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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

OrthoSurg

Member
Jun 2, 2017
868
5,847
Montreal
Perfect, in all aspects.
like the stock price movement today.
 

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PeterJA

Member
Sep 26, 2013
981
9,514
San Diego
I agree Tesla will do it better and cheaper, but I was over-optimistic before.

Before, I thought Cruise would have a $90k vehicle. Before I thought Cruise would have a 250k mile life. Before I thought map creation and map maintenance would be large cost factors.

so my thinking has evolved from Tesla having a $0.50 / mile cost advantage to maybe only a $0.20 / mile advantage. Still huge. Just not as great as I thought before.

This may be something everyone already knew, but it was a new revelation for me.

To be clear, I doubt Cruise/GM’s ability to deliver, but if they do, it reduces Tesla’s advantage from what I personally thought it would be.

Robotaxi service seems like a "winner takes most" market (Cathie Wood's phrase).

To compete with Tesla, Cruise must have enough robo-vehicles on the road to get to you quicker than a Tesla when you call one. How will Cruise manage that if Tesla has a big head-start, and Cruise can't make much money until they have built a comparable fleet?

Other things being equal, the lowest-cost service will win big. I doubt that Cruise has any design features or technology that Tesla can't match or exceed. More likely the converse is true, given Tesla's engineering prowess and rate of innovation.

I think your original optimism was not excessive. :)
 

MC3OZ

Active Member
Jul 25, 2019
2,284
12,773
QLD Australia
On Robotaxis, I'm fairly convinced that Tesla has good efficient solutions for every aspect except cleaning...
They may have a good solution for cleaning, but there is no reason why they would tell us about it now,.

In terms of fleet scheduling it has occurred to me the Tesla VPP software might be something close to an ideal software platform.

Each Robotaxi could report it's "ground truth" in terms of SOC (Battery level), locationion, availability, travel speed, traffic conditions, etc.
Smart AI scheduling software similar to "Autobidder" could allocate fares to Robotaxis in an efficient manner, and dispatch the optimal Robotaxi for the job...

New jobs come into the central dispatch via the app, the entire system is fully automated and very efficient, with minimal human oversight.
Like "Autobidder" the scheduler can do forward forecasting of demand based on past experience.

I've have long thought Tesla will have the lowest fleet cost, and hence the largest fleet, dispatching that fleet efficiently is an additional advantage.

Time is money, most customers want the first Robotaxi to arrive, provided that Robotaxi is clean and safe, It is a bonus if that car has great in car entertainment, sound system and HVAC.

Customers will soon get sick of geofenced solutions that can't go where they want to go, or slow service where the Robtaxi takes too long to arrive, or exceeds the original estimated arrival signicantly.

Cost wise, I'm also confident Tesla can match any competitors price..
 
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dhanson865

Active Member
Feb 16, 2013
4,596
7,185
Knoxville, Tennessee
I was looking at the pricing of a supercharger near me on my map and was SHOCKED to see that during 10am to 7pm it was $0.42/kWh! That’s really getting up there. I was surprised that it’s as close as it is to gas prices. And yet Tesla promised semi buyers they would guarantee a price of 7¢/kWh? Hmmm.

To avoid the back and forth on my “close as at it is to gas prices” comment, here’s my math:
  • Tesla LR M3, at 80 MPH gets around 250 miles per 75 kWh tank. 75 x $0.42 = $31.50. $31.50 / 250 miles = $0.126/mi
  • ICE, at 80 MPH gets around 450 miles per 18 gal tank. 18 x $4.00 = $72.00. $72.00 / 450 miles = $0.16/mi
  • Almost 80% of the price of gas….
Anyone else concerned about that guaranteed semi rate?
No, I'm not concerned. Tesla should be able to beat the average commercial rate and still sell electricity at a profit to the semi customers.

LCOE-bar-Chart-2030-Goals-2017%24.png

Solar-Costs-Are-Decades-Ahead-of-Forecasts-2010-2020-Actual-vs-Forecasts-to-2050-2-800x471-600x353.jpg
 

MXWing

Well-Known Member
Oct 13, 2016
7,438
19,375
USA
It would eat all my covered calls but another 20 percent daily run up out of nowhere would be fantastic.

Happened less than two months ago. Anyone recollect why?
 
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Jackl1956

Active Member
May 11, 2013
1,883
13,401
Los Angeles
FUD is directly proportional to Tesla‘s success.


Yes, I believe Tesla should informationally advertise.
 

StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
9,374
72,956
Maple Falls, WA
FUD is directly proportional to Tesla‘s success.


Yes, I believe Tesla should informationally advertise.

Interesting FUD article. Does anyone else think the math looks a little funny here?

The spreadsheet also notes NHTSA has opened six other investigations into six other crashes involving driver assistance systems, including two involving Cadillac vehicles in which there were no reported injuries.

The other four include two involved a 2012 Lexus RX450H and 2017 Navya Arma in which there were no reported injuries.

The remaining two involved 2017 Volvo XC90 vehicles, including an Uber Technologies self-driving test vehicle that struck and killed a woman in Arizona in 2018.

2 + 4 + 2 = 6

Hmmm...OK.
 

CorneliusXX

Active Member
Jun 19, 2015
2,233
18,224
London
Elon responded to Cathie directly and said "winner takes a quarter.....manufacturing is hard."
That will depend on how fast the 2nd and 3rd players reach autonomy. If Tesla has a 2 year lead in autonomy then maybe they get a quarter but if Tesla has an 8 year lead I'd expect them to get more than a quarter.

While no other manufacturers are recording data at Tesla's level I don't know how there could be many fast followers.
 

hobbes

Active Member
Feb 11, 2013
2,681
14,005
Germany
I'm not sure they read their own article before making that headline.

In the article:


...nothing about stopping building fossil cars.

Only that they would stop introducing them. As in launching new models.

My interpretation is that they can still build fossil car models introduced in 2025 several years later.

Trying to read the German source I come to the same conclusion. Audi will stop launcing new fossil fuel models by 2026. And a few years later they will only launch EVs.

Perhaps @avoigt is a better interpreter of German language than I am and could clarify?

Source: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/audi-verbrenner-elektromobilitaet-1.5325505?reduced=true
You´re right. The subitle reads:
Von 2026 an will die VW-Tochter keine neuen Verbrenner mehr herausbringen - als erster Hersteller in Deutschland. Ein paar Jahre später soll es dann nur noch E-Autos geben.
Starting in 2026 the VW subsidiary won´t launch new ICE cars any more - as first manufacturer in Germany. A few years later there will only be electric cars.
(Translation mine)

Unfortunately I can´t read the rest of the article as it is behind a paywall, but this is quite clear.
 

hobbes

Active Member
Feb 11, 2013
2,681
14,005
Germany
Here's the site plan that Tobias Lindh posted with my English translation courtesy of Google Translate:

View attachment 674618
Almost perfect job by google, few remarks:
  • Fertigung translates to manufacturing, so Fertigung Batteriepack is Battery Pack Manufacturing
  • Sickerbecken translates to infiltration basin
  • Löschwasserrückhaltebecken is specifically a firefighting water retention basin
 

Wicket

Member
May 29, 2021
121
742
Planet Zero
Maybe Elon the 2nd refers to having to pass Berlin yet again through approval, or to the model y that launches there being the 2nd major revision.

Separately given how much is hanging on 4680 for early output at Austin and Berlin I really wish I had a good sense of progress at Kato because knowing Elon he tends to cover up problems while reiterating the same deadlines.
 
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MartinAustin

Active Member
Jul 21, 2013
2,745
11,786
Austin, Texas USA
Tesla cut the battery size of the Model S from 104 to 100 kWh

This must surely back up the notion that the car continues to use 18650, and hasn't graduated up to something newer.

(Yes there have been some pretty authoritative statements on the matter already)

It amazes me to think about the improvements that loom on the horizon for Model S/X - when its performance is now so incredible:

* front casting piece
* rear casting piece
* switch to 4680 cells
* structured pack

These improvements will all allow Tesla to "dial in" the exact performance improvements they want - acceleration, range, and profitability. Tesla might upgrade the range of the car a bit more, keep the acceleration the same, but make the car lighter, for better handling+range again, and a cheaper cost of construction. Will we see a reduction in retail price or just take more profit per vehicle? It's Tesla's choice... and possible they will add FSD as standard and keep the base price of the car the same at $79,900.

(While I'm here... it's my opinion that FSD will become standard on all Tesla vehicles at some point)
 

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
9,249
118,123
Canada
I think we will eventually see 4680 LFP cells, either made by Tesla or a supplier.

This info is from a well-known source on twitter (Jun 04), but relevant:

Kelvin Yang on Twitter: "Rumor: new CATL Shanghai factory to use roadrunner production system for 4680, fully automated." / Twitter

Futher upthread, the OP discusses the new planned CATL bty plant in Shanghai as the likely source for Model 2 batteries.

I agree. I expect ~2 yrs to production. Doing site-prep right now on the land immediately South of Giga Shanghai, then a year for construction. I also expect the plant to include a cathode production facility, and localized production for any other essential components for the bty pack.

Oh, did I mention 2M Models 2 per year production rate? Yeah, 4 phases of 500K each (20GWh/phase, 4 bty lines). Up and running at full capacity in 3-4 yrs (depends if they build factories in parallel, or all at once). But, China... :D

Cheers!
 
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15Peter20

Member
Oct 26, 2020
462
2,477
Norfolk
This must surely back up the notion that the car continues to use 18650, and hasn't graduated up to something newer.

(Yes there have been some pretty authoritative statements on the matter already)

It amazes me to think about the improvements that loom on the horizon for Model S/X - when its performance is now so incredible:

* front casting piece
* rear casting piece
* switch to 4680 cells
* structured pack

These improvements will all allow Tesla to "dial in" the exact performance improvements they want - acceleration, range, and profitability. Tesla might upgrade the range of the car a bit more, keep the acceleration the same, but make the car lighter, for better handling+range again, and a cheaper cost of construction. Will we see a reduction in retail price or just take more profit per vehicle? It's Tesla's choice... and possible they will add FSD as standard and keep the base price of the car the same at $79,900.

(While I'm here... it's my opinion that FSD will become standard on all Tesla vehicles at some point)
Agree. FSD may, in fact should, become mandatory, at least in some jurisdictions, once it has proven itself.
 

Buckminster

Active Member
Aug 29, 2018
3,234
16,321
UK
Agree. FSD may, in fact should, become mandatory, at least in some jurisdictions, once it has proven itself.
This all assumes that Tesla will be selling vehicles. That would be a financial mistake, a safety mistake and a climate control mistake.

Having said that Elon may not want to turn Tesla into a monopoly.
 
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CorneliusXX

Active Member
Jun 19, 2015
2,233
18,224
London
Here's the google translation of the cell manufacturing details from the Berlin development application.

A couple of interesting points:
  • The substrate (reads like it's the adhesive in the DBE process) is delivered in containers. @gabeincal maybe something to look out for at Kato Rd.
  • The Formation process takes 10 days - which is longer than I knew (edit: The Limiting Factor said 10 days is quite short but not much info available in a reply to the below tweet). Batches of cells presumably take a couple of weeks from start to finish before they can go into the battery pack and some more time before the pack goes into the vehicle. So possibly 3-4 weeks of wip to be accounted for as the business scales up Tesla made batteries.

 
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