Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[WVCS]

The human civilization has evolved around obtaining and utilizing energy. The hunter-gatherer stage humans were not much different from today's chickens or monkeys. Then came the age of agriculture and domesticated animals, probably 10x human's ability to command energy.

Then the large scale use of fossil fuels, first coal, then petro, and natural gas made industrial revolutions possible. 300+ years of human history with easier and cheaper energy from fossil fuels, generation after generation have hallucinated the human race collectively, unconsciously, and/or conveniently ignore the very source of fossil fuel energy, and to the same or even more extent, its negative impacts on all aspects of human lives and very much likely if the trajectory weren't be changed fast enough, the continuation of the earth as it has been. It takes time to unwind that.

Now the technology to source the original energy easier, cheaper and simultaneously much cleaner than fossil fuels has matured. The use of "new" energy in large scale starts, very slowly at T+00:00, seemingly not moving at all, but keeps accelerating and very soon, will reach the escape velocity of no return. The future of limitless energy as envisioned by Tony Seba is only one or two decades away. The number I look forward to is 3 - 3 TWh from Tesla.

Even more exciting is that, for the first time, human race is transitioning from energy-dominant evolution to intelligence-dominant evolution, or probably more aptly, from carbon based human beings to carbon-silicon based superintelligent beings.

There will one or two organizations that will win out in both: first the old one, making energy availability trivial (limitless energy at will), then superintelligence. I can only hope it won't turn into evil with so much power, whoever/whatever it would be.

Watching $TSLA SP fluctuating up and down is like the time distortion of human perception during high stress (On time distortion under stress, pdf) - every single tick changes our sense one way or another. But if we zoom out to the scale of ten years, we see a curve trending right and up, with a few spikes and dips dotting along.

Zooming out is an effective way to relax and enjoy the show.

Nice informative commentary. You provide two links to articles on distortion of time perception during stress; it turns out they are links to two different articles. The one that is downloadable ("pdf" in your note) talks about effects of stress but does not discuss time distortion at all. The "on time distortion under stress" link is to a site where the article is behind a paywall. Is there a way to access that article at a site without a paywall?

 

[2daMoon]

Yeah guys, just remember that we are just a championship teamoff to a slow start, we are nothing like those New York Jets/Nikola

Thanks for the pep talk. I had reached a point of thinking the whole affair was becoming completely hopless.

 

[Phobi]

Is there a lifetime season ticket pass? I’d reserve a burial plot on the teams grounds if possible lol (bury me under a solar farm panel if it helps! )

Long and strong.

 

[Beltsbear]

Not trying to drive the conversation OT so just a quick update on my 3
Insurance is calling it totalled and is offering me either
- $18K and the car back as is
Or
- $58K and no car back

I paid cash and have no outstanding liens.
Honestly pretty reasonable options. Gonna sleep on it. Lusting after my Plaid X and considering just taking the 58K and throwing it on the Xlines.
I have a sneaking suspicion that the 3 is actually more fun to drive than any X due to ground clearance, but ground clearance is exactly what screwed me here in the ROCKY Mointains.

Take the $58k. You might find your totalled car on the auction site, and you know more about it then the other bidders. You can bid on it if it is going cheap. But they are implying it is worth $40k.

 

[FireMedic]

I needed a laugh today.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1372766765600501770

 

[Discoducky]

I'm not huge into technicals, but I'm listening to this podcast and it is talking about the Elliot Wave Theory and I think we are in this part of the cycle where hopefully tomorrow finds the end of leg #2, but since it's a quad witching tomorrow....

 

[S3XY]

Tesla, TSLA, Beer & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable​

Should we have Beer in the forum title? ... I vote YES.

Lord knows the SP hops enough to justify it.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I'm not huge into technicals, but I'm listening to this podcast and it is talking about the Elliot Wave Theory and I think we are in this part of the cycle where hopefully tomorrow finds the end of leg #2, but since it's a quad witching tomorrow....

View attachment 645846

So what if we are at B and heading towards C? The run up to 900 could have been the run to 5...

 

[Norwalk79]

LATEST Analysis on Tesla Smear Campaign
I realize that VW with Russia (relies on oil as income) are doing the classic smearing campaign, amplify and spread bad news “VIOLENT CRASH” and NHTSA investigations to tell uninformed public about it’s a danger to drive a Tesla with AutoPilot and to help Tesla shorts to lower Tesla share price. Their intention is to kill both Tesla sales, its maturing FSD and bring down Tesla stock price.

I will tell you that they will fail and will quit when Tesla keep delivering excellent sales and Tesla is successful with the FSD subscription with 2021 delivery and earning on Jan 27th 2022. Tesla customers are the smartest car buyers, doing research and ask current Tesla owners before buying so they will not be influenced by Violent Crash news. Tesla already clarified that Tesla owner is the one responsible for their driving, not the assistance accessory Autopilot/FSD. That’s why Elon revoked beta FSD if drivers not paying attention and intervene if needed. NHTSA did not publish any investigation result because the driver is the only one responsible for his car driving, NOT the assistance Autopilot accessory. When you use a cruise control and it did not slow down to hit the car in front, who is responsible? Only retarded persons will try to convince police that their driving assistance package (Autopilot) is to blame for the accident or traffic violation. Officer, I set my cruise control at 65mph but it keeps cruising at 80mph, please do not write me a ticket!!!! Mommy come help me!!!!

The smearing campaign only to help Tesla shorts to bring down Tesla stock price, but it is already establish its bottom at $650. People will find below $650 is a bargain and will jump in to squeeze the shorts. As I look at the VW stock price, often cited as VWAGY:
VOLKSWAGEN AG (VWAGY) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance

It lost $-6.38 (-15%) close at $35.95, Avg. volume 0.773M while Tesla Avg. volume is 40M at its lowest close at $653 with 2 heavy storms of “Violent Crash” and “NHTSA Investigation”. Tesla has $2500 PT by Gen Munster, $3000 by Wedbush Dan Ives in the next 3 yr, and $7000 by Cathie Wood.
So VW is bragging maximum everything for 2025 to become 2nd to Tesla. Are you severely retarded?

The high Tesla stock price provides a very solid capital of free cash flow to build more Gigafactories for EV and best performance lowest price 4680 battery. That’s why VW did a lot of bragging during its Power Day and boosting its stock price to become the most valued company in Germany, not Europe. It wishes to play the Tesla way, good luck old-man-never-change (OMNC)
VW has been dishonest in the Dieselgate in the past, so I have doubt on anything VW bragging, read it for yourself: Volkswagen: The scandal explained

A new Tesla short is identified as Lansdowne Partners fund manager Per Lekander having a short position on the Tesla stock and is bullish on German automaker VW (OTC: VWAGY) same as the s..ker Gordon J believing VW can deliver 1M EV in 2021 with its total EV delivery last year 2020 of only 134K vs Tesla’s 500K. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-going-down-2021-investors-084837278.html

Good news for Tesla Model 3: it outsells the Volkswagen ID.3 on its home turf.
Remember that Model 3 is an import in Germany. In Tesla home turf, Tesla has 80% of total all EV registration in USA last year 2020

Wait until Berlin Giga up and running in July this year 2021 and see how Model Y perform. As I read Consumers Report many years, cars from Europe: Land Rover, Jaguar, BMW, Mercedes, VW Beetles, Jetta are at the bottom regarding new car quality and used car reliability.
Tesla Model 3 surges to #2 spot in Germany, outselling VW ID.3

 

[Norwalk79]

Tesla, TSLA, Beer & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable​

Should we have Beer in the forum title? ... I vote YES.

The NHTSA will come to investigate "Violent Beer drinking"

 

[Discoducky]

So what if we are at B and heading towards C? The run up to 900 could have been the run to 5...

We've just been through A to C (hopefully) and have either completed leg #1 (hopefully) or will soon. I'm looking for support at 650 tomorrow or at worst 618 before buying some calls or selling puts for April 2nd.

 

[EVWatcher]

We've just been through A to C (hopefully) and have either completed leg #1 (hopefully) or will soon. I'm looking for support at 650 tomorrow or at worst 618 before buying some calls or selling puts for April 2nd.

Futures a whipping around wildly

 

[insaneoctane]

Wow, so they think the salvage value of the vehicle is $40k, and that the repairs would cost more than $40k? Wow...

So why would a total battery pack replacement be anywhere close to $40K?

 

[Lycanthrope]

This is a very real impact from climate change. Hops in particular are sensitive to climate, nearly as much as grapes. Sure you can make beer with just grain but you won't enjoy it.

I'm a pacifist myself, though I dabble in being a jerk here and there. That said, if beer, coffee, and wine become impossible to source or just cost prohibitive, I will fully support any climate denier being given the Marie Antoinette treatment. I'm not willing to deal with people under forced sobriety.

Wow, I've long been concerned about climate change, but is becoming serious! Can someone give Greta a call, that girl needs to get on it again!

 

[Lycanthrope]

Why don't you start a couch cleaning service in the neighbourhood. That way you can collect some money even if the couch is empty

BTW, I did buy some today but again too high at $673. I need to learn to aim my orders lower and/or have more patience

Right now you can stop watching the $TSLA ticker and tune into the US 10 Year Treasury - if that's heading down, set your buy orders lower, simple as that, all rationality is out of the window for the moment

The good news is, that the bounce-back will be even more severe, as we saw last week with the +20% day

 

[Lycanthrope]

Tesla, TSLA, Beer & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable​

Should we have Beer in the forum title? ... I vote YES.

Thought this was already the case...

 

[Lycanthrope]

What are your thoughts for next week?

Cc's at 750 and 800?

Puts at 620 and 650? Buy or sell?

Next weeks chart is currently very clear - "thall shalt not pass $700", but TBH I think all bets are off for the moment until this 10Y thing settles

My strategy at this time is to sell weeklies at relatively safe looking strikes. Practically speaking, I wait until Monday, maybe Tuesday, as we do often see bounce-backs after the Friday shenanigans. Then I'll place some sells. Of course this could reverse at any time, and really hard, but with the bond business, the MM's protecting certain strikes, the rotation out of tech, the high-level of FUD, unless we do get a reversal, you can feel relatively OK

Note that I don't have a roll option with my broker, so if I go all-in on cc's then it's difficult for me to roll them up, in case of a major upside. In this case I try to pick a strike that I'm happy with in case the shares get called away and where I think I can aggressively sell puts to a) make even more money, b) rebuy at a similar strike

As stated before and elsewhere, I'd strongly recommend not selling puts or calls with expired dates after the P&D - there's absolutely no way to predict anything with regards to that, even a healthy beat on deliveries and profits could still see the stock drop, we've seen this many times now

If I had loads of spare cash then I might be tempted to buy a few calls to play the P&D, but that's no better than playing the horses

BTW, as I absolutely need cash out of my account for the ongoing house business, I am selling cc's against ALL my portfolio - right now that's 31 contracts I can write, but this gives the luxury that I can target very low premiums and still get a nice stream of cash. I'll be looking for strikes just above the call-walls, $702.50 is interesting, $725, $755, etc., depending on how today and Today pans-out

*** for those not familiar with selling calls, be aware that your shares can be called-away at any time before the expiry date, regardless of the stock price, and what if a "leaked" Elon mail gets published about record deliveries popping the stock 10% and above your strike? This is the risk of selling covered calls against common shares ***

 

[jerry33]

So why would a total battery pack replacement be anywhere close to $40K?

The insurance company hasn't updated prices since 2013?

 

[Unpilot]

Macro's are green....beer....I feel we might break out of the 650/700 today....beer.
My mountain conquering skills are growing.....beer.

The fact of the matter is...I like beer.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Analyst Predicts $25K Tesla Could Bring About Even Cheaper $5K EV

The reasoning behind the thinking is that high production volumes bring costs down and the upcoming affordable Tesla should see production skyrocket.

insideevs.com

TLDR: Adam Jonas predicts sub $5k Ev costing about $3k after the model 2.

The interesting part of this to me is that we are seeing a mainstream analyst acknowledge the impact of Tesla’s “machine that builds the machine” / manufacturing prowess.


“According to Adam Jonas, who is a Morgan Stanley analyst, the cheap Tesla announces the arrival of an even more affordable EV, a sub-$5,000 EV, one that would eventually end up costing around $3,000. Jonas doesn’t provide a clear time frame as to when this super-affordable EV would hit the market, although he...”