Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thx1139]

please not again these 4680 Fremont speculations like we had S/X 2170 for years... currently Tesla is cell limited and will use what Panasonic supplies at least few years more. Last year there were news about contract extended till 2023 Tesla & Panasonic renew 3-year cell supply agreement - electrive.com

Concur dont think Tesla will do anything in Fremont that could potentially create a disruption until the production of the Model Y is moved to Austin. Yes that means that depending on where an individual car is produced it may have different batteries and underlying structure.

 

[Krugerrand]

I agree for the most part - as @StealthP3D says, a low SP do benefit the workforce - but I don't buy the fact that Elon "discovered" of the energy usage of Bitcoin after he bought it.
This article cited by @JRP3 tries to put the puzzle together:

Tesla, Dogecoin And Bitcoin: Mysteries Untold (NASDAQ:TSLA)

There has been a lot of action around Tesla, Elon Musk and crypto. Read why the action so far is a mystery which will reveal yet another hype angle for Tesla.

seekingalpha.com

The gist of it is that Musk has a long story with crypto - both Bitcoin and Doge.
He has criticized Bitcoin for years, even about energy consumption (can't find the tweets because Twitter search is awful). Then he changed his mind. Then he changed it again in a week or so.
His whole reasoning is too inconsistent to take it at face value. There must be some information/background we don't know about.

I’m sure there is more to the story as there almost always is and perhaps one day we’ll read about it in a book or hear about it at a shareholder storytelling.

The point being stick to what we do know and stop injecting irrelevant opinions that serve only to rile ourselves and others unnecessarily.

Try not having an opinion once in a while. Then try not having one a lot. Finally try not having one until you’re asked and then realize you don’t really have one and be okay saying you don’t out loud. It’s refreshing. Lightens the soul and puts life (and the SP and money and politics and religion etc) into a clearer perspective.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Otherwise introduction of Model 2 will have to be delayed.

Model 2 will use an LFP pack (per Bty Day slide deck). It's very likely that the entire pack will come from a supplier, the way the MiC Model 3 SR+ uses a CATL-provided LFP pack right now.

Tesla 4680 cell production ramp will not be a factor in scaling up Model 2 vehicle production.

 

[willow_hiller]

Just an FYI, it seems like Biden moved up the day for visiting Ford and speaking about EVs. I thought it was meant to be concurrent with the Ford F150 Lightning announcement on the 19th, but it's scheduled for 1:40 PM EST today. Livestream here:

EDIT: New Whitehouse factsheet to go along with it: FACT SHEET: The American Jobs Plan Supercharges the Future of Transportation and Manufacturing | The White House

A couple of bullets that could affect Tesla. Sounds like the administration is shifting to a price cap on EV incentives to avoid "expensive luxury models," but also a heavy-duty vehicle credit could be a boon to the Semi:

• Consumer Incentives: Provide point-of-sale incentives that encourage EV deployment. These incentives will not go towards expensive luxury models and will also incentivize manufacturers who use good labor practices. Incentives provide critical encouragement for manufacturers to move to sell more EVs.
• Tax credits for zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicles: a new tax credit that will support the market for electric and fuel cell trucks and other heavy vehicles. Heavy-duty vehicles are major contributors to poor air quality and health problems, especially in environmental justice communities, and deployment of zero emission versions will clean up the air in communities that need it most.
• Provide tax credits to clean vehicle manufacturing: The plan proposes new funds to the 48C Advanced Manufacturing Tax Credit, which has a successful track record in supporting advances in manufacturing. EV manufacturing is an eligible use for this credit. The proposal mirrors the Manchin-Stabenow bill by including a set aside for coal communities.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

He did not profit from the GME squeeze. Also 8k put contracts certainly didn't cost him 530 million in premiums. If it did then I don't know what to say but hahahaahaha.

These puts may not equate to a "$530M wager", perhaps more like $40M, but you also need to factor in the cost of the CNBC headlines.

 

[dww12]

Morton Grove?

He posts about Tesla shipping on Twitter.

 

[Tslynk67]

Morton Grove?

He's tracking the ships https://twitter.com/mortenlund89

 

[Singuy]

These puts may not equate to a "$530M wager", perhaps more like $40M, but you also need to factor in the cost of the CNBC headlines.

40M is even a stretch. Gary is using put premiums today to illustrate his example. Put premiums are uber expensive during a bear market. Burry bought his Q1 which is a bull market for Tesla. I'm speculating his put premiums were peanuts and somewhere in the 10 million dollar range.

 

[copyhacker]

I have a low 7 figures account with Schwab (thanks in large part due to TSLA). Upon request, they lowered my Margin interest rate from the standard to 1.6%. When I called to confirm the email which documented that the request had been granted and the new margin loan rate, the Schwab advisor did so and noted that the reduced rate would stay in effect until May 31, 2022. I’m hopeful TSLA will be well above current price levels before then to reduce the number of shares I intended to sell to fund a major home renovation project...on the sea view villa I bought with the sale of TSLA shares.

I transferred my shares to IB after TD Ameritrade (who I’d been with for 20+ years) ghosted me when I asked about margin loan rates. Currently planning to take advantage of a nice 1.29% rate at IB for some business plans… unless the bleeding goes on much longer, then I may have to make a Plan B

 

[Artful Dodger]

I know the FUD won't go away once Tesla starts using the in car camera to watch our eyes, but it will improve safety. No two ways about that. People need to treat AP with more respect.

Watch your eyes?! The in-car monitoring system needs to verify that the driver remains in their seat with their seat belt fastened until the vehicle comes to a full and complete stop at the destination/gate. Back-seat drivers are now literally a menace.

 

[keydiver]

Where are the 4680 lines that are going to be producing all these batteries?

Haven't we heard that LG (and possibly others) are also building 4680 battery lines? I don't think Tesla is going this alone, they need every cell that anyone can provide them. The ones from LG probably won't have DBE and some of the other features we heard from Battery Day, but they will still fill the void for now.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Concur dont think Tesla will do anything in Fremont that could potentially create a disruption until the production of the Model Y is moved to Austin. Yes that means that depending on where an individual car is produced it may have different batteries and underlying structure.

There are no plans to move Model Y production to Austin. It has ALWAYS been the plan to deliver West Coast cars from Fremont, and Models Y for customers East of the Rockies from Austin.

As more products get added to Giga Texas production, they'll be distributed to minimize logistics cost, but not by vastly increasing CapEx requirements. ie: Cybertrucks sold on the West Coast will come from Austin.

Elon made this statement of intent YEARS ago, and nothing has changed.

 

[jkirkwood001]

...You’re NOT an investor of any kind if you can’t leave your personal opinion at the door and base your INVESTMENT on FACTS.

...

Whoa, that's oversimplifying the stock market a bit, isn't it? If the stock market was only based on facts, a computer could predict it. But that's never been the case.

IMO, the stock market works on facts + bias + hope. It's as much an illogical beast as it is a logical one, equal parts Spock + Bones + Kirk for lack of a better analogy. You might wish it was all based on facts, but that doesn't make it so.

 

[Krugerrand]

Pushing the envelope...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1394620356674134019

#teamaustin

 

[StealthP3D]

Uh, we've been looking forward to Tesla showing a profit with $0 in emissions credits since early 2020. It always seems to be next quarter.

The reality is that Amazon didn't show profits without any qualifying statements until AWS started printing money. The reality is that making and selling cars is a very difficult industry to show a profit in. I don't really expect Tesla to show profits without any qualifying statements until some secondary business like FSD or energy trading comes online, that is, until Tesla finds it's AWS.

Selling regulatory credits does not constitute a "qualifying statement" anymore than unlocking addition tranches of executive compensation constitutes a "qualifying statement" in the other direction.

Leaving that aside, to not expect profits from manufacturing cars is to be blind to the current trends of volume efficiencies, cost-savings through innovations in vehicle design and manufacturing, battery developments, etc. Put simply, your statement is baffling.

 

[lafrisbee]

One day, there will be a movie made about this forum and us .

”HODLing Pattern”

<--- played by a CGI Groucho Marx Ant

 

[TheTalkingMule]

There's a lot of continued FUD out there, but this feels like one of those days where TSLA is pushed down in the pre-market against a macro tailwind and it snaps from -1% to +1% at the open.

Never tried to catch one of these, but it feels like today might be a decent opportunity. Throw in a market order for OTM calls at open for this Friday and set a sell order for +20%. Since I have zero dollars, perhaps I'll just watch and see what would've happened.

Edit at open: 5/21 $600c opened at $4.20(!) and quickly dipped down to $3.30.....now we sit at $4.85 7 minutes into the trading day. A sell order for $5.04(+20% from open) seems doable.

Edit again: 5/21 $600c sits at =$5.05 up 22% from the open.

 

[StealthP3D]

Whoa, that's oversimplifying the stock market a bit, isn't it? If the stock market was only based on facts, a computer could predict it. But that's never been the case.

IMO, the stock market works on facts + bias + hope. It's as much an illogical beast as it is a logical one, equal parts Spock + Bones + Kirk for lack of a better analogy. You might wish it was all based on facts, but that doesn't make it so.

I believe Krugerrand is speaking to the fallacy of paying undue attention to short-term share price movements based on nothing important, while you are speaking towards what moves the short-term share price.

 

[Krugerrand]

Whoa, that's oversimplifying the stock market a bit, isn't it? If the stock market was only based on facts, a computer could predict it. But that's never been the case.

IMO, the stock market works on facts + bias + hope. It's as much an illogical beast as it is a logical one, equal parts Spock + Bones + Kirk for lack of a better analogy. You might wish it was all based on facts, but that doesn't make it so.

Context please. Don’t strip out words or sentences and ignore what came before and after. The message is meant to be considered in its entirety.

But let’s just go with it; if people did just use facts for investing then the market would not trade irrationally, would it? The very fact people must voice opinions, must speculate, must try and bend the will of others to line up with theirs, must try and game the system because money is the very reason we find ourselves in this situation.

The market is a reflection of us all. We get out of it exactly what we put in.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Watching some technicals diverge at the Open. MA(200) at 586.82 while the Lower-BB was 548.04