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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Sancho

Supporting Member
Feb 18, 2016
646
7,571
Illinois
So I’m on the beach and I hear two guys talking about Tesla, and I can hear they’re asking some pretty basic questions so I go over to them. One of them has just taken a test drive of the MY and was blown away. He’s confused now, because all he’s known about Tesla is that Musk is a weirdo, the company is a fraud, and he’d run out of range all the time. He’s been fed a diet of FUD for a decade, and now he has to adjust his mindset by the actual reality of the car he has just personally experienced.

As I write this, the guy has now gone over to somebody else to tell him about his test drive. We’ve all seen this play out for years now, but it’s kinda amazing to me that a decade has gone by and most people are still clueless.

Maybe a little advertising would be a good thing. If for no other reason than to convince people not to buy any more ICE cars. If you can’t score an EV now, hold onto your old ICE car a bit longer.
 

capster

Supporting Member
Aug 11, 2018
891
6,758
An island planet
Well. The Washington Post, owned by Bezos, incorrectly announcing that SpaceX beat Blue Origin would be more than a little embarrasing.

Edit: Also they were expected to announce two winners, out of the three remaining. According to the Post they went with SpaceX only. If that's correct it's pretty significant.
It would be funny if Bezos was the source of the source selection document that is the basis of the article. :D
 
Jan 7, 2015
280
2,275
Earth/EU/DK
Anyone else getting ornery from all the "OEM EV taking on Tesla in 202X" articles/ads ... they seem to have increased exponentially .... i guess OEMs are panicking but it really irritates me...
on the flip side everyone of these articles is an Advertisement for Tesla which is fantastic ... because an educated consumer will need to compare Porsche, Mercedes, VW, etc to Tesla and if you do your HW there is only once conclusion Tesla

changed my mind ... bring on the "Tesla Killers" 🦕
Everyone and their dog knows by now that mentioning Elon or Tesla is one of the easiest way to gather attention.
The flip side is, that precisely for this reason it is not really a good idea for the brands in question, because they face harsh scrutiny when trying to measure up. Guess they will learn over time.
 
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Jun 1, 2018
989
4,439
Canada
This is my plan too. Fly to Giga Texas and drive home to the East Coast.
Wonder if they will allow this for Canadian deliveries. Would love to do it.

It would allow for more deliveries before the end of each quarter (which admittedly they won't have too much trouble with; considering the Cybertruck backlog).

It would also, be helpful to the mission if more people in wider geographic regions of the world are driving Cybertrucks, because people in these other regions would see the Cybertruck in real life, and perhaps either order one, buy an alternate EV option ie Rivian, or at the very least delay their next ICE purchase resulting in fewer ICE pickups being sold, sooner.
 

2daMoon

Mostly Harmless
Nov 25, 2020
687
4,818
Terra
Maybe a little advertising would be a good thing. If for no other reason than to convince people not to buy any more ICE cars. If you can’t score an EV now, hold onto your old ICE car a bit longer.
This concept of advertising as being a good thing could be right, but only after Tesla has established the production capacity to meet the demand that advertising would generate. Creating such demand before production can deliver could alienate potential customers that Tesla paid good money to attract.

I have speculated before how it is not inconceivable that Tesla, to some degree, appreciates all the FUD while the factories are gestating as it takes the heat off them in the mean time.

The really wonderful thing about this theory of mine is how the tables may turn should Tesla start throwing advertising dollars at the media and the media then finds an incentive to begin downplaying the FUD against Tesla. It will be like pulling the carpet out from under the feet of ICE and BigOil.

Nobody likes to be lied to, and once consumers begin to embrace how they have been sold a load of hogwash for over a decade they will not be happy with the sources behind it all.
 
Jan 7, 2015
280
2,275
Earth/EU/DK
Half the population need a training course on effectively dealing with the other half who have become ignorant (or even more so) due to social media.
Sadly the ignorance virus is so widespread almost everyone rational has valued relationships with people who have drunk one flavor of Kool Aid or another. One tactic which might help break through to some would be to pick a topic you know the person knows very well on a factual level from their experience or occupation. Make some ridiculous assertions about their area of expertise and let them tell YOU how you don't know the facts and how absurd your assertions are. Then turn it around and ask why some of their opinions are based on verifiable facts but they won't take the trouble to even check the factual basis of their QAnon, anti Vaxd, Tesla (fill in the blank) assertions before believing them unconditionally.
The scary thing today is that fewer and fewer of the willingly ignorant are actually stupid. Many are smart in other parts of their lives.
Thinking, learning, researching, trying to improve your knowledge and reasoning takes a lot of effort. Many find the modern world confusing and don't have the energy or appetite for that.
Smart is only one dimension, one yard-stick. Investing is hard. Curiosity and patience has a lot of merit too.
 

jbcarioca

Well-Known Member
Feb 3, 2015
5,170
24,380
Then they should stop. Elon sez: "First of all, I think moats are lame. It's nice sort of quaint in a vestigial way. If your only defense against invading armies is a moat, you will not last long. What matters is the pace of innovation. That is the fundamental determinant of competitiveness."

(one of my all time favorite business quotes)

Supercharging is not a 'moat'! Supercharging isn't meant to compete with other companies' EVs but with gasoline cars! Eventually all EVs will have great charging infrastructure. The purpose of Supercharging is to mitigate the key competitive advantage that gasoline cars have over electric cars over a specific 10-15 year time period between the introduction of EVs and the full buildout of EV infrastructure. By mitigating ICE's advantage in long-distance travel, the Supercharger network serves to advance Tesla's core mission of accelerating the advent of sustainable transport.
I disagreed only because I think many people, in this context Elon also, tend to misconstrue what a moat was ever for. It is factual to state that medieval moats were not the only line fo defense. They were a deterrent and acted to make invasion more difficult. Specifically we have been discussing the role fo Superchargers as a sustainable conpetitive advantage, so the shorthand for such is 'moat'. No sane person will argue that pace of innovation is fundamental. Actually the Supercharger network and it's continuing innovation with faster speeds, urban Superchargers, gigantic installations with amenities and so on is proof of a continuing innovative approach. Rather than quibble about shorthand we should focus on factual demonstrated rapid pace of innovation.

Once we do that we can think of the near-certain advent of Supercharger battery installations themselves acting as wholesale market participants with Autobidder, larger sites with significant solar installations themselves and so on. Tesla has just barely begin that process. Utility licenses already issued are forward indicators.

So, yes, many of us will use the word 'moat' to indication things with rapid continuing innovation that competitors are largely ignoring!
 

ninpb

Member
Jun 19, 2018
587
2,396
90720
So I’m on the beach and I hear two guys talking about Tesla, and I can hear they’re asking some pretty basic questions so I go over to them. One of them has just taken a test drive of the MY and was blown away. He’s confused now, because all he’s known about Tesla is that Musk is a weirdo, the company is a fraud, and he’d run out of range all the time. He’s been fed a diet of FUD for a decade, and now he has to adjust his mindset by the actual reality of the car he has just personally experienced.

As I write this, the guy has now gone over to somebody else to tell him about his test drive. We’ve all seen this play out for years now, but it’s kinda amazing to me that a decade has gone by and most people are still clueless.

Maybe a little advertising would be a good thing. If for no other reason than to convince people not to buy any more ICE cars. If you can’t score an EV now, hold onto your old ICE car a bit longer.

"Thanks for the info, Sancho was it?... BTW this isn't a nude beach"
 

jbcarioca

Well-Known Member
Feb 3, 2015
5,170
24,380
This concept of advertising as being a good thing could be right, but only after Tesla has established the production capacity to meet the demand that advertising would generate. Creating such demand before production can deliver could alienate potential customers that Tesla paid good money to attract.

I have speculated before how it is not inconceivable that Tesla, to some degree, appreciates all the FUD while the factories are gestating as it takes the heat off them in the mean time.

The really wonderful thing about this theory of mine is how the tables may turn should Tesla start throwing advertising dollars at the media and the media then finds an incentive to begin downplaying the FUD against Tesla. It will be like pulling the carpet out from under the feet of ICE and BigOil.

Nobody likes to be lied to, and once consumers begin to embrace how they have been sold a load of hogwash for over a decade they will not be happy with the sources behind it all.
People keep promoting the antiquated notion of 'advertising'. It is a largely antiquated and obsolete concept. In different ways several of us try to explain that, but it keeps cropping up. Tesla has moved quite beyond that.
 

ClimateOptimst

Supporting Member
Dec 11, 2018
148
1,855
Idaho, USofA
Everyone should do a fly and drive to get their Cybertruck, that’s my plan and make a fun road trip out of the buying experience. Get a tour and a Tesla!
Got called to go back in the office to work in a closed area, so I have to order a new Model Y and do my part for the cause 5-9 weeks out.
agree 100%. My Cybr is my retirement present to myself and am planning to do exactly what you propose 2-3 years from now.
 

OrthoSurg

Member
Jun 2, 2017
821
5,232
Montreal
Apr 9, 2021
30
133
Grabtown
I think his extrapolation is spot on.
as he once said: « I am always right, it’s even better when the others are wrong. »
his wife and mine became really good friends, she often talked with my wife about divorcing him, however she makes a tenth of the money he does, he fully paid their multimillion dollars home in upscale neighborhoo, she owns nothing. He created a full state of dependence for his wife and she is trapped them with 2 kids with an overly exigent husband that forces her to publish 4 scientific papers yearly. She has been getting into fights with her research assistants because she has been pressurized so much lately by him. His parents take care of their 2 young kids 90% of the time so they can train and do their research.

I've seen too many Datelines of this scenario.
 

lascavarian

Active Member
Jul 27, 2017
1,063
5,445
usa
Good news for Tesla:


'Average price of a new car is about $40,000'
I view it as a good thing for consumers when an industry is in transition. Buy used so as to avoid getting stuck with an expensive vehicle that may have no resale value at some unknown point in the future. With Tesla at only 2% of US sales a hot used market has weak impact.
 
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uujjj2

Member
Aug 11, 2020
347
1,257
San Jose, CA
I disagreed only because I think many people, in this context Elon also, tend to misconstrue what a moat was ever for. It is factual to state that medieval moats were not the only line fo defense. They were a deterrent and acted to make invasion more difficult. Specifically we have been discussing the role fo Superchargers as a sustainable conpetitive advantage, so the shorthand for such is 'moat'. No sane person will argue that pace of innovation is fundamental. Actually the Supercharger network and it's continuing innovation with faster speeds, urban Superchargers, gigantic installations with amenities and so on is proof of a continuing innovative approach. Rather than quibble about shorthand we should focus on factual demonstrated rapid pace of innovation.

Once we do that we can think of the near-certain advent of Supercharger battery installations themselves acting as wholesale market participants with Autobidder, larger sites with significant solar installations themselves and so on. Tesla has just barely begin that process. Utility licenses already issued are forward indicators.

So, yes, many of us will use the word 'moat' to indication things with rapid continuing innovation that competitors are largely ignoring!
Elon's audience for that quote is as much Tesla's internal team as for investors. Elon has always emphasized that any specific technology advantage is only temporary. Even self-driving is going to be only a temporary advantage. He doesn't want Tesla itself to think of any 'moat' as a fixed defense. And he's absolutely right that looking for 'moat' (in the Warren Buffet sense of durable advantage) is misguided.

But you have a point that the word 'moat' is appropriate in a different sense. A moat is a temporary, soft defense that just slows an invader a little bit until your own army can join the fight. What wins the war is ultimately the strength of your army, but having a moat in the way just gives you a little bit of extra time to get your ranks in order. Supercharging, in this sense, is indeed a 'moat' against EVs from traditional automakers, a soft, temporary advantage that buys time for Tesla's engineers and factories to implement the next big innovation.
 
Jan 7, 2015
280
2,275
Earth/EU/DK
Munros New ID4 review just out:
WOW: He really digs into VW: He actually gets furious with the navigation. He couldn't get it to work.

It is becomming clear that Munro is suffering from Tesla withdrawal syndrome, specifically re. tech.
Pre-Tesla the ID4 might have gotten a better review from, but now he finds the UI to be slow, UN-intuitive and outright annoying. He reaches peak irritation when it turns out that the map he spent precious minutes trying to get working is available, but only using voice commands: "I asked for the damn thing to turn on the map, but I didn't address it properly!" Dripping with scorn.
Once you go Tesla...
 

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