Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

Not sure if you all follow Dr. know it all… But he’s a pretty sharp cookie. Multiple PhD‘s. Including physics and mathematics.

According to the math that he lays out in this video; FSD will be solved within the year. Couldn’t time stamp it; but if you start at 8:00 min mark you’ll get the nuts and bolts of it.

So…, two weeks is coming up quick!

That's a... weird... video... his first assumption is # of interventions per km, which he appears to base on... his personal driving in the car. So that's a...not great...assumption to apply fleet (and world) wide to start with.

He then tells us intervention rate will drop exponentially based ENTIRELY on collecting more data.... which is... overly reductive? Indeed, at 13:12 he admits he's just making an assumption that's true, and everything he concludes is based on that assumption.... which he thinks must be true because "that's how physics works"


I mean absolutely having tons of data is essential for training up NNs... but they're not the ONLY thing needed.

Tesla has already fundamentally changed their approach to FSD development at least twice since 2016, and changed the HW needed 1 or 2 times as well (depending if you count the 2->2.5 HW change). Clearly there's more to solving this than just:

Step 1. Collect data
Step 3. PROFIT!

 

[capster]

Again, if things work according to plan, Elon will make over $200B per year on average for the next 6 years. That's 1 "Bezo" worth of assets each year.

Elon's not greedy. He's working to extend civilization to Mars. He needs some money to do that sure, but more and more he needs Starships.

Together, his Tesla stake (~$1.35T), his SpaceX (perhaps $1T by 2030?), his Starlink (another $T?), give him the capital he'll need.

Offering Elon more money won't change his goals, or his behavior. That's what pay incentives are designed to do, but that ship is already docked in port.

Why do any of use spend our time working here w/o a salary? How are we compensated? What makes it worth the time? The Mission? The SP gains? It's exactly the same for Elon, but I bet he has more fun!

Cheers!

I expect Elon to negotiate another package even if he "doesn’t want more money."

He will want to minimize any risk of loss of control of the company due to dilution or other events such as using funds for Mars colonization as well as paying taxes on the realization of the gains for those funds.

He will want to use some of his assets to help fund Mars colonization and more funds will be helpful.

He has shown that he wants such packages because he agreed to the previous one.

Everyone wants to feel appreciated and at times the unpaid are taken for granted because some feel they’ll do the work anyway.

I appreciate his work, hope he continues, and will support another package. Indeed I expect there’s some mulling over the next one already happening at Tesla and in Elon’s mind.

 

[AimStellar]

 

[Unpilot]

This stonk is weird.

 

[SOULPEDL]

This is one of the things that I really hope the CT has.

Agree, I think CT will have biodefense mode for multiple reasons. One being CT production is near, and Elon's talking about bio more. Why pump it up to not deliver it on a vehicle that clearly has armor all over it!

Initial, I bet it was debated for cost reasons, but the margins are likely more real now. I say it's on, and not even as an option - like who would buy that variant to complicate production further?

 

[kbM3]

The great James Douma on Tesla Vision

https://twitter.com/x/status/1405188661910540290

 

[madodel]

View attachment 674001

Does any other manufacturer own and operate their own charging network other than Tesla? People using public chargers are paying for the electric, the infrastructure (build and maintenance) and profit. Unless something has changed Tesla only charges for the electric. Will non-Tesla users pay toward the build out and maintenance overhead that we pay for by purchasing our cars?

 

[mltv]

Tesla Makes Great Progress in Installing Production Equipment at Giga Berlin, Leaked Photos Show

New photos of Giga Berlin, recently leaked on the Internet, show Tesla continues to actively install production equipment. The Body in white Shop (BIW) will soon be ready for production.

www.tesmanian.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

I expect Elon to negotiate another package even if he "doesn’t want more money."

He will want to minimize any risk of loss of control of the company due to dilution or other events such as using funds for Mars colonization as well as paying taxes on the realization of the gains for those funds.

He will want to use some of his assets to help fund Mars colonization and more funds will be helpful.

He has shown that he wants such packages because he agreed to the previous one.

Everyone wants to feel appreciated and at times the unpaid are taken for granted because some feel they’ll do the work anyway.

I appreciate his work, hope he continues, and will support another package. Indeed I expect there’s some mulling over the next one already happening at Tesla and in Elon’s mind.

Yeah, I don't agree. Elon doesn't particularly enjoy spending his time on CEO things, but it's required right now for his compensation plan. His 3-yrs since handing over the Chairman of the Board role is up in November. I expect he'll resume that role, and Chief Product Architect.

I expect the next CEO compensation plan to go to Zach, and I expect the current CEO plan will see the 12th tranche vesting within about 18 mths (there's only the Operation Milestones and Revenue targets remaining now; all Mkt Cap requirements have already been attained).

 

[Beltsbear]

Ok, what just happened?

Probably not responsible for all of the gain, but the 'environmental' group NABU in Germany got smackdown in their request to stop work at GF Berlin

 

[Drezil]

Does any other manufacturer own and operate their own charging network other than Tesla? People using public chargers are paying for the electric, the infrastructure (build and maintenance) and profit. Unless something has changed Tesla only charges for the electric. Will non-Tesla users pay toward the build out and maintenance overhead that we pay for by purchasing our cars?

VW has a big stake in IONITY & when you buy a car from them (or Audi or some other brand) you get a "club card" so you charge for 49ct/kWh instead of the 79ct/kWh non-club-members have to pay.
Tesla could keep on charging 37ct/kWh for Tesla-customers and something like 59ct/kWh for "other". Or charge depending on the car.
All you need by law is that the price you charge for gets displayed beforehand (e.g. in an app) & can adjust dependeng on A LOT of factors ..

Yes. The whole system is stupid. But you can do it. If you open up you have to open up to ANYBODY with a CCS-Charger - but you can charge insane high rates for people having really slow charging cars to fend them off.

 

[Discoducky]

"this is not a race we are here to have fun"

“I solemnly swear that I am up to no good.” There's usually at least some free time, alone time or a time trial of some sort. I get that some days are just for fun, but most tracks allow for competition drive times. I guess YMMV depending on the types of groups you hang with...

For instance, if your class has lap times in the 1.5 minutes range, with the fastest car going first and allowing a warm up lap so you hit the start line at speed, you'd allow a wave of about 10 cars spaced 8 seconds apart. Rules are if a car comes up on you then you relinquish the optimal race line and do not impede. You could do three laps or so of open air.

 

[Curt Renz]

Probably not responsible for all of the gain, but the 'environmental' group NABU in Germany got smackdown in their request to stop work at GF Berlin

Source?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Source?

 

[redan]

Whether you like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) or not, it's hard to deny the company has accomplished something tremendous. In under two decades, this electric vehicle (EV) maker has disrupted a 130-year-old industry. Not surprisingly, shares of Tesla are up 860%.

But even after those gains, Tesla stock could still crush the market over the next decade. Here's why.

3 Reasons Tesla Stock Could Still Crush the Market | The Motley Fool

Tesla shareholders could see significant gains over the next decade.

www.fool.com

 

[insaneoctane]

It seems to me the important question is whether after detecting a log in the road at 820’ at 200 mph the mechanical braking system can come to a stop In 819’.

Does anyone here expect FSD, Autopilot, or safety features to work at 200 MPH? Seems pretty likely that Tesla would state that they don’t work above XX MPH. Even if the safety features were allowed to function beyond that warning, certainly they would degrade the more you exceeded the warning speed?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Ok, what just happened?

Shorts saving ammo for Friday, but running out early is my guess.
The buying is on, just that the shorts let their foot off the gas pedal.

 

[snellenr]

Probably not responsible for all of the gain, but the 'environmental' group NABU in Germany got smackdown in their request to stop work at GF Berlin

 

[cdswm3]

Market is too stupid to realize there's no room for F and GM to grow. The more money they "invest" in EV, the worse their 10-K is going to look. There's no upsides in growth or gross margin in store for them. Only downhill from here.

Companies can adapt very quickly when needed. F and GM will do just fine. Buyers want choice and they will be part of that choice. I am still long Tesla (Much less than I was at the beginning of the year) but to expect most major car manufactures to go away is foolish.

 

[insaneoctane]

Here's my takeaway from this. If you consider full size trucks a set pie of ~2.3m that is the same sales were in 2020, and that over time, will go fully electric. 24% is ~550k sales per year. 34% consider the specs the most important factor, where Tesla is consistently the top today in all their vehicles, that would be ~780k sales per year. Now the 2.3m is unlikely to stay static for a few reasons, first 2020 was a down year from 2019 where nearly 2.5m full size trucks were sold. Second, there will be conquests and an expanding market from Tesla fans, EV fans, full size SUV owners that don't have an EV option (yet), potentially expansion into other markets that are not usually into trucks to the same degree as Americans, plus this excludes Canada and Mexico sales. All that probably points to a TAM of ~3m vehicles per year. 24% there is ~720k and 34% is ~1m. The CT alone has the potential to equal Tesla's total 2021 sales by sometime in 2023/2024... at even higher margins.

While I believe CT interest is through the roof, I do think that Tesla’s CT reservation numbers are likely skewed. I’ve read multiple times about how many reservations single buyers have. I personally have 4, but will only maybe buy 1. Others are worse offenders. And, while I have never previously been a truck buyer, I am a Tesla buyer…