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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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The writings on the wall.....

 
Here is the Options open interest and Max Pain history for Jun 18/21 expiries starting on Apr 9th: (each row shown is the first date on which Max Pain changed)

View attachment 673238

Notice that the number of open contracts expiring this Friday is now truly epic over 1.4 M contracts representing 140 million shares (that's how many shares traded at the closing cross on Dec 18/20 for the S&P 500 inclusion). And there's still 5 days of trading to go this week.

Buckle up, this could be an unforgettable ride.

Cheers!
Dang it Dodger,
With maxPain at $555 right now what does an "Unforgettable" ride mean?
 
Come on MMs. Can you at least let us hit $650?
Is Redwood Materials public or still private?

Any chance to invest in there?

Battery-Recycling will be big in 5-10 years.
Private as far as I know. Haven't seen any private equity funds either. If you are into the space check out ABML in the meantime, but I'd love to add Redwood if I could.
 
The camera has an ~infinite range, it can see the sun which is far away etc. The 250m is what Mobileye or someone said that their neural network could accurately detect vehicles at. I assume with bigger neural network, with autolabelled data(4D, RNN etc), with the BEV-network having 250m+ output, the neural network will be able to accurately output vehicle detections at a longer range in most highway situations.
At some point the vehicle will only be one pixel and even the best NN won´t be able to turn this into anything helpful..
 
Why, well I guess there is the fundamental “liquidity experiment” being done AFTER investing over a billion dollars. Makes zero sense to me. Engineers test, test, test. They don’t buy an enormous quantity of a resource only to qualify it later.

Further, there is no point in such a test. Seems to me I have noticed that what happens one day in the market does not guarantee future similar reactions…. Something about “past performance guaranteeing future results” etc. And if you have already been buying enormous quantities you have had an opportunity to witness liquidity.

The meaningful info was that Tesla was holding and not selling. The coiners got the message. This makes further sales highly unlikely and suggests (perhaps) they are comfortable with Q2 financial horizon.
Yeah. You’re putting way too much of your personal speculation into the situation. I’ll just sit over here and take Tesla’s word for it that they did what they did for the reasons they stated and leave it at that. But if I ever want to write an epic tale, I’ll know who to come to for story ideas.
 
The Ship of Theseus is the question of whether an object that has had all of its components replaced over time is still the same object. …
Way OT:

This ticked a brain cell. A fascinating read is the history of Cal Rodger’s first US transcontinental flight in a Wright Model EX in 1911. He made many stops (both scheduled and unscheduled) along the way and his plane was repaired so many times that there was virtually nothing left of the original when he finally made it to California.
 
Not if potential customers don' t know about the price decrease.

Advertising executive: The best advertising is a TV commercial.

RobStark: Not if potential customers don't watch TV.... Er...wait, strike that. I almost forgot, I'm supposed to be trying to get Tesla to SPEND money on advertising. I mean, how can Ford compete with a $38K Tesla?

This continues to come up, the idea that Tesla needs to advertise, it won't die, it's like the Energizer Bunny. We've taken the batteries out and shown there's nothing there. Yet the Energizer Bunny just keeps going. With no batteries!

Cars are very price sensitive, consumers shop around before they spend the most they've ever spent on anything else (except perhaps a home). They compare prices and what they can get. Who pays for the advertising? The consumer, of course! Elon doesn't treat the consumer like a stupid idiot with money to burn on making advertising executives wealthy, he runs a tight ship. Because he knows consumers like to get the most value for their hard-earned money they can get.

Advertising is for products that don't offer superior value. Tesla's competition would love nothing more for Tesla to spend $1,000/car (the more the better) on advertising. Because they know it will help make their own cars a little more price competitive with Tesla's. And they know it will make Tesla look mortal, begging for customers, more like themselves. It will remove that "not the typical corporation" halo that Tesla enjoys, particularly with the younger generations who are skeptical of the status quo.

The competition doesn't know how to compete with a company that doesn't pay the advertising mafia. They send their hitmen to write negative stories on Tesla, or, better yet, that stubborn man Elon Musk who is making the decision to not force his customers to pay them. They try to make him look like a greedy, tax-dodging billionaire out only for himself and the cars look like cheap jalopies with unflattering styling that fall apart before you get them home. But the stories don't work with enough people, the company still manages to sell every car they make. And the more they sell, the more new people find out about what a wonderful product it is. They see the wonderful craftsmanship, the beautiful lines, the glowing reviews from the owners and they are befuddled. This is not what they expected! They have been deceived! Now they too are "in the know". Now they can tell their friends the stories are not true, the cars are not what you expect, and they know, because just a few months ago they were in a similar spot, deceived by lies, but now they know.

The best advertising is a having a great product at a great price and the testimony of an exponentially growing body of people who have already figured it out. People you know and trust, your niece or nephew, your co-worker or your pastor, not some professional paid to change your mind. Advertising can make more people think you have a great product but it makes the product even more unobtainable. And people love to talk smack about nice things they can't have. Tesla is about bringing the future to the people, not showing them wonderful things they can not have.
 
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Come on MMs. Can you at least let us hit $650?

Private as far as I know. Haven't seen any private equity funds either. If you are into the space check out ABML in the meantime, but I'd love to add Redwood if I could.

If you’re interested in battery recycling, Belgium’s Umicore claims to be a world leader in battery recycling:
 
When Tesla is going for 2.5-3+m sales per year (random number could be higher, could be lower), they will probably have to advertise especially with how they have to record the sales. Right now, we are just not at a point where Tesla has to do much to move vehicles. Some referrals, maybe some free supercharging, long trial FSD... none of those really cost Tesla all that much. When they actually have to take incentives that have a significant margin hit to move vehicles, then it will make sense to lessen hit that with advertising. Until that point, I'm fine with no advertising.

Now PR... I have swung to the other side there. Wouldn't be huge cost and could really clear up a few things that have significant short term hits. IE the 'no driver' crash.