Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[joh01652]

Yikes. Well, whatever man. I think you guys are being a bit too sensitive, but hey, that's just my opinion.

BTW, while we're on the subject of Rivian, it's interesting that they are copying another Tesla innovation, that of mobile service. Finally this week, they told us how they are going to service vehicles, and the answer is mobile service vans, at your home or work. The always connected vehicle (more Tesla innovations) will report to the mothership the health status, and Rivian will reach out to you to schedule service, and presumably they'll have an app to request service yourself.

I think you both bring up valid points.

I like coming to TMC for analysis because different members have different interpretations of the same information, which forces me to think more deeply about my own interpretations/assumptions/opinions/conclusions.

This is what makes this forum great.

Thanks everyone for your contributions.

 

[PeterJA]

I wonder what the locals on the forum think about this:

Tesla is on a collision course with Germany's biggest union and neither side is likely to back down

What happens when a notoriously anti-union carmaker sets up shop in a country with one of the strongest traditions of organized labor?

www.businessinsider.com

I'm not a German local, but that article reeks of hit-piece: Doom and gloom for Tesla but fails to mention that all Tesla workers get stock (according to Elon). That fact plus their non-union wages and benefits apparently satisfy Tesla's workers in America and Germany so far. Tesla's German engineering division (Grohmann Automation) is glossed over by the article.

Big surprise from Business Insider.

 

[Cosmacelf]

And they are being sued for stealing Tesla's IP related to charging infrastructure and mobile service...

True. Rivian appears to have a bad corporate culture about this. IF the allegations are true (and Tesla appears to have evidence), those employees who brought Tesla proprietary info with them to their new job should have been fired. Do note that the IP allegedly being stolen is fairly “soft”. PowerPoint presentations about recruiting strategies, lists of desirable Tesla employees to poach, and manufacturing line implementation info. It isn’t something that Rivian absolutely needs, nor is it something that will badly harm Tesla. My guess as to the outcome, Tesla will win a judgement against Rivian in two years.

Frankly I wish Tesla would copy (not steal) Rivian’s SUV form factor, Rivian is the only EV manufacturer to sell a full size SUV.

 

[capster]

Am I the only person that views Neuralink as the runt of the litter? A runt with a clumsy implant in its head with a serious need for legitimate researchers with cash? I’m not saying they should try but perhaps would be wise to think of it as the most difficult of all endeavors.

I have the view opposite of yours: Neuralink has the most profound and consequential potential of the litter—though it‘ll play out as a dark horse.

Perhaps it is easier to see its value as a multiplier of human potential. If you were ten, twenty, a hundred, or a thousand times smarter than others, how well would you do in, say, the market? The one eyed man or woman rules in the land of the blind as Elon has amply demonstrated.

Also, solving aging will not be enough, we’ll need upgrades to compete and survive. It isn’t just AI that we’re in competition with. Mutants of extraordinary capability are cropping up (only slightly exaggerating here, for example: Who Are These Kids, and What Are They Doing to Jazz? from the NY Times).

Further, the internet enables an unprecedented ability to winnow. Who’s to say that the Western Liberal tradition will prevent breakaway and fragmentation of human civilization as we reach into space, even with just baby steps into this solar system?

Say that Neuralink ‘only’ solves addiction and sensory-motor control issues, that is a big deal and a big business.

In the larger picture, the pandemic may have made things seem like they’re slowing down, but technological changes are gathering speed and power.

 

[2daMoon]

Am I the only person that views Neuralink as the runt of the litter? A runt with a clumsy implant in its head with a serious need for legitimate researchers with cash? I’m not saying they should try but perhaps would be wise to think of it as the most difficult of all endeavors.

Hal, er, I mean Dojo will be looking for a challenge once its part of the autonomy project is dealt with sufficiently.

 

[22522]

Since its the weekend, I hope its ok to post this here. Trying to understand better about charitable remainder trusts, potentially as a way to retire, avoid taxes on selling Tesla, and get an income stream. Because Tesla could go up soon and many of us are contemplating retirement, I think its relevant to a lot of people. I learned about it from my tax advisor.

Not investment advise but from what I can tell positives are you can put tesla in a CRT, sell tesla in the CRT without paying any tax, manage the money in the CRT and direct into safer investments, get an annuity, get a tax deduction up from which can be spread out over first 5 years and cover the taxes on the annuity those years. If you die early, the charity gets the entire sum but you can offset this risk with life insurance which i have.

If you have any thoughts, I'd be curious... thanks!

OK to move to early retirement thread if needed.

Is this an "If Tesla is done" plan?

 

[2daMoon]

So far the realization of the more economical 4680 form factor has been prevented by the cell's internal resistance - since this produces heat, which cannot be quickly removed from a large volume via its relatively small surface. So I would say that at the very least other realizations of the 4680 form factor would include the tabless design, for which Tesla has been issued a patent (which would fall under the patent pledge).

Yes, I should have mentioned the advantages of 4680/tabless to overcome the heat issue with batteries ... oh, wait, I did

As for Tesla patents, that won't necessarily mean Tesla is keeping it to themselves. They have been adamant regarding openness to share their patented tech. But, it is up to them about how that is managed.

 

[2daMoon]

Since its the weekend, I hope its ok to post this here. Trying to understand better about charitable remainder trusts, potentially as a way to retire, avoid taxes on selling Tesla, and get an income stream. Because Tesla could go up soon and many of us are contemplating retirement, I think its relevant to a lot of people. I learned about it from my tax advisor.

Not investment advise but from what I can tell positives are you can put tesla in a CRT, sell tesla in the CRT without paying any tax, manage the money in the CRT and direct into safer investments, get an annuity, get a tax deduction up from which can be spread out over first 5 years and cover the taxes on the annuity those years. If you die early, the charity gets the entire sum but you can offset this risk with life insurance which i have.

If you have any thoughts, I'd be curious... thanks!

OK to move to early retirement thread if needed.

Try looking / posting in THIS THREAD there's some discussion about CRTs there.

 

[MP3Mike]

for which Tesla has been issued a patent (which would fall under the patent pledge).

You have to remember a couple things about that patent pledge:

1. It doesn't include all Tesla patents, only patents specifically listed on the site.
2. It has a couple "poison pills": If you take advantage of Tesla's open patents you
   • have to open your patents for Tesla and all other EV manufacturers.
   • can never challenge, or help someone else challenge, any Tesla patent.

That makes it highly unlikely that anybody with a stable of patents would ever take advantage of it. (Though start-ups can probably make great use of it.)

 

[Tim S]

I wonder what the locals on the forum think about this:

Tesla is on a collision course with Germany's biggest union and neither side is likely to back down

What happens when a notoriously anti-union carmaker sets up shop in a country with one of the strongest traditions of organized labor?

www.businessinsider.com

I think "don't click on a business insider link".

 

[buttershrimp]

I have the view opposite of yours: Neuralink has the most profound and consequential potential of the litter—though it‘ll play out as a dark horse.

Perhaps it is easier to see its value as a multiplier of human potential. If you were ten, twenty, a hundred, or a thousand times smarter than others, how well would you do in, say, the market? The one eyed man or woman rules in the land of the blind as Elon has amply demonstrated.

Also solving aging will not be enough, we’ll need upgrades to compete and survive. It isn’t just AI that we’re in competition with. Mutants of extraordinary capability are cropping up (only slightly exaggerating here, for example: Who Are These Kids, and What Are They Doing to Jazz? from the NY Times).

Further, the internet enables an unprecedented ability to winnow. Who’s to say that the Western Liberal tradition will prevent breakaway and fragmentation of human civilization as we reach into space, even with just baby steps into this solar system?

Say that Neuralink ‘only’ solves addiction and sensory-motor control issues, that is a big deal and a big business.

In the larger picture, the pandemic may have made things seem like they’re slowing down, but technological changes are gathering speed and power.

Oh no doubt it would be the most important, but I’m advocating that they get serious about it with real researchers... right now it’s by far the most difficult endeavor of Elon’s visions.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Ahaha, Gene is a jolly joker. 160K wasn't the Wall St. "whisper number", it was HIS BLODDY number from 3 DAYS AGO (ffs i don't need to add).

Tesla Faces Headwinds in Q1 2021 that Will Convert to Long-Term Tailwinds, Says Loup Ventures

Tesla faced short-term headwinds in Q1 2021, which will impact the number of deliveries. However, some of them will eventually become long-term tailwinds for the company, says Loup Ventures.

www.tesmanian.com

"While Wall Street expects Tesla to report 174,000 deliveries, Munster says the firm expects around 160,000"​

Slagged ol'Gene then, gonna repeat it now: He can't ADD. By his own narrative, he should have predicted 176K production, not 160K.

Anyway, Gene is no Auntie Cathie...

Cheers!

Maybe he was sandbagging.

 

[AudubonB]

my favorite part of that article was their assertion that Tesla delivered 499,500 cars in Q4 of last year, so Q1 deliveries are far below their record quarter. It's pretty impressive when someone can be so catastrophically wrong and confuse annual numbers with quarterly ones.

What I decided had the best probability of having happened was that someone was proudly letting loose his NiftyKeen-o CrawlerBotAutoArticleWriter....and didn't bother to give the result a glance before hitting the Enter button. That entire article was one whole ice rink of slipshoddism!

 

[AudubonB]

Anyone know why the SEC called on Burry? The article doesn’t say. I’m not upset that yet another Tesla bear gets shut up, but on the flip side, not sure that the SEC should be shutting up people at all. Are opinions about companies verboten now, or did Burry cross some line?

I do not know why. I DO know that IF someone uses a public platform to pump pump pump and THEN he goes dump dump dump, not only should the SEC be shutting him up but they should be shutting him up in the Big House.

 

[Paul_SF]

Should Tesla buy IDRA?

 

[st_lopes]

Should Tesla buy IDRA?

I would not be surprised if once they prove out that the casting presses will operate at scale that they turn around and outright acquire IDRA.

 

[Electroman]

So far the realization of the more economical 4680 form factor has been prevented by the cell's internal resistance - since this produces heat, which cannot be quickly removed from a large volume via its relatively small surface. So I would say that at the very least other realizations of the 4680 form factor would include the tabless design, for which Tesla has been issued a patent (which would fall under the patent pledge).

Agreed. Without tabless, 4680 is dead on arrival. So the question is, does Tesla get paid royalty every time tabless is used in any form factor?

 

[AudubonB]

~~~IDRA fantasies have been promulgated and shot down any number of times; by now all really should have seen at least one of them. The company is now controlled by others. Not for sale~~~

 

[Electroman]

I think you guys are being a bit too sensitive

Pointing out the headlines and the premise of the article is 100% wrong is not being too sensitive. It is just pointing out the facts.

Moron reporter: "When Sun rose in the west this morning, ...."

"No Sun did not rise in the west and has not done that ever"

"oh you are being too sensitive".

 

[mrmage]

Since its the weekend, I hope its ok to post this here. Trying to understand better about charitable remainder trusts, potentially as a way to retire, avoid taxes on selling Tesla, and get an income stream. Because Tesla could go up soon and many of us are contemplating retirement, I think its relevant to a lot of people. I learned about it from my tax advisor.

Not investment advise but from what I can tell positives are you can put tesla in a CRT, sell tesla in the CRT without paying any tax, manage the money in the CRT and direct into safer investments, get an annuity, get a tax deduction up from which can be spread out over first 5 years and cover the taxes on the annuity those years. If you die early, the charity gets the entire sum but you can offset this risk with life insurance which i have.

If you have any thoughts, I'd be curious... thanks!

OK to move to early retirement thread if needed.

There's a thread here.

FlipCRUTs are especially interesting. I've learned a bit more about them and post an update there.