Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MTL_HABS1909]

Cool. A 5% drop for no reason. Is anyone buying or are you waiting to see if it goes back to the $618 level?

Edit: In for a few more at $677. Probably too early but who cares.

 

[Drezil]

Cool. A 5% drop for no reason. Is anyone buying or are you waiting to see if it goes back to the $618 level?

nooo... i sold 3 645-Puts yesterday (rolled up my 595-Puts for extra-cash this week).. If things go wrong i might even have to buy TSLA at $645/Share! That would be a tragedy!

 

[Zero CO2]

I don't think Tesla's Supercharger Network is pricing for a loss - it's all the cars with established legacy free supercharging for life and the continual expansion costs of the network that push it into a small loss. Tesla will continue to operate the network at or near breakeven while continuing to subsidize the expansion of the network and free Supercharging for life cars with new car sales. Tesla production costs are low enough, relative to the competition, that they can to continue to do this and it doesn't add up to much per vehicle.

Additionally, the new sales do not come with free-Supercharging and are growing so rapidly relative to early sales with free charging, they are quickly neutralizing the negative contribution of those who charge for free.

Competing networks are priced to discourage use. And they still don't seem able to maintain the chargers and keep them functional.

All of this adds up to be a stealth net positive for Tesla. Car reviewers will continue to compare non-Tesla EV's to a Tesla while largely ignoring the differences in charging networks. The consumer, meanwhile, will continue to have a magnetic preference for Tesla's, in part, due to the difference in charging networks. Because many new EV buyers feel their "road trip" freedom is threatened by the move to an EV and Tesla's fast-charging network alleviates that fear so much better than the competing networks.

for me the Super charger network made Tesla purchase a no brainer... that was late 2016/early 2017 ... i don't think much has changed in terms of 3rd party chargers ... in fact i would submit it is more confusing with more options (all bad in my experience) .... while at the same time Tesla has increased the value of the SC network over the last 4-5 years and now has as of 4Q report 23,277 connectors at 2,564 stations... the value of the network = 542M.. i think chargepoint has more connectors but not clear on how many are supercharger equivalent...maybe 2000 .... this another area which is actually one of the most important purchase criteria in buying an EV ... i can see a lot of buyers remorse for non-Tesla EV buyers once they have to navigate a long distance trip over chargepoint, blink, ev go , electrify america , volta... all with different apps, cost per kwh, connectors, locations etc....

 

[ZsoZso]

I made the mistake of buying too early this morning at 695. For I while I was proud of myself for catching near-bottom of MMD, but now in hindsight it was not so smart move...

 

[Opus BC fan]

As I see it...
The next few weeks are their best shot for SP suppression for all of 2021.
Of course, I'm buying what I can.

I snagged 4 more at $672.6

 

[Tslynk67]

Anyone remember when Cathie Wood’s new TSLA price target is supposed to be announced? I think it is this Friday. Obviously timelines can change but I think a short-term call options play anticipating a SP rise after the announcement is a good risk:reward. Last time she announced a new price target, the SP went up like 20% (not all of that rise was due to her price target but likely some of it was).

I know there's many folks around these parts holding out on Queen Cathie's pronouncements, but in reality do we thing they will shift the needle? Given that ARK are known for a long time now as the biggest $TSLA bulls, why would a price increase on their side cause anyone to rethink?

Just asking'...

At least one analyst with the correct read of the situation

View attachment 644975

https://twitter.com/x/status/1371850991344218125

Trippin' Tripp - what a legend!

 

[Singuy]

Cool. A 5% drop for no reason. Is anyone buying or are you waiting to see if it goes back to the $618 level?

It's that pesky bond rate. This AM bond started out in the high 1.5s, now it's back to 1.6. QQQ got beaten up in the process.

 

[StealthP3D]

A week ago she said 10 days as it was 'being reviewed' so let's hope that goes well and it is out either this Friday or early next week.

I think it would be good to read through (at least the highlights) of Alex Potters' paper in the meantime as it will most likely be more bullish.

ARK's new report will have the most impact if it comes out today or tomorrow. A surprise is always better than a stale, over-anticipated report. On the other hand, they might be waiting for all this negativity to work it's way out of the share price so their report can begin the momentum upward.

 

[Singuy]

ARK's new report will have the most impact if it comes out today or tomorrow. A surprise is always better than a stale, over-anticipated report. On the other hand, they might be waiting for all this negativity to work it's way out of the share price so their report can begin the momentum upward.

I don't know why everyone thinks ARK's PT has anything to do with the stock? Why would any analyst with skin in the game affect sp with their analysis? Need bears to turn bulls, not bulls to turn bulls.

 

[Tyler34]

I don't know why everyone thinks ARK's PT has anything to do with the stock? Why would any analyst with skin in the game affect sp with their analysis? Need bears to turn bulls, not bulls to turn bulls.

I agree. It's almost as silly as the people who say that once Tesla releases part 2 of the holiday update the stock will go up.

 

[Singuy]

I agree. It's almost as silly as the people who say that once Tesla releases part 2 of the holiday update the stock will go up.

If part 2 of the holiday update has the FSD beta download button then that's something. At least we know there will be revenue recognition from such update, and higher margins from every car sold from that day forward.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

As I see it...
The next few weeks are their best shot for SP suppression for all of 2021.
Of course, I'm buying what I can.

Likewise.

Another 60 more at $691, and then another 100 with a $671 limit order that's active as I type.

And if it drops again by the EOD, we'll buy more

We really need to cut back on this margin use for a SBLOC (for another house), but I can't pass up yet another sale with so much good news coming in the months and years ahead.

Long-term wealth building gets easier once you learn some of the secrets. One is: When the short-term price for a great, disruptive, company's stock is insanely stupid and irrational, you back up the truck and load up.

 

[Artful Dodger]

why would a price increase on their side cause anyone to rethink?

It's that spreadsheet they release along with their new model which gives other analysts the ability to vary underlying assumptions.

This is much like what ARK themselves do with their different scenarios ie: high-functioning EV maker vs. autonomous ride-hailing provider.

It's high-value research, which is made even more convincing by the success of last year's model.

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't know why everyone thinks ARK's PT has anything to do with the stock? Why would any analyst with skin in the game affect sp with their analysis? Need bears to turn bulls, not bulls to turn bulls.

The history of ARK report releases would disagree with you. The release of their reports definitely shows correlation with higher prices. Of course, we all know correlation is not causation and common sense says the "ARK effect" must be declining. But to think what ARK says does not tend to impact the share price would be to ignore recent history. Cathie Wood is a star and people listen to what stars say. She didn't achieve this reputation with a couple of lucky guesses.

 

[Tslynk67]

It's that spreadsheet they release along with their new model which gives other analysts the ability to vary underlying assumptions.

This is much like what ARK themselves do with their different scenarios ie: high-functioning EV maker vs. autonomous ride-hailing provider.

It's high-value research, which is made even more convincing by the success of last year's model.

Cheers!

Don't get me wrong, I agree 100% with the sentiment behind what you're saying, but ARK's existing analysis is already top-notch, do we really think there would be something revolutionary included that might inspire Gordo to up his PT to $2000 and slap a buy-rating on the stock?

I'd like to believe, trust me, but I'm not convinced

Even worse, perhaps, is when you get parma-bears like BofA and RBC turning bullish, doesn't seem to change things either

Hell, we're even 23% below Adam 'Terminator' Jonas' PT, who can this possibly be?

 

[capster]

Jerome's should also get another title - like Highway Star

View attachment 644968

Yeah, I’d be surprised if it were a demotion. My take:

Next Jerome ramps the heavy trucks. That will take his entire attention for a bit.

Then he either moves up so that both trucks and auto are under him or he ramps something else such as aircraft, ships/boats, ...

 

[Tslynk67]

Yeah, I’d be surprised if it were a demotion. My take:

Next Jerome ramps the heavy trucks. That will take his entire attention for a bit.

Then he either moves up so that both trucks and auto are under him or he ramps something else such as aircraft, ships/boats, ...

Jerome has been the VP of automotive for what, a couple of years now? Maybe he, and Elon, felt he'd accomplished what was needed and more time there wouldn't be worthwhile?

I can imagine evolving the trucking business would be pretty intense, deserving full attention

Like other here, I'm super excited about the semi and I think it will bring massive environmental benefits very quickly indeed, shouldn't be underestimated

 

[StealthP3D]

Don't get me wrong, I agree 100% with the sentiment behind what you're saying, but ARK's existing analysis is already top-notch, do we really think there would be something revolutionary included that might inspire Gordo to up his PT to $2000 and slap a buy-rating on the stock?

No one cares about Gordo. Except for CNBC.

Like I said, no one cares about Gordo.

 

[Curt Renz]

Anyone remember when Cathie Wood’s new TSLA price target is supposed to be announced? I think it is this Friday. Obviously timelines can change but I think a short-term call options play anticipating a SP rise after the announcement is a good risk:reward. Last time she announced a new price target, the SP went up like 20% (not all of that rise was due to her price target but likely some of it was).

Interest rates are a huge consideration in determining the net present value of a growth stock. She may have already come up with numbers for all other factors, and could be waiting for interest rates to stabilize before plugging current and estimated future rates into her algorithm.

 

[buttershrimp]

Buttershrimp PT is 680 at close today +/- 100