Maybe. Traction becomes less of a limitation once you get a little speed. A lighter vehicle with the same power could very well be faster because of that.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, with Tesla tech its always speculation. I have a whole folder of links going back to Sep 2019 on CATL's bty project for Tesla. Part of the problem is that the reporters writing the stories literally don't know **** from ******* when it comes to chemistry, physics, engineering, finance, objective truth, ethics...
This may be the closest we're likely to get until somebody does a teardown. Maybe a crashed Euro-spec version will pop up. There was a 2020 conference call where the CATL CEO provided more info. I'll try and find you a link. For now, this is probably the closest I have (again, w/o being definative)
Why Tesla Is So Interested In 'Cell-To-Pack' Batteries | Jalopnik (May 14, 2020)
"The new batteries Tesla has been talking about have been developed jointly with CATL, and are expected to employ the cell-to-pack designs, which should be a key part in getting the cost of the battery packs down."
Again, no discussion of the engineering involved, but if true this comment implies that CATL must be providing the whole pack to Tesla in assembled form, and that Tesla receives a drop-in ready product.
My overall impression after reading probably dozens of articles over 2 years is that CATL did the development work, and Tesla provided the specification and engineering advice (so CATL could produce a drop-in pack for use with the existing MiC Model 3).
Cheers!
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I certainly hope that Tesla can figure out how to keep profit to a minimum, using that foregone profit to build the business instead.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
So dramatic. Isn’t this forum where we discuss opinions, observations and such? If something surprises you, is the only solution to sell your shares and go away? I brought up my observation and concern because:
- SC prices were higher than I remembered and approaching gasoline
- I actually believe these prices are approximately covering costs of equipment, installation and energy, but wonder how they can promise $0.07 for semis when those chargers will be big, expensive and likely faster
- Trying to understand the economics of the SC portion of the business model
50 sites have opened since the beginning of May in NA. Over 1 per day, and that is by far their fastest rate yet.
Looks like tech stocks are cool again. Lots of green in ARKK, ARKG, MSFT, AAPL, etc
Unless Cruise and GM are completely delusional,I no longer believe Tesla Robotaxi will be as lucrative.
The Origin would definitely be a preferable ride to a Model 3. Much easier entry/exit, tons of legroom, sitting up high…. In fact if they converted the interior to 4 separate compartments with nice touchscreen, workstation, recliner…, it would make a great commuter vehicle.
The stunning part is their claim of half the cost of a current EV SUV, when they hit scale. Maybe $35k? With 1M mile life that’s less than $0.05 / passenger mile! That does not leave a lot of room, for Tesla to beat them.
If they have enough miles, then even the cost of mapping and map maintenance may amortize down to a low cost per mile.
I guess removing airbags, wheel, pedals… saves enough money to pay for the 40 sensors?
Tesla needs a dedicated purpose built Robotaxi. I am sure Tesla can win on efficiency eking out another few cents / mile advantage.
On the good side from a Tesla investor perspective, they’re only claiming a few thousand San Francisco miles between accidents (or human interventions where it might have wrecked?), so they have a long way to go to get to the safety needed. We really don’t know how close Tesla is at this point.
Also they’re projecting a price only $5k annually below Uber in San Fran.
Main questions:
1. Is GM delusional at hitting a cost of $35k, and how long to hit scale?
2. How long for them to hit safety/nuisance intervention targets compared to Tesla?
3. Will Tesla provide a very nice pure Robotaxi soon. Of course I do not believe scale would be the problem for Tesla.
4. Maybe it’s OK to have competition, as if they hit cheap enough, there will be a very large demand.
5. Does their price assume you have to share the vehicle. In which case, it’s a pretty high price.
The Origin would definitely be a preferable ride to a Model 3. Much easier entry/exit, tons of legroom, sitting up high…. In fact if they converted the interior to 4 separate compartments with nice touchscreen, workstation, recliner…, it would make a great commuter vehicle.
The stunning part is their claim of half the cost of a current EV SUV, when they hit scale. Maybe $35k? With 1M mile life that’s less than $0.05 / passenger mile! That does not leave a lot of room, for Tesla to beat them.
If they have enough miles, then even the cost of mapping and map maintenance may amortize down to a low cost per mile.
I guess removing airbags, wheel, pedals… saves enough money to pay for the 40 sensors?
Tesla needs a dedicated purpose built Robotaxi. I am sure Tesla can win on efficiency eking out another few cents / mile advantage.
On the good side from a Tesla investor perspective, they’re only claiming a few thousand San Francisco miles between accidents (or human interventions where it might have wrecked?), so they have a long way to go to get to the safety needed. We really don’t know how close Tesla is at this point.
Also they’re projecting a price only $5k annually below Uber in San Fran.
Main questions:
1. Is GM delusional at hitting a cost of $35k, and how long to hit scale?
2. How long for them to hit safety/nuisance intervention targets compared to Tesla?
3. Will Tesla provide a very nice pure Robotaxi soon. Of course I do not believe scale would be the problem for Tesla.
4. Maybe it’s OK to have competition, as if they hit cheap enough, there will be a very large demand.
5. Does their price assume you have to share the vehicle. In which case, it’s a pretty high price.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Amusingly, the very video you link bases some of its conclusions on the idea you can't accelerate quicker than you can brake- a notion the magazines testing appears to debunk.
(though they're very very close)
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Last week I mentioned how the front under-fairing of my P Model 3 had become damaged last winter by running it over snow plow debris at the end of my driveway and/or travelling primitive mountain roads with limited ground clearance. It was finally ripped mostly off from aerodynamic forces at 145 mph in a flapping mess. I assumed with parts and labor this would cost significant money to repair.
On Monday I checked my local Service Center for available appointments and saw they had a whole bunch of open service slots starting Wednesday mid-day. With the volume of cars Tesla has been selling in Washington, I take this as an indicator of the reliability of these cars. I didn't know if they had the necessary under-fairing component but decided to make an appointment for yesterday and see what would happen. Sure enough, they confirmed my appointment for Wednesday mid-day!
I can tell you I had a very pleasant service experience. Even after owning two Tesla for 3 years we have very limited experience with Service Centers and I was a little apprehensive having read forum stories about huge wait times, high prices and out of stock parts, shipping lead times, etc. But the Service Center exuded a vibe of happiness with various employees buzzing about, I was greeted and checked in in a most pleasant manner. I was told this kind of repair shouldn't take long and decided to wait. I was pleased to discover they had a simple but pleasant waiting area with plenty of natural light and a water dispenser.
After a while an employee found me in the waiting area and used his tablet to bring up a photo of the underside of my car and explained the fairing mount had been bent from impact but they could install the new fairing and they could replace the bent part at a later date if I liked. After I indicated I understood he added that he probably wouldn't bother replacing it.
The big surprise is when they sent me on my way an hour and a half after arrival, with new fairing parts installed and a bill of $0.00! Because the damage was obviously caused by impact, I was really surprised there were no charges for parts and labor. They also replaced a trunk liner clip that mobile service must have broken when they replaced my water damaged trunk button in my carport a few months ago. At a traditional dealership there is no way this would be considered a goodwill repair but this guy acted like he was really pleased to be able to provide such service at no charge and to spread goodwill in the world. A night and day difference from a dealership experience!
I shared this experience because it is one more example of how the negative Tesla stories and my actual first-hand experiences are like two completely different movies! The best part was I met a nice gentleman my age named Lorne in the waiting area who was preparing to take delivery of his first Tesla ever, a black Dual Motor Model 3. He had a two and a half hour drive ahead of him as he had to drive into lower B.C. to get to his home in Point Roberts, WA, a small community of barely 1000 residents, so I was able to give him a few new owner tips and the pleasant conversation caused the time to fly by far too quickly. He wasn't well versed in all things Tesla, of course, but he did comment that he liked "the way Tesla did business" and he referred to all the car lots filled with unsold cars at traditional dealerships and how inefficient that business model seemed. He had learned that Tesla were good cars because there are a couple of Tesla owners in Pt. Roberts that had educated him.
The delivery specialist came by to tell Lorne his new car was ready and she enthusiastically and genuinely commented that she loved to see Tesla owners talking with one another! She's right, in the Ford Service waiting area I typically observe everyone, myself included, meekly keeping to themselves as they quietly worry about how much the "damage" will be! I let Lorne know I thought he was in for a treat and to enjoy his trip home in his new ride!
On Monday I checked my local Service Center for available appointments and saw they had a whole bunch of open service slots starting Wednesday mid-day. With the volume of cars Tesla has been selling in Washington, I take this as an indicator of the reliability of these cars. I didn't know if they had the necessary under-fairing component but decided to make an appointment for yesterday and see what would happen. Sure enough, they confirmed my appointment for Wednesday mid-day!
I can tell you I had a very pleasant service experience. Even after owning two Tesla for 3 years we have very limited experience with Service Centers and I was a little apprehensive having read forum stories about huge wait times, high prices and out of stock parts, shipping lead times, etc. But the Service Center exuded a vibe of happiness with various employees buzzing about, I was greeted and checked in in a most pleasant manner. I was told this kind of repair shouldn't take long and decided to wait. I was pleased to discover they had a simple but pleasant waiting area with plenty of natural light and a water dispenser.
After a while an employee found me in the waiting area and used his tablet to bring up a photo of the underside of my car and explained the fairing mount had been bent from impact but they could install the new fairing and they could replace the bent part at a later date if I liked. After I indicated I understood he added that he probably wouldn't bother replacing it.
The big surprise is when they sent me on my way an hour and a half after arrival, with new fairing parts installed and a bill of $0.00! Because the damage was obviously caused by impact, I was really surprised there were no charges for parts and labor. They also replaced a trunk liner clip that mobile service must have broken when they replaced my water damaged trunk button in my carport a few months ago. At a traditional dealership there is no way this would be considered a goodwill repair but this guy acted like he was really pleased to be able to provide such service at no charge and to spread goodwill in the world. A night and day difference from a dealership experience!
I shared this experience because it is one more example of how the negative Tesla stories and my actual first-hand experiences are like two completely different movies! The best part was I met a nice gentleman my age named Lorne in the waiting area who was preparing to take delivery of his first Tesla ever, a black Dual Motor Model 3. He had a two and a half hour drive ahead of him as he had to drive into lower B.C. to get to his home in Point Roberts, WA, a small community of barely 1000 residents, so I was able to give him a few new owner tips and the pleasant conversation caused the time to fly by far too quickly. He wasn't well versed in all things Tesla, of course, but he did comment that he liked "the way Tesla did business" and he referred to all the car lots filled with unsold cars at traditional dealerships and how inefficient that business model seemed. He had learned that Tesla were good cars because there are a couple of Tesla owners in Pt. Roberts that had educated him.
The delivery specialist came by to tell Lorne his new car was ready and she enthusiastically and genuinely commented that she loved to see Tesla owners talking with one another! She's right, in the Ford Service waiting area I typically observe everyone, myself included, meekly keeping to themselves as they quietly worry about how much the "damage" will be! I let Lorne know I thought he was in for a treat and to enjoy his trip home in his new ride!
Perhaps to be a little more helpful. The cheapest installed cost of solar is just slightly over USD1c per KWh in Portugal, which at it's southern most point is similar in latitude to San Francisco. That rate leaves plenty of room for additional CapEx to be amortised over 20 years and keep the 7c figure intact.
Also, we don't know what the exact deal is from Tesla. Is it 7c fully installed or does the truck company need to pay up front for certain items of the equipment and then the energy supplied is 7c?
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Whenever a company says they can build a vehicle like that for $35k, they have not done their research or it is a pipe dream. That pod probably has $30k in just SENSORS ALONE right now. It will still be profitable though even at $100k per vehicle, if they get true fully autonomous self driving working.
jeewee3000
Active Member
Thanks for sharing. The only way this story could be improved is if you were to end it with "Lorne also joined TMC under username @[...], welcome Lorne!".
Agree. And to add to this point, over the 2013-19 period Tesla was mostly growing in series - it was reliant on new production lines or models at Fremont, otherwise there was no change in sales. Now it is growing in parallel, seemingly every quarter there is substantial growth, with the last 6 months being supported by Shanghai Y growth and the next 6 months with restarting Model S and Berlin/Austin starting to come online. Next year will be the Berlin/Austin growth story plus Semi plus anything not yet announced.
Short answer - there is too much going on now for Tesla to be held down for a multi year period. Maybe it will trade flat for another 3-12 months, but I can't see it staying down beyond that barring very poor execution or some sort of financial crisis.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
TSLA is having a good day for a change, very nice!
Yes indeed, we just hit a new intraday high:
This just goes to show that, regardless of the SP that the MMs prefer, when the big whales want to accummulate, the SP goes up (even on a low volume day like today).
It's also good to remember that MMs love to use their place of priviledge in the late After-hrs session and early Pre-market trading to recoup their losses from the previous day. If the macros are bad, their manipulatation after-hrs hold throughout the day.
The market and SP is being reset in their favor each day. This is also a problem. It's like the Umpire is betting on the outcome of the game.
Cheers!
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insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Subsidized by the purchase price? $180K for a vehicle with 900 to 1,000 kWh of battery? In the “old days” Tesla charged $100K for the 100D, or $1,000/kWh. The semi, at $180 to $200 /kWh, is 5x cheaper per kWh…
I agree that looking at permits isn't the best way of measuring expansion, as those are not always predictive of stations opening. So let's look at stations actually opening.
On 18 March 2021 there were 986 supercharger locations in the US, with 8874 superchargers.
In the three months since then another 84 locations have opened, with a total of 863 charging stalls (most of them 250 kW). An unknown number of chargers were added to existing locations. But calculating with just the new stations you are looking at an expansion of nearly 39% on a yearly basis. The number of Teslas on the road in the US will grow about 38% this year (assuming sales of 300,000 cars in 2021 versus a total of 775.000 on the road - Tesla sold 235,000 cars in the US in 2020).
Conclusion: the supercharger growth is not just keeping up with but actually outpacing the growth of the number of cars. This does not even take into account that the average charging speed is increasing, which means stalls are occupied for shorter periods of time.
JusRelax
Active Member
TSLA is having a good day for a change, very nice!
I may get some disagrees for this, but I don't agree that TSLA's performance today marks it as a good day. TSLA is by far underperforming other EV stocks:
I didn't include it, but NKLA is also up about 7% as well.
sentabo
Member
Also very nice to see a post that is related to the subject matter. Not sure what happened to this thread. I have it bookmarked to stop by occasionally and read about TSLA and investing, but the thread has taken quite the detour of late. Go TSLA!TSLA is having a good day for a change, very nice!
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