Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GOVA]

Just a heads up, Gary has essentially been making excuses all week about Tesla's performance. He clearly stated on Friday with Dave Lee, that he expected the stock to go up 7% and that was WITH him factoring in the 10 yr going up which would limit Tesla's gains from the P/D. The 10 year has been dropping all week and he refuses to acknowledge how TSLA got destroyed by the 10 yr going up but not getting any relief when it's dropped all week. Pretty much since Monday, he's been making excuses that really do not make sense/add up. He even had the balls to say that the original reason he sold his position in Tesla was because he was worried about S/X production way back in Feb......when we all know for a fact that he clearly stated his reason for selling his position was the Bitcoin purchase from Tesla.

I would have a lot more respect for Gary if he just owned up and said "Yeah the market isn't acting like it should based off actual data". But by doing so, he would have to acknowledge at least somewhat of what Tesla Facts is saying is true. So take that how ya want. While I don't think Gary has any ill intentions, I do think he's protecting his old industry by not acknowledging there's manipulation happening and the reasons why

Gary Black is another "Ihor Dusaniwsky" nobody that flosses a lot - especially on Twittre.

It was very obvious when he claimed that he was long TSLA with 18 months of 'holding' the stock. He's been not good for TSLA in the grand scheme of things.

Can we forget him pretty much like we have about the toilet boy and Unsworth.

 

[Discoducky]

Lol....yeah I'm an irrationally stubborn person. Believe me, I looked at $1,200 the other day and knew I was kissing it goodbye! At least I sold all the others.

I'm actually in pretty great shape still, which is shocking because I only had half a plan and barely stuck to it. You a few other rational souls inspired me to sell high a couple times when maybe I normally wouldn't and it's made all the difference ammo-wise. Now I feel good that I have enough bullets to win this fight.

Put my big boy pants on this week and decided it was time to only buy May 21st or June 18th and sell by the first few days of May. If these pricks can hold us down on an amazing quarter that long I'll retire from calls impressed.

Agreed that it is impressive and makes me wonder how much it is costing to put on this show. Also, what would be the minimum to break the levy? What would open the flood gates? As much as I'd want VINs to be that or earnings date announcement, I'm skeptical. I suppose, in hindsight, extraordinary P/D #'s were not enough. Alas, it would now seem only earnings may swing things to the materially positive direction.

I have many calls for april 30th and May various dates so we'll see.

 

[Singuy]

You need volume to overcome manipulation. Not a lot of buyers came in this week, that's not the manipulator's fault. Lets keep that bias in check.

 

[Discoducky]

You need volume to overcome manipulation. Not a lot of buyers came in this week, that's not the manipulator's fault. Lets keep that bias in check.

I would have thought the P/D would have brought more buyers, but my buddies, who are knowledgeable on Tesla, trade options and hold many shares in Tesla, were wholly unaware even on Sunday evening when we chatted about the blowout quarter. Yeah, we have bias but I think more importantly, hyper-realtime awareness. Our Tesla Bloomberg terminal...

 

[Singuy]

I would have thought the P/D would have brought more buyers, but my buddies, who are knowledgeable on Tesla, trade options and hold many shares in Tesla, were wholly unaware even on Sunday evening when we chatted about the blowout quarter. Yeah, we have bias but I think more importantly, hyper-realtime awareness. Our Tesla Bloomberg terminal...

Retail buyers= not important. Institutional buyers didn't show up this week. Perhaps they are waiting for S/X deliveries, or earnings report as everyone is overly cautious due to random tech corrections the past 6 weeks or so. Also there seems to be an EV bubble burst happening. Li auto and Hyliion are just falling into oblivion. And our favorite Nikola is over 50% below IPO.

 

[lafrisbee]

Why?

Shouldn't you get current in a discussion before trying to join it- otherwise you risk either making points already previously made, or answering questions already answered, or asking a question already asked- all of which add nothing but wasting everyones time.

As a suggested tip to avoid this, when I get to a thread with multiple pages since my last visit, I'll open a reply in a new tab to any post I think I want to reply to, as I go through the new pages to get current.

Then I start closing tabs one at a time for all the ones no longer relevant based on the later discussion, and try and combine any left into a single post

This has the added benefit of being aware of any admin warnings later in the thread before you run afoul of them.





Capacity, technology, vision, scaling etc... nope.

But it is 100 percent a huge financial handout to GM, specifically, in terms of profitability (since they're the only ones above the current limit that can't sell cars at MSRP)


Right now to sell a bolt they often have to discount the thing $7500-$8500 at the dealership.

With a 10K EV credit they can bump the price only a little (or hell just bump it price on "next years model" as they often do in the fall without making it super obvious).... then ditch the dealer/MFG incentives, and effectively pocket almost the entire credit.

so THAT is why I skip over your post so often! I thought you were just incredibly difficult to connect the dots with.
You be you brah.

 

[EVMeister]

Retail buyers= not important. Institutional buyers didn't show up this week. Perhaps they are waiting for S/X deliveries, or earnings report as everyone is overly cautious due to random tech corrections the past 6 weeks or so.

Who are you calling not important?

 

[Singuy]

Who are you calling not important?

LoL. I'm sure you burst into a Tesla service center and say "Do you NOT know WHO I AM?! I OWN an IRRESPONSIBLE amount of Tesla stock! That's WHO!"

 

[CorneliusXX]

"Logistics" isn't an add-on built after the main plant is producing vehicles. There is no analog in the Model 3 / phase 1 plant. Agree there's alot of bay door for materials handling, but Tesla's 'just-in-time' assemblyline process has the parts delivered at the bay parallel to where the part is added on the line. Bringing in finished parts at the end of the building is against Tesla's current practices.

So what else could it be? What takes in many different kinds of unfinished parts, and isn't critical to immeditate use for manufacturing the product? Wu Wa thinks this new central construction is the R&D Center (from his spoken comments during his April 6th walk down the East Extension Road (Video#286).

Cheers!

My guess could be wrong - but I think it's extremely unlikely that it's the R&D center - I just can't see them needing that sort of volume of loading docks for that purpose. R&D centers are low volume almost by definition. Additionally, There's no reason to tie an R&D center into the Model Y factory like what is happening with this expansion.

As for why there isn't an equivalent building for M3 - I'd assume Tesla's manufacturing prowess has improved over time and the MY production process is more automated than M3.

Automated parts handling wouldn't be needed on the critical path to starting MY production but is helpful as volume scaling occurs - so the timing is also appropriate. Tesla was planning a similar building (Fred alert) in Fremont back in 2017 before they switched to the the less automated production line for the M3 - not sure if it was finished.

 

[lascavarian]

The electric brick!

Bad software is turning some Mustang Mach-Es into ‘electric bricks’

Affected owners need a dealer to fix it.

www.theverge.com

 

[Discoducky]

LoL. I'm sure you burst into a Tesla service center and say "Do you NOT know WHO I AM?! I OWN an IRRESPONSIBLE amount of Tesla stock! That's WHO!"

That's what everyone told me when I left XBOX for Tesla, even many who I worked with at Tesla and many others prior to 2020....but now, nobody says that.

In this past year, I'm my corner of Seattle, Tesla's now represent about 10% to 20% of all cars I see. I have no doubt we are ahead of the curve.

 

[MC3OZ]

The only way it would be acceptable for Tesla to "profit" from the up-coming EV incentives would be if they ploughed the extra money into more US manufacturing capacity

This would be on the basis that if they can sell every car they build now, if the prices were then lower, and especially if Model 2 comes along already $10k cheaper than Model 3, then demand would likely go off the scale, which would then justify ramping more and faster, then extra money might be useful

If you see what I mean...

There are major factory expansions going on in Shanghal, they are preparing additional sites in Berlin and Austin. Combine that with Battery day and it isn't hard to see where things are going.

IMO Berlin and Austin will build Model 3 and Model 2, some of that production will be allocated to Robo-taxis. Model 3/2 Robo-taxis will earn more than the cost of the car in the first year of operation.

LFP chemistry will expand Energy Storage Battery production and drop the price.

Supercharging will expand faster with more larger sites.

There are a lot of attempts at media FUD nitpicking about minor concerns, given the big picture it is best to ignore them.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Retail buyers= not important. Institutional buyers didn't show up this week. Perhaps they are waiting for S/X deliveries, or earnings report as everyone is overly cautious due to random tech corrections the past 6 weeks or so. Also there seems to be an EV bubble burst happening. Li auto and Hyliion are just falling into oblivion. And our favorite Nikola is over 50% below IPO.

We're in new territory now I guess. It takes quite a bit more FOMO to wake up the big boys when you're sitting on a $650B+ market cap. As well it should.

Algos are going to need to change for us to get the kind of volume that turns "market making" into less of an option. That will take place soon enough. Perhaps some of these shops will do the napkin math sooner than earnings and make the leap.

I could almost see logic in sitting this quarter out, maybe even now with the knowledge of insane 1Q P&D, but with all these macro tailwinds we may be verging on the next big leg up. Would hate to be a fund forced into TSLA at $960 when S&P inclusion was $695. Vanguard is already making them look bad enough!

 

[MC3OZ]

Indeed, and another important supply of battery packs will become available for 3/Y. Remember that CATL is setting up operations in N. America, and an LFP Models 3 will allow Fremont to dramatically cut production costs while maxing out Body/GA/Paint capacity. They may not even NEED a price increase with LFP models to be substantially more profitable. This will work.

Cheers!

Tesla could even consider making some 4680 LFP cells - say somewhere like Austin with a Lithium Hydroxide plant.

I will be surprised if making LFP cells is hard. Apart from Lithium, the raw materials are easy to source.

 

[UkNorthampton]

The electric brick!

Bad software is turning some Mustang Mach-Es into ‘electric bricks’

Affected owners need a dealer to fix it.

www.theverge.com

"Ford wrote that this only affects Mustang Mach-E SUVs built on or before February 3rd, meaning it’s possible that dozens are affected."

A benefit of a low build rate?

 

[Don TLR]

Who is this guy and what has he done with the real Adam
He makes a great point about comparing the other EV manufacturers and their ICE divisions that are the thorn in their toxic side and how do they get rid of that part.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Btw given the Tesla trading action.........I'm really, really hoping Elon's timetable for V9 FSD and Subscription model is dead on. That would mean a V9/Sub model release in 2-3 weeks. Just in time for earnings. I'll forget all the other missed timelines if ya just make this one happen Elon

 

[Thekiwi]

A lot of posts talking about whether or not Tesla should raise prices or keep them steady once US tax credit kicks in.

I would like to point out that in this situation Tesla can very easily increase the ASP of cars sold in the USA without changing the pricing of cars by a single penny.

They can do this purely by changing the mix of vehicles produced. So the obvious move would be to produce less SR+ models and make more LR & Performance models. What that would do is increase wait times for the SR models significantly, and drive more people to the LR/P models, thereby increasing the overall ASP of vehicles sold.

Once Tesla has Austin ramped up to the level that it can now meet US demand for LR/P Y models, they can start introducing SR Y supply. The ASP would drop, but the overall revenue would of course jump much higher, and economies of scale would help preserve margin.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

They jumped out to an early lead and almost frittered it away in the 1st quarter, but they regained their footing and cruised to an easy win before a sparse crowd. This is the first time they have been over .500 for the last 10 since 3/22.

Today
Score: 670.97
Margin of W/L: -20.65
Attendance: 26,209,862

Season
Record: 33-33
Total margin of wins: 779.55
Total margin of losses: -801.42
YTD gain/loss: -21.87 -3.10%
Avg margin of victory: 23.62
Avg margin of defeat: -24.29
Best Win: 110.58 2021-03-09
Worst Loss: -68.83 2021-01-11
Last 10: 6-4
Streak: W1
Avg Attendance: 41,052,802
Avg Attendance of Last 10: 34,725,953

 

[Pras]

Who is this guy and what has he done with the real Adam
He makes a great point about comparing the other EV manufacturers and their ICE divisions that are the thorn in their toxic side and how do they get rid of that part.

Agree, for once he is sounding smart. Must have drank some herbal brain stimulating medicine from a Himalayan valley!