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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Hock1

Member
Jan 21, 2017
677
6,334
Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
Toyota doesn't need to licence 4680 tech; Panasonic has already announced plans to produce them, and has existing contracts with Toyota.

Toyota just needs to back up their greenwash PR with order volume sufficient to spur investment, and then carry through with their plans.

Are you saying that Toyota will have access to the 4680 technology through their relationship with Pana? How will Tesla get paid for the use of this technology? Maybe I missed something along the way. Thanks.

Edit: Guess I should have read the intervening posts. Seems like others are wondering the same thing.
 
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Singuy

Active Member
Jun 28, 2018
3,664
25,056
US
They are totally different products and different manufacturing. Musk stated the factories they are building have the output of up to 10 old factories. No?
Toyota has 45 factories and move more cars. I don't know is going on with VW.

However there are 14 factories in the North America from Toyota that moves 2 million cars. One hell of a job that Tesla can move about half this number with only 2 factories.
 

mejojo

Supporting Member
Aug 4, 2014
994
2,478
Santa Paula, CA
Thanks!

150 EU vs 250 USD here in USA - why such a huge diff? Am ordering via a friend just now ;D

View attachment 650487

wow.
1617463469718.png
 

lklundin

Active Member
Oct 10, 2014
2,972
20,323
Bavaria
6000 ton presses. Model OL 6100 CS in Video - DCC 6000 in Shanghai. I think similar series for the two in Fremont and one installed in Austin.

Yes, it is the Idra OL 6100 CS gigapress.

Per the video's own information, the shown gigapress is being assembled at Idra (and from the video, this is clearly not at GF3).

So Idra presumably assemble the press locally, test it, disassemble it and then ship it for re-assembly at the customer.

Per the CEO, two other gigapresses have been installed and put into production at customer plants - with 9 additional ones to be delivered during 2021.

He also mentioned the date August 20 as the day where the first batch of good parts were made. This would clearly be at Fremont, last year.

(Skip to 8m 2s for these comments)
 

Ohmster

Lunatic @ Large
Sep 6, 2017
128
185
SoCal
Rob at Tesla Daily did in his recent video: "Probably $75 to a $100 million revenue for Tesla."
 
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Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
8,689
107,849
Canada
2021 Tesla S/X Production:

Some folks are now predicting 62K-ish total S/X production for the year, based on an annualized run rate of 100K for 2 shifts at Fremont. But this assumes that GA at Fremont is the limiting factor for S/X production. No surprise, it is not: the limiting factor is the supply of 18650 battery cells from Japan.

That cell supply is all but written in stone now for 2021 (indeed perhaps until 2023) via signed contracts with Panasonic). Telsa WILL receive enough cells for 100K cars in 2021. They WILL NOT reduce their order with Panasonic under ANY circumstances (just like how their 'chip' orders remained stable in 2020, now to their great benefit).

Likewise, other parts for Model S/X are either from long-term contracts with external suppliers (which Tesla will NOT reduce), or they are parts which Tesla makes in-house, giving them ultimate control over supply and production. Parts, including battery cells, are NOT the limiting factor.

So then, does Tesla have enough GA surge capacity to assemble ~20% extra S/X over the remainder of 2021 to produce 100K by year-end? Let's look at peak S/X production for clues:

Quarter S/Xtot Comment
2016Q4 24,882 Model X production ramped​
2017Q1 25,418 New record Quarterly Production of S/X​
2017Q2 25,708 "severe production shortfall" of 100kWh bty packs **​
2017Q3 25,076 past peak S/X production; Model 3 'hell' begins​
2017Q4 22,076 Tesla reallocates some S/X labor to Model 3 line​

** Tesla Q2 2017 Vehicle Production and Deliveries | Jul 7, 2017
The major factor affecting Tesla's Q2 deliveries was a severe production shortfall of 100 kWh battery packs, which are made using new technologies on new production lines.. The technology challenge grows exponentially with energy density. Until early June, production averaged about 40% below demand. Once this was resolved, June orders and deliveries were strong, ranking as one of the best in Tesla history.

And there's the clue: 2017Q2 was production constrained for S/X until JUNE, but that quarter still resulted in record production, just edging out the previous quarter for the all-time best.

So, even handicapped by insufficient supply of bty packs for 2/3rds of 2017Q2, Tesla was able to surge production enough in the final month to set a new record at over 25.7K S/X per quarter. And that means that the S/X GA line had extra capacity given enough bty packs in 2017Q2.

Tesla's statement that bty pack "production was 40% below demand" until June implies surge production may have been ~15.5K in June 201, implying surge capability of 45K/qtr for GA.

Note that this was acheive on the old production line(s). Tesla will have made efficiency improvements on the new line, but MOST IMPORTANT is that now S/X production will not be constrained by battery packs (as in 2017Q2) so peak production can be higher than 25.7K/qtr.

Going forward, we can expect that Tesla will return to 2-shift operations for the S/X GA line, and that production will quickly exceed previous records due to the lifting of battery pack constraints.

I'll make this final observation: Tesla Model S/X production planners likely know exactly how many battery cells they have available this year, and how fast they can ramp production. I expect they will match these two factors so by year end they've used all of their available supply of cells.

TL;dr Tesla has the battery cell supply and GA capacity to produce 100K S/X total in FY2021.

Cheers!
 
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jbcarioca

Well-Known Member
Feb 3, 2015
5,161
24,293
if Tesla created the 4680 tech, would Toyota or others not have to pay Tesla a royalty / license it from Tesla to use it, regardless of who is producing the 4680 for these other manufacturers?

Or has Tesla open sourced 4680 tech to anyone that wants to use it to advance the mission ?
Im my opinion the patents are the easy part. The manufacturing process apart from specific patents is probably more critical. Whether Tesla demands payment fo any sort is a different issue. Their history together probably is no longer relevant since that was a long time ago Tesla-time and Toyota management is quite different now too. Tesla probably will license and help via Panasonic in this case, but the 'devil is in the details'.
My Toyota experience is more than a decade old, so my opinion is at best dated, at worst irrelevant.
 

2daMoon

Mostly Harmless
Nov 25, 2020
671
4,663
Terra
Are you saying that Toyota will have access to the 4680 technology through their relationship with Pana? How will Tesla get paid for the use of this technology? Maybe I missed something along the way. Thanks.

Edit: Guess I should have read the intervening posts. Seems like others are wondering the same thing.

The way I see it, 4680 form factor and tabless is something Tesla will allow others to use. These will expand productivity of the larger battery with the key tech for higher current and ability to manage heat.

The battery innards, such as dry electrode, groundbreaking cathode chemistries and materials science, as well as their production line improvements, could each remain firmly within the proprietary realm of Tesla. These are what will make Tesla's 4680 cells markedly better than most others.
 
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Sofie

HODL: "I’d rather be a part of it, than watch”
Jul 31, 2020
212
985
Florida
[IMG alt="Sofie"]https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/data/avatars/m/141/141084.jpg?1616804231[/IMG]

Sofie

HODL: "I’d rather be apart of it, than watch” · From Florida

______________________________________________________________________________

You and I are in the same boat. Any time I try and diversify, it does worse than TSLA and I instantly regret not just buying more TSLA, so I stopped trying. ;)

Weekend OT:

@Sofie - insert a space between "a" and "part" so it means what you intend! :)
Thank you so much! ☺️
How’s that?
 

st_lopes

Member
Aug 3, 2020
362
3,535
Canada
Wait, 118 factories to move 8 million cars a year? Tesla can move half this number with 4 factories. Am I missing something?

Fremont is already one of the largest car manufacturing facilities in the world, and it will be one of Tesla’s smallest facilities.

The legacy model of hyper-localization to accommodate suppliers is a thing of the past.
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
6,800
24,445
Philadelphia, PA
We're focused on this insane quarter of delivery, but we're only mentioning the big picture in passing. I think we're very very likely to see Elon bring all his enterprises under one umbrella within the next year. Why on Earth wouldn't he?

Tesla Automotive has won. This war is over. FSD, Semi, CT, etc......none of these are a concern IMO. They'll get done. The series of battles fought against those keeping Tesla from scaling have now all been lost. We're only seeing the first couple indicators of full-scale production, but IMO Elon's growth projections are inevitable and likely conservative.

Tesla Energy is poised to scale. Apple has bought in. Australia projects are saving dozens of millions of dollars for ratepayers at scale. All the energy production hardware(wind/solar) on which the new Tesla ecosystem is reliant are now pretty much free. The federal gov't of the United States is now fully behind this transition, juicing production through the market and dumping billions in subsidies into the pipes Tesla will "own" and operate.

SpaceX is ramping testing. Costs will be increasing exponentially as Elon starts putting humans into orbit and beyond. The time to fully monetize all his operations is here.

Total enterprise value is infinity. TSLA at $630B is almost absurd, but in many ways still undervalued given these new certainties. What in god's name would you pay for a share of Elon's unified efforts? Pushing them all together creates the ability to buy into the future. You literally cannot put a price on that. I'm as cheap as they come, and I would be buying with every penny I had right up through a $10T market cap. Potentially branching off into handjobs to fund more shares, or if things really got bad.....maybe even go back into corporate consulting.

#thetweetisreal
 
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Rarity

Member
Jan 29, 2009
883
3,648
We're focused on this insane quarter of delivery, but we're only mentioning the big picture in passing. I think we're very very likely to see Elon bring all his enterprises under one umbrella within the next year. Why on Earth wouldn't he?
Because he doesn't now and will not in the future own enough of Tesla and SpaceX to do so. It is not common practice in the West to formally link entities with less than 50% common ownership. Happens all the time in Korea and Japan, but not here.

In my opinion, it is a solution looking for a problem. It seems to work fine without too many issues now.
 
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Hock1

Member
Jan 21, 2017
677
6,334
Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
The way I see it, 4680 form factor and tabless is something Tesla will allow others to use. These will expand productivity of the larger battery with the key tech for higher current and ability to manage heat.

The battery innards, such as dry electrode, groundbreaking cathode chemistries and materials science, as well as their production line improvements, could each remain firmly within the proprietary realm of Tesla. These are what will make Tesla's 4680 cells markedly better than most others.
I'm not a chemical or electrical engineer, but I am quite sure that the superiority of the 4680 technology was achieved through a combination of chemistry, system management, tabless format and the actual physical dimensions of the battery (46mm x 80mm). Therefore, I believe the battery will be sold to Toyota with all the physical, chemical and electrical qualities that make up the 4680, as is. Tesla has to get paid for this and, perhaps, the negotiations that are allegedly going on have to do with this. Just a couple of dots out there that I am compelled to connect.
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
6,800
24,445
Philadelphia, PA
Because he doesn't now and will not in the future own enough of Tesla and SpaceX to do so. It is not common practice in the West to formally link entities with less than 50% common ownership. Happens all the time in Korea and Japan, but not here.

In my opinion, it is a solution looking for a problem. It seems to work fine without too many issues now.
The growth patterns of Tesla and SpaceX are on the same exponential path, only one is a profit and one is pure cost.

And really, what are the odds Elon just let's Tesla sit and churn out cars? All these Energy products would greatly benefit from the heft of an enterprise 3-5x that of TSLA.

It doesn't solve any of today's problems, it enables the next phase. IMO it would have most of the benefit of taking TSLA private with 100x the access to capital.
 

Cosmacelf

Well-Known Member
Mar 6, 2013
8,504
20,415
San Diego
Lol Bloomberg....at least pretend you're not selling headlines. Front page of the app today....

View attachment 650498
It is actually a good article. The headline is simply pointing out that Rivian will be putting chargers in really way out locations, even more remote than Tesla has. It gives a lot of credit to Tesla for realizing ten years ago that ubiquitous chargers sell cars, and that Rivian has realized the same thing. They point out that Rivian is staying on brand by building remote chargers. The interesting info graphic:

3B9EE93B-DE73-4EF6-BAF2-09C066A0C79C.jpeg


And the article link: Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
 

Rarity

Member
Jan 29, 2009
883
3,648
The growth patterns of Tesla and SpaceX are on the same exponential path, only one is a profit and one is pure cost.
They're pretty dissimilar businesses, each with its own growth trajectory, scale, and purpose. It would be difficult to align the employee and investor incentives. Easier and fairer to just let each run its own course.

If you need to create a joint venture between Tesla and SpaceX for the eVTOL market, that can be done.
 
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