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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Singuy

Active Member
Jun 28, 2018
3,664
25,056
US
From what I'm getting, on information from Asian sources... there's really not a "chip shortage" per se. It's just how cyclical things are. Usually companies (carmakers in this case) make their orders (or their OEMs) to chipmakers/foundrys on a quarterly or yearly basis. As covid kicked in, they started cancelling orders left and right. From chipmaker's perspective, they were like... "ok, let's get the production shifted to those who didn't cancel". This is important for TSLA because they might be those few ones who didn't cancel their orders and march along.

Fast forward to 2021, the economy is recovering from covid and carmakers are realizing that without those chips that they canceled, they weren't going to match their production rate. So, they all rush to foundries like TSMC for their chips to be made. However, TSMC and other were already producing at 100% capacity. And there isn't much they can do because chip productions are very difficult/expensive to ramp, so it's carefully calculated so that it always runs near capacity. Thus, a sudden "comeback" of canceled orders that were supposed to be part of a 100% production planning is what's causing the "shortage". It's just there's only so much production, and the carmakers lost their chance for chip production.

If they want to blame on anything, it should be blamed on their own short-sighted vision.
Not short sighted but afraid of losing even more money than reported. When these car companies operate on razor thin margins when even a small disruption to sales put them in the red by billions. This is why they get *sugar* PE ratio multiples and deserves it.
 

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
8,688
107,844
Canada
Loup Venture’s Gene is saying that the whisper number was 7% lower than street estimate, suggesting a net 13% beat. I am guessing many may be taking short position going in this weekend seeing lower whisper number. Should be an interesting open on Monday.
Ahaha, Gene is a jolly joker. 160K wasn't the Wall St. "whisper number", it was HIS BLODDY number from 3 DAYS AGO (ffs i don't need to add). :p


"While Wall Street expects Tesla to report 174,000 deliveries, Munster says the firm expects around 160,000"​

Slagged ol'Gene then, gonna repeat it now: He can't ADD. By his own narrative, he should have predicted 176K production, not 160K.

Anyway, Gene is no Auntie Cathie... :p

Cheers!
 

Favguy

Member
Nov 8, 2013
203
1,899
England, UK
I really hope I'm wrong, but the typical parties have all weekend plus an extra day to get their FUD in high gear to try to suppress a rally on Monday. We've already seen CNBS move the goal posts so it looks like TSLA didn't beat the consensus as much as they actually did. Where are the fire stories? Deaths on autopilot? Elon tweets vs. SEC?

I expect it to be a FUD-filled weekend, sadly.
Let 'em all try their best, it'll just wind the spring tighter even if they do manage to suppress any breakout. We can wait... ;)
 

tachyon

Member
Oct 13, 2016
144
800
Milwaukee
This is one of the most important P&D report in TSLA history:
For the FIRST time, Q1 delivery exceeds the prior Q4. This is the inflection point where TSLA's growth is starting to outpace seasonal fluctuation. In fact, last year Q1 could have been it if we didn't have Fremont shutdown for 6 weeks due to COVID. This year we got confirmation.
This Q confirms that TSLA is NOT affected by the global chip shortage.
This Q confirms that Shanghai is a powerhouse and that opening new gigafactories will be immensely profitable for TSLA. Berlin and Austin are simultaneously beginning production in a few months.
Fremont was shut down from March 23-May11 of 2020
Only 1 week in Q1’20 and the rest of the shut down was in Q2’20
 

KMCC

Supporting Member
Jul 18, 2019
129
1,522
New England

keydiver

Supporting Member
Jul 31, 2015
412
3,315
Hobe Sound, FL
GoJo's point-of-view:
When Tesla sells fewer cars than produced, it's demand issue --> bearish
When Tesla sells more cars then produced, it's production constraint --> bearish
And, when Tesla sells more cars then produced, and they are losing money on every car, then they are losing LOTS of money!--> very bearish 🤪
 

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
8,688
107,844
Canada
For me it's "Looks like I picked the right company in which to invest 10% 20% half my life savings"

For me it's "Looks like I picked the right company in which to invest 3% 10% 2% 67% half my life savings"

86293023.gif


Cheers!
 

Hock1

Member
Jan 21, 2017
677
6,334
Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
From what I'm getting, on information from Asian sources... there's really not a "chip shortage" per se. It's just how cyclical things are. Usually companies (carmakers in this case) make their orders (or their OEMs) to chipmakers/foundrys on a quarterly or yearly basis. As covid kicked in, they started cancelling orders left and right. From chipmaker's perspective, they were like... "ok, let's get the production shifted to those who didn't cancel". This is important for TSLA because they might be those few ones who didn't cancel their orders and march along.

Fast forward to 2021, the economy is recovering from covid and carmakers are realizing that without those chips that they canceled, they weren't going to match their production rate. So, they all rush to foundries like TSMC for their chips to be made. However, TSMC and other were already producing at 100% capacity. And there isn't much they can do because chip productions are very difficult/expensive to ramp, so it's carefully calculated so that it always runs near capacity. Thus, a sudden "comeback" of canceled orders that were supposed to be part of a 100% production planning is what's causing the "shortage". It's just there's only so much production, and the carmakers lost their chance for chip production.

If they want to blame on anything, it should be blamed on their own short-sighted vision.
To really drill on the "chip shortage", it exists because some legacy automakers are beginning to read the handwriting on the wall and don't want to build more cars that they know will not sell. MO.
 

Singuy

Active Member
Jun 28, 2018
3,664
25,056
US
To really drill on the "chip shortage", it exists because some legacy automakers are beginning to read the handwriting on the wall and don't want to build more cars that they know will not sell. MO.
The only chip shortage that is weird comes from NIO. Like happened there? Pretty sure

1. They didn't reduce their orderable for chips due to Covid
2. Their volume is so low that they most likely need to order batches so large that it supersede their production by a long shot anyways
3. Maybe it's just to cover up their battery shortage, which is the real story here.

Fabs produce chips extremely fast. Nio's total yearly orders will take a typical fab less than a hour to produce.
 

Zaxxon

Supporting Member
Dec 11, 2012
4,653
21,428
Colorado
I am sure we will hear "No profit without credits....." at least 1000 times before market open Monday.
If our friend @The Accountant is on his game, that might be... unwise. In a Q1, no less.

Of course people mentioned the Chinese New Year as a reason for decreased production confuse the heck out of me. As if it never happened before and won't happen again. Oh..this year the Christmas shut production in Freemont....Oh...we won't have a leap day this year so production will be less....etc etc. WTF do people write things like that for? New Year is a huge deal in most East Asian countries and always has and always will shut down production for several days. No different this year than last year or next year.
The context was in terms of reaching 1M produced/delivered this year. So no, the Chinese New Year will not happen again in 2021. Unless there's something I don't know.
 
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Reactions: capster and Compton
Jan 7, 2015
269
2,183
Earth/EU/DK
So that was considerably better than I had prepared myself for. Now I’m not sure where to calibrate my expectations for the rest of the year and not get ahead of the curve.

Historically Tesla gets stronger as the year progresses. That should be a repeat given industry trends but also as Berlin and Texas (not necessarily in that order) come online.

How much better can GigaShanghai get?? Holy throw down the gauntlet and showoff to the world.

I’m going to temper my expectations by assuming German anal retentive perfectionism has Berlin ramp slower than temporary permit allocation and American discombobulation wrecks havoc on Texas ramp and say nothing of significance comes out of either locale this year. Even with that, how does Tesla not seriously flirt with 1M deliveries this year?!

Spring is running out of time, but Mom may still have gotten this right after all. 🤷‍♂️
Plus even though Giga Shanghai is doing very well right now, future looks even better: Ac. to youtubers WUWA/Jang the fill-in of new buildings is progressing quickly. Also, ac. to WUWA (but unconfirmed AFAIK) Tesla is likely soon-to-be-building on a fresh, new piece of land across the river, and close to the sea.
Yeah, Berlin seems slow ... but most of the buildings are close to dry-in. Plus Grohmann close by - I think they can catch up. Austin is growing very fast.
My guess is that both Giga Berlin and Giga Austin are starting to produce (low volume) in the autumn.
We may get 1.1 M this year and close to 2M in 2022!
 
Last edited:

ninpb

Member
Jun 19, 2018
587
2,396
90720
From what I'm getting, on information from Asian sources... there's really not a "chip shortage" per se. It's just how cyclical things are. Usually companies (carmakers in this case) make their orders (or their OEMs) to chipmakers/foundrys on a quarterly or yearly basis. As covid kicked in, they started cancelling orders left and right. From chipmaker's perspective, they were like... "ok, let's get the production shifted to those who didn't cancel". This is important for TSLA because they might be those few ones who didn't cancel their orders and march along.

Fast forward to 2021, the economy is recovering from covid and carmakers are realizing that without those chips that they canceled, they weren't going to match their production rate. So, they all rush to foundries like TSMC for their chips to be made. However, TSMC and other were already producing at 100% capacity. And there isn't much they can do because chip productions are very difficult/expensive to ramp, so it's carefully calculated so that it always runs near capacity. Thus, a sudden "comeback" of canceled orders that were supposed to be part of a 100% production planning is what's causing the "shortage". It's just there's only so much production, and the carmakers lost their chance for chip production.

If they want to blame on anything, it should be blamed on their own short-sighted vision.

I wonder if the thought of over ordering chips was even in Kirkhorns mind to resell at a profit to other makers. Tesla has been good with forecasting and aren't afraid to pull unorthodox maneuvers when the opportunities presents itself.
 

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