2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Well, at least Nikola is still there for us to depend on ...
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Just picked up our family's 1st Tesla last night, a pearl white LR Model 3. Fit and finish were flawless. The only thing I noticed was slight leakage of some kind when we got home which I'm assuming is condensation from running the AC all the way home (I'm in blazing-hot Georgia). This will be my wife's car, as she just quit her university job (sign language interpreter) to freelance, which requires a lot of driving. Her mileage checks are going to cover the payment and the safety of the M3 more than justifies the cost. We didn't go with FSD but are eagerly anticipating the button!
With both of us being (basically) educators this is a little bit of a "Tesla stretch", and there is no way I would've had the confidence to do this without the financial backstop of our TSLA investment. I've been invested since 2013, largely due to lurking and learning here. The original plan was to invest in TSLA so maybe one day we could afford a Tesla, but we can afford a bunch of them now and our kids can attend college wherever they damn well please (rather than being limited to public in-state schools). This one investment has allowed us to live comfortably above our pay grade.
Now I've just gotta start saving for my Plaid Cybertruck (reservation number is in the 113s) so I don't have to sell any chairs when the time comes. I figure I've got 18 months or so before my turn arrives.
Anyway, sorry about the text wall of non-market stuff but I figured I'd share this "mission accomplished" moment with my peeps before market open. Keeping up with the company has been fascinating and I'm addicted, but my advice to newer investors is simple: HODL. TSLA was exciting, but ultimately stagnant from 2015-2019 and I was tempted to just cut my losses at the May/June 2019 lows. Ultimately, I bought 10 more shares instead, and the gains on those shares alone are more than the sizable down payment we just put down on the new Tesla. The confidence to do that came from the Tesla community.
Anyway, thanks and please feel free to respond with any good mountain or island salespeople because we are about a 2x from that not being a joke any more.
Cheers everybody!
With both of us being (basically) educators this is a little bit of a "Tesla stretch", and there is no way I would've had the confidence to do this without the financial backstop of our TSLA investment. I've been invested since 2013, largely due to lurking and learning here. The original plan was to invest in TSLA so maybe one day we could afford a Tesla, but we can afford a bunch of them now and our kids can attend college wherever they damn well please (rather than being limited to public in-state schools). This one investment has allowed us to live comfortably above our pay grade.
Now I've just gotta start saving for my Plaid Cybertruck (reservation number is in the 113s) so I don't have to sell any chairs when the time comes. I figure I've got 18 months or so before my turn arrives.
Anyway, sorry about the text wall of non-market stuff but I figured I'd share this "mission accomplished" moment with my peeps before market open. Keeping up with the company has been fascinating and I'm addicted, but my advice to newer investors is simple: HODL. TSLA was exciting, but ultimately stagnant from 2015-2019 and I was tempted to just cut my losses at the May/June 2019 lows. Ultimately, I bought 10 more shares instead, and the gains on those shares alone are more than the sizable down payment we just put down on the new Tesla. The confidence to do that came from the Tesla community.
Anyway, thanks and please feel free to respond with any good mountain or island salespeople because we are about a 2x from that not being a joke any more.
Cheers everybody!
True but seriously misleading in the first part. By far the leading source of GOOG income is 'sponsored links' and other 'placements'. Direct solicitation of business search related revenue is a gigantic business. Facebook and Twitter is closely related activities. Windows/Microsoft have little in common with the others from a revenue perspective. Alphabet does have Android that has a revenue stream similar to that of Windows, but the rest of their businesses are divergent.
Lastly, 'monopoly' is not appropriately used in this context. Not too long ago Microsoft seemed to have monopoly dominance in several areas including the late, not lamented Explorer. Technologies advance so very quickly that seemingly invincible leaders disappear almost overnight. Do you remember AOL? Alta Vista? Yahoo? Vestiges of all three still, more or less, exist. All three were considered invincible.
Consider the timeline of search engines alone. Courtesy of wiki:
Elon has repeatedly said that 'moats don't exist'. Simply his dedication to rapid evolution is the only conceivable source fo continuing success.
Monopolies really no longer much exist, even when they are seemingly defined purposely. Think of Post Offices. Think of Telephone Companies.
We really need to avoid using terminology that doses no longer have practical relevance: The first two words that should not be used are: 'advertising' and 'monopoly'. Both are nearly obsolescent, along with 'imperial measures' yielding to 'metric' and 'kingdoms' yielding to 'republics'. Clearly, 'nearly obsolescent' is NOT equal to 'extinct'.
Thus broadcast TV plus local and national, even supranational advertising still exists. The famous Super Bowl is a case in point. Kingdoms do too.
We'll all do much better with each other if we use our vocabulary carefully.
Most of us are wild enthusiast for TSLA, as am I. Being so does not suggest we can ignore reality. There are risks, some very large ones. The better we understand those the more realistic we can be in assessing how TSLA can surmount those risks.
Just consider how much market share Tesla has in any given stronghold compared to every other competitor. Take Norway, or even Atherton, California, USA. Then consider that Tesla sells almost nothing at all in most parts of even places with high Tesla density. Those are great opportunities and great risks.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
This may be an indicator of a new business for Tesla to consider developing.
The manufacturing and sales of
and 
for shareholders. 
Krugerrand
Meow
But do you think he read past the first paragraph?
Prime_Number
Member
Re: Tesla Annual Shareholders Meeting
Recently Elon said that the meeting this year would take place at the end of July or in August. Last year they announced the meeting on August 21rst for September 22nd. Exactly a month prior.
That means we should get an announcement very soon. We should also get notice if they will be asking for approval to increase the number of shares they are able to issue. We might get a signal of a potential stock split in the next 2 to 4 weeks !
Recently Elon said that the meeting this year would take place at the end of July or in August. Last year they announced the meeting on August 21rst for September 22nd. Exactly a month prior.
That means we should get an announcement very soon. We should also get notice if they will be asking for approval to increase the number of shares they are able to issue. We might get a signal of a potential stock split in the next 2 to 4 weeks !
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
All I can do is put it out there. In all honesty he may actually read it, though he rarely has responded to similar novels from me.
You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make them think.
I thought Lucid had access to Saudi deep pockets?
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
To coin a phrase, Lucid may now be out of their depth, so to speak.
Krugerrand
Meow
Recent report posted here is that the Saudi money is about out and Lucid needs the SPAC money to proceed.
No way to know it’s true just yet, but I’d not be the least bit surprised and it’s well within the realm of expectation given what we know about Tesla’s beginnings and how expensive it is to start a new car manufacturer. Plus, I’m quite positive that Rawlinson and team aren’t half as capable as Elon and team, the latter almost didn’t make it and to this day continue to put extraordinary attention into cost cutting efficiencies across the board.
Hype or No Hype, Lucid Motors Can't Evade These Ugly Truths
CCIV stock has been gaining ground lately. But despite the near-term hoopla around Lucid as a “Tesla killer,” it's bound for disappointment.
investorplace.com
CCIV shareholders will own a minority interest in Lucid Motors (19.1%). So, it’s worth taking a closer look at the company’s ownership structure and governance. Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, or Public Investment Fund (PIF) will own approximately 62% of the company once the acquisition is complete
An interesting thread from Sawyer yesterday that I haven't seen mentioned fully. This was originally sourced from Troy's Patreon (and apparantly shared with permission):
I won't post the whole thread but basicially the main points are:
1. China exports of Model Y to Europe from Q3
2. Model S Plaid will be exported to Europe in October.
3. Tesla is still planning to shut down Model Y production at Fremont when Giga Texas starts making the Model Y 2.0. However, they are now considering whether the shutdown will be temporary or permanent.
4. Texas Model Y will be slightly different than the Berlin version.
5. Model Y production in Shanghai has a Build Failure Rate of less than 3% which is exceptionally low in the industry. The target for Model Y 2.0 in Berlin is less than 2%.
The first and seconds points I think I'd heard about earlier. The suggestion that Tesla would shutdown Y production in Fremont is new to me but does make some sense given the differences. However there would be some overlap until Austin can ramp enough to replace Fremont capacity.
I would also add to this that I suspect Shanghai will also start making a Model Y2.0 around a similar time to Austin. This may just be in the form of front and rear castings as the current works are roughly doubling the existing casting area. Initial batteries may not be structural and may have to wait until CATL can build their new factory or Tesla can source their own.
I won't post the whole thread but basicially the main points are:
1. China exports of Model Y to Europe from Q3
2. Model S Plaid will be exported to Europe in October.
3. Tesla is still planning to shut down Model Y production at Fremont when Giga Texas starts making the Model Y 2.0. However, they are now considering whether the shutdown will be temporary or permanent.
4. Texas Model Y will be slightly different than the Berlin version.
5. Model Y production in Shanghai has a Build Failure Rate of less than 3% which is exceptionally low in the industry. The target for Model Y 2.0 in Berlin is less than 2%.
The first and seconds points I think I'd heard about earlier. The suggestion that Tesla would shutdown Y production in Fremont is new to me but does make some sense given the differences. However there would be some overlap until Austin can ramp enough to replace Fremont capacity.
I would also add to this that I suspect Shanghai will also start making a Model Y2.0 around a similar time to Austin. This may just be in the form of front and rear castings as the current works are roughly doubling the existing casting area. Initial batteries may not be structural and may have to wait until CATL can build their new factory or Tesla can source their own.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Blood thicker than water; Oil thicker than blood: (tweets from yesterday)
Whole Mars Catalog on Twitter: "so i’m going to have to delete this in 10 minutes cuz I promised I wouldn’t share it but apparently Lucid has no money right now. the bridge the saudis gave them is drying up and they are thirsty waiting for that SPAC funding to come in
@elonmusk $CCIV" / TwitterBill Wright on Twitter: "@WholeMarsBlog @elonmusk I can vouch on this. Hiring offers are being made with future add’t funding as a stipulation…" / Twitter
Saudi's appear NOT to be sugar daddy's; *sugar* daddy's.
Elon saved our bacon w. the $40M tweet.
Thanks again, Elon.
I might be said to have limited knowledge of Chinese marketing. Despite that a Chinese tech firm is the largest single client for my colleagues, so I am fairly well informed about Chinese tech practices.
Neither Tesla nor most Chinese techs do conventional advertising.
Chinese social media and 'social media influencers' (almost but not quite exactly 'celebrities' although that is a usable term) are hugely important.
Tesla China has legions of such influencers and social media groups that are vastly more influential than is TMC. Why? Because they gain huge audiences that are not primarily connected with Tesla already.
Similarly, many other competitors also use similar techniques. It is those that frequently spread one sort of FUD or another. Tesla China has thus far been extraordinarily effective in combatting such FUD.
The realities are also deeply local and regional as are regulations and incentives in several important categories.
Having been fairly deeply into all this on behalf on that client I will assert that the Tesla China circumstances reflect an unusually mature and disciplined approach. It is not accidental that, apart from some technologies and designs Tesla China operates as a Chinese company, not an import.
Discussion of this issue would require volumes.
As an aside, since my first China business trip in 1978 and ever since I am constantly reminded how little I know. That is not false modesty. China is not only the most populous country on earth, it is also one of the most diverse. Those who think in monolithic terms cannot even begin to understand at themes superficial level. Such things as driving permits in cities are locally decided. It is a trifle difficult to understand that when the most widely sold BEVs are thus far totally unregulated almost everywhere, not requiring licenses for the vehicle nor even the drivers. That is only one of the many ways that "the Chinese car market" is itself a bit of a misnomer, a bit like 'the European car market' or the 'North American car market'.
Any guesses for day of the month?
I'm guessing 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23, 29, or 31.
Why, well I guess there is the fundamental “liquidity experiment” being done AFTER investing over a billion dollars. Makes zero sense to me. Engineers test, test, test. They don’t buy an enormous quantity of a resource only to qualify it later.
Further, there is no point in such a test. Seems to me I have noticed that what happens one day in the market does not guarantee future similar reactions…. Something about “past performance guaranteeing future results” etc. And if you have already been buying enormous quantities you have had an opportunity to witness liquidity.
The meaningful info was that Tesla was holding and not selling. The coiners got the message. This makes further sales highly unlikely and suggests (perhaps) they are comfortable with Q2 financial horizon.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
I'm still catching up - sorry this reply goes into trading times.
I think the second part is the message legacy OEMs should be saying to counter the fear from the first part (lower servicing income). It may not be true, I'd trust an EV specialist more than main dealer, but it's a message that might hit home to dealers nevertheless
It seems to me that all this suggests that Tesla is reaching maturity in factory approach so there will be significant differences between products built in various factories. That really is not unusual even in traditional OEMs. There have often been localized versions of products that reflected local legal or market conditions.
Until Shanghai has been maturing these adaptations would have been folly. From now on we'll all have an interesting time understanding the differences between models with the same name.
One might remember the global variants of the Ford Falcon. The Australian 1971 Falcon GTHO gave me the most memorable Melbourne-Perth drive...
Not too long from now we'll end out with Tesla memories like that from regional variants.
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