Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

Tesla could make it so when a supercharger station is near capacity it becomes Tesla-owners only. This way Tesla owners will never be inconvenienced.

That would also make it far less likely for non-Tesla BEV owners to invest in an adaptor and create a Supercharger account.

If you can't count on the Supercharger being available when you want it how is that better than just going to a public charger?

 

[Mike Smith]

That would also make it far less likely for non-Tesla BEV owners to invest in an adaptor and create a Supercharger account.

If you can't count on the Supercharger being available when you want it how is that better than just going to a public charger?

It's a lot better than not having access to it. Owning a Tesla would definitely be better..

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Tesla Economist has just completed a series on his take for a 2025 price target:

tl;dw : price target of $15,000

I have some quibbles, especially due to production of Model 2 and how that feeds through into robotaxi revenue. It is definitely a bull case, but he presents all his figures and analysis (in previous videos https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMmJ5nBx9ibaBo4LegyQ52w).

 

[Carl Raymond]

Tesla could make it so when a supercharger station is near capacity it becomes Tesla-owners only. This way Tesla owners will never be inconvenienced.

Yeah, na. I considered that too, but dismissed it because it reeks of class division. Just not classy. Tesla only need to publish the stats over time on charging accounts per bay, and keep it consistent.

Can’t wait to hear what thinking bigger/crazier is all about. Opening up the chargers is brilliant, but not huge or crazy, unless there’s more to it.

 

[UltimateX]

How about accessing incentives for supercharger build out. There will be quite some money pots available with the new drive to electric mobility and the need for wide spread super charging availability. Opening up the supercharger network only accelerates the build out. Incentives, easier build permits, a wider customer base and free advertising. I like it.

 

[Christine69420]

Tesla could make it so when a supercharger station is near capacity it becomes Tesla-owners only. This way Tesla owners will never be inconvenienced.

That would also make it far less likely for non-Tesla BEV owners to invest in an adaptor and create a Supercharger account.

If you can't count on the Supercharger being available when you want it how is that better than just going to a public charger?

Non Teslas are already used to this. Where Superchargers have 10-50 stalls other public chargers have 2-8 stalls. I have often charged at Superchargers while observing the queue of EVs lining up to use the public ones. IMHO this is already a good marketing effect for Tesla when the queuing EVs observe the number of free stalls across the parking lot at the Supercharger.

 

[Cult Member]

Yes, "wildly amazing" implies (to me) either a tsnami of 4680 production, or a typhoon of FSD robotaxi's.

The point that most analysts get wrong is likely just wildly underestimating Tesla's total vehicle production ramp over the next 3 years. Could easily see 3M+/yr production rates in that time. And that's before "Model 2", which should be ramping by that time too. So, 3-5M cars/yr run rate by 2024?

One analyst said recently Giga Shanghai prod. will peak at 900k in 2027, then decrease thereafter? Whack-a-doodle.

So, imma call it: "the Production ramp" is the amazing story of the next 3 years, wrt Market-moving info.

Cheers!

I'm expecting an indication for the energy business, that we have missed until today. That could be the hidden growth factor everybody missed.

 

[Nolimits]

Energy of course!

Here's a good article and a few quotes (from July 2020): Elon Musk says Tesla Energy set to be as big as electric vehicle business

CEO Musk said: “I think long term, Tesla Energy will be roughly the same size as Tesla Automotive.

The Tesla boss added: “I can't emphasise enough. Yes, the battery and solar will both be enormous.”



If you believe Musk, and Auto revenue is growing around 50% a year, then how fast will Energy revenue have to grow to catch up in 5-10 years?

And why does the 2025 ARK forecast have ZERO energy revenue in it?”

I believe it was to stay consistent with other analysts who do not have energy in their estimation. If anything, this makes for even powerful story. Can’t wait to see how this plays out next 4years.

My best guess is they will have their bear case (1500) plus energy thus - so at least $2000 SP at 2025. Won’t complain about! If fsd/RT comes to fruition then it’s all bonus!

 

[Tslynk67]

Bottle available internationally Carafe

 

[UncaNed]

I have problems understanding how opening up Superchargers will make "The next 3 years are going to be wildly amazing".

Sure it could help with marketing Tesla cars vs other EVs and bring some revenue. But wildly amazing?

Perhaps I need more coffee.

Yup. But still, I love how in the US Tesla builds out this humongous charging infrastructure without 'gummint help while Biden talks of some sort of subsidy or something to other charging networks to try to get a few more sub-standard charge stations built.

Edit yet again, even! - Mostly it's the sheer win-win-win of this situation and it being totally, exclusively such a deep, deep Tesla moat kind of thing on the levels of charger-building, auto-bid profiting, and Tesla marketing, even if it doesn't make such a huge difference overall. I want to see Tesla strike a deal for no one else can compete with to build charging stations accessible for all auto brands on interstate rest areas.

Edit- Talk of Tesla and bitcoin wallet and Tesla into banking or their own Tesla-bit-currency has me pondering an analogy to the "wooden nickels" of 100 years ago.

 

[cusetownusa]

Tesla employee Bill Wright says there's breaking news. Seems to be something about charging, an adapter, and a new app.

https://twitter.com/BillWri90307793/with_replies

edit: Sounds like they're opening up the Supercharger Network to non-Tesla EV owners:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1374982755583332352

interesting if true. One of the biggest reason for my next car(EV) to be a Tesla is because of the supercharger network. If this is available to all then this theoretically increases my options for cars other than Tesla.

any thoughts on if this happens what it would do to Tesla sales? Unless Tesla provides a CCS adapter, non Tesla’s would have a much bigger charging network.

 

[wnorris]

Bottle available internationally Carafe

Thanks brother...ordered. Not as nice w/o the tequila, but it will do for now.

Let me know when they bring the surf board back. ;-)

 

[WarpedOne]

>> any thoughts on if this happens what it would do to Tesla sales?

It would increase them.

1. Non-teslas will still charge much slower - their owners will get 'first hand' comparison what waiting 15 more minutes means in practice
2. I suspect there will be additional charge for nonteslas - energy will cost the same, but they will also need to pay for occupying the slot - slower charging == longer charging == effectively higher cost of kWh.

 

[Singuy]

Bear market is bear...sigh.

Dow climbs 199 points in late-day rebound led by stocks benefiting from reopening

Stocks that tied to a successful economic reopening such as airlines and cruise line operators led the intraday rebound.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Prunesquallor]

Tesla employee Bill Wright says there's breaking news. Seems to be something about charging, an adapter, and a new app.

https://twitter.com/BillWri90307793/with_replies

edit: Sounds like they're opening up the Supercharger Network to non-Tesla EV owners:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1374982755583332352

Interesting. They'd have to put the circuitry and firmware in the adapter to spoof the SC into thinking it’s the equivalent of a Tesla VIN. I suppose a phone app could replace the nav system route planner and facilitate the pseudo-Tesla account and automatic payments.

I bet that adapter won't be cheap. I wonder if Tesla would make them available to OEMs to bundle with a new BEV?

I guess I’m still not seeing the huge upside to Tesla, though. It solves a big problem for their competitors (whether they admit they have it or not), unless they really do charge enough to turn it into a profit-maker.

Another possibility would be to cash in on Biden's charger build-out initiative. If SC+adapter = a universal US charger (and a fast one at that), all Tesla has to do is unleash Buffalo, crank out the adapters and pocket whatever incentives the Government is planning. I bet it would be hard for Ionity, et al to compete with that.

 

[JoRoMo]

Bottle available internationally Carafe

Thank you!

 

[Unpilot]

Norway:

Are you trying to Make Gordo's head explode?

 

[EVMeister]

$700 tomorrow?

Oh, silly me. I meant $600.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Are you trying to Make Gordo's head explode?

Someone needs to mark on that plot where GoJo made his demand-is-collapsing pronouncements. It would make a nice little Twitter rejoinder whenever he pokes his head out of his hole.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Norway:

I know a lot of people send this out these days and sure, we should be happy about it, but at the same time we have to mention, that the Netherlands are super weak: