Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Probably not responsible for all of the gain, but the 'environmental' group NABU in Germany got smackdown in their request to stop work at GF Berlin

Yeah, I've been watching this all week. Good news don't matter to MMs though, they'll try to brute force whatever SP they prefer for a triple-witching Friday. Walk-dn now in progress.

 

[Prunesquallor]

View attachment 674001

That sounds close to nationalization. I hope Tesla charges a pretty penny.

 

[Knightshade]

Does anyone here expect FSD, Autopilot, or safety features to work at 200 MPH?

Germans, at least, might.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Does anyone here expect FSD, Autopilot, or safety features to work at 200 MPH? Seems pretty likely that Tesla would state that they don’t work above XX MPH. Even if the safety features were allowed to function beyond that warning, certainly they would degrade the more you exceeded the warning speed?

Safety features don't guarantee no collisions today. The car will attempt to avoid is all that's promised, so it should still succeed if allowed at 200mph. My guess is FSD may show up as options in the future for various driving scenarios. So why not 200 mph FSD just for the racetrack $, or Mountain-Mode for CT with Tree and species identification for fun? $$$

 

[lafrisbee]

This isn't necessarily true though.

Some legacy companies won't survive the transition- others will.

At least some of the ones that do are likely to end up with more market share than they had before the transition.

Teslas #s have them with roughly 20% of new car sales in 2030. SOMEBODY needs to sell the other 80%.

It's possible say GM actually does a great job building battery plants and grows significantly at the expense of say Ford who spent years "thinking about" battery plants.

It's possible Ford building much more interesting EVs than GM somehow finds a way to get batteries and grows significantly at the expense of GM.

(or sub in VW for GM and I dunno Mercedes or BMW for Ford up there- or whatever combo you want).

So it's entirely possible some legacy will see significant growth and upside long term from the transition. It'll just be by taking share from OTHER legacy companies.

The trick is guessing WHICH ones are on which side of that. Just buying TSLA instead avoids that concern.


To use that phone comparison everyone likes- Apple obviously has been a great investment for folks during the transition from dumb to smart phones, but that doesn't mean nobody found a reason to own Samsung stock in that time.....but OTOH some folks still owned Nokia way too long

you scared the -ose out of me with that Nokia reference!

 

[insaneoctane]

Yes I think that's what he is saying. He was able to hit 160mph in the straight away of Laguna Seca with a McLaren Senna which is a stock production car record. He run a 1:27.9 in a stock McLaren 765LT. Is he better than Randy idk lol.



At least on the track days that I have been to they always say "this is not a race we are here to have fun". The group that you are assigned to has nothing to do with what car you drive but your skill level and some groups require signaling to pass. Randy since he is an instructor he can run on whatever group he wants and I assume they run in whatever group had the fewest cars so they could test the car. You can tell that the drivers were not very skilled and there was signaling from the Porsche.

Don't get me wrong the Model S Plaid is amazing and I want one. The car shows that is a monster specially on how easily passes the P1 on the straight away.

Even if that McLaren was being driven conservatively, once they make the last 90 degree left turn onto the straight away, I guarantee that car is floored. Even the most timid of drivers will floor it once straight and on the long straight away, even if that’s the only place they dare hammer it on the whole course. That said, it is precisely during the straight away that the Plaid exhibits total domination. The other cars look like Civics in comparison and I strongly suspect they are floored. To be totally fair, Pobst might take that last corner faster and have a better exit speed, but STILL.

 

[Knightshade]

Companies can adapt very quickly when needed.

Research In Motion would like a word with you

F and GM will do just fine. Buyers want choice and they will be part of that choice. I am still long Tesla (Much less than I was at the beginning of the year) but to expect most major car manufactures to go away is foolish.

I don't know about most, but certainly SOME will go away.

Some might get out of the consumer car business (but continue being an ongoing concern because they do other things)

Some will adapt and survive.

If you think you can be reasonably sure which is which there's potentially money to be made there.

Or, you could just buy TSLA.

 

[insaneoctane]

Yeah, I don't agree. Elon doesn't particularly enjoy spending his time on CEO things, but it's required right now for his compensation plan. His 3-yrs since handing over the Chairman of the Board role is up in November. I expect he'll resume that role, and Chief Product Architect.

I expect the next CEO compensation plan to go to Zach, and I expect the current CEO plan will see the 12th tranche vesting within about 18 mths (there's only the Operation Milestones and Revenue targets remaining now; all Mkt Cap requirements have already been attained).

Regardless of who the CEO actually is….What’s everyone‘s prediction about how high the last Mkt Cap tranche would go on the next CEO compensation plan??? Fun to consider….

 

[Cherry Wine]

Good summary of FOMC minutes.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it might hike interest rates earlier than it had previously expected, penciling in two interest rate hikes in 2023.

In its statement, the Fed stuck to its guns and said the recent burst of inflation would be transitory. At the same time, it acknowledged that inflation would be much higher this year, raising its forecast for headline PCE inflation to 3%.

The new Fed statement removed prior language that said the pandemic was “causing tremendous human and economic hardship” across the country. Instead, the Fed said that progress on vaccinations has reduced the spread of COVID-19.

According to the Fed’s dot plot chart, 11 of 18 officials expect at least two rate hikes in 2023. In March, only seven expected one hike.

Seven officials now see the first hike next year, up from four in March.

The Fed is buying $80 billion of Treasurys and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities each month, along with keeping its benchmark rate pinned close to zero, in a concerted effort to keep financial markets stable and support the economy.

The Fed has said it wanted to see “substantial further progress” before slowing down the purchases — the first step of pulling back all the support for the economy.

The statement made no mention of whether the Fed discussed tapering the asset purchases.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Offer Zach $200M to take over as CEO when the time comes

Never happen. The moment a bean counter (no matter how good) is made CEO of Tesla is the moment I'm completely out. Idiocy. It would mean Elon is dead or has lost his mind.

 

[lafrisbee]

While I believe CT interest is through the roof, I do think that Tesla’s CT reservation numbers are likely skewed. I’ve read multiple times about how many reservations single buyers have. I personally have 4, but will only maybe buy 1. Others are worse offenders. And, while I have never previously been a truck buyer, I am a Tesla buyer…

OK, but also figure in my scenario. I reserved three. I now have one of my closest friends asking if I will let him have one of the reservations, and 2 other friends mentioning they might want one of the reservations I don't use.
ALL three of them scoffed me when I put in a reservation, but now they've gotten bitten.
I think the multi-holders will soon find they have friend indeed.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Does anyone here expect FSD, Autopilot, or safety features to work at 200 MPH? Seems pretty likely that Tesla would state that they don’t work above XX MPH. Even if the safety features were allowed to function beyond that warning, certainly they would degrade the more you exceeded the warning speed?

Yeah, I didn't reply to this question since, if the car stops as hard as it accelerates (doubtful), then it needs 2 sec to go from 60-0 mph. That leaves just 0.8 sec to go from 200-60 mph in this increasing dubious scenario... anybody wanna calculate the G's in that smash?

#mathishard

P.S. Online calculator says stopping distance from 200mph is 2,000 ft (600m).
P.P.S. same calculator suggests 129 mph is the max speed for a 250m stopping distance (the max rge of the fwd cameras)

Car Stopping Distance Calculator

www.random-science-tools.com

But I know I won't be letting my FSD drive me 130 mph while I'm napping on a public highway... although that does sound like a fair upper limit for boring tunnels in certain circumstances.

 

[dl003]

Companies can adapt very quickly when needed. F and GM will do just fine. Buyers want choice and they will be part of that choice. I am still long Tesla (Much less than I was at the beginning of the year) but to expect most major car manufactures to go away is foolish.

The same logics leading me to believe TSLA will dominate the EV market is also telling me F and GM will go bust. Everything they do is the complete opposite of what TSLA does. Operating leverage becomes a dead weight around your neck when you're shrinking.

 

[Curt Renz]

Good summary of FOMC minutes.

In response, the yield on 10-yr treasuries popped up dramatically. That can negatively effect the discounted valuations of high growth stocks on the Nasdaq like TSLA.

 

[mltv]

Even if that McLaren was being driven conservatively, once they make the last 90 degree left turn onto the straight away, I guarantee that car is floored. Even the most timid of drivers will floor it once straight and on the long straight away, even if that’s the only place they dare hammer it on the whole course. That said, it is precisely during the straight away that the Plaid exhibits total domination. The other cars look like Civics in comparison and I strongly suspect they are floored. To be totally fair, Pobst might take that last corner faster and have a better exit speed, but STILL.

I expect the Roadster 2 with SpaceX package has the cheat code for the turns too. Can't wait to see that happen

 

[henchman24]

While I believe CT interest is through the roof, I do think that Tesla’s CT reservation numbers are likely skewed. I’ve read multiple times about how many reservations single buyers have. I personally have 4, but will only maybe buy 1. Others are worse offenders. And, while I have never previously been a truck buyer, I am a Tesla buyer…

I don't put a whole lot of stock into the reservation number personally. I put more stock into interest numbers. We know the million plus that is out there is unlikely to be the case, but we've seen with the 3 and the Y that the reservation number doesn't really matter. It is more about the interest level and people buying them when they are available. Interest levels that are on par with the the top name in a segment is a good sign and a signal there is legitimate interest out there. That is even before there is any real hype with them on the roads, final specs, and people seeing them. All is looking positive for the hype to build more when this time comes around next year.

 

[wipster]

Yeah, I didn't reply to this question since, if the car stops as hard as it accelerates (doubtful), then it needs 2 sec to go from 60-0 mph. That leaves just 0.8 sec to go from 200-60 mph in this increasing dubious scenario... anybody wanna calculate the G's in that smash?

#mathishard

P.S. Online calculator says stopping distance from 200mph is 2,000 ft (600m).
P.P.S. same calculator suggests 129 mph is the max speed for a 250m stopping distance (the max rge of the fwd cameras)

Car Stopping Distance Calculator

www.random-science-tools.com

But I know I won't be letting my FSD drive me 130 mph while I'm napping on a public highway... although that does sound like a fair upper limit for boring tunnels in certain circumstances.

You mean about as quick as the SP just dropped?

 

[Zero CO2]

Companies can adapt very quickly when needed. F and GM will do just fine. Buyers want choice and they will be part of that choice. I am still long Tesla (Much less than I was at the beginning of the year) but to expect most major car manufactures to go away is foolish.

I hope you are joking here ... but if you are serious ....I think you underestimate the innovators dilemma(see Clayton Christensen) that the OEMs find themselves in ... some may survive ... but will likely be marginally profitable ... you are underestimating the mountain range in front of them ... i sold all my F stock a couple years back once this was clear to me... when the smoke clears it will be Tesla , some low cost manufactures from China and maybe one or two OEMs who purchase a pure play EV startup(hard to say which OEMs will survive....as they will actually have to execute the transition from ICE to BEV, and develop full autonomy) not just make announcements about new EVs

 

[Singuy]

In response, the yield on 10-yr treasuries popped up dramatically. That can negatively effect the discounted valuations of high growth stocks on the Nasdaq like TSLA.

Priced in. We have been talking about inflation for 3 months.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Shocking to see MM's not only able to keep us pegged to $600, but apparently have absolutely no need or concern to cover any naked short positions as we head into the 2Q data cycle.

Maybe this run down from $750 to $500 was more "natural" than we thought? No chance if you ask me, but maybe the reopening "rotation play" is just that strong.

Look out for TSLA when the WTI bubble bursts! It's already at insanity levels IMO.