Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

AND ANOTHER THING..
Pete saying, "electric vehicles shouldn't be a luxury item." is not being recognized for how impactful it will have on the "common man." You know, that segment that for various reasons feel like they cannot have an Electric vehicle. It just puts that little seed in there, growing....

 

[elasalle]

Agree. Tesla turning the rebate into profit is wrong on so many levels. A $29,000 Tesla would be irresistible. The order book would be filled for a year, and people would gladly wait.

Sell current Tesla, wait for EV credit, buy Tesla. (Sell High and wait for the dip )

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Also, some of these responses on Tesla increasing prices to offset some of the EV credit seem to be pretty shortsighted. If Tesla can increase the price by 2-3k in the US without actually increasing the cost to US consumers (again simple math here, 10k in credits - 2-3k in price increases = 7-8k in total price reduction), they can then take that extra margin and would be able to drop the price of their vehicles in other markets where there are no incentives or just in general have a higher sales price in that market/country while maintaining their current margins.

 

[larmor]

Also, some of these responses on Tesla increasing prices to offset some of the EV credit seem to be pretty shortsighted. If Tesla can increase the price by 2-3k in the US, they can then take that extra margin and would be able to drop the price of their vehicles in other markets where there are no incentives or just in general have a higher sales price in that market/country while maintaining their current margins.

Raising prices for a high demand product when there is a instituional rebate available is a rational response for a company that wants to make money. Tesla is not a non profit. They are commended to increase revenues while balancing customer feedback in setting of demand. If Tesla makes money selling ZEV credits, then that is great too, because they are investing heavy capital in EV while other auto manufacturers sit back and wait for the EV tide to lift them up.

 

[Lycanthrope]

The only way it would be acceptable for Tesla to "profit" from the up-coming EV incentives would be if they ploughed the extra money into more US manufacturing capacity

This would be on the basis that if they can sell every car they build now, if the prices were then lower, and especially if Model 2 comes along already $10k cheaper than Model 3, then demand would likely go off the scale, which would then justify ramping more and faster, then extra money might be useful

If you see what I mean...

 

[nativewolf]

This principle has been applied with the world's largest EV:

eMining AG Battery conversion of diesel driven mining dump trucks

eMining Switzerland is speciallized in the conversion of heavy duty dump trucks for the mining Industry. Battery conversion a sustainable opportunity for mines.

www.emining.ch

For many logging and mining applications even recharging is often unneeded because regeneration loaded on the way down often produces more energy than is used going uphill empty. This seems to be one of the very most beneficial applications of BEV's.

As a logger/forester all I can say is you know nothing, I appreciate the positivity but ....you are so wrong. This is a meaningless PR move by a group. Tesla semi wont be available to them for 3 more years. No idea why they announced this but it is silly.

logging will be one of the toughest sectors, our sites have no charging, equipment can be miles from a power line, we burn huge amounts of energy rich diesel. Going to be tough, logging trucks have some better charging options but if there is an industry where the truckers are pirate it is loggging. No logger wants a new truck, have to have electronic log books, harder to cheat. Log trucks leave our landing with who knows how much weight, it is guesswork. Scales break, we have no good place to weigh. They drive 20 hours straight, etc. Tough business with almost no margins and unlike farming no subsidies. Most loggers have huge equipment loan books and barely make enough to cover household payments. Stupid decision to be a logger but I am outside today, perfect spring day, hawks are soaring, trees sighing in the breeze and no trucks to load. Maybe get to plant trees tomorrow if it rains. But if you send a Tesla semi here we may put 35 tons on it not the 25 they planned . Then we will ask you to drive a second load .

 

[elasalle]

The only way it would be acceptable for Tesla to "profit" from the up-coming EV incentives would be if they ploughed the extra money into more US manufacturing capacity

This would be on the basis that if they can sell every car they build now, if the prices were then lower, and especially if Model 2 comes along already $10k cheaper than Model 3, then demand would likely go off the scale, which would then justify ramping more and faster, then extra money might be useful

If you see what I mean...

Best way would be to delay the 25K car in US, and provide more options ( 2 door coupe, convertible, paint, more model3/Y variations, including old-school trucks, sprinters and vans). Many people want something different once M3/MY become very common.
Anything in 35-45 K range, with credits would be affordable for a large segment of the population.

So just expedite the other models. (It has the $$ to multi-task now)

 

[lafrisbee]

Did I just speed read through like 15 posts on changing the price of a Tesla EV for some supposed reason about a not yet passed bit of legislation?
Tell me it didn't happen.

 

[Knightshade]

The thing that bugs me the most is that our cars are not affordable enough. We need To fix that

This has always been our dream to make an affordable electric car,

we're not trying to be super profitable

Some folks in here- "It makes no sense Tesla would pass on the full tax credit to make their cars as affordable as possible!"

 

[juanmedina]

I'm at work. Watching the ticker is one of the only fun things I can do during my day. But thanks for your concern.

getting paid to watch a ticker is a good job... specially from home

 

[Lycanthrope]

Did I just speed read through like 15 posts on changing the price of a Tesla EV for some supposed reason about a not yet passed bit of legislation?
Tell me it didn't happen.

Strikes me as a very relevant discussion for a Tesla investor forum

 

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR FOOT-DOWN:

There are ZERO reasons to be discussing in this thread old-growth forests, logging practices and so forth. I am not going to be deleting prior posts (won’t say if another will, though), but the next such post earns its writer a time-out.

No exceptions.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This is Europe - the cradle of bureaucracy.

France would be far worse than this. German efficiency is still a thing - at least relative to some other European countries. Progress has succeeded my expectations. UK would have been no different - look at our big infrastructure projects. Comparisons to Shanghai and Austin are tough given their speed.

Tesla are of course right to keep the pressure on. Bear with Berlin - it's gonna be great.

Exactly, the email and pressure is simply a required part of the process as well. This email and associated PR pressure was probably typed out and scheduled when the project started.

 

[capster]

Lots of debate on whether Tesla should raise prices. It’s fairly simple conceptually and mathematically IMO. YES. Why is it more complicated than supply and demand? Let’s assume Tesla sells every EV they can produce before the latest EV rebates expire....As long as their price action doesn’t change that position, why wouldn’t they look to increase their margin a bit? Secure the future further, build yet another Giga? I personally don’t think they should go up $10K, but $2K to $5K with some higher options included, sure. I would not include FSD or even discount it because it has huge future value even when the subsidies are gone. Support the mission. Support Tesla printing money because NO other automotive manufacturer will be as responsible with the upper hand!

It’s more complicated for a couple reasons.

One is, as @Krugerrand pointed out, the optics aren’t great. Simply jacking up the prices as much as possible is the kind of jerk move you’d expect from the legacy automakers. It won’t play well with either consumers or politicians. Elon will continue to differentiate Tesla by not jerking people around.

Another has to do with how the innovation game is played (and sometimes the political theater game as well, but I digress): Suck up all the oxygen to asphyxiate the competition early. Darth Larry "it’s not enough to win, everyone else must lose" Ellison will surely know this. Keeping prices relatively low will cause consumers to defer purchases of the brands from the jerks [edit: and put pressure on competitors to keep their prices lower denying them some revenue].

Speaking of denial of oxygen, thwarting the growth of competing charging networks is a very good reason for Tesla to go after Federal money for EV infrastructure, even at the price of opening up their charging network to others. Having their buyers use Tesla’s network will prove a two edged sword for the other OEM’s.

This is not to say that Tesla’s pricing won’t be affected at all. Forecast price drops may not happen. Previously announced rises, such as with FSD, will happen. New vehicle configurations may be introduced and some previous ones retired, though I would expect subtlety rather than ham-handedness in the pricing.

 

[Mike Smith]

Franz recruiting Chinese designers.

 

[Krugerrand]

It's probably a worse experience overall though if the waitlist for a Tesla grows to 12+ months. Imagine the dissatisfaction of delivery hell from when Model 3s were first starting to ramp, multiplied tenfold.

More revenue from Tesla can translate to cheaper, non-subsidized cars from increased R&D + more cash to expand operations, whereas not raising prices will result in no improvements to Tesla's long-term production.

But it’s not going to be that long of a wait.

It’s called Berlin Gigafactory to supply Europe so all 3’s & Y’s coming out of Fremont are for US customers (and Canada/Mexico) AND Austin Gigafactory to immediately take care of additional Y mfging for the US.

 

[ggies07]

But it’s not going to be that long of a wait.

It’s called Berlin Gigafactory to supply Europe so all 3’s & Y’s coming out of Fremont are for US customers (and Canada/Mexico) AND Austin Gigafactory to immediately take care of additional Y mfging for the US.

ooooooooooh, excellent point! Next year will be much different.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

But it’s not going to be that long of a wait.

It’s called Berlin Gigafactory to supply Europe so all 3’s & Y’s coming out of Fremont are for US customers only AND Austin Gigafactory to immediately take care of additional Y mfging for the US.

Yeah, I think most folks like myself are underestimating the scaling effort going on. It's just human impatience. I keep screaming for more cell production, but is there a realistic scenario with higher than 90-120% growth each of the next two years? Probably not.

If this infrastructure bill goes well it'll push wait times to like 6-8 months max, but Tesla will also shift to higher end higher margin variants. If you want a cheap standard range, best jump on that now. Letting the other guys catch up was always a necessary part of the plan and this is the start. Fortunately profit margins are about to go up 100x for Tesla as a side benefit.

We're going to be popping out Y's by the millions all across the globe soon enough. Now we just need to solve the demand issues.

 

[joh01652]

Elon simply would want to pass all of it onto the customer - and more if he could. This isn’t even up for debate. He’s been quite clear.

Agree 100%. I'd go so far as to say I could see Tesla even dropping the price of the vehicles a tad just because they wouldn't have to waste money on logistics and shipping all over the world, every car Tesla makes at Fremont for the next couple years+ could be sold in the continental U.S. if Tesla so decided should a $10k rebate/discount ever pass--Tesla could eliminate their contribution to shipping emissions for a bit while turning the screws that much harder and deeper into Big Auto/Big Oil?

Americans are the ones disproportionally causing the most climate damage from our addiction to cheap oil; I mean, I'm seeing more and more cars idling at gas stations while re-fueling, Americans leave their cars idling when they go into stores now. As a whole, Americans are entirely clueless to the damage they cause themselves from our cheap fuel. We desperately need to incentivize Americans to switch to electric.

Personally, I think the "think bigger, crazier," rumors from a week or so ago have to do with the uncapped $10k credit/refund discussions. I already think Tesla is going to run away with the decade, but if a monster demand lever like a $10k credit/refund gets passed, that'll just cement Tesla's permanent dominance in EV market share. It'll be "Game Over" much sooner for Big Auto should this legislation pass (which is why I'm not holding my breath that it will--at the same time we're playing with fire and a collapse of civilization with climate change, so maybe it will).

 

[Artful Dodger]

ooooooooooh, excellent point! Next year will be much different.

I keep screaming for more cell production, but is there a realistic scenario with higher than 90-120% growth each of the next two years? Probably not.

Indeed, and another important supply of battery packs will become available for 3/Y. Remember that CATL is setting up operations in N. America, and an LFP Models 3 will allow Fremont to dramatically cut production costs while maxing out Body/GA/Paint capacity. They may not even NEED a price increase with LFP models to be substantially more profitable. This will work.

Cheers!