasalle]

Either sold out or production / supply chain issue. Hard to really know without comment from Tesla.

Problems if there was no price increase, demand otherwise

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Either sold out or production / supply chain issue. Hard to really know without comment from Tesla.

99% positive it's demand being very high. Some people in CA are already reporting that they're being scheduled for deliveries of the Plaid for March and we've heard that 4680 production is ahead of schedule. Considering the delivery estimate got moved about about 6 months.......it's definitely a demand related thing and not production. 6 months is a huge change.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1370080030420840453

Dear lord just how many orders are they getting for the Plaid + S ?????

I've heard through other channels that demand for Plaid and Plaid + have been through the roof since the refresh was unveiled

Probably production issues. Also explains why Elon never held that Model S/X Refresh specific call he mentioned on the Q4 call.

 

[phantasms]

IMHO the Plaid and Plaid+ were priced too close together.

If you're someone who's going to pay that premium, $40k, for the Plaid I'd say 9 times out of 10 you would pay $20k more to have dramatically more range, newer batteries, the fastest car in the world, and likely other improvements.

With my reservation now $12,500 cheaper than ordering today, and orders being placed today being pushed out to middle of next year, I'm thinking maybe I'll grab the Plaid+ and sell it for not much of a loss when the Roadster comes out.

 

[Papafox]

Someone doesn't want TSLA to close above 700 on Friday. Look at the NASDAQ and compare its trading to TSLA. You will see TSLA has an exaggerated Mandatory Morning Dip at 10:20am. Look at the very clear capping pre-market just below 700 and the clear capping at 695 during market hours. When TSLA dares stick its head above 695 it's "WHACK-that-mole!"

I consider this a bullish sign that someone is giving buyers today a discount.

 

[jerry33]

So what exactly are they doing when you say "they do their best" to get you to either sell or buy?

It means they either sell (short, or naked short) or buy stocks (to keep the price up). If you want an education on this read Papafox's daily thread. He explains this in detail.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Probably production issues. Also explains why Elon never held that Model S/X Refresh specific call he mentioned on the Q4 call.

See my post above. People in some parts(parts being very close to Fremont) are already being told to expect delivery of their Plaid S by end of March.

Only way it could be a production related thing is if Tesla decided that 4680 Cells that were originally planned to go into the Plaid + S are better off being used somewhere else. A 6 month change with a price increase seems much more likely related to demand outstripping what they had planned on producing for 2021

 

[thx1139]

Probably production issues. Also explains why Elon never held that Model S/X Refresh specific call he mentioned on the Q4 call.

A car that isnt in production isnt having production issues. Can have the Model S/X Refresh specific call and not show the Plaid+

 

[Artful Dodger]

Years???

More like months ...

At the very bottom of this (very fake) dip, my TSLA investment bottomed out at 125% CAGR, and I was 'only' 2 years, 2 months AHEAD of my investment schedule.

That 'schedule' was created 3 years ago on a projected 50% CAGR. Those are wholly unreasonable expectations, would have been outrageous good returns, but are now completely overshadowed by my ACTUAL returns. Today I am 3 yrs, 1 mth ahead of my expected pace of returns.

Back up to 135% CAGR now. So "More like years... AHEAD".

TL;dr Buy'n'hold is a SUPERPOWER when it comes to great companies.

Cheers!

 

[thx1139]

See my post above. People in some parts(parts being very close to Fremont) are already being told to expect delivery of their Plaid S by end of March.

Only way it could be a production related thing is if Tesla decided that 4680 Cells that were originally planned to go into the Plaid + S are better off being used somewhere else. A 6 month change with a price increase seems much more likely related to demand outstripping what they had planned on producing for 2021

Thats was what I was thinking. Maybe they know that they only will have so many 4680 cells and they want to launch say the Cybertruck or the Semi as well in Q4. So they say we can use X amount for Plaid+ initial orders and then have to wait a few months before capacity is high enough to resume production.

 

[buttershrimp]

That is also likely to be the point in time that there will be a public debate about autonomous driving. It would be wonderful if this debate was somehow forced to precede inevitable tragedy.

The problem will be that when autonomous vehicles crash, they will do in a completely different manner that will seem senseless and completely avoidable to laypeople (“How could it not see the fire truck???”), overshadowing the lack of crashes humans get into all the time but robots will not (eg didn’t check blind spot). The data will obviously plainly favor autonomy, but the subjective feel of the individual tragedies will be a sticking point that the public will need to get over.

EDIT: Put another way, we are wired and conditioned to accept the risk we pose to one another and forgive, because mistakes and lapses in judgment feel familiar.
We do not yet have that subconscious relationship with robots, and I do wonder whether we in the US are enough of a data-driven society at the moment to make the right choice.

From the investor standpoint, it will be prudent to prepare for times when the market may bounce TSLA’s valuation between FSD becoming savior and public enemy #1.

after watching those beta videos, I think deaths from FSD are going to way less likely than simply road rage shootings for other drivers stuck behind overly polite software towards pedestrians