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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

thx1139

Active Member
Aug 1, 2014
1,224
4,390
Lemont, IL
You think selling the 3 with more range than an S is a good idea?
I said if a 500+ range car is needed. I believe that shortest distance is take what will likely be the lightest car at the time. My assumption is the Model 3 will move to front and rear single castings and structural pack after substantial Model Y production moves to Austin. Allows Model Y line in Fremont to go offline and new Model 3 line to support new version to be built. Then start migrating existing Model 3 lines.

Y line(s) move to Austin
Y line is converted to new 3 line
old 3 line is shut down and converted to new 3 line
old 3 line is shut down and converted to new 3 line...Rinse and repeat until all lines converted.
If Y continues production in Fremont as well as Austin then start converting them as well as Austin ramps

Honestly at that point does it really matter if the Model S is the longest range Tesla? Typically with most cars the best mileage is the smaller cars. People expect that.
 

mongo

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2017
13,323
40,767
Michigan
I feel at this point we can't really behave like a startup drastically killing a product option a few days prior to the delivery event. I think it will blow over hopefully after the event this week, but I'm also confused lately by the "startup mentality" and want to see more execution!
This is not an instance of canceling the product the event was for. The event was never for Plaid+. Tesla has a bunch of Plaid ready for delivery.

the bait and switch is "baiting" me to order by hyping a 520-mile range car with revolutionary battery tech, then trying to "switch" my order to a lower-range vehicle without the new battery tech that was advertised. When the switch failed, they had to cancel the product i originally ordered.
Tesla did not switch your order, nor at this point do you know the battery tech in either version. They canceled a product after conducting an informal survey of Plaid+ reservations. Nor do we have any indication that Tesla never intended to make or deliver Plaid+

the gaslighting is telling me i don't want the higher range, or acting like the Plaid excitement wasn't inextricably intertwined with the Battery Day hype during which it was announced.
Again, they did not say you did not want the higher range. They said it was not needed in the majority of cases.
"What we are seeing is that once you have a range above 400 miles, more range doesn’t really matter. There are essentially zero trips above 400 miles where the driver doesn’t need to stop for restroom, food, coffee, etc. anyway."
Not "It doesn't matter". Not "There are zero trips". Rather, it is a low usage use case for the fleet. That does not mean it is not a high usage use case for individual drivers. I'm getting the tri-motor CT specifically for range. If they cut that down I will also be annoyed.

arguing that there is some narrow definition of those terms where maybe they don't quite technically apply doesn't materially change how this played out.
If you do not want to go by a narrow definition, might I suggest not using the phrasing:
It's a blatant textbook bait and switch.
 

Singuy

Active Member
Jun 28, 2018
4,443
33,452
US
I said if a 500+ range car is needed. I believe that shortest distance is take what will likely be the lightest car at the time. My assumption is the Model 3 will move to front and rear single castings and structural pack after substantial Model Y production moves to Austin. Allows Model Y line in Fremont to go offline and new Model 3 line to support new version to be built. Then start migrating existing Model 3 lines.

Y line(s) move to Austin
Y line is converted to new 3 line
old 3 line is shut down and converted to new 3 line
old 3 line is shut down and converted to new 3 line...Rinse and repeat until all lines converted.
If Y continues production in Fremont as well as Austin then start converting them as well as Austin ramps

Honestly at that point does it really matter if the Model S is the longest range Tesla? Typically with most cars the best mileage is the smaller cars. People expect that.
500 miles+ range is needed for Brand dominance. It shows off battery tech, power train efficiency , and what your engineers can accomplish. Halo products are meant to do this for your company. Plaid+ may not be all that important if the Roadster or Cybertruck Plaid can take its place. But Tesla needs something that can show their engineering strengths when it comes to drive train because we know they are not winning any awards from build quality.
 

SOULPEDL

Active Member
Jul 25, 2016
3,438
13,694
Arizona
You were speaking of the Tesla ecosystem as locking people into the brand as a moat. Elon believe relying on moats is lame. His strategy is to offer a better product at a lower price. To offer the consumer more value for their money. Yes, the ability of one company to offer a better product at a lower price could be considered a moat but that is not what Elon was speaking of when he said moats were lame.
Agree. I'm recalling the Intel moat foil* in the 90's with AMD clearly positioned outside the castle. We all chuckled and would make fun of how AMD just tries to copy Intel tech. I saw that foil for many years... Oops!

Today, I think the Intel moat is all but dried up, lacking innovation. They didn't make new moats, skipped mobile phones, couldn't shrink the tech, now going back to Foundry chips and investing huge capital over the next few years. Foundry is literally the opposite of innovation - trying to compete with Taiwan now in volume, in the US? It's noble, maybe some tax advantages, but I'm pretty certain that's not what growth or innovation looks like.

* A "foil" is a clear plastic sheet with images printed on it. When place on an "Overhead" projector emitting light from the surface, the foil is then projected onto the wall for larger viewing. It replaced the slide projector because you could print foils on a regular printer... now that was high tech where we could present same day! The poor slide projector people thought they had a moat...
 

jbcarioca

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Feb 3, 2015
5,628
29,934
Whoa... the margins! Who doesn't like that?
Yes, and consider the potential technology transfer if they try some things first on a low volume product then use in mass market once they discover how to do that. Such practices are time-honored in technology-intensive products, 4680's/structural packs and many other things less obvious have potential to serve that function. Elon suggested that back in 2015 or so IIRC. I've been looking for the quotation but haven't found it yet.

I do recall from examining gross margins on several vehicle classes that the two rgualry leaders ahem been Ferrari and Porsche. Both have maintained that for a long time. The information on Rolls Royce, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini are not easily extracted but all of them must be very high gross margin, not least because each one uses many components commonly with their cheap models. One trivial example was illustrated in Road & Track a few years ago:

Tesla mostly does not discuss that very much but... just think of only battery cells, BMS and the list goes on. Just now Tesla has enough models and enough volume that such commonality becomes easier to do. For sure, gigapresses are hugely expensive but also hugely cost effective. It is not hard to imagine how many different parts can be eliminated in multiple vehicles by using the Gigapresses. Of course they're just learning how to do it.

The chances to have low volume models be technology leaders for Tesla is clear. Once they have Roadster, Semi, Model S and Model X together with several lower cost models they have enough volume, say 2 million annually, to make this a routine process. At that point refresh cycles will make all manner of parts much, much cheaper.

That ignores the gigantic scale for FSD, firmware, sensors, every chip type. Just imagine how much scale economy means when software can be used among most, if not all, models.

All that ends out increasing gross margins, capital efficiency and speeding the product development cycle, all together.
There is yet one more very obvious gigantic saving: factories. Tesla is proving that as they go from Fremont , Buffalo and Sparks to Shanghai, Berlin and Austin, the favorites have been becoming cheaper to build and less expensive to operate. Of course then there is shipping.

It really just began with Model S and Model X followed by Model 3 and Model Y. Both pairs share only 25-30% of parts, but all will migrate to a common cell form and so much else.
The mind boggles with what Tesla has already done, and they're just beginning.
 
Aug 6, 2019
929
33,010
Connecticut, USA
1623075950977.png
 

Krugerrand

Enough of the 🐩, back to 🐈‍⬛
Jul 13, 2012
11,442
62,397
Tesla friendly place
Everyone who got excited watching the S on the Nürburgring last year and Laguna this year. :p



My thought originally was that they would definitely be designing their cars to easily move between 4680 and 21700/18650 so that if 4680 didn't ramp they could easily switch back and forth. It would be weird to build a new factory that could only produce cars with 4680 because that's a LOT of risk.

If 4680 production has gone better than expected I could totally see them dropping the two forms of Model S (4680 and 18650) and just moving forward with 100% 4680. If that is the case I think that will be an extremely bullish sign. It's also possible that it went the other way, with the Plaid + having been destined for 4680s but without enough supply. In that case they are ditching the 4680 design which wouldn't be as promising. If that did happen then perhaps Roadster and maybe Semi will be pushed forward. Seems unlikely though. I think 4680 has ramped as well or better than planned.
They can NOT easily switch back and forth. That’s like saying they can easily switch body panels. Every battery needs a battery casing. Hint, those are made of metal requiring die sets. Die sets require a year to design, build and validate. Casings would not be interchangeable by the very fact their size and shapes would be different and every other piece of the car needs to fit to it. Now we introduce the castings and battery as structure and we’d be talking crash tests every time battery and casings are different. No, they aren’t going to make a structural battery casing to fit the larger cells and then just stuff empty space for smaller battery form factor.

No. Just no.

The new Plaid S will have the old form factor batteries. The Plaid + that was intended to have the new form factor and battery as structure is cancelled. For now.

I say hooray!!! Tesla has too much on its plate as it stands. They don’t need to be worrying about all these battery variants, especially within the same product. A product they don’t need to even make. That’s right, they haven’t been selling the S or X for several months now and all those people that cried a river how that would be the end of Tesla can be quiet now. I’d be delighted if they never made the S or X again. Concentrate on the 3 and Y, opening new factories and getting them up to speed, getting the new battery technology ironed out for those vehicles, and then the new Model 2. Those vehicles are far more important.

Edit: and CYBRTRCK and Semi
 
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StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
9,773
78,168
Maple Falls, WA
Oh gawd. This is going to keep that BS HFCV debate alive for a very long time.


Actually, this is the kind of government support that renewable technologies need. This is money to jumpstart better ideas for renewable hydrogen. Yes, the payback period could be a decade or more (or never) but let's be glad it's not government funding for hydrogen re-fueling stations. Yes, it might be $400 million wasted but this is the kind of speculative research money the private sector is not willing to fund. The private sector funds things like NKLA, LOL!
 

JRP3

Hyperactive Member
Aug 20, 2007
20,549
48,205
Central New York
I believe that shortest distance is take what will likely be the lightest car at the time.
Range matters for long distance driving and is influenced by battery capacity and aerodynamics, weight is less of a factor. You also need physical room to fit the pack, which is why the S and X have 100kWh packs which couldn't fit in a 3.
Honestly at that point does it really matter if the Model S is the longest range Tesla? Typically with most cars the best mileage is the smaller cars. People expect that.
Not with EV's where range comes from pack size, which costs more money for larger packs, the opposite of range in an ICE, which comes from smaller more efficient engines.
 

pnungesser

BarNun
Dec 9, 2015
284
1,327
Mill Spring, NC
Enjoy the ride on the new track!

Dit anyone else notice how many casting were spread around the site? There are stacks near the press and more in an adjoining lot. Also look at 2:30+ and it looks like a lot more stacked along the fence by the rail lines. Why would they produce hundreds/thousands(?) more than they need in the short-run? For shipping to another location? Planning for press shutdown for conversion to a different die? If so, new die for what part? Interested in your thoughts.
 

Chunky Jr.

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Mar 9, 2018
1,562
22,803
CA
I can't imagine they would cancel Plaid+ if it was more popular than the Plaid. In that case, cancel the Plaid and just ship the higher priced Plaid+. I could see them cancelling Plaid+ if it is only marginally better than the Plaid and it isn't worth the extra manufacturing overhead. I could also see them cancelling it because Roadster could take its place.
 

Krugerrand

Enough of the 🐩, back to 🐈‍⬛
Jul 13, 2012
11,442
62,397
Tesla friendly place
I think you misinterpreted what Elon means. Moats are competitive advantages. No one thinks having competitive advantages are lame. What's the opposite of this then? Having competitive disadvanges?

Elon was saying you can't rest on your lurals once you have a moat like trying to spend more time defending that specific moat than to create more moats. It's like guarding the secret formula of coca cola vs inventing new flavors. So the pace of innovation is what gives you infinite moats and that becomes a moat itself.
Or instead of trying to make what he said fit your interpretation to win an argument, we can just take what he said at face value; moats are lame, pace on innovation is what matters. And leave it at that.
 

Christine69420

Autopilot's Assistant
Supporting Member
Oct 19, 2018
1,326
16,077
Scandiwegian
Dit anyone else notice how many casting were spread around the site? There are stacks near the press and more in an adjoining lot. Also look at 2:30+ and it looks like a lot more stacked along the fence by the rail lines. Why would they produce hundreds/thousands(?) more than they need in the short-run? For shipping to another location? Planning for press shutdown for conversion to a different die? If so, new die for what part? Interested in your thoughts.
Some of the Quad Squad filming Giga Texas believe they might be sending castings from Texas to Fremont. This could explain the increased amount of castings seen but exactly why and which car the castings are made for I haven't heard anything about.
 

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