Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[st_lopes]

I'm in the UK at the moment and noticed the Pound is now worth $1.40. I looked around a bit more and noticed the dollar is falling with regard to other currencies. The Euro is worth about 12% more than it was a year ago.

Anyhow this will no doubt work positively for Q1 margin on vehicle exports.

Does anyone know if Tesla keeps its currencies "stashed" in those countries where the vehicles are purchased, or they always forward it to the USA? If they were able to hold onto it they could start playing the currency markets basically, which could work out well if they hold off on converting to USD until the USD has fallen a bit more.

For accounting purposes cash balances get translated back to an entity’s primary functional currency. So any EUR or HKD or other would be translated back to USD for reporting purposes, whether they’ve actually converted the currencies or not.

Operationally speaking odds are they dont convert cash back and forth between currencies anymore as they actually need the currency in that local jurisdiction. Also hedging likely hasn’t been a priority as it’s only really relevant where your revenues are in one currency but expenses are in another. The more localized they get in manufacturing, the less that mismatch will occur.

 

[jeewee3000]

It's quite annoying for out portfolios though, which are all held in $$

Depends on the situation. In your case, as in you need to extract cash out of your portfolio for house renovations, it's unfortunate.

For investors in accumulation mode, it's a buying opportunity. Discount rates on all US stocks!

[EDIT: this appears to have been my 1000'th post on TMC. Not as glamorous as I imagined to be ]

 

[Tslynk67]

Depends on the situation. In your case, as in you need to extract cash out of your portfolio for house renovations, it's unfortunate.

For investors in accumulation mode, it's a buying opportunity. Discount rates on all US stocks!

I need to take a bit each month for the moment, which is indeed annoying. Otherwise I'm neutral as I don't invest new money, but rather trade calls to buy more shares and my trading accounts here are in $$ until I force a conversion to €€

I guess the same for you?

 

[Artful Dodger]

More information here: #19 on the topic which gets comments deleted.

(which will affect the SP if events unfold on projected path).

But DON'T talk about it here!

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Depends on the situation. In your case, as in you need to extract cash out of your portfolio for house renovations, it's unfortunate.

For investors in accumulation mode, it's a buying opportunity. Discount rates on all US stocks!

But that assumes that you are still working and making some new money. Who here does that???

Or that you are not already 100% in Tesla so you can undiversify. Who here isn't???

 

[Tslynk67]

Pre-Market was getting a bit too hot for the MM's, so they've pushed it down a bit for good measure

Would love some volume and FOMO to come along a kick them hard...

 

[jeewee3000]

I need to take a bit each month for the moment, which is indeed annoying. Otherwise I'm neutral as I don't invest new money, but rather trade calls to buy more shares and my trading accounts here are in $$ until I force a conversion to €€

I guess the same for you?

But that assumes that you are still working and making some new money. Who here does that???

Or that you are not already 100% in Tesla so you can undiversify. Who here isn't???

I still work yes, poor sod I am, so indeed I get to invest extra cash (€) in intersting USD stocks (cough-TSLA-cough).


@Lycanthrope , indeed the same for me: selling calls nets me USD, not €, therefore buying calls is not "at a discount". But my time horizon is way different than yours so I'm patient enough to let the USD rise again (which it might once X-holding takes over the planet ).

 

[elasalle]

Well indeed it's my intention to have at least the same number of shares in my portfolio by the time I've cashed-out what I need for the house renovations, so in one respect I don't care too much, but the more the $ strengthens against the €, the more money we get eventually

I want stronger $, so post COVID my EU vacations will be cheaper

 

[Mengy]

Pre-Market was getting a bit too hot for the MM's, so they've pushed it down a bit for good measure

Would love some volume and FOMO to come along a kick them hard...

I don't know, I've got a bad feeling about this earnings report.

Don't get me wrong, I think Tesla will knock the numbers out of the park, but with regards to the SP and market I'm not sure we're going to see the kind of bump upwards we would all like to see. I've got this nagging feeling the volume won't be there to counter the MM's controlling the price and holding it down where they want it. Maybe in a few weeks it gets away from them, maybe a few months, but for the foreseeable future I have this feeling we are stuck kind of flat-ish.

 

[15Peter20]

I don't know, I've got a bad feeling about this earnings report.

Don't get me wrong, I think Tesla will knock the numbers out of the park, but with regards to the SP and market I'm not sure we're going to see the kind of bump upwards we would all like to see. I've got this nagging feeling the volume won't be there to counter the MM's controlling the price and holding it down where they want it. Maybe in a few weeks it gets away from them, maybe a few months, but for the foreseeable future I have this feeling we are stuck kind of flat-ish.

Suits me. Still waiting for dry powder. Covid seems to have had a strange effect on the ability of my pension provider to tap a few keys on a computer and GIVE ME MY DAMNED MONEY!!!

 

[Singuy]

Pre-Market was getting a bit too hot for the MM's, so they've pushed it down a bit for good measure

Would love some volume and FOMO to come along a kick them hard...

Netflix didn't do anyone any favors with their guide. It's a reality call for stocks running on covid high(qqq in general).

 

[Tslynk67]

I don't know, I've got a bad feeling about this earnings report.

Don't get me wrong, I think Tesla will knock the numbers out of the park, but with regards to the SP and market I'm not sure we're going to see the kind of bump upwards we would all like to see. I've got this nagging feeling the volume won't be there to counter the MM's controlling the price and holding it down where they want it. Maybe in a few weeks it gets away from them, maybe a few months, but for the foreseeable future I have this feeling we are stuck kind of flat-ish.

It has certainly been a weird passage of play where Tesla fundamentals don't seem to move the needle much. One could argue that after the huge run-up over the last 12 months that perfect execution is baked-in to the price, which I wouldn't argue with too much

That being said, I'm expecting very good financials - yes we didn't get the high-margin S&X sales, but GF3 over-delivered and they have equally, if not better margins

I'd just like any violent volatility to be out of the way so I can go back to my weekly option plays

Netflix didn't do anyone any favors with their guide. It's a reality call for stocks running on covid high(qqq in general).

Yep, everything dropped AH yesterday after the $NFLX dump - still don't understand the mechanics of that, surely those selling-off Netflix would move into something more likely to have a more positive earnings...

 

[corduroy]

FUDsters have FUD. Tesla has data.

When Tesla can show regulators hard data proving FSD is 10x safer than human drivers, FSD will be approved. Political pressure due to FUD might slow down approval, but can't stop it. Facts beat FUD eventually, when people are killing each other with cars every day.

I love the logical positivity of your comments and wish that were true, but I'm skeptical. We are living in a post-truth world where data and facts are tossed aside for opinion and political posturing to support whatever agenda people have. Especially these days, people show a willingness to actively choose a path counter to their own self interest or even safety, if it supports their worldview. I'm hoping for he best, but worried about how FSD regulation/approval will play out.

 

[Drezil]

At this point, higher taxes for rich companies but also carbon taxes would be net positive for Tesla. A real carbon tax would show the true colors of big co of the world. Right now Tesla gets mixed in the bunch with general tech and auto companies, which is not good for PR regarding environmental issues. The only drawback is if Bitcoin gets taxed in some way (as i personally hope).

We DO have a carbon tax. But carbon-heavy industry got exceptions. And for cars: you pay it at the pump. So no directly obvious boon for tesla. Currently ~9 Euro-ct/l starting this year iirc (don't ask me what that would be in imperial.. otherwise would give it to you in fourlong-cubes or something stupid you got .. ).

This tax mostly hits consumers (rates for oil/gas/energy go way up - but real-estate-companies can shift that to the renters; contracts for energy are long-running (mostly 10 years or so) from the supplier-side .. so this also gets shifted onto the consumer etc.). This is the main reason why this is unpopular. It always gets shifted down to people that have no lobby (i.e. low-income-households that cannot choose which way their heating is provided by the landlord - and the landlord can just push it onto the renters).
Edit: and for the lowest of incomes (on social subsidies) those costs are paid by the state anyway. Why should a landlord then "invest" into e.g. solar on their roof or a new heating-installation?

 

[Tslynk67]

Ha ha, 1% push-down, 1 minute before main market, give me a break

 

[JustMe]

I'd just like any violent volatility to be out of the way so I can go back to my weekly option plays

Violent price swings can be really profitable! All’s you have to do is pick the tops and bottoms. That’s only two things.

Looks like we’ll see a bottom today

 

[TheTalkingMule]

4/30 $800c at open today. Zero cash. Selling my last non-TSLA shares today for calls. If this gets much worse I'll need to sell shares to buy calls.

Maybe these clowns are in fact going to outlast me!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Violent price swings can be really profitable! All’s you have to do is pick the tops and bottoms. That’s only two things.

Looks like we’ll see a bottom today

Haha, I don't know about a bottom, but looks like we'll test the 50-day Moving Avg right away.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ha ha, 1% push-down, 1 minute before main market, give me a break

Looks like wedgies are trying to flip the 10-day MA from support to resistance with this last minute bear raid before the Open:

 

[aubreymcfato]

This hurts.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1384721154502447105