Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I would just like to point out that Tesla is a corporation, not a person or a dog. If and when they are no longer pushing sustainable technologies to be cheaper and better, it would almost certainly be because top leadership had left for other ventures. Loyalty can be a good thing - part of a dog's irresistible charm is their undying loyalty. Yet it's always a mistake to apply loyalty to a corporation.

Corporations need to constantly earn our respect, not because they were doing great things for humanity, but because they are doing great things for humanity.

Agreed, Ford is not a dog. More like a sloth, doing great things for their investors, very S-L-O-W-L-Y...

Wow! Look at that Dividend Y-I-E-L-D! /S

Cheers!

 

[traxila]

You know, the shorts may (or may not) be right about QuantumScape, but this report itself is amateurish crap. Bizarre font sizes and colors, random words bolded, italicized, and underlined. Rants going on and on and on for pages. This thing reads like it was written by the Unabomber on meth.

It was written for retail investors.

 

[uujjj2]

Just being clear. Kato would be 4680 battery production?

I think that's what he means. Kato is a road in Fremont's industrial district that has a whole bunch of Tesla facilities (including the main plant), and the battery plant is just one of them.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Put some orders in and walk away! Tomorrow should be very interesting.

How so?
I am expecting M.O.T.S. until about the middle of next week.
Just curious what your thoughts are.

 

[goinfraftw]

Agreed, Ford is not a dog. More like a sloth, doing great things for their investors, very S-L-O-W-L-Y...

View attachment 654070

Wow! Look at that Dividend Y-I-E-L-D! /S

Cheers!

Just one thought: Dividend yields do lead to great philanthropy

 

[Tslynk67]

I worry that Amazon will absorb almost all of Rivian's capacity to build electric delivery vans. Obviously E vans are great, but that means no "regular" EV pick up on the market.

To be fair, displacing ICE delivery vans with BEV is far more significant than personal vehicles

 

[JusRelax]

Second gigapress arriving in texas:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1382790754045734914

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Don't know if posted before, but David Lee just made a video about it.

This can mean a lot of things.
It can be a plausible explanation for why the FSD download button is not there yet - as well as an 'excuse' for the lateness of FSD v9.

My interpretation is that it is stating that the 'purely' car-version of FSD is not enough. Elon does not say AGI directly, or limited subset AGI. But ... he seems to be inching in that direction. I have a sense that he is re-framing FSD as not only car FSD, but a kind of general 'being-in-the-world' awareness/navigation.
Perhaps not FSD, but FSM (Full Self Moving)

This may be short term bad news for people expecting FSD to be right around the corner. Middle or long term it is good news: As I see it, when FSD(FSM) arrives, it will be surprisingly good. And very generic. (Hint: Robots)

TLDR:
FSD is not around the corner, it takes a lot of time. But ... it will work well when (if) it arrives. And perhaps solve a large part of robotics as well.

UPDATE: Just saw all of Daves new video. One of his best - highly recommended.

Dave thinks that Tesla will go all in on various AI-applications. I think that is likely. But it is even more likely, to me, that Tesla will actually go into robotics, specifically humanoid robots. Tesla's core strengths are not AI in isolation, but products using AI (at least, that is what we think is the likely outcome for the FSD-project)
What do humanoid robots need?

• Vision based AI, (FSM)
• Very good manufacturing making robust, high quality products in high volume.
• Batteries: cheap and good.
• Systems integration.

Who can do all of above?
Who would you buy a robot from? Goggle or Facebook - no seriously, with that privacy baggage? And no fabrication expertise?
Also: What is the most challenging task? Making a flying drone to deliver pizzas? Or a golf cart with limited autonomy for delivering packages?
No.
The biggest challenge is to develop a humanoid robot platform, for performing a wide range of tasks in everyday real life. Tesla robots.

Also: Robots are very useful, or perhaps necessary for Mars colonization
Also+: The latest Neuralink mind-pong video is interesting in many ways. Specifically relevant here is the very lean physical envelope of the coin-sized compute unit in the monkey's head. Having a large human-sized robot is going to present problems re. cooling, and energy conservation in a space much more limited than a car. Additionally, in a related tweet, Musk discussed the importance of good cooling when designing Dojo. Energy conservation, tight envelopes, cooling - there seems to be some very common trends amongst the various Musk Enterprises.

TLDR+:
Given Elon-time, the AI Day will be sometime in the autumn. Tesla will present Dojo. And talk about FSD and more general form of FSD (FSM). I think Musk will also bring up robotics. It is the next logical step.

 

[buttershrimp]

They bought $246m/749,205 shares across a few funds yesterday, that would leave us at an average price of about $328.

Reference price per Nasdaq... makes sense... I'm sure a high roller perk. Meanwhile, Buttershrimp is $1900 poorer after bailing when it went south... that' 2.5 Tesla shares dammit.... the shame.

 

[Discoducky]

Well folks, some good news from Fremont:

• Fans are extracting a lot of heat from Kato. Employee lot FULL. Production started?
• Gigapresses seem busy and there is a stockpile of new castings.
• Factory seems busy with plenty of cars in the delivery lot, etc.
• Semi spotted on the track.
• What I assume to be a refresh Plaid X spotted on the track.
• Anything else I might have missed?

Enjoy

Have we seen confirmed batteries coming out of Kato? I don't recall.

 

[space_s3x]

Daily update on closing prices of AI As A Service (AIaaS) stocks:

MSFT: 1.53%
NVDA: 5.63%
IBM : (0.038%)
GOOG : 1.85%
AMZN : 1.38%
TSLA : 0.90%

Dojo Arigato!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

The home team jumped out to an early lead, only to quickly squander it. From there it was a yo-yo around breakeven, but Team Tesla rallied in the third quarter and never looked back to get a narrow win for their third W in the last 4 outings in front of a fairly sparse crowd. Let's see if they can continue their momentum into tomorrow's game and have a strong finish for the week.

Today
Score: 738.85
Margin of W/L: 6.62
Attendance: 27,712,574
High - Low: 22.38

Season
Record: 36-35
Total margin of wins: 871.47
Total margin of losses: -838.29
YTD gain/loss: 33.18 4.70%
Best Win: 110.58 Mar 9
Worst Loss: -68.83 Jan 11
Last 10: 6-4
Streak: W1
Avg margin of victory: 24.21
Avg margin of defeat: -23.95
Avg Attendance: 39,723,519
Avg Attendance of Last 10: 33,961,326
Avg High - Low: 42.54
Avg H - L of Last 10: 27.48

 

[woodisgood]

Don't know if posted before, but David Lee just made a video about it.

View attachment 654057
This can mean a lot of things.
It can be a plausible explanation for why the FSD download button is not there yet - as well as an 'excuse' for the lateness of FSD v9.

My interpretation is that it is stating that the 'purely' car-version of FSD is not enough. Elon does not say AGI directly, or limited subset AGI. But ... he seems to be inching in that direction. I have a sense that he is re-framing FSD as not only car FSD, but a kind of general 'being-in-the-world' awareness/navigation.
Perhaps not FSD, but FSM (Full Self Moving)

This may be short term bad news for people expecting FSD to be right around the corner. Middle or long term it is good news: As I see it, when FSD(FSM) arrives, it will be surprisingly good. And very generic. (Hint: Robots)

TLDR:
FSD is not around the corner, it takes a lot of time. But ... it will work well when (if) it arrives. And perhaps solve a large part of robotics as well.

UPDATE: Just saw all of Daves new video. One of his best - highly recommended.

Dave thinks that Tesla will go all in on various AI-applications. I think that is likely. But it is even more likely, to me, that Tesla will actually go into robotics, specifically humanoid robots. Tesla's core strengths are not AI in isolation, but products using AI (at least, that is what we think is the likely outcome for the FSD-project)
What do humanoid robots need?

• Vision based AI, (FSM)
• Very good manufacturing making robust, high quality products in high volume.
• Batteries: cheap and good.
• Systems integration.

Who can do all of above?
Who would you buy a robot from? Goggle or Facebook - no seriously, with that privacy baggage? And no fabrication expertise?
Also: What is the most challenging task? Making a flying drone to deliver pizzas? Or a golf cart with limited autonomy for delivering packages?
No.
The biggest challenge is to develop a humanoid robot platform, for performing a wide range of tasks in everyday real life. Tesla robots.

Also: Robots are very useful, or perhaps necessary for Mars colonization
Also+: The latest Neuralink mind-pong video is interesting in many ways. Specifically relevant here is the very lean physical envelope of the coin-sized compute unit in the monkey's head. Having a large human-sized robot is going to present problems re. cooling, and energy conservation in a space much more limited than a car. Additionally, in a related tweet, Musk discussed the importance of good cooling when designing Dojo. Energy conservation, tight envelopes, cooling - there seems to be some very common trends amongst the various Musk Enterprises.

TLDR+:
Given Elon-time, the AI Day will be sometime in the autumn. Tesla will present Dojo. And talk about FSD and more general form of FSD (FSM). I think Musk will also bring up robotics. It is the next logical step.

Makes Hyundai’s acquisition of Boston Dynamics slightly annoying.

 

[CLK350]

Don't know if posted before, but David Lee just made a video about it.

View attachment 654057
This can mean a lot of things.
It can be a plausible explanation for why the FSD download button is not there yet - as well as an 'excuse' for the lateness of FSD v9.

My interpretation is that it is stating that the 'purely' car-version of FSD is not enough. Elon does not say AGI directly, or limited subset AGI. But ... he seems to be inching in that direction. I have a sense that he is re-framing FSD as not only car FSD, but a kind of general 'being-in-the-world' awareness/navigation.
Perhaps not FSD, but FSM (Full Self Moving)

This may be short term bad news for people expecting FSD to be right around the corner. Middle or long term it is good news: As I see it, when FSD(FSM) arrives, it will be surprisingly good. And very generic. (Hint: Robots)

TLDR:
FSD is not around the corner, it takes a lot of time. But ... it will work well when (if) it arrives. And perhaps solve a large part of robotics as well.

UPDATE: Just saw all of Daves new video. One of his best - highly recommended.

Dave thinks that Tesla will go all in on various AI-applications. I think that is likely. But it is even more likely, to me, that Tesla will actually go into robotics, specifically humanoid robots. Tesla's core strengths are not AI in isolation, but products using AI (at least, that is what we think is the likely outcome for the FSD-project)
What do humanoid robots need?

• Vision based AI, (FSM)
• Very good manufacturing making robust, high quality products in high volume.
• Batteries: cheap and good.
• Systems integration.

Who can do all of above?
Who would you buy a robot from? Goggle or Facebook - no seriously, with that privacy baggage? And no fabrication expertise?
Also: What is the most challenging task? Making a flying drone to deliver pizzas? Or a golf cart with limited autonomy for delivering packages?
No.
The biggest challenge is to develop a humanoid robot platform, for performing a wide range of tasks in everyday real life. Tesla robots.

Also: Robots are very useful, or perhaps necessary for Mars colonization
Also+: The latest Neuralink mind-pong video is interesting in many ways. Specifically relevant here is the very lean physical envelope of the coin-sized compute unit in the monkey's head. Having a large human-sized robot is going to present problems re. cooling, and energy conservation in a space much more limited than a car. Additionally, in a related tweet, Musk discussed the importance of good cooling when designing Dojo. Energy conservation, tight envelopes, cooling - there seems to be some very common trends amongst the various Musk Enterprises.

TLDR+:
Given Elon-time, the AI Day will be sometime in the autumn. Tesla will present Dojo. And talk about FSD and more general form of FSD (FSM). I think Musk will also bring up robotics. It is the next logical step.

These are all great applications of a best in class AI supercomputer/ NN training machine - but in my opinion, from a revenues POV I think the more immediate and profitable outcome to look forward to is the fact that Tesla will open their Dojo computer to anyone, aka Dojo Web Service (DWS) - in case you forgot, Amazon didn't have much profits UNTIL AWS (Amazon Web Services) launched, and is now powering the infrastructure of a lot of website engines. And has been the top target of Microsoft/ IBM/ Oracle etc ever since.

DWS (Dojo Web Services) as a cash machine - it is already 98% built*, as Elon mentioned all it needs is working out the bugs, then of course setting up the infrastructure for letting others rent time on Dojo. Just imagine the military applications (sorry, a bit out of line with Tesla's mission), precision targeting of enemy aircraft/ tanks, pharma drug research - the Nurburgring equivalent would be pitching Dojo vs AlphaGo

*the fact that FSD hasn't been solved to the 99.999999% degree is not relevant to the DWS launch, BTW

 

[Thekiwi]

FSD is not worth the same value to someone driving 10 miles commute and 100 miles commute.
if it is a $/mile driven, you will get more subscribers from short commuters who go for a road trip once in a while who would have not paid the full upfront FSD cost.

if it is a $299 monthly subscriptions, this would reflect the actual cost of total FSD spread on the average consumer car ownership, this would increase the number of people who drive a lot but can’t afford the upfront full FSD cost.
if it is a $99 monthly subscription, this will be unfair to the owners who purchased FSD upfront in the last year and would not cover the actual value of it. This would cause a mass adoption from everyone and might triple the actual number of cars with FSD. I don’t know if it would grow the revenues with more widespread adoption, that would be a market case to study.
An interesting option would be to offer different options that fit different consumers. $/mile driven to very low mileage car users, $99 monthly for 4 or less drives per month, $299 monthly for unlimited FSD Drives per month, $599 monthly for ride hailers sending their Tesla for robotaxis and making profit out of it. When you have an option for everyone, you have more subscribers, more revenues, widespread adoption and possibly increasing TSLA with higher profit margins.

People who paid for FSD upfront have rights to full future iterations of FSD, including Level 4/5, for free. Someone paying a hypothetical $99 a month for FSD when subscriptions go live are only getting the current iteration of FSD for that monthly billing cycle. Once Level 5 autonomy arrives, that $99 a month subscription would leap to a much more expensive price no doubt. So while $99 a month may look like a better deal than paying for FSD upfront, that equation quickly changes in future when you might be paying $5k every year for FSD.

Regardless of the cost, Wall Street absolutely LOVES recurring subscription revenue and usually values it at a much higher multiple than profits generated from one off sales.

 

[elasalle]

These are all great applications of a best in class AI supercomputer/ NN training machine - but in my opinion, from a revenues POV I think the more immediate and profitable outcome to look forward to is the fact that Tesla will open their Dojo computer to anyone, aka Dojo Web Service (DWS) - in case you forgot, Amazon didn't have much profits UNTIL AWS (Amazon Web Services) launched, and is now powering the infrastructure of a lot of website engines. And has been the top target of Microsoft/ IBM/ Oracle etc ever since.

View attachment 654078

View attachment 654079

AMZN --> Rivian --> Cars
TSLA-->DOJO--> AWS( AI specific)

 

[lascavarian]

QuantumScape short seller coming up on CNBC after 5:30pm

 

[2daMoon]

TLDR+:
Given Elon-time, the AI Day will be sometime in the autumn. Tesla will let Dojo present itself. And let Dojo talk about FSD and more general form of FSD (FSM). I think Musk will also ask Dojo to speak about the future of robotics. It is the next logical step.

FTFY

 

[SN_8]

Rivian follows Tesla into another business with the launch of 'Rivian Insurance'

Rivian is announcing today the launch of its own insurance arm: Rivian Insurance. It’s the latest in a series of...

electrek.co

Oh FFS

Newsbreak - Rivian also building AI supercomputer, Rojo.

Rivian launching their own insurance product makes a lot of sense. They can leverage all the data they've collected from customers to optimize the actuarial process. What's that?? They have no data? Hmm. Well, fake it to you make it I guess

 

[elasalle]

Rivian launching their own insurance product makes a lot of sense. They can leverage all the data they've collected from customers to optimize the actuarial process. What's that?? They have no data? Hmm. Well, fake it to you make it I guess

In this case, Rivian is just a front for Amazon.
Bezos gonna copyCat the heck out of Musk