Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UkNorthampton]

I refuse to buy the notion that the China news is holding TSLA down. One must be stupid to think not allowing an autonomous mobile camera crew on military bases is something out of the ordinary.

FUD > Algos > Momentum > Repeat?

It does break out eventually, I can only guess how, but mostly demand.

Short-term fear-induced irrational voting, long term rational weighing

 

[Artful Dodger]

I refuse to buy the notion that the China news is holding TSLA down. One must be stupid to think not allowing an autonomous mobile camera crew on military bases is something out of the ordinary.

Indeed, you can't drive around U.S. military bases with a dash cam either. Neither can Google 'Street view' take pictures at the U.S. Border. Nor does Homeland security allow 'certain' pictures of the Golden Gate Bridge:

Bay Area Photographer Facing Action After Taking Photo of Golden Gate Bridge From 'Illegal Angle'

A Bay Area photographer is facing legal trouble for posting a composited picture of the Golden Gate Bridge with the blood moon, which was taken from an “illegal angle.” The Bridge District claims the angle shows that the photographer must have trespassed into a restricted area in order to get...

fstoppers.com

TL;dr this is a BOO! FUD story engineered to frighten the Plebeians.
.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Max pain?

Is it $650 by any chance. SP seems to be sticking around there now.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Is it $650 by any chance. SP seems to be sticking around there now.

Max pain was $645 this morning at 7:00 a.m. EDT (coincidence?)

 

[elasalle]

Is it $650 by any chance. SP seems to be sticking around there now.

Max pain is showing as 640. Stock Option Max Pain
However NAS is recovering right now and US 10 YR is dipping .. could change by EOD though.

 

[22522]

India needs Tesla. India is home to 15 of the top 20 most polluted cities on earth. A Tesla factory might help solve this:

 

[buttershrimp]

Ugh I bought so much more at 640, I’m gonna be living large if this thing goes up to 2000 but let’s not talk about the alternative scenario. Perhaps some billionaire benefactor on the forum will take pity on me bail me out for making them laugh occasionally.... yeah that’s it.... solid backup plan....

 

[UncaNed]

25K car is essentially for China market, to keep competition in check. ( and will slowly be made available in EU, US)

Many other models like Vans, Buses, coupes, convertibles, mowers, tractors etc etc. needed in road map. Hell, we even need more paint options.

AJ says 5K car, I say 50M electric aero plane

5K car - 4wheels and a powerpack -- steering, yoke not provided, drive using your smart phone

What happened to the alien dreadnaught? The concept made perfect sense, a factory of ultra high-speed robots turning basic inputs into cars in the dark at ludicrous speeds? THAT was the way to lower the cost of production for the cheapest economy model to best advance the honorable mission of lord Elon, especially in these troubled times of threats of union resurgence (a different issue in itself).

 

[Tslynk67]

Any educated guesses on where this will be pinned on triple witching day?

Shocking, I know, but $650...

 

[elasalle]

What happened to the alien dreadnaught? The concept made perfect sense, a factory of ultra high-speed robots turning basic inputs into cars in the dark at ludicrous speeds? THAT was the way to lower the cost of production for the cheapest economy model to best advance the honorable mission of lord Elon, especially in these troubled times of threats of union resurgence (a different issue in itself).

If cars sell at 5K, (the ones drivable in US highways), the whole auto industry will likely collapse.
Let's start with 4 tires at $500. 4.5K left for the car ... itemize the rest ...

 

[MXWing]

Shocking, I know, but $650...

New Max Pain as of this morning is 640.

I had 650 short puts expiring today which I closed for small green. Feel dirty not diamond handing it until the end. We'll see how it goes.

I hope I gave up 100% profit on this for all the other apes here.

 

[lafrisbee]

If cars sell at 5K, (the ones drivable in US highways), the whole auto industry will likely collapse.
Let's start with 4 tires at $500. 4.5K left for the car ... itemize the rest ...

You may laugh but this is being gigapressed at GigaBedrock as I type... (and if you think I am kidding look at the rebate amount)
The article claimed with the rebate you get $2500 back after rebate.

 

[RobStark]

Given the massive leap in VWs share price, and the drop in teslas, I just did some instant research as a UK customer, aiming to spend around £40k. Looking at the Volkswagen ID4 vs the tesla model 3.

Charging network: none versus supercharger network

UK & Ireland 150 kW- 350 kW CCS Charging Network

UK & Ireland 50 kW-350 kW CCS Charging Network

 

[JustMe]

New Max Pain as of this morning is 640.

I had 650 short puts expiring today which I closed for small green. Feel dirty not diamond handing it until the end. We'll see how it goes.

I hope I gave up 100% profit on this for all the other apes here.

Off topic: Ape Together Strong!

GameStop: Reddit users investing in gorilla conservation

 

[Dutchie]

Given the massive leap in VWs share price, and the drop in teslas, I just did some instant research as a UK customer, aiming to spend around £40k. Looking at the Volkswagen ID4 vs the tesla model 3.

The ID4 only has 1 trim option, and is £3k cheaper, but...

1. ID4 0-60 in 8.5 seconds versus 5.3 seconds
2. Range 309 vs 284 (if i'm reading it right so..a bit better).
3. top speed 100mph vs 140
4. Charging network: none versus supercharger network
5. Luggage 543l versus 414l, so better.
6. 12" touchscreen versus 15" touchscreen.

I don't think there is much choice, the model 3 wins flat out IMHO, but I can see how some people would think thus:

• VW is a known, reliable brand
• Higher range is always good
• Every euro/pound/dollar counts, so why spend more?
• More luggage space is good.

So I can see VW doing well if they can market/target the car with great skill. Here is how I think tesla need to fight back:

• REALLY hammer home the convenience of the supercharger network, and how the navigation is built in, and the chargers are so easy to spot and use. It should be front and center on the tesla pages for every car.
• Absolutely stop caring about speed. Sure, plaid+ is a great halo car for testosterone fueled sports car lovers. Not so much for joe/jane who just wants to commute to the office. teslas reputation for fast cars is established now.
• Hammer-home how safe the cars are.

In short, make sure people know teslas are safe, convenient and a breeze to use.

Tesla, thanks to the roadster, the model S, elon being elon, and youtube videos have already locked down the 'teslas are super-fast high tech awesome gadgets'. Thats great, but volkswagen doesn't sell to that market anyway. VW is selling to housewives and schoolteachers, and people who see a car as a tool, not as a toy.

Elon is tony stark, and his fans love him, but he needs to be aware that to sell >1million cars a year you cant sell just to gadget lovers and speed-freaks. Luggage space and convenience and safety are a bigger draw. Otherwise we will continue to see cars like the ID3 and ID4 as technically inferior, but still watch people buy them.

Plain and simple. Your children will push you to go for the Tesla. It is way cooler than a “Volkswagen”

 

[Krugerrand]

Nope, I deliberately did not include them, because at my (imaginary) £40k budget, I couldn't afford them on the tesla model 3, so the fact that they are an option is nice but...

Again to many people right now, thats a gadget. Sure, its a cool gadget. I have AP1 on my S, and I love it. But Volkswagen are not competing for the best gadget, they are selling cars RIGHT NOW to people who might love autopilot but cannot afford it.
Its great and very forward thinking that a model 3 even without autopilot has a HW3 computer and a lot of sensors, but it might be one reason why they still cannot match the ID4 on cost.

Put yourself in the shoes of someone who normally spends £25k on a car and is stretching massively to hit the £40k ID4. They are not going to pay extra for AP/FSD, especially if they only do short city driving to take the kids to school.

I am those shoes. In fact, I’m the shoes that never paid even 25k for a vehicle - like ever. I’m the shoes that bought used cars almost exclusively my entire life and paid over 5k for one. Until Model 3 - fully loaded. About made me barf up my liver.

You’ve erroneously labeled the car a gadget/full of gadgets. It’s not. It’s quite literally the best driving experience that changes how people think about cars even if they’ve never cared a lick about cars before. It flips perspective.

Tesla doesn’t have to do a single thing different to capture more market. They’ll continue to grow organically without needing to cater people who have no interest in leaving their box.

 

[FireMedic]

Plain and simple. Your children will push you to go for the Tesla. It is way cooler than a “Volkswagen”

That’s how I ended up on this forum. My son who was 6 at the time pressured me to test drive a model 3 after he watched a YouTuber dust a Ferrari with one.

A week later, we had ordered our first Tesla. PM3. Two weeks after that I was an investor. he got 100 (post split) shares for his trouble.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1372417059871629314

Bill repeating that Semi deliveries will happen in Q2.

Hopefully that announcement on Q1 earnings(or maybe a surprise note about Semi Q2 production/deliveries in the Q1 P/D report) will cause a significant spark to the stock. I get/know what's going on with the options and 10 yr note but doesn't change the fact that the stock action has been hella weak since that 20% day.

BTW Q2 is going to be an absolute monster quarter. Actual S/X refresh deliveries(with a near 2X revenue multiple on the previous S/X's because most of the deliveries will be Plaid at first), MIC Y close to fully ramped, expanded MIC 3 production, Semi production and deliveries. I'm not counting on it but if V9, subscription, and FSD beta goes wide release, it'll just be icing on the cake.

 

[elasalle]

Pending and prior to Q1 delivery numbers, that can create some buzz ..
.ARK report with new price target
.FSD Beta Download Button

 

[Krugerrand]

Closing out this week I would like to offer my P & D prediction of 200k P and 180k D -
I have been seeing an absolutely massive amount of Model Y's driving around Tampa and think that Tesla is sandbagging the China delivery numbers through leaks.
Looking forward to seeing how close I am!

No. 83,000. People are such slow learners.