Global growth is projected at 6% in 2021, moderating to 4.4% in 2022. The projections for 2021 and 2022 are stronger than in the October 2020 WEO. The upward revision reflects additional fiscal support in a few large economies, the anticipated vaccine-powered recovery in the second half of 2021...
www.imf.org
This report is pretty fascinating about 2020 and COVID's effects on the markets, worldwide.
Some notes:
- After an estimated contraction of –3.3 percent in 2020,
the global economy is projected to grow at 6 percent in 2021, moderating to 4.4 percent in 2022.
- Consistent with the pro-jected global recovery,
oil prices are projected to grow 30 percent in 2021 from their low base in 2020, in part reflecting the OPEC+ (Organization of the Petro-leum Exporting Countries, including Russia and other non-OPEC oil exporters) supply curbs (Figure 1.15).
-
A longer crisis could intensify social unrest, which could damage sentiment and slow activity further. Necessary reform efforts could also be derailed, with negative impacts on long-term growth and debt sustainability.
Recent IMF staff analysis suggests that food price volatility could play a key role in triggering unrest.
-
Global emissions were about 4 percent lower in 2020, broadly in line with reductions in output (Figure 1.22). This decline is likely temporary.
The global economy must produce similar declines every year of the next 30 to lower emissions 80 percent by 2050.
- The prices of copper and iron ore, heavily used in the construction and manufacturing sectors, increased by 30 percent and 35 percent, respectively.
The strong demand for electric vehicles also pushed up prices of metals, such as cobalt and nickel, that are used in their batteries. Precious metal prices decreased by 6 percent after reaching highs in August 2020 as demand for safe assets faded.The IMF base metal price index is projected to increase by 32.1 percent in 2021 and decrease by 4.5 percent in 2022.
