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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

asburgers

Member
Sep 23, 2020
452
3,383
Chair, Canada
Yup the definition of rich is subjective. I'm just going off of 400k because Biden has mentioned that as cutoff for taxing the rich. He's made promises that no one making under 400k will see any tax increases. So I'm assuming the Biden administrations view of rich is above 400k.
Is it clear yet whether the 400K is per individual or per family?
 

Krugerrand

Is Cat
Jul 13, 2012
10,832
52,633
Tesla friendly place
Maybe time for Elon to start publicly tweeting out about all future European EV production development, whether it's cars or battery production, going to other European countries if Germany can't get it's act together. I feel like Tesla has played nice with Berlin officials up until this point so I wouldn't have any issue with them taking a more aggressive stance.
I think if officials don’t pull their heads out of their butts it could come to that.

No country and their countrymen like to be embarrassed, especially not a proud people. Tesla isn’t advocating doing anything illegal, untoward, unsavory or otherwise. Just gets off your duffs, have some sense of logic, reasonability and urgency.

I believe German bureaucracy will cave or Elon will knock down the factory, replant the trees and go play in a more receptive sandbox. The latter would be disastrous to Germany in the end.

It’s time right NOW for all peoples to get serious. It’s time to end the shenanigans of various industries. Stupidity, stubbornness and the like gets us all dead.
 

StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
8,798
65,160
Maple Falls, WA
$10K is a GIGANTIC demand lever.

If Tesla were to do nothing, the wait times would immediately go out to several months.

I also can’t see them raising prices by $10K. The negative publicity that would generate would be voluminous:)

So the question becomes how much can be passed through to customers, without growing the order books too much on 3, Y and Cybertruck? I would guess even passing through $7k as @StarFoxisDown! suggests would still cause wait times that are too long.

It will be interesting to see how Tesla handles it. Removal of SR versions as someone suggested? Forced bundling of FSD? Some price increases? At least we can be assured any planned price cuts would no longer occur:)

I would also guess between now and then, more people might start giving Tesla non-refundable $100 deposits for Cybertrucks to lock in the current price.

Yes, just one correction. It wouldn't be called "forced bundling of FSD", if they did this it would simply be included in the price at no extra charge. :) Of course the price would go up too.:):)
 

StarFoxisDown!

Active Member
Jan 23, 2019
2,354
17,063
Seattle
I think if officials don’t pull their heads out of their butts it could come to that.

No country and their countrymen like to be embarrassed, especially not a proud people. Tesla isn’t advocating doing anything illegal, untoward, unsavory or otherwise. Just gets off your duffs, have some sense of logic, reasonability and urgency.

I believe German bureaucracy will cave or Elon will knock down the factory, replant the trees and go play in a more receptive sandbox. The latter would be disastrous to Germany in the end.

It’s time right NOW for all peoples to get serious. It’s time to end the shenanigans of various industries. Stupidity, stubbornness and the like gets us all dead.

Yup :)

While realistically I couldn't see Tesla tearing down the Giga Berlin factory, I absolutely could see Tesla making it a shell of what was originally planned. Much lower output, no battery production, no energy product production, no design center, no Euro HQ's, etc......meanwhile Tesla sets all that up in a neighboring country. Elon would rub it in Germany's face on a daily basis. Hell Elon would probably fly to Euro HQ's in said neighboring country all the time just to wave at Germany and gloat.
 

Singuy

Active Member
Jun 28, 2018
3,532
24,106
US
Maybe time for Elon to start publicly tweeting out about all future European EV production development, whether it's cars or battery production, going to other European countries if Germany can't get it's act together. I feel like Tesla has played nice with Berlin officials up until this point so I wouldn't have any issue with them taking a more aggressive stance.
Let's not read too much into this. I remember China permitting approval fud back in the days. Tesla and Elon will always get their way. No one can withstand the backlash from the court of public opinion.
 

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
8,484
104,582
Canada
Except they already have the money to expand at will and speed. More money doesn’t get ie., Brandenburg permits any faster. It doesn’t get ie., kids through school faster so they can join the Tesla workforce.
While Tesla still has debt, they need money (by definition). Tesla still has $10B long-term debt. Brandenburg permitting is not affected by U.S. Federal tax rebates. Elon's already donated $20M to public schools in Cameron County, TX this month.

Raising prices to increase margins/profit/fcf because a tax credit is implemented doesn’t compute with Elon repeatedly saying, ‘Our cars are still too expensive.’
They're not raising prices. Tesla can simple retain some of the tax credit in leu of point of sale instant rebates ($2,500 doubles Telsa's net profit on a U.S. Model 3/Y). Model 2 will be the next round of big price decreases for cars. Not in the USA, the rest-of-world, where Tesla cars are still too expensive. If Model 2 is produced in the USA. it will be years after China.

The point is that Elon doesn't make all the decisions anymore. He's letting Zach do Zach's job as CFO (that's good leadership). This gives Elon more time to focus on product development, which is his passion and his forte.

Cheers!
 
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Nocturnal

Supporting Member
Aug 23, 2018
6,207
31,313
In the middle
That's a lot of sass for not knowing what you're talking about. There's a nice way to express these sentiments!

1) Large tax credits can generally be spread over multiple tax years. The ITC for residential solar for instance can be used across 3(or maybe 5?) years.

2) The bottom 47% of US earners who pay little net federal income taxes aren't buying $40k new vehicles.
Posting facts is sass? I see.

1. - False. The EV credit can not be spread over multiple years. I doubt the new one will have that option either. Furthermore spreading a credit over several years while you are forced to finance the full amount isn't nearly as helpful.

2. YES! That's the entire point. This credit would bring down the cost of a 40k vehicle to 30k. See the chart I posted on the average income per market segment.
 

Krugerrand

Is Cat
Jul 13, 2012
10,832
52,633
Tesla friendly place
Yup :)

While realistically I couldn't see Tesla tearing down the Giga Berlin factory, I absolutely could see Tesla making it a shell of what was originally planned. Much lower output, no battery production, no energy product production, no design center, no Euro HQ's, etc......meanwhile Tesla sets all that up in a neighboring country. Elon would rub it in Germany's face on a daily basis. Hell Elon would probably fly to Euro HQ's in said neighboring country all the time just to wave at Germany and gloat.
Elon has never seemed particularly vindictive even when a situation might warrant it. It would be a reasonable response to downgrade the location substantially and move on. I could also see him pumping out cars against rules and regulations and saying, ‘Sue me.’

Like how ridiculous would it be if they start producing cars in July on temporary building permits? 🥴 Well, wait for it, good chance it happens.
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
6,652
23,427
Philadelphia, PA
I think if officials don’t pull their heads out of their butts it could come to that.

No country and their countrymen like to be embarrassed, especially not a proud people. Tesla isn’t advocating doing anything illegal, untoward, unsavory or otherwise. Just gets off your duffs, have some sense of logic, reasonability and urgency.

I believe German bureaucracy will cave or Elon will knock down the factory, replant the trees and go play in a more receptive sandbox. The latter would be disastrous to Germany in the end.

It’s time right NOW for all peoples to get serious. It’s time to end the shenanigans of various industries. Stupidity, stubbornness and the like gets us all dead.

This is pretty standard procedure for Germany, I think we may be making something out of nothing. None of Tesla plans would be delayed until months form now, someone will intervene and get things straightened out.
 
Jun 1, 2018
956
4,083
Canada


"The Tesla Semi is about to electrify Canada’s logging industry, with Vancouver Island-based Mosaic Forest Management announcing that it had placed an order for three Tesla Semis."

"Interestingly enough, another Vancouver Island company, EcoWest Driven, is taking on the responsibility of building commercial truck charging stations in the area. The company is expected to start the buildout of 45 commercial truck charging stations later this fall. This was confirmed by Jarvis Shaver, Director and Co-Founder of EcoWest Driven. "



What I found interesting about this article, was that the company leadership made specific reference to the value of regen when operating a fully loaded semi in a hilly area. I think this will come to be seen as a key value proposition of loaded semis, with reduced brake wear and noise from gearing down (for surrounding area populations); once a significant number of Tesla Semis are out in the field.

Imagine an empty semi going up the hill to pick up the logs, (not old growth please), and then going down the hill fully loaded regenning all the way down, it could end up using very little net energy as a result of the extra weight providing additional regeneration on the way down.
 
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insaneoctane

Active Member
Apr 6, 2016
3,437
5,627
Southern California
Tesla has zero issues with demand with no EV credit. If the EV credit is in fact 10k like it's rumored to be, Tesla absolutely should raise their prices by at least $2.5k.

You would be getting $7,500 off the vehicles even if they increased the prices by $2,500. I fail to see why Tesla shouldn't do it. Sorry I get what you're saying about your specific position, but that's not reality for Tesla's demand. If you decided you don't want a Y because they raises the price $3k, there will be a long line of people willing to take advantage of the ev credit even with the higher selling price. They can raise by half of whatever the EV credit ends up being and will still be not be able to fulfill demand. As a Tesla shareholder, you should be rooting for them to increase their margins. You'll likely make more on your gains than the price hike.

Elon simply would want to pass all of it onto the customer - and more if he could. This isn’t even up for debate. He’s been quite clear.

My perspective is that Tesla is battery constrained so more customers is mostly useless to them. For Tesla to benefit the price has to go up. So raise the price on some units by adding high value features that cost very little like FSD. Bingo, 100% take rate.

This seems a no brainer for the S & X but tricky to do under that price range. Tesla should be looking at something like this as long as they are battery constrained. This stimulus plan is intended to help them as well as buyers As I see it. Subscription plan should be carefully reviewed.

Elon's been quite clear that Zach is the Master of Coin. Tesla will balance its priorities.

$10K rebates and 2-year waiting lists aren't balance. Cybertruck was at 2-years BEFORE any rebate was discussed.

Tesla needs to use some of this money to accelerate production (where possible), and balance supply and demand (where necessary).

Cheers!
Lots of debate on whether Tesla should raise prices. It’s fairly simple conceptually and mathematically IMO. YES. Why is it more complicated than supply and demand? Let’s assume Tesla sells every EV they can produce before the latest EV rebates expire....As long as their price action doesn’t change that position, why wouldn’t they look to increase their margin a bit? Secure the future further, build yet another Giga? I personally don’t think they should go up $10K, but $2K to $5K with some higher options included, sure. I would not include FSD or even discount it because it has huge future value even when the subsidies are gone. Support the mission. Support Tesla printing money because NO other automotive manufacturer will be as responsible with the upper hand!
 

asburgers

Member
Sep 23, 2020
452
3,383
Chair, Canada


"The Tesla Semi is about to electrify Canada’s logging industry, with Vancouver Island-based Mosaic Forest Management announcing that it had placed an order for three Tesla Semis."

"Interestingly enough, another Vancouver Island company, EcoWest Driven, is taking on the responsibility of building commercial truck charging stations in the area. The company is expected to start the buildout of 45 commercial truck charging stations later this fall. This was confirmed by Jarvis Shaver, Director and Co-Founder of EcoWest Driven. "



What I found interesting about this article, was that the company leadership made specific reference to the value of regen when operating a fully loaded semi in a hilly area. I think this will come to be seen as a key value proposition of loaded semis, with reduced brake wear and noise from gearing down (for surrounding areas), to more and more people once a significant number of Tesla Semis are out in the field.

This is exciting:
Mosaic would electrify its fleet of 300 logging trucks as part of its efforts to become carbon neutral by 2035.
 

StarFoxisDown!

Active Member
Jan 23, 2019
2,354
17,063
Seattle
One thing to point out is others have mentioned that this capping has to be unwound at some point which will cause a breakout(which I agree with). But the longer we underperform the macros, the wider the delta gets, which means the bigger the breakout needs to be in order to TSLA to match the percentage gains. The gulf is like 30-35% at this point and grows everyday the Nasdaq/QQQ's go higher and TSLA does nothing or underperforms. Just yesterday it grew by like 5%.

Definitely possible TSLA closes that gap with a 30% week at some point but if it doesn't happen in the next couple of weeks, the odds of the macros doing a pull back increases significantly since they're pretty much at their ATH's right now. At which point if Tesla continues it's weakness, it'll go straight back into the downtrend channel and it could get extremely ugly at that point. I'd like to think good data/news would counteract the stock going back into that downtrend channel but after seeing how the stock has traded this week after such a huge beat, I don't know what to think anymore. If this keeps up until earnings, we're gonna need one of those 2020 mega rallies just to get back to 800-900 (which thankfully as we saw in 2020, TSLA is more than capable of doing that :) )

But just some thought for anyone playing short term options(like the next 1-2 months). I'm tempted to use house money to play with some, but I need to see what Monday and Tuesday do first. Those two trading days will be really telling, at least I think so.

To be clear, I personally think this week's trading action has been about Wall St not being positioned properly to take advantage of a new TSLA rally. I think they were 100% sure the P/D would be bad. So they need time to reposition themselves which explains the lack of volume on such big news this week. If this is the case, we should see buying volume flood in next week or the week after, regardless of what the macros are doing. But the worry this weakness continuing and putting TSLA in that long term downtrend again is too much for me to put money into betting with short term calls
 
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aubreymcfato

Supporting Member
Sep 16, 2016
1,091
8,400
Italy
What I found interesting about this article, was that the company leadership made specific reference to the value of regen when operating a fully loaded semi in a hilly area. I think this will come to be seen as a key value proposition of loaded semis, with reduced brake wear and noise from gearing down (for surrounding areas), to more and more people; once a significant number of Tesla Semis are out in the field.

Imagine an empty semi going up the hill to pick up the logs, (not old growth please), and then going down the hill fully loaded regenning all the way down, it could end up using very little net energy as a result of the extra weight providing additional regeneration on the way down.
They probably were inspired by this stroke of genius:
 

asburgers

Member
Sep 23, 2020
452
3,383
Chair, Canada

While Tesla plans to make the cells in-house, it has also asked its oldest battery supplier, Panasonic, to begin producing them as well.

The catch: the thicker and more voluminous 4680 cells, named after their dimensions of a 46-millimeter diameter and 80-millimeter height, are still largely unproven. Industry experts even question whether the batteries, which resemble a downsized version of the aluminum cans used for sodas and beer, are possible to mass produce.

“There are significant technological issues to get past, issues that many in the industry have been trying to tackle for years,” said Ram Chandrasekaran, a transportation and mobility analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “If achievable, these battery cells would be groundbreaking. But the jury’s still out on whether they’re deliverable.”
Should we tell them about Kato Rd?

Much of the benefit of the new 4680 cells comes from the fact that they are more than five times the size of the smaller 1865 and 2170 cells Panasonic currently supplies to Tesla. This means that the typical 4,000 to 8,000 cells found in an EV today can be reduced to around 500, which, in turn, means fewer parts such as bonding pieces used to string individual cells together. New cell shapes such as the 4680 are “key to making more affordable EV models that are capable of meaningfully spreading,” said Akira Nagasaki, technical strategy head on Takamoto’s team.
 

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