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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

elasalle

driVIN(188xx) it !!
Jan 26, 2016
4,095
21,969
VA
Market FUD will keep SP in check until 1st week of March - when we have production numbers. (low expectations, that will likely be beaten, .. most number of ships to EU, China sales numbers etc)

However, overall market might heat up as stimulus checks are received. (+ I think the big boys see the monies coming from a mile away, and have already begun to position themselves for the feeding frenzy ;) )
If Cathy releases here new price target around the time stimulus checks are received, might be real impactful for both ARK and TSLA ;)
(I am planning to add more cash to my index fund where I cannot do stock pickings)
cheers!!
 
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thx1139

Member
Aug 1, 2014
921
2,246
Lemont, IL

Having spent the past decade working for an electric utility, directly involved in the maintenance and construction of gas-fired electrical generation and solar/wind/energy storage I am in complete agreement with Tony Seba. The manpower, material & fuel costs of fossil fuel generated power is staggering. Give me a bottle of Windex; and I’ll maintain your solar system.

View attachment 643542

I spent years working in maintenance at the above plant. I apologize for the Captain Obvious moment, but cleaning solar panels from time to time just makes a helluva lot more sense.

Contrast the above plant with Solar Plant below.

View attachment 643545
Great I already hear the push back in my head. "All those jobs lost because of Solar power is killing the American dream".
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
11,579
15,563
NC
Assuming you are correct,


I mean, the balance sheet is public info- you can check it yourself. And probably should have before claiming Tesla had 20 billion cash and no debt.

Elon are winning more than $1B in bitcoin just only 1 month and more to come,

Until or unless they sell BTC they haven't "won" anything.

Just like stock- it's not a gain or a loss until you sell it.

It's unclear right now what the long-term plan is regarding their BTC purchase, other than a vague statement they did it for "more flexibility to further diversify and maximize returns on our cash."

That could mean as an inflation hedge, so they just sit on the BTC long term.

It could mean they do an ARK thing where they have a rough % in mind for holdings, and take profits when the price puts it above that limit.

It could mean any number of things- but until/unless they sell there's no profit.



Tesla will be at least $900-$1000/share at the end of 2021. Another capital raise will erase that $7.7B easily


...uh... the 7.7B is the extra cash they have on hand, above their ~12.1 billion in debt.

Again, roughly 19.8 billion in cash/cash equivalents.... roughly 12.1 billion of debt. Net 7.7 billion "extra" cash/cash equivalent on hand.


It's pretty clear Tesla does not consider their existing debt a problem, or they could've paid it off with cash on hand. (they DID pay some of it off early, but not the rest)

They've also said they can't find any way to spend more money usefully right now- so I'm not sure what yet ANOTHER cap raise would do for them.

It's possible once the kinks are worked out of 4680 production at Kato you see a more significant spending of cash as batteries remain their greatest bottleneck.... (and finding enough good engineering talent for the increasing # of factories seems the next one)
 

Hock1

Member
Jan 21, 2017
677
6,334
Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
You learned the wrong lesson. The proper lesson is that taxes are a distraction, and should be ignored if they might influence you to make a poor investing decision.
Disagree. All things considered, he learned the right lesson. It's the only one that NEEDS to be learned. Most everyone has to learn for themselves that this is true, sometimes painfully.
 

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
8,688
107,835
Canada
Yeah........pretty obvious within the first hour of trading there's clear intent to make sure TSLA doesn't get even close to breaking 700. We're barely 1X the Nasdaq now

Gotta love how MM's couldn't be bothered help the stock out on the big down weeks when it comes to max pain.......but when the stock is rebounding they sure seem to have no issues having the ability to cap and drop the stock back down to max pain. We got 1 whole day of TSLA outperforming it's multiple......now back to massively underperforming

Not just MMs affecting the SP right now: tomorrow's Close is the S&P 500 "Reference Date" for the March quarterly rebalancing:

S&P U.S. Indices Methodology (January 2021) p.14 Weighting:
  • The indices are reset to equal weight quarterly after the close of business on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
  • The reference date for weighting is the second Friday of the reweighting month and changes are effective after the close of the following Friday using prices as of the reweighting reference date, and membership, shares outstanding, and IWFs as of the reweighting effective date.

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-us-indices.pdf

TSLA had a SP of $695.00 at the S&P inclusion on Dec 18, 2020. If TSLA varies substantially from that, and more specifically, substantially differing vs relative change of other S&P 500 components, then large index funds will adjust their stock holdings accordingly.

I'm just glad 420 isn't in play... :p

Cheers!
 
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StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
8,933
67,219
Maple Falls, WA
Will it really be the end though. Germany is the economic motor of the EU. Is it really possible to imagine VAG, Mercedes, BMW, Audi going out of business? "Too big to fail"?
I've reconsidered my previous belief that most of the legacy automakers will go bankrupt. A very rough patch to be sure. But they don't need to outrun TESLA merely to survive, they only need to make more desirable EV's compared to ICE vehicles and be able to do it at a profit (eventually). It's like the old joke that you don't need to outrun the bear to survive, you just need to outrun your slowest companion. The funding to get them through this difficult time could be investor's (given their current willingness to invest in anything EV) and/or governments, the source of funding depending upon the level of capital liquidity in private markets. Of course, if the overall economy doesn't stay healthy this won't work.

Previously, I had assumed investors would not step up to the plate to bail out incumbents with poor financials but that might not be the case if the incumbents can successfully position their capital raises as an investment in the electric future.
 

lascavarian

Active Member
Jul 27, 2017
1,050
5,399
usa
What am i missing here? Is it just that they will have soo many batteries being made by the time the truck comes out, that the price of the batteries drops significantly-- 25 to 50%?
The cast alloy under-structure, exoskeleton (no expensive paint), improved wiring (maybe), efficient data processing and cheaper structural batteries will likely result in a lighter (million mile) vehicle that is easier and faster to manufacture. If the cast alloy/exoskeleton combo delivers on its promise, it will be immensely popular and deliverable in large numbers. Add in FSD and demand will stay beyond battery production for quite a time IMO.
 

Cosmacelf

Well-Known Member
Mar 6, 2013
8,504
20,414
San Diego
So there is no way to cancel out short term cap gain of say, 25k by taking 25k loss somehow? I’ll be paying tax on 25k regardless of what stock does in future? If price goes up to getting my money back, I’ll still owe tax on 25k. See my situation? I was just thinking of using share selector on schwab and selling the really high price shares to get my average down. I already goofed once and have 10 shares with higher cost basis due to one wash sale, so I don’t want to sell those because I think I lose the benefit of that adjustment. Does my scenario make sense? Load up a months worth of buying shares now, then sell shares of the higher price lot to take the loss to cancel out previous short term cap gain of 25k. After 30 days, reinvest the sold high price share proceeds? Smart yes? Or dumb ? Or both? Not seeking advice just opinions :)

Paying taxes isn’t the end of the world. Better that than make a bad trade. If you have other stock you want to sell at a loss, then you can offset the cap gains. Maybe sell some other laggard, and buy something else that you like better.
 

StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
8,933
67,219
Maple Falls, WA
its not just about the car. VAG is tainted by dieselgate, and has no supercharger network. When an ID3 costs what a model 3 costs, who the hell buys an ID3?
Also, does the ID3 have best in class autonomy?
You need to consider that VW's EV's are not competing with Tesla, they only need to better than 95% of the market that is ICE. Once you have price parity, that's a very low bar indeed.
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
6,800
24,443
Philadelphia, PA
Will it really be the end though. Germany is the economic motor of the EU. Is it really possible to imagine VAG, Mercedes, BMW, Audi going out of business? "Too big to fail"?
It would be helpful to flip back a few years and see how Germany handled the disruption of their energy grids by solar/wind electricity supply crossing a critical threshold and squashing utilities. Covered extensively in the Energy/Environment/Policy forum.

All three major electric utilities instantly went bankrupt as solar crossed about 4% of total supply. Solar ate away peak demand by supplying up to 50% of peak demand and ruined the profit schemes of all other energy producers. The only reason it hasn't happened in the US is corruption. Here we value corporate profits of supposedly "public utilities" far above the needs of consumers, in Germany it is often the opposite.

Not only did the German gov't force each of the utilities into bankruptcy rather than bail them out or change the rules, they also wouldn't let them split off their worst assets into separate entities. They forced entire enterprises to go through bankruptcy for 2-3 years and come out the other end as proper grid services providers and only then did they let them separate into production units and grid management units.

This I think is why we're not likely to see any desperation from the major German car manufacturers. It will be painful to fall so far behind and go through bankruptcy, but the DE gov't(on behalf of the autoworkers) won't let these entities die off. If I had to guess.....most will remain resistant to change, then spend a year or two in bankruptcy, before emerging as varyingly successful EV companies probably worth far less than today.

We in the US rightfully see GM as a walking corpse. They simply have no avenue to success. They will get bailed out by the US gov't, but not in any way that creates a more sustainable business model or forces them to service the demands of the marketplace. God forbid.
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
6,800
24,443
Philadelphia, PA
You need to consider that VW's EV's are not competing with Tesla, they only need to better than 95% of the market that is ICE. Once you have price parity, that's a very low bar indeed.
It's so obvious what they need to do, and astounding it wasn't the clear decision coming out of Dieselgate. They need to make the next "people's car". A $20k non-autonomous EV with 240 miles of range. A reimagination of the Beetle. They'd sell like liters of pilsner.
 

UncaNed

Supporting Member
Apr 8, 2015
1,407
5,128
East coast
You learned the wrong lesson. The proper lesson is that taxes are a distraction, and should be ignored if they might influence you to make a poor investing decision.
Perhaps there is much more truth to this than I ever would have thought. It's still worth trying a little to drag things out to over 366 days for US long term capital gains purposes.

And yes, most of my TSLA is in my Roth.
 
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lascavarian

Active Member
Jul 27, 2017
1,050
5,399
usa
Previously, I had assumed investors would not step up to the plate to bail out incumbents with poor financials but that might not be the case if the incumbents can successfully position their capital raises as an investment in the electric future.

What if instead of selling retail EV products in a difficult competitive market , they made the leap directly to Transportation as a Service (TAAS). This avoids competition with their legacy ICE products on the showroom floor and they can transition their dealer network as support services for their EV TAAS fleet.

If your going to make a leap, go big!
 

JustMe

Member
Nov 21, 2016
668
7,854
Conroe
It's so obvious what they need to do, and astounding it wasn't the clear decision coming out of Dieselgate. They need to make the next "people's car". A $20k non-autonomous EV with 240 miles of range. A reimagination of the Beetle. They'd sell like liters of pilsner.
If they could do this it would obliterate/Osborne their ICE business, leaving them with a bloated workforce that they cannot downsize and untold billions in stranded assets. This is the dilemma the traditional OEMs face, whether they recognize it or not.
 

scaesare

Well-Known Member
Mar 14, 2013
8,277
13,340
NoVA
Every time Gordo posts some more BS I'm going to reply to him with this

View attachment 643519
My response:
1615478758478.png
 

lafrisbee

Active Member
Dec 13, 2019
1,678
5,401
Indialantic FL
My biggest TSLA screw up was due to wash sale rules. Think back to thanksgiving 2019. Tesla was about to unveil the Cybertruck. I had a pretty good feeling that TSLA was going to dive after the presentation. So I sold a block of Tesla at a slight loss at about $360/share pre split. Sure enough, the price dropped after the Cybertruck unveil. Gotta wait 30 days, just before New Years to buy back though. Well thats when the freaking price went from something like $330 to $850 in less than a month. I never did buy back (I had more TSLA stock, my core holding).

Lesson learned, do not sell TSLA. End of story.
Thank you. That's when I bought my first TSLA shares. Your shares.
Correction: Those shares.
Correction: Don't worry. My shares are being well kept.
 

StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
8,933
67,219
Maple Falls, WA
Disagree. All things considered, he learned the right lesson. It's the only one that NEEDS to be learned. Most everyone has to learn for themselves that this is true, sometimes painfully.

I don't see it that way. It's much better to learn from the entire body of evidence vs. one's painful experiences. The fact that a painful experience tends to drive a learning home in a very effective manner does not change this because the learning might not be a valid one just because it turned out that way one time.

Investors have a tendency to put more weight on learning events that have large impacts on their own finances but, from a first principles perspective, this is not wise. Considering all the evidence equally will result in better performance than weighing personal experiences disproportionally.

That said, I do think the conclusion that tax considerations tend to be given too much weight is true. Tax consequences do need to be considered but they shouldn't be given more weight than they deserve. The reason investors tend to break this rule is because the tax consequences of a decision tends to be very visible (and sometimes a certainty) while the result of an investment decision tend to be unknowable until some time has passed. This leads investors to put too much weight on the tax considerations. It's often better to make the investment and pay the taxes. It really depends upon the level of conviction. This is where investors tend to over-estimate their ability in the short-term. Short-term price movements are largely unknowable (at least with a high level of certainty) and so tax considerations should rightly prevail. But longer-term decisions need to give less weight to the tax considerations.

Summed up and generalized, a trader should trade, taxes be damned, and a an investor should hold. Because holding automatically minimizes taxes. Taken to the final conclusion: Don't trade, hold! :)
 

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