Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

Could this kind of analysis be kept on its own forum? Not trying to be rude, but if models like this get talked about a lot, following the specific discussion can be difficult.

I don't want to live in a world where talking about financials is banned from the "investment" thread.

 

[ZeApelido]

Yes - if there is significant Bitcoin price move down from here, I would update this thread but I'll keep minor updates in the dedicated thread so that comments back and forth don't clutter this forum.

I mean, look at @The Accountant 's Reaction Score / post ratio. It's like 30X!!!

I mean it's basically the best signal / noise ratio out of anyone. And we are complaining that his/her posts are too noisy?

Inconceivable!

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - hour ago: Tesla is launching ‘Tesla Energy’ in China, including Powerwall and solar

Excerpt:

Tesla announced that it is launching “Tesla Energy,” its energy division in China, starting with the Powerwall home battery pack.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Barron's - 22 minutes ago: Tesla and GM Make Out Well in Piper’s 2040 EV Predictions. NIO Is a Bust.

Excerpt:

Potter is predicting the EV takeover of the global automotive industry will be complete in 19 years.

At the top of the market share list sits Volkswagen (ticker: VOW.Germany), not Tesla (TSLA). Potter predicts Volkswagen will sell about 9.2 million EVs in 2040, or 11.4% of the global total.

Tesla investors shouldn’t fret. Potter is a Tesla bull and rates shares Buy. His price target is $1,200 a share, valuing company stock at more than $1 trillion. He predicts Tesla will have a 10.1% market share by 2040, selling about 8.2 million vehicles a year. Tesla sold 500,000 vehicles in 2020.

Yeah, Tesla will sell 8.5 million vehicles in 2027 @ 50% CAGR. Tesla passes that just with Model 2.

Projecting just 8.1M sales in 2040 is a 15.8% CAGR (10-yr avg growth for NASDAQ is 14.39%)

Potter is innumerate, AND lazy.

 

[InTheShadows]

You say you "could care less about crypto" which means you do care about it.

And it directly impacts the answer to your question. If BTC tanks that will be a drag on the GAAP profits and require more cars to be delivered to be break-even.

The crypto goes to the P&L? I thought it was a held asset which effects the Balance Sheet not the P&L.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Another gem from Barron’s professional journalists in their daily “Tesla‘s Bitcoinageddon” story:

The latest fall in Bitcoin has sent the price past a threshold that likely would force Tesla to recognize a loss on its holdings if the cryptocurrency doesn't rebound by the end of the month​

[...]​

If Bitcoin is still trading at $29,500 at the end of June, when Tesla wraps up its second quarter, the company would be sitting on a loss of almost $90 million.​

This was after paragraphs of how BTC accounting is different from other assets, and they still got it exactly wrong.

They need an @The Accountant (who can post on the walls of the bathroom stalls in the Vince Lombardi rest stop on the Jersey Turnpike for all I care, and I’ll still go there to read his projections, though this forum would be more convenient for me).

 

[InTheShadows]

Hmm, since I did not mention you in my comment, perhaps you think your reply which asked an unrelated question was deemed off-topic? I do not think it was, it's a very reasonable question, and indeed is ON topic for this forum.

Thank-you.

Cheers!

My bad. Since you replied to my comment, I assumed your reply was directed at me.

 

[Tslynk67]

I believe you. Anyone who would choose your profession on purpose clearly has no life outside of the job, therefore must be committed to excellence of accuracy. Plus, loved your movie. Bad caramel corn all day long, every day. Keep up the good work, and diagrams and pictures.

Obviously the accounting is just a stepping-stone to something more exciting!

 

[Knightshade]

Electrek - hour ago: Tesla is launching ‘Tesla Energy’ in China, including Powerwall and solar

Excerpt:

Tesla announced that it is launching “Tesla Energy,” its energy division in China, starting with the Powerwall home battery pack.

Kinda torn on this.

On the one hand it's great they're expanding energy to new markets.

OTOH they're already desperately cell-starved and unable to meet demand in CURRENT markets, and given the auto demand I've not seen much indication this is improving anytime soon... (indeed the change a few months back to REDUCE who could order powerwalls suggests it's getting worse)

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Yes - if there is significant Bitcoin price move down from here, I would update this thread but I'll keep minor updates in the dedicated thread so that comments back and forth don't clutter this forum.

@The Accountant

Please ignore any request to limit your posting on Tesla's financial performance to the quarterly projections thread. I'm glad that your valuable insights have recently started seeping into the general thread. And I'm sure many agree. What could be more on topic than Tesla's finances?! This weekend your post was actually one of the few with substance in a sea of off topic blathering. The value of this thread could definitely use the boost you are providing, so please don't be deterred from posting here.

Something else: what has been bugging me for a while now are all those posts starting with 'I know this is OT, but...'. Followed by something completely unrelated to Tesla, EVs or investing. No, no, no. If you already know it's OT, simply don't post it. The signal to noise ratio needs to improve. A lot.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Explainer: What’s happening with Tesla’s $7 billion German ‘gigafactory’?

1. Bureaucracy has been a headache for Tesla
   • Tesla is working based on preliminary construction permits
     
     
   • Brandenburg's State Environmental Agency must provide final permit to open the plant
     
     
   • Every project that has obtained preliminary permits in Brandenburg eventually received the final 'OK'.
2. The Battery Cell Plant
   • Tesla’s construction plans had to be fully resubmitted earlier this month to reflect the addition of battery cell production to the site

Given Tesla's level of execution building Shanghai GF and now Berlin and Austin, it's surprising they would have missed including their plans to also build 4680 cells at Berlin. I think it would be more likely that given the challenges yet remaining to achieve the needed low rejection rate back during Battery Day, they believed waiting until Q1 or Q2 of 2022 was prudent. Isn't delaying final permit to open the plant by adding cell production facility approvals a really good sign that 4680 cell production line at Kato Rd. is now working well and can be mostly copied for Berlin and Austin?MY

At Battery Day Elon said "new battery tech" (4680) won't reach large-scale production until 2022. But wasn't very specific about how large that production would be. My guess is he meant large enough to cover MY, CT and Semi needs. His statement doesn't seem to rule out that 4680 production lines sufficient for Berlin and Austin MY production (during first half of 2022) won't be online by end of 2021.

 

[Singuy]

When The Accountant post, I read. End of story.

 

[Curt Renz]

InsideEVs - 11 minutes ago: Tesla Will Honor Lower Plaid Price For Plaid+ Order Holders

Excerpt:

We now have some confirmation that Tesla is actually honoring this request, just as Musk replied. It came in the form of a message from Phil Muller on the Tesla Owners Worldwide group.

 

[Curt Renz]

Comparing the electric Ford F-150 Lightning to the Tesla Cybertruck​

CNET - 4 hours ago:

 

[NicoV]

Yeah, Tesla will sell 8.5 million vehicles in 2027 @ 50% CAGR. Tesla passes that just with Model 2.

Projecting just 8.1M sales in 2040 is a 15.8% CAGR (10-yr avg growth for NASDAQ is 14.39%)

Potter is innumerate, AND lazy.

Well, Potter finds it clearly inconceivable that Tesla keeps growing at 50% per year, since that would mean Tesla will have 100% marketshare in 2040.
I wouldn’t mind 100% in 2040, but realistically some vendor should be successful in some niche.

 

[Nocturnal]

VW is struggling in China. That should make us feel better about reports of Tesla hitting some hurdles there. (mostly FUD/temporary sentiment but still)

Focus: Reality check for VW in China after sluggish start for electric car series

Volkswagen AG's (VOWG_p.DE) ID series - the backbone of its electric vehicle ambitions - is off to what even company sources call a worryingly slow start in China.

www.reuters.com

 

[Joe F]

Comparing the electric Ford F-150 Lightning to the Tesla Cybertruck​

CNET - 4 hours ago:

CNET. Assuming it was a mistake and not intentional, stated the Ford topped out at $90,474 loaded. The Tesla, a little higher at $69,900. New math I suppose.

 

[StealthP3D]

Comparing the electric Ford F-150 Lightning to the Tesla Cybertruck​

CNET - 4 hours ago:

I knew that was going to be a highly biased comparison from the second sentence about a "religious war".

Then he says the F-150 can range up to $90K or so for the top model, the Tesla, a little higher? And then puts the price of $69,900 on the screen. When is $69,900 "a little higher than over $90K?

 

[JustMe]

I knew that was going to be a highly biased comparison from the second sentence about a "religious war".

Then he says the F-150 can range up to $90K or so for the top model, the Tesla, a little higher? And then puts the price of $69,900 on the screen. When is $69,900 "a little higher than over $90K?

90k only has one nine
69.9k has two nines

btw, could you give me two tens for a five?

 

[MP3Mike]

Given Tesla's level of execution building Shanghai GF and now Berlin and Austin, it's surprising they would have missed including their plans to also build 4680 cells at Berlin.

I think the permits required too much specific details on the equipment/processes that they didn't have finalized when they submitted the initial permit request. So they didn't miss it, they just didn't include it because it wasn't ready yet.