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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Krugerrand

Was cat, now temporarily dog. 🤷‍♂️
Jul 13, 2012
10,914
53,979
Tesla friendly place
I wonder what the locals on the forum think about this:

Oh no doubt it would be the most important, but I’m advocating that they get serious about it with real researchers... right now it’s by far the most difficult endeavor of Elon’s visions.
Did you not watch their most recent ‘recruitment’ video? If not, you should. Several people were introduced. It’s quite an eclectic, diverse group of brilliant people.
 
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Opus BC fan

TSLA long since 2011
Dec 9, 2012
593
5,934
At Large

Since its the weekend, I hope its ok to post this here. Trying to understand better about charitable remainder trusts, potentially as a way to retire, avoid taxes on selling Tesla, and get an income stream. Because Tesla could go up soon and many of us are contemplating retirement, I think its relevant to a lot of people. I learned about it from my tax advisor.

Not investment advise but from what I can tell positives are you can put tesla in a CRT, sell tesla in the CRT without paying any tax, manage the money in the CRT and direct into safer investments, get an annuity, get a tax deduction up from which can be spread out over first 5 years and cover the taxes on the annuity those years. If you die early, the charity gets the entire sum but you can offset this risk with life insurance which i have.

If you have any thoughts, I'd be curious... thanks!

OK to move to early retirement thread if needed.
I am setting this up as part of my will -- the life insurance part appears unnecessary. It would best be discussed in another thread...
Thank you for the suggestion @2daMoon.
 
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MC3OZ

Active Member
Jul 25, 2019
2,150
11,664
QLD Australia
There are lots of rumors, but nothing concrete from any of the Quad Squad members (drone flyers) sources.

  • SpaceX are known to be planning a StarLink terminal factory in the Austin area.
  • SpaceX are also likely to move their HQ function to Texas, but probably Starbase (Boca Chica).
  • Tesla HQ is moving to Austin and rumors are that it will be across the highway.
  • Tesla is opening a design center in the Austin area, possibly here.
  • Rumors are also of a test track
  • Rumors of housing across the toll road.
  • Martin Marietta are also supposed to vacate their current concrete plant, rumor is that they will move to Tesla owned land across the highway (but possibly next to the asphalt plant).
Edit: forgot about:
  • Semi factory
  • Car park and logistics area (with The Boring Company tunnel(s) connecting the two halves)
  • The Boring Company HQ
  • Neuralink is rumored to be moving there too.

Since it is the weekend, I will speculate there are a few things we don't fully understand.

We don't understand all of the construction happening at Austin and Shanghai, there are multiple sites at each location.

We don't know what the plan is for LFP cells for energy storage.

We don't know what the plans are for Supercharging and Megacharging, expansion and allowing others to use the service.
If we see more sites with more than 50 stalls, allowing other brands to charge will not impact on customer service.

We don't have the full picture on FSD progress, and we don't know what if any plans exist for a possible partnership with Toyota.,

We may get some more useful information in the Q1 earnings call.

Seems to me less information is leaking out from Tesla these days, and outsiders are finding it harder to piece together the full jigsaw. Most of what we don't know, is probably good news.
 

PeterJA

Member
Sep 26, 2013
929
8,683
San Diego
Really? I let the comment about the headline being inaccurate slide because it wasn’t worth the time to point out that the headline is actually accurate. Beside, who the &$#- cares? Why does it matter?

Will RivIan put chargers in exactly the same spot as Tesla chargers? I mean, in exactly the same spot, not in the same friggin state? Of course they won’t/aren’t, therefore the headline is accurate.

You (and PeterJA) seem to think that because Rivian and Tesla chargers will both be in Hawaii, Alaska, etc. that means the headline is wrong.

Bollocks. If you can be pedantic claiming the headline is wrong, I can be just as pedantic claiming it to be right. But as I said, this is a stupid discussion.

One thing that's less stupid is being aware that Bloomberg has a history of bias against Tesla, and therefore should be read with skepticism when they write about Tesla.

Their headline is: Rivian Will Go Where Even Tesla Doesn’t Dare

There is no evidence in the article (or elsewhere to my knowledge) that Tesla "doesn't dare" to go anywhere. Tesla seems very busy putting chargers wherever their customers want them. Therefore Bloomberg's headline is pure clickbait fiction.
 

buttershrimp

Click my signature to Go Mad Max Mode
Jun 17, 2017
2,955
7,329
ATX
I do not know why. I DO know that IF someone uses a public platform to pump pump pump and THEN he goes dump dump dump, not only should the SEC be shutting him up but they should be shutting him up in the Big House.
I’m shorting burry
Did you not watch their most recent ‘recruitment’ video? If not, you should. Several people were introduced. It’s quite an eclectic, diverse group of brilliant people.
i shall watch it!
 

Cosmacelf

Well-Known Member
Mar 6, 2013
8,518
20,439
San Diego
I do not know why. I DO know that IF someone uses a public platform to pump pump pump and THEN he goes dump dump dump, not only should the SEC be shutting him up but they should be shutting him up in the Big House.

I could see Burry doing this without realizing he was breaking the law. I suspect he is that clueless. Burry barely survived a legal challenge when he made his huge bet against the housing market in 2005-2008. He was running a fund and his investment bets were way outside what his fund documents said he was going to do. Fund investors were pissed and threatened legal action. After that (and after he made a lot of money for his ungrateful investors), he vowed to never invest other people’s money anymore, he would just play with his own money. Now he’s taking a vow of silence. Probably for the best.

As far as I could tell, the only given reason why he shorted Tesla is that the market cap was too high. Like way too high, thinking it could go as low as $100/share bringing it inline with other auto companies. Which means he doesn't think Tesla can keep on exponentially growing. However there is no evidence that I can see that Tesla can’t grow as big as the majors. Indeed, it is the most likely scenario in my mind. Oddly enough for a contrarian, Burry seems to attach a lot of value to VW's luxury brands. I guess Burry never heard that “Cadillac“ used to be synonymous with luxury?
 

Cosmacelf

Well-Known Member
Mar 6, 2013
8,518
20,439
San Diego
One thing that's less stupid is being aware that Bloomberg has a history of bias against Tesla, and therefore should be read with skepticism when they write about Tesla.

Their headline is: Rivian Will Go Where Even Tesla Doesn’t Dare

There is no evidence in the article (or elsewhere to my knowledge) that Tesla "doesn't dare" to go anywhere. Tesla seems very busy putting chargers wherever their customers want them. Therefore Bloomberg's headline is pure clickbait fiction.

Wrong. Rivian is putting chargers in really obscure places. Tesla, especially when they started, put and continues to put their chargers in the most trafficked areas. It is a smart strategy for a mass market brand like Tesla. Rivian is an adventure brand so they are putting their chargers in really remote places.
 

vwman111

Member
Oct 28, 2014
158
319
Not of this world
It appears that we are excited about the opening on Monday morning. Hopefully we will see a bounce back over $700. Does anyone have experience with watching the premarket trading value on mornings after a surprise beat on P&D or earnings? Is there a opportunity to purchase some additional shares prior to the market opening and hopefully what turns out to be a 10%+ day.
 
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PeterJA

Member
Sep 26, 2013
929
8,683
San Diego
Wrong. Rivian is putting chargers in really obscure places. Tesla, especially when they started, put and continues to put their chargers in the most trafficked areas. It is a smart strategy for a mass market brand like Tesla. Rivian is an adventure brand so they are putting their chargers in really remote places.

Evidence, please. There is none in the article, and the two charger maps suggest otherwise.

Rivian map
Tesla map

Edit: I see now from the maps that Rivian plans more fast chargers in Alaska and Hawaii "by end of 2023" than Tesla shows for 2021 and 2022. So fair enough for those remote places. But I suspect that Tesla will dare to go there when Cybertruck gives Rivian some adventure competition.
 
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Singuy

Active Member
Jun 28, 2018
3,694
25,285
US
“These companies are finding it is harder to actually take that PowerPoint slide and get a product out of it than was envisioned,” said Jon Lopez, an analyst at investment bank Vertical Group who follows the sector. “If you’re having to reposition or pivot already, what’s going to happen in three years or five years?” he asked, noting there would then be far more competition from traditional auto makers."


TLDR

1. Canoo told investors it's abandoning or scaling back key aspects of the strategy laid out when it raise 630 mil last year
2. Romeo Power is expected decreased guild from 140 mil to 40 mil
3. Lordstown Motors it will need double the capex
4. XL Fleet facing problems without much explanation, and decrease guide from rev 75 mil down to 1 mil.

All 4 companies had a stock tank between 12-20%.

BTW to read the article behind the paywall, use a cellphone and clear bowser history first.
 
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MP3Mike

Well-Known Member
Feb 1, 2016
15,387
33,403
Oregon
Wrong. Rivian is putting chargers in really obscure places. Tesla, especially when they started, put and continues to put their chargers in the most trafficked areas. It is a smart strategy for a mass market brand like Tesla. Rivian is an adventure brand so they are putting their chargers in really remote places.
That isn't what their site says...

Each site will have multiple chargers and will be conveniently located on highways and main roads, often by cafes and shops.
That doesn't sound obscure or really remote at all.
 
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Hock1

Member
Jan 21, 2017
678
6,353
Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
It appears that we are excited about the opening on Monday morning. Hopefully we will see a bounce back over $700. Does anyone have experience with watching the premarket trading value on mornings after a surprise beat on P&D or earnings? Is there a opportunity to purchase some additional shares prior to the market opening and hopefully what turns out to be a 10%+ day.
No.
 

OrthoSurg

Member
Jun 2, 2017
820
5,229
Montreal
It appears that we are excited about the opening on Monday morning. Hopefully we will see a bounce back over $700. Does anyone have experience with watching the premarket trading value on mornings after a surprise beat on P&D or earnings? Is there a opportunity to purchase some additional shares prior to the market opening and hopefully what turns out to be a 10%+ day.
Not to break your weekend fun but it will be up significantly premarket, when you will be able to purchase shares it might already up significantly from Friday closure.
 

gabeincal

Supporting Member
Jul 5, 2016
1,158
7,132
SF Bay, CA
Any chance you could swing by Kato Rd? We haven't seen progress there for a little while?
Had a chance to do just that. Not seeing much progress and factory was dead quiet with not much to see. No S&X visible in the delivery yard and it was mostly empty so I didn't fly there today. Here you go, enjoy:


Also, thought this was funny...

sandbags.jpg
 

Mo City

Active Member
Jul 17, 2016
1,910
11,670
near Houston
It appears that we are excited about the opening on Monday morning. Hopefully we will see a bounce back over $700. Does anyone have experience with watching the premarket trading value on mornings after a surprise beat on P&D or earnings? Is there a opportunity to purchase some additional shares prior to the market opening and hopefully what turns out to be a 10%+ day.
Premarket sellers are also aware of the P&D results.
 

OrthoSurg

Member
Jun 2, 2017
820
5,229
Montreal
I could see Burry doing this without realizing he was breaking the law. I suspect he is that clueless. Burry barely survived a legal challenge when he made his huge bet against the housing market in 2005-2008. He was running a fund and his investment bets were way outside what his fund documents said he was going to do. Fund investors were pissed and threatened legal action. After that (and after he made a lot of money for his ungrateful investors), he vowed to never invest other people’s money anymore, he would just play with his own money. Now he’s taking a vow of silence. Probably for the best.

As far as I could tell, the only given reason why he shorted Tesla is that the market cap was too high. Like way too high, thinking it could go as low as $100/share bringing it inline with other auto companies. Which means he doesn't think Tesla can keep on exponentially growing. However there is no evidence that I can see that Tesla can’t grow as big as the majors. Indeed, it is the most likely scenario in my mind. Oddly enough for a contrarian, Burry seems to attach a lot of value to VW's luxury brands. I guess Burry never heard that “Cadillac“ used to be synonymous with luxury?
I wonder if Burry has made the same amount of research on TSLA as he has done on the housing market prior to 2008. being a contrarian and betting on GME when it was way undervalued, I would have expected him to do the same when TSLA started the production hell of the Model 3 and the title was undervalued. I still don’t get why he is comparing Tesla to other auto manufacturers with all the software, hardware, energy, insurance divisions of TSLA.
 

UnknownSoldier

Unknown Member
Apr 17, 2017
1,914
10,286
Earth
I could see Burry doing this without realizing he was breaking the law. I suspect he is that clueless. Burry barely survived a legal challenge when he made his huge bet against the housing market in 2005-2008. He was running a fund and his investment bets were way outside what his fund documents said he was going to do. Fund investors were pissed and threatened legal action. After that (and after he made a lot of money for his ungrateful investors), he vowed to never invest other people’s money anymore, he would just play with his own money. Now he’s taking a vow of silence. Probably for the best.

As far as I could tell, the only given reason why he shorted Tesla is that the market cap was too high. Like way too high, thinking it could go as low as $100/share bringing it inline with other auto companies. Which means he doesn't think Tesla can keep on exponentially growing. However there is no evidence that I can see that Tesla can’t grow as big as the majors. Indeed, it is the most likely scenario in my mind. Oddly enough for a contrarian, Burry seems to attach a lot of value to VW's luxury brands. I guess Burry never heard that “Cadillac“ used to be synonymous with luxury?
I hope Burry covered when it dropped below 600 several times recently. He must surely know he's not going to out-wait Tesla to the grave, he'll reach the grave first. But I guess it doesn't matter if he stops tweeting anyways, he was the last major loudmouthed short. Everyone else has covered or been blown out of their positions, so when Burry finally shuts the hell up there will finally be little more than the bleating of people like GordyJo and TSLAQ who mostly have zero skin in the game and are paid sock puppets by their many puppet masters.
 

buttershrimp

Click my signature to Go Mad Max Mode
Jun 17, 2017
2,955
7,329
ATX
Did you not watch their most recent ‘recruitment’ video? If not, you should. Several people were introduced. It’s quite an eclectic, diverse group of brilliant people.
Ok I watched it, I had watched it once before but really delved in more this evening. Yes they have some pretty smart people as part of the team, and it is exciting to see them try to get engineers working on the issue (this is sorely needed), but the real value at this point is that Elon is the only person actually capable of inspiring people to take it seriously.

I am someone who likes this research and subject, but I respectfully think they don’t have a serious group of researchers yet. My hope is that they will one day. There are some fantastic neuroscience researchers at the University of Texas. we need a Karpathy equivalent but in neuroscience and medicine and the problem is that person is going to be a weird mix of of a neurotologist and an academic. I love the idea and the mission of neuralink but they need to be building a wing of a major university and incredibly strong at basic research. I think the reason I care about neuralink being the weakest of Elon’s projects is because it’s the most important, and I don’t want it to be written off by real scientists that understand the challenge. I’m very thankful they are trying but want it not to suck or die an early death. Or worse, that it be associated with something like Theranos where engineers are tasked with solving a basic science question.
 
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Paul_SF

Supporting Member
Feb 12, 2020
348
3,525
US
Ok I watched it, I had watched it once before but really delved in more this evening. Yes they have some pretty smart people as part of the team, and it is exciting to see them try to get engineers working on the issue (this is sorely needed), but the real value at this point is that Elon is the only person actually capable of inspiring people to take it seriously.

I am someone who likes this research and subject, but I respectfully think they don’t have a serious group of researchers yet. My hope is that they will one day. There are some fantastic neuroscience researchers at the University of Texas. we need a Karpathy equivalent but in neuroscience and medicine and the problem is that person is going to be a weird mix of of a neurotologist and an academic. I love the idea and the mission of neuralink but they need to be building a wing of a major university and incredibly strong at basic research. I think the reason I care about neuralink being the weakest of Elon’s projects is because it’s the most important, and I don’t want it to be written off by real scientists that understand the challenge. I’m very thankful they are trying but want it not to suck or die an early death. Or worse, that it be associated with something like Theranos where engineers are tasked with solving a basic science question.
You read some of Max’s writing?
 

MP3Mike

Well-Known Member
Feb 1, 2016
15,387
33,403
Oregon
The article states prominently that Rivian plans "at least 3,500 fast chargers at 600 sites and at least 10,000 slower-charging “waypoints” at campsites, motels, hiking trailheads, and the like — all installed by 2024."

I'll probably get some pushback on this, but I hope that when Tesla opens up their Supercharger network to other vehicles, via an adapter, that they put a restriction on it that it can't be used by vehicles for which the manufacturer has a closed private charging network.

I think we need to be encouraging interoperability, and if Rivian owners are going to take advantage of the public CCS network, and Tesla Superchargers then their charging network needs to be open to everyone as well.

I suspect that Rivian owners will end up pissed about the "Rivian Waypoint" chargers, because unless they price them way too high I suspect they will get dominated by Teslas...
 

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