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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I just realized, 2022 is gonna be huge. Right now Tesla are probably making ~200k cars per quarter. This year will probably end with both Freemont and Shanghai having made ~500k cars each and Q4 around 300k vehicles from these two. Let’s say 1M for the year. Even if they don’t start Austin, Berlin and Shanghai Phase III, that is still a 20% growth next year just by continuing with Q4 pace the rest of the year. But Berlin and Austin will likely make ~250k cars each minimum next year, so that is 1.7M vehicles. And I would not be surprised if Shanghai manages to sqeeze out 100k Model 2 from Phase III that is being built now. Plus Freemont will start using die casting for Model 3 and Model Y around next year so that should increase production rate which will be needed given Biden’s new plan. Plus a few semis and Roadster. So now we are close to 2M.

Ok I might be a bit optimistic, but not that optimistic. Most of it seems very reasonable. I think Austin and Berlin might make more than what Shanghai did the first year, given that Berlin has a 6month headstart, are building a larger factory and mostly copypasting Shanghai. Gigapress underbody is new, but 6 months trial should sort out most problems. Austin is building both Y and Cybertruck. Y should ramp very fast given Berlin experience and Cybertruck is easier to make. So in all, 1M this year might be a bit optimistic, but 2M next year is not totally unreasonble.
And in 2022 they will start building a second factory building in both Austin and Berlin (everyone seems to forget that not only Austin but also Berlin has lots of land to continuing building). Plus possibly another Asian location. These will likely come online in 2023.
 
$100K is not Warren's price target, it's his "pie in the sky" scenario. He doesn't say he expects it will hit $100K, he admits there is a huge range of uncertainty and the most likely scenarios are much lower. He doesn't do "price targets".
Warren is a super Tesla bull, but honestly his "pessimistic model" is almost step for step with what my own modeling predicts for future valuations. I get a bit lower SP in 2030 than he does but not by much, and all the way up to 2027 his SP predictions are within 10% of what my own modeling is forecasting.

Now, his higher models are ludicrous in my opinion because he goes hog wild with battery production numbers in a super unrealistic way. He also assumes immense auto production due to having so many batteries available, but this is unrealistic for two reasons:

1) Battery production won't scale as fast as he'd like it to, and

2) Auto production will be capped YoY due to factory ramp ups. Tesla won't be able to magically build a factory which produces 3 million cars the year afterwards, it takes time to ramp production.

Warren's modeling methods are good, he just plugs in unrealistic numbers and gets silly outputs. But when he tempers his excitement he gets more realistic projections like his pessimist model.
 
True.

Biggest risk with Austin and Berlin ramp is battery cell production. (i.e.: can Tesla ramp like they explained on Battery Day?)

onerous
/ˈəʊn(ə)rəs,ˈɒn(ə)rəs/

adjective

(of a task or responsibility) involving a great deal of effort, trouble, or difficulty.
"he found his duties increasingly onerous"


My interpretation is that in 2022 Elon thinks they will have enough supply for everything higher priority(more dollar per Wh) that they can spare some for semi.​
 
Could this morning's action be what they mean when talking about cranking the volume up to 11?
(looks like it may be 20% of Avg Daily Volume in the first hour)

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The blue latex of the rare Pycnandra acuminata, found in New Caledonia, contains 25 per cent nickel.
 
Can you explain how this could possibly happen? Let's say retail and big funds cannot sell stock, you can manipulate it however you like. Can you explain how it is done? Would you just get 2 big funds to buy the stock up off each other at increasingly higher prices? Eventually the big funds would run out of money to buy the blocks of stocks.
Well, could it be how the game is played by the big boys, like pink sheets boiler rooms of old but now with hedge funds guys orchestrating the manip. Once enough momentum is reached, and that's where the secret sauce enters (there must be enough depth going), the SP continues to go up without more buying from some HF's, fueled by the frenzied retail novice FOMO buyers, and maybe some stray algos, until the same HF's decide to sell and reap their short term profits.

Guess what, maybe that's what the bright guys at DE Shaw / Renaissance Tech are doing (they're not, so maybe smaller/ nimbler ones?). Figuring in the option market makers games (Citadel etc) and the market technical analysis our top guys document here, I'm just trying to figure out when to sell some stonk and which LEAPS to convert to. Fun and little /no risk to play while the trend is up and the overall market discounts Tesla.
 
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Pretty much everything on my watchlist is red. Except Tesla. This is different from last couple of weeks.
You mean the last couple of months.

I subscribe to the Market Manipulation Theory. I know some here don't, but I do.

In the stories I tell myself (not to argue they're true, it's just how I interpret the markets, maybe I believe Papafox and Lodger too much), it makes financial sense for Market Makers, with the help from the media, to talk up and raise the price of other stocks through their various narratives (lately it's been inflation and rotation into value stocks), so that eventually enough new, naive money comes in to crappy stocks so that when the time is right, MMs can pull the rug out from underneath the high-flying crappy stocks so they can take the profits and drive them into the true winners, like TSLA.

The smart money knows TSLA will win the decade. And smart money knows that, "standing at the mouth of a typhoon, even pigs can fly." So let the pigs fly for awhile, advertise heavily that pigs can indeed fly, but in time the pigs get swallowed up by the TSLA Typhoon like everything else.

Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered all over again.