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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Big Time

Member
May 8, 2020
641
3,461
Minneapolis
Given that bit of information combine with the data out of China/Asia markets for Jan/Feb......sure does seem like 180k+ for deliveries is still on the table
Yeah so if they kept at that pace it would be around 72K for the US, not including any exports to....Canada and europe(?)
Troys NON updated numbers(mid March)call for 64K US deliveries. I haven’t seen the updated version but if it’s lower than that, depending on where the US exported cars to, he could be off by 10K+ in North America.....
Troy says 7K to canada and 30K to Europe 3/Y from Fremont.....
Seamingly 72K + 30K + 7K = 100-110K 3/Y out of freemont if those numbers hold up
10K car difference @ ASP of 45,000 = nearly half a billion dollars in potential revenue miss/beat.
 

mongo

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2017
12,892
38,067
Michigan
Do I have this right - I can move money in my IRA at TD into a Roth Acct. The taxes are due just like I pulled it out of my IRA (no penalty age), but any TSLA gains there are no longer taxed? This sounds pretty interesting if we believe the future is bright.
You owe taxes on the amount transfered, so you need to have that much cash on hand. If you use part of the IRA to cover the taxes, those non-rolled-over funds are a non-qualified distribution and are also taxed, along with a 10% penalty if are under qualifed age.

Note: doing a transfer while TSLA is down reduces the cash you need for taxes, but overall improvement of a Roth vs IRA comes down to the tax rate you pay on the lump sum rollover vs the tax rate you would pay on the multiyear withdrawls from the IRA. You need to look at taxes as a percentage, not a dollar amount. Say you have $100 and Tesla goes up 10x, if you get taxed 30% now, then you end up with $700 tax free at the end ((100*.7)x10). If you pull from an IRA in the future at 20%, you'll get $800 ((100x10)*.80), but dollar wise pay $170 more in taxes. This is simplified and does not take into account your standard deduction and the graduated tax rates which benefit the multiyear distribution.


(Roth also has differences in terms of access to the funds, which may be material depending on one's situation).
 

Lycanthrope

S3XY old dude
Nov 15, 2013
8,834
67,409
At home
I saw your post yesterday and I was like hmmm lemme check with my sources to see if a call did happen. It did, and so far 4 separate sources have confirmed to me that it took place. So thanks for your post which lead me to reaching out to my own sources. All the best, Sawyer :)
Twitter's nice, and all, but this is for realz! This is where the shitz goes down, innit
 

StarFoxisDown!

Active Member
Jan 23, 2019
2,330
16,864
Seattle
Yeah so if they kept at that pace it would be around 72K for the US, not including any exports to....Canada and europe(?)
Troys NON updated numbers(mid March)call for 64K US deliveries. I haven’t seen the updated version but if it’s lower than that, depending on where the US exported cars to, he could be off by 10K+ in North America.....
Troy says 7K to canada and 30K to Europe 3/Y from Fremont.....
Seamingly 72K + 30K + 7K = 100-110K 3/Y out of freemont if those numbers hold up
10K car difference @ ASP of 45,000 = nearly half a billion dollars in potential revenue miss/beat.

Don't forget that Feb and March, Fremont production is going only to North America. So if they sold 24k vehicles in Jan while shipping out a majority of the production overseas, Feb and March should see higher delivery numbers than in Jan......especially March.
 

Lycanthrope

S3XY old dude
Nov 15, 2013
8,834
67,409
At home
The 10-year US treasury rate has been ticking upward for the last two hours, with a significant jump during the last half hour. This weighs on net present value calculations for growth stocks like TSLA. Algobots react automatically.
Point taken, but it dropped like a stone most of the week and... nothing...

I call it voodoo...

...
 

ninpb

Member
Jun 19, 2018
577
2,331
90720

SOULPEDL

Supporting Member
Jul 25, 2016
2,880
10,755
Arizona
Fun Fri... my Reef sandals just arrived. They could almost pass for Teslawear with their colors.
Been wearing Reefs for decades, but this pair won hands down.
 

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ByeByeJohnny

Member
Dec 18, 2016
899
7,057
on top of a rocket
Yeah so if they kept at that pace it would be around 72K for the US, not including any exports to....Canada and europe(?)
Troys NON updated numbers(mid March)call for 64K US deliveries. I haven’t seen the updated version but if it’s lower than that, depending on where the US exported cars to, he could be off by 10K+ in North America.....
Troy says 7K to canada and 30K to Europe 3/Y from Fremont.....
Seamingly 72K + 30K + 7K = 100-110K 3/Y out of freemont if those numbers hold up
10K car difference @ ASP of 45,000 = nearly half a billion dollars in potential revenue miss/beat.
It won't be quite 72k. The 24k in January includes 2.5k model X/S. There will be very few of those left to sell in February and especially March. So I would go with 66k there.

But, if one looks at when the actual ships left for Europe it seems like four out of eight ships had cars made in January and the other four cars made in February. There are no Y going to Europe but if Troy is right about 30k (seems a little high to me) that would be 15k each in January and February and thus 15k extra that would stay in the US in March.

So 66k+15k+30k+7k=118k

Again, I think 30k for Europe is high but even if we take that down to say 24k the total would come to 109k.

So can China do 61k to get us above 170k?
 
Jan 19, 2013
940
11,309
Canada
One data point on Delivery numbers for 2021 Q1. I reside in Greater Toronto Area. Although Model S arrived in Canada in late 2012, Model X in June 2016, Model 3 in May 2018, the majority of my Tesla sightings are now Model Y which only began arriving in Canada June 2020. Since the beginning of 2021 there are now over two dozen Tesla owners within a 30 minute walk from my house, and I'm seeing more and more neighbours realizing the dream the more walks I take.

Model X is more popular than Model S
Model 3 is more popular than Model X
Model Y is more popular than Model 3
Cybertruck will be more popular than Model Y (certainly in North America)
Model 2 will be more popular than Cybertruck
Model 1 will be more popular than Model 2 (should Tesla decide to venture into economy cars)
Can you see the pattern here?
 

ZeApelido

Banned
Jun 1, 2016
2,745
21,466
The Peninsula, CA
One data point on Delivery numbers for 2021 Q1. I reside in Greater Toronto Area. Although Model S arrived in Canada in late 2012, Model X in June 2016, Model 3 in May 2018, the majority of my Tesla sightings are now Model Y which only began arriving in Canada June 2020. Since the beginning of 2021 there are now over two dozen Tesla owners within a 30 minute walk from my house, and I'm seeing more and more neighbours realizing the dream the more walks I take.

Model X is more popular than Model S
Model 3 is more popular than Model X
Model Y is more popular than Model 3
Cybertruck will be more popular than Model Y (certainly in North America)
Model 2 will be more popular than Cybertruck
Model 1 will be more popular than Model 2 (should Tesla decide to venture into economy cars)
Can you see the pattern here?

Model 0 will be more popular than Tim Horton's
 

MaChiMiB

Member
Jul 5, 2017
71
1,746
Germany
Andrea James on how to improve this hive mind:

No analysis of Tesla, but general thoughts and recommendations for really getting to know a company.
Plus some really important issues of the world in the second half of the interview.

Andrea is awesome, sad she doesn't cover Tesla anymore. But I think the hive mind is similarly awesome.
 

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