Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

Anyone remember when Cathie Wood’s new TSLA price target is supposed to be announced? I think it is this Friday. Obviously timelines can change but I think a short-term call options play anticipating a SP rise after the announcement is a good risk:reward. Last time she announced a new price target, the SP went up like 20% (not all of that rise was due to her price target but likely some of it was).

My bet it happens in sync with the "Download BETA" button appearing.

 

[buttershrimp]

Jerome has been the VP of automotive for what, a couple of years now? Maybe he, and Elon, felt he'd accomplished what was needed and more time there wouldn't be worthwhile?

I can imagine evolving the trucking business would be pretty intense, deserving full attention

Like other here, I'm super excited about the semi and I think it will bring massive environmental benefits very quickly indeed, shouldn't be underestimated

To me if Jerome is demoted, the scenario I imagine is him green lighting the shutdown of the factory line with part shortage without Elon knowing. Far fetched, but what else would it be? The fire? Jerome! You left your curling iron on! Go work on trucks dude.

 

[Curt Renz]

No one cares about Gordo. Except for CNBC.

Like I said, no one cares about Gordo.

CNBC and Benzinga.

 

[CorneliusXX]

As I see it...
The next few weeks are their best shot for SP suppression for all of 2021.
Of course, I'm buying what I can.

I snagged 4 more at $672.6

I think there's probably a bit more time to suppress the stock - Tesla is currently in hard core build mode with 2 factories going up (3 if you count GigaShanghai's expansion) and the limited S/X deliveries - which probably won't make for a record breaking quarterly earnings. Suppression could well be similar to 2019 and last into mid year. But once we start seeing production from Austin/Berlin and all the new S/X plaid + reviews in the back half of the year it's going to be difficult for FUD to get any purchase.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 12 minutes ago: Model Y - Berlin

Excerpt:

Now a Twitter account that follows Gigafactory Berlin progress shared a picture of multiple Model Y castings sitting outside the factory.

The picture shows 8 vehicle bodies wrapped in plastic, with the plastic seemingly blown off of one, revealing the Model Y.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This is the problem with posting nonsense Twitter opinions from people who know far less than posters here. There is ZERO chance Jerome was "demoted", this isn't General Motors. If either he or Elon had a problem with one another, he'd be gone. If he needed a break, he sure as *sugar* wouldn't jump into the next area Elon plans to ramp.

Value Analyst came here a few years ago openly admitting he knew nothing about Tesla and wanted to "ramp up his knowledge" before embarking on a Twitter adventure. 6 months later people here were posting his Tweets as if he had some kind of insight. I don't get the obsession with people who are clearly just looking for attention.

 

[Artful Dodger]

My bet it happens in sync with the "Download BETA" button appearing.

I don't think so. There are only 2 beta releases in play right now, v8.2 which was last week (doubling the size of the beta test group) and v8.3 which Elon has now said will likely be released in April.

So most likely the 'Download Beta' button becomes available when v8.3 is released, again likely next month. This is the release that Elon said will 10x the number of beta testers, which would quite likely result in an overwhelming number of service requests to install the beta. That's what the 'button' solves.

 

[GOVA]

After my last weekend driving around town I noticed staggering increase in Tesla cars on the road (chi-western burbs). It really shows what is going on. Tools like Gordo don't matter anymore. I am still very surprised that many don't see the difference between tools and genuine humans.

I'd said that before, once the Tesla Semis hit the roads in numbers, you'll know when your TSLA stock money went.

 

[Christine69420]

Benzinga - 12 minutes ago: Model Y - Berlin

Excerpt:

Now a Twitter account that follows Gigafactory Berlin progress shared a picture of multiple Model Y castings sitting outside the factory.

The picture shows 8 vehicle bodies wrapped in plastic, with the plastic seemingly blown off of one, revealing the Model Y.

These have been standing there wrapped for many weeks.

Theory back when they showed up was that they would be used to calibrate the paint shop equipment ahead of local car production.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Benzinga - 12 minutes ago: Model Y - Berlin

Excerpt:

Now a Twitter account that follows Gigafactory Berlin progress shared a picture of multiple Model Y castings sitting outside the factory.

The picture shows 8 vehicle bodies wrapped in plastic, with the plastic seemingly blown off of one, revealing the Model Y.

Let's be clear that these Bodies-in-White where almost certainly stamped and welded at Fremont then shipped to Berlin in order to begin early testing of the new paint shop. This is a critical path item for Giga Berlin, since its a new technology paintshop. More here:

Tesla Giga Berlin closes in on trial runs as new Model Y bodies are spotted on site | teslarati.com

Cheers!

 

[Buckminster]

Is it possible that Jerome is also looking after 4680s in addition? They are critical to Semis.

This would free up Drew to backfill Jerome. Drew is more likely to succeed Elon and would need to fulfil that role for a few years first.

 

[Curt Renz]

The Ford F-150 Police Pickup is not an EV. Can you imagine Tesla Cybertrucks eventually becoming the dominant police vehicles?

Benzinga - hour ago: Ford Police Pickup Truck

Excerpt:

Ford first introduced the F-150 line for police in 2017, and the new model includes an improved 120 mph top speed and automatic four-wheel-drive mode with torque-on-demand transfer case to enable a smooth transition to off-road capability.

 

[Singuy]

I don't think so. There are only 2 beta releases in play right now, v8.2 which was last week (doubling the size of the beta test group) and v8.3 which Elon has now said will likely be released in April.

So most likely the 'Download Beta' button becomes available when v8.3 is released, again likely next month. This is the release that Elon said will 10x the number of beta testers, which would quite likely result in an overwhelming number of service requests to install the beta. That's what the 'button' solves.

He didn't say 8.3 in April. Didn't he say switching to all vision in April? According to Elon, that step change is suppose to be V9. 8.3 is just suppose to have thousands of improvements...but it's still not all vision based.

 

[hobbes]

No one cares about Gordo. Except for CNBC.

Like I said, no one cares about Gordo.

How come some here seem to be constantly talking about him then? Not looking at anyone in particular ..

 

[Artful Dodger]

Is it possible that Jerome is also looking after 4680s in addition? They are critical to Semis.

This would free up Drew to backfill Jerome. Drew is more likely to succeed Elon and would need to fulfil that role for a few years first.

First 4680s are NOT critical to Semi, which is bty agnostic. Best current speculation is that a pilot production line will be operating at Giga Nevada by Summer, and these could reasonably use 2170s (it's less reasonable to presume Panasonic could begin 4680 production there by Summer).

When Semi development is ready for the next step, Giga Texas will host to volume production, along with the 4680 bty cell lines to support production.

Finally, Elon has stated that 4680 cells from Fremont/Kato Rd will initially be used to support Model Y production at Giga Berlin. This will be necessary through the end of 2021 since they haven't applied for a permit to build the bty cell shop yet. A single 10GWh/yr line in Fremont would support about 50K Models Y at Berlin in H2 2021 (allowing time to ramp their other processes).

Finally, Plaid+ S/X in Fremont is planned for near the end of Q4 2021 / beginning of Q1 2022. That requires a supply of 4680 cells, which is a solid tell that Tesla is planning to use Kato Rd cells at Fremont by then, and that they'll have local 4680 cell production in Berlin also.

TL;dr don't worry, be happy.

Cheers!

 

[hobbes]

Benzinga - 12 minutes ago: Model Y - Berlin

Excerpt:

Now a Twitter account that follows Gigafactory Berlin progress shared a picture of multiple Model Y castings sitting outside the factory.

The picture shows 8 vehicle bodies wrapped in plastic, with the plastic seemingly blown off of one, revealing the Model Y.

Have been there since December:

Now that the storm blew off the wrap it becomes big news ...

 

[Stars aligned]

I think there's probably a bit more time to suppress the stock - Tesla is currently in hard core build mode with 2 factories going up (3 if you count GigaShanghai's expansion) and the limited S/X deliveries - which probably won't make for a record breaking quarterly earnings. Suppression could well be similar to 2019 and last into mid year. But once we start seeing production from Austin/Berlin and all the new S/X plaid + reviews in the back half of the year it's going to be difficult for FUD to get any purchase.

And then count in the macros in form of rising interest rates impact on net present value. Also, chip shortages may further slow down growth in the next months. We may not yet have seen this years lows and it's not worth to hold the breath in anticipation of soonish new highs.

There is a lot of hope that Cathie's updated analysis gives the share price a new boost. What if her model shows a slowdown due to the headwinds? Would she still release it?

 

[jerry33]

Free charging, energy arbitrage through batteries + coffee & cake shop/burgers/small retail etc

That helps the property owner's profits, not the charging network's profits.

 

[Knightshade]

First 4680s are NOT critical to Semi, which is bty agnostic. Best current speculation is that a pilot production line will be operating at Giga Nevada by Summer, and these could resonably use 2170s (it's less reasonable to presume Panasonic could begin 4680 production there by Summer).

Sooner than summer per the GFNV employee who posted about it. "Early Q2" using 2170s were his exact specifics.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Frankly, how?

Even if you charge for 12 hours with your car, that's only 48 miles at a time. That's not even factoring any range loss from things like AC or heating or bad driving habits or traffic, or if you occasionally have to go further than typical like if a relative was visiting, or there was a child's soccer match, etc.

I had a older 2015 Model S that I rented when I was visiting my family. I charged at my sister's place, who only had a 120v outlet for me to use. There was no Supercharger near where I was, nor any feasible level 2 charger, not even a pay as you go one. It was a struggle to keep the charge, even if I only had the car a week, and I didn't commute to work at all during that time. It's one of the reasons I was so set to get a place here in Hawaii where I could install a Tesla charger.

Disagree. I charge at 110V (with a cheap extension cable!) at our cottage in the winter (-15° C / 5° F) and I can get 50% of the battery back over the weekend. Perfectly workable.