I just realized, 2022 is gonna be huge. Right now Tesla are probably making ~200k cars per quarter. This year will probably end with both Freemont and Shanghai having made ~500k cars each and Q4 around 300k vehicles from these two. Let’s say 1M for the year. Even if they don’t start Austin, Berlin and Shanghai Phase III, that is still a 20% growth next year just by continuing with Q4 pace the rest of the year. But Berlin and Austin will likely make ~250k cars each minimum next year, so that is 1.7M vehicles. And I would not be surprised if Shanghai manages to sqeeze out 100k Model 2 from Phase III that is being built now. Plus Freemont will start using die casting for Model 3 and Model Y around next year so that should increase production rate which will be needed given Biden’s new plan. Plus a few semis and Roadster. So now we are close to 2M.
Ok I might be a bit optimistic, but not that optimistic. Most of it seems very reasonable. I think Austin and Berlin might make more than what Shanghai did the first year, given that Berlin has a 6month headstart, are building a larger factory and mostly copypasting Shanghai. Gigapress underbody is new, but 6 months trial should sort out most problems. Austin is building both Y and Cybertruck. Y should ramp very fast given Berlin experience and Cybertruck is easier to make. So in all, 1M this year might be a bit optimistic, but 2M next year is not totally unreasonble.