Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
I’m pleased with the declaration of model 3 being the best electric car...but how are the S/X/Y missing from that stage?
UK focussed:

MY not available yet.
S/X not available until 2022.
S/X sell quite well in the UK but they are on the large side.

I'm not making this up. This is what Auto Express say about the Taycan which is smaller:

That said, it’s a big car, which is something you’ll need to remember when parking and passing through narrow-width restrictions.
Porsche Taycan review - Practicality, comfort & boot space | Auto Express
 
This hasn’t been said yet. But there are a lot of pranksters here that like to say stuff on earnings days or around delivery reporting days. Added to that annoying pattern is that this deliveries day is also April 1st adjacent.

It would be greatly appreciated if nobody tries to be funny this time around. Just let the real numbers come out when they come out.
 
Global EV sales February 2021 are online:

Top 20 Brands.jpg


Top 20 Models.jpg
 
Joe's video from yesterday showing progress at Gigafactory Austin:


Of note is the large amount of installation work being done even before walls are erected, fast progress of cell production area, electricity, gas and water pipe laying, and ground work on the west side.

Tesla now has 6 major construction projects:

1. Shanghai fill-in - five large buildings
2. Berlin - phase 1
3. Austin - factory
4. Austin - west side ground work, for HQ?
5. Shanghai - groundwork on new plot, for Model 2?
6. Berlin - phase 2, trees cleared, but groundwork not started yet.
 
This is why I’m not adding to my position yet. I think Q1 numbers will be below expectations and the media & Wall Street will claim Tesla has a demand problem. The stock price will probably go back under $600 and if that’s the case I will load up because I think it’s nothing but up for the rest of the year to a new ATH.

My opinion is that it will surprise on the upside. Reasons

1) Other makes have been more impacted by the chip shortages. Will have led to some people shopping around - not sticking to usual brand.
2) You can buy a Tesla online. People more accepting of this now.
3) China sales bigger than expected
4) I think there have been quite a few ships to Europe this quarter

1617176937003.png




 
Joe's video from yesterday showing progress at Gigafactory Austin:


Of note is the large amount of installation work being done even before walls are erected, fast progress of cell production area, electricity, gas and water pipe laying, and ground work on the west side.

Tesla now has 6 major construction projects:

1. Shanghai fill-in - five large buildings
2. Berlin - phase 1
3. Austin - factory
4. Austin - west side ground work, for HQ?
5. Shanghai - groundwork on new plot, for Model 2?
6. Berlin - phase 2, trees cleared, but groundwork not started yet.
There's also:
  • Nevada - Semi manufacturing line
  • Fremont - Roadruner manufacturing line
Even with the increased forecast CapEx for 2021 to $6bn, I'm surprised it's not going to cost more than this.

Then there's smaller CapEx costs for S/X lines and presumably solar roof/supercharger/stationary storage continued production ramping.
 

4:20 PM

Official Schedule
The President delivers remarks on his economic vision for the future and the Biden-Harris Administration’s plan to Build Back Better for the American people
I predict that this bill will be signed in 69 days.
 
There's also:
  • Nevada - Semi manufacturing line
  • Fremont - Roadruner manufacturing line
Even with the increased forecast CapEx for 2021 to $6bn, I'm surprised it's not going to cost more than this.

Then there's smaller CapEx costs for S/X lines and presumably solar roof/supercharger/stationary storage continued production ramping.

I was only counting construction projects, but I missed a potential one

Tesla now has 6 7 major construction projects:

1. Shanghai fill-in - five large buildings
2. Berlin - phase 1
3. Austin - factory
4. Austin - west side ground work, for HQ?
5. Shanghai - groundwork on new plot, for Model 2?
6. Berlin - phase 2, trees cleared, but groundwork not started yet.
7. Austin - semi production, possibly at 8:24 in the video below or on the west side at 16:35

 
I'd be surprised if Tesla has only ordered one casting machine. The area in Austin dedicated to casting can hold several machines.

Cells / GWH / TWH & casting machines seem like the best indicators of future supply. We'll know cycle/production rate of Gigapresses at Fremont, Berlin, Shanghai soon (if not already). Then the Texas Gigapresses can be counted & estimates for Y & Cybertruck production can be better estimated.
 

Biden is also proposing to accelerate the shift to electric vehicles with a $174 billion investment in the electric vehicle market. It includes giving consumers rebates and tax incentives to buy American-made electric vehicles and establishing grant and incentive programs to build a national network of 500,000 charging stations by 2030. It would also replace 50,000 diesel transit vehicles and electrify at least 20% of yellow school buses.

If it's just rebates for American made, not sure if the Mustang Mach-E qualifies? (Made in Mexico?)
 
I don't think Tesla's NN will surpass vision+ lidar in reliability (except maybe in heavy weather?..jury is still out on how reliable cameras are when occluded). Vision + lidar from Waymo has cleared regulatory hurdles and are robotaxies, which is the goal for Tesla. Being more reliable than Waymo right now may not even be meaningful.
You are comparing the the AI/processing stack, the NN for Tesla, to the sensor bundle for Waymo and making a judgement on capability.

That makes little sense to me. It's like saying there's no way Intel's CPU's will beat out Samsung's best monitors. You are comparing apples to oranges.