Today I made the biggest mistake yet in my time investing in Tesla, I got involved in a comments section on a FUD piece on seeking alpha. Now I’m full of blind anger the likes of which can power starship.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
asburgers
Sell order in at $8008.5
There will always be a market for "unbiased" 3rd party agencies.
Love the dog, by the way!
uujjj2
Member
SeekingAlpha is an entertainment website, not an investing website. I often cruise SeekingAlpha just to troll the comments section on oil stocks. Turns out the oil investors are some easily triggered snowflakes. It's all for fun. Please don't invest based on SeekingAlpha content.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
So, I don’t remember a time when Elon has speculated as to just how big and/or successful Tesla will be. I ran this tweet by a few family members and it’s clear not everyone reads it the same way. I read it as incredibly bullish. Like, barring some other external/macro factors, this is going to be epic. And while there are many alternate speculative catalysts ATM, this is clearly in the FSD corner. While I know Elon has missed the FSD timeline many times, his current bullish demeanor feels different IMO. This “Pure Vision“ approach really seems to be the real deal and keeps impressing those “in the know”. The timeline is now in weeks/months, not years. Time will tell, but it really feels like it is time to fasten our seatbelts and anyone who wants to be on the ride better hurry up and finalize those ”ticket” purchases.
asburgers
Sell order in at $8008.5
The market sure doesn't respond to his tweets like they used to.
So, I don’t remember a time when Elon has speculated as to just how big and/or successful Tesla will be. I ran this tweet by a few family members and it’s clear not everyone reads it the same way. I read it as incredibly bullish. Like, barring some other external/macro factors, this is going to be epic. And while there are many alternate speculative catalysts ATM, this is clearly in the FSD corner. While I know Elon has missed the FSD timeline many times, his current bullish demeanor feels different IMO. This “Pure Vision“ approach really seems to be the real deal and keeps impressing those “in the know”. The timeline is now in weeks/months, not years. Time will tell, but it really feels like it is time to fasten our seatbelts and anyone who wants to be on the ride better hurry up and finalize those ”ticket” purchases.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Lol, FTFY:
Looking at the chart, I think shortzes will work hard to test the Lower-BB next week. But Uncle Joe is bringing some 'treats' on Wed, Mar 31, 2021 so could be positive overall.
Cheers!
Rob Mauer speculated that "Probably within a few months" was a respond to something else and accidently got linked with Tesla's valuation, hence was deleted.
So, I don’t remember a time when Elon has speculated as to just how big and/or successful Tesla will be. I ran this tweet by a few family members and it’s clear not everyone reads it the same way. I read it as incredibly bullish. Like, barring some other external/macro factors, this is going to be epic. And while there are many alternate speculative catalysts ATM, this is clearly in the FSD corner. While I know Elon has missed the FSD timeline many times, his current bullish demeanor feels different IMO. This “Pure Vision“ approach really seems to be the real deal and keeps impressing those “in the know”. The timeline is now in weeks/months, not years. Time will tell, but it really feels like it is time to fasten our seatbelts and anyone who wants to be on the ride better hurry up and finalize those ”ticket” purchases.
powertoold
Active Member
So Elon deleted it and then didn't retweet the correct response? All seems odd.
Oh, man what a delicious idea
Yeah, that's a real potentially quantifiable statement about the financial future of the company. Elon probably was immediately called by someone and told that you probably want to delete this unless you want S Elon's C on your ass again like before. He has absolutely no respect for the Shortseller Enrichment Commission (and neither do I) but this was the right call.
So, I don’t remember a time when Elon has speculated as to just how big and/or successful Tesla will be. I ran this tweet by a few family members and it’s clear not everyone reads it the same way. I read it as incredibly bullish. Like, barring some other external/macro factors, this is going to be epic. And while there are many alternate speculative catalysts ATM, this is clearly in the FSD corner. While I know Elon has missed the FSD timeline many times, his current bullish demeanor feels different IMO. This “Pure Vision“ approach really seems to be the real deal and keeps impressing those “in the know”. The timeline is now in weeks/months, not years. Time will tell, but it really feels like it is time to fasten our seatbelts and anyone who wants to be on the ride better hurry up and finalize those ”ticket” purchases.
You are making as many, or more assumptions, about Elon's tweet as the labor board did about Elon's tweet about the UWA and stock options.
Maybe he was talking about Apple and Amazon values crashing leaving Tesla as more valuable. Is he not allowed to talk about their stock values?
This is such a stretch that no one in a court of law would buy it. Elon was obviously talking about Tesla.
Elon suggesting Tesla could be the biggest company in a few months... I wonder if they will be unleashing a significant amount of deferred revenue and/or other tax/accounting stuff that could cause Q1 to be insanely profitable.
I had an idea for a moment from your comment.... what if I joined a VW or Toyota website simply to troll them about how much better Tesla is?
Then I realized since I already own a Tesla ... it would be like sneaking out of the house to get away from the my Swedish bikini team girlfriend to go flirt with an overweight employee at the DMV.
OK, let's think about this theme where: FSD release => stock goes up ~3x, and all this happens in a few months
Market is of course forward looking, but how far ???
Let's take the best case scenario:
- Tesla releases FSD soon (within few months) too all who purchased / willing to purchase.
- First of all, we all know for a fact, that upon release it will be officially categorized as level 2 autonomy leaving the human with full responsibility.
- Then we get a long iterative march-of-9s to improve the NN based on feedback gathered from the fleet.
- This iterative process may easily last years before Tesla is confident enough to declare FSD as a level-3 or 4 system taking on liability in case of trouble/crash.
- Robotaxi revenue can come only after regulatory approval, which in turn only comes after Tesla is willing to declare the system level-4 or 5.
A) The uber-bulls (who believe the best case scenario + march-of-9s lasting only a few months so Robotaxi revenue can kick in before the end of this year) have already invested every single available and borrowable penny, so they will not be able to push the stock price any higher upon the release of FSD.
B) Some investors who are skeptical about the technical solution or Tesla's approach to solve the problem and are convinced otherwise by the release will jump in.
C) There is a group who are skeptical about the adoption rate or regulatory approval, who will wait much longer (until level4+ and regulatory approval)
D) There are also those who think "the competition is coming" and will be cautious even longer
E) There are other's who are waiting until actual financial results from robotaxi are proven
IMHO, to get Tesla into valuations higher than all other companies, will need investments from more than just group B, therefore I expect that to happen significantly later in the process.
I think I agree with Rob. Let's be honest, while Tesla is on a trajectory to possibly be the largest company in the world someday, the notion that it could happen a few months from now is simply preposterous. Elon must have mistweeted there and meant to tweet on another thread.
Elon Time also applies to this sort of thing. He promised us the "Short Burn of the Century" 2 years before it ultimately happened after all. So "a few months" might as well be 2023 to 2025 which is what we're all expecting anyways.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
100% with you all this way so far.
This is 100% a red herring and always has been.
It's already legal in a bunch of US states. No "regulatory approval" required.
There's no robotaxis in those places not because they're waiting on regulators, but because nobody has a working L4/L5 system yet (outside of things like the heavily geofenced Waymo offering in Arizona)
So group C really has no regulatory concern in at least a significant part of the US.
That said- You left one group out.... some folks will become more bullish simply because releasing widespread city FSD, even at L2, is likely to significantly increase the take rate of a $10,000 virtually-all-profit option on all the cars sold (in the US anyway- EU is gonna be a mess for a long while with FSD- unclear on China) before you even get into the RT discussion.....
(also folks who are excited about the recurring revenue of FSD subscription also allegedly coming soon)
Another possible group- especially if Tesla announced the SC network is opening to other brands- are folks who will see wide-release L2 city driving as being enough validation of the Tesla approach, combined with opening to other brands for charging, that there might be revenue coming from licensing FSD to others and they want to jump on the stock before that's priced in.
Probably not enough to get to 3.5X the current market cap... on the other hand it's really only like 2.25x the ATH to get there (or heck 2x and a bit of a drop from apple....)- stack on the EV rebate coming back plus a bunch of "government pays Tesla to build chargers" revenue.... and maybe Ys coming out of Berlin early? who knows?
I'm so sorry; I can feel your pain.
I agree with Rob. No way Elon was suggesting TSLA would be the most valuable company in a few months. No matter how bullish he may be, that would seem improbable at best.
powertoold
Active Member
Elon's tweets and comments on fsd have been oddly bullish lately.
Achieving "real-world AI"
> 0% chance of zero intervention drives, then > 0% chance of biggest company
Pure vision approach
Big step change
When Tesla was valued around 50b following Autonomy Day, Elon had a meeting with analysts and told them something along the lines of, "Tesla should be valued at 500b by now":
www.cnbc.com
Now, as Tesla is already worth 500b without autonomy fully priced in, Elon is pumping the hype train even more.
Achieving "real-world AI"
> 0% chance of zero intervention drives, then > 0% chance of biggest company
Pure vision approach
Big step change
When Tesla was valued around 50b following Autonomy Day, Elon had a meeting with analysts and told them something along the lines of, "Tesla should be valued at 500b by now":
Elon Musk to investors: Self-driving will make Tesla a $500 billion company
On an investor call hosted by Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, Elon Musk talked up Tesla's self-driving story.
www.cnbc.com
Now, as Tesla is already worth 500b without autonomy fully priced in, Elon is pumping the hype train even more.
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