Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GOVA]

@The Accountant

Please ignore any request to limit your posting on Tesla's financial performance to the quarterly projections thread. I'm glad that your valuable insights have recently started seeping into the general thread. And I'm sure many agree. What could be more on topic than Tesla's finances?! This weekend your post was actually one of the few with substance in a sea of off topic blathering. The value of this thread could definitely use the boost you are providing, so please don't be deterred from posting here.

Something else: what has been bugging me for a while now are all those posts starting with 'I know this is OT, but...'. Followed by something completely unrelated to Tesla, EVs or investing. No, no, no. If you already know it's OT, simply don't post it. The signal to noise ratio needs to improve. A lot.

Hey MODS, this is very uplifting post and I am really encouraged by this type of moderation.
Please consider this: How about creating something in this tone and invite back you know who so this thread might be even more beneficial to all of us. Just a thought.

Seems like these two waste themselves on Twitter and I am sure we'd be happy to have them back.

If not an option, no harm meant. Just delete, I guess.

Thanks.

 

[AperiodicCoder]

@The Accountant

Please ignore any request to limit your posting on Tesla's financial performance to the quarterly projections thread. I'm glad that your valuable insights have recently started seeping into the general thread. And I'm sure many agree.

The general consensus is that The Accountant's posts are of very high value!

Edit

To clarify what the above screenshot is: it's the top 4 posts from the last 3 days based on a sum of Like + Informative + Love + Helpful.

 

[CanadaEV]

I knew that was going to be a highly biased comparison from the second sentence about a "religious war".

Then he says the F-150 can range up to $90K or so for the top model, the Tesla, a little higher? And then puts the price of $69,900 on the screen. When is $69,900 "a little higher than over $90K?

It is truly weird to listen to the way he says that… “The Ford tops out at 90 grand, the Tesla…a little higher at about 70 grand.”
It’s like FUD is a mind altering drug. We always knew this, but it’s never been quite so perfectly expressed

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Hey MODS, this is very uplifting post and I am really encouraged by this type of moderation.
Please consider this: How about creating something in this tone and invite back you know who so this thread might be even more beneficial to all of us. Just a thought.

Seems like these two waste themselves on Twitter and I am sure we'd be happy to have them back.

If not an option, no harm meant. Just delete, I guess.

Thanks.

In the past I’ve approached both of them to ask if they would consider coming back to this thread, but unfortunately to no avail.

 

[AperiodicCoder]

I knew that was going to be a highly biased comparison from the second sentence about a "religious war".

Then he says the F-150 can range up to $90K or so for the top model, the Tesla, a little higher? And then puts the price of $69,900 on the screen. When is $69,900 "a little higher than over $90K?

What I'm guessing from the context here is that he's comparing the top-end price to the base price. So he's saying Cybertruck's top price is only a little higher than its base price (although that's an odd way to characterize a price that's almost double the base).

Other than that odd wording I think it's actually a nice high-level comparison video based on what we know so far.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

With the run that Tesla has had, some people have a hard time seeing a 5-10 bagger again.
Tweets like this should wake them up.

View attachment 675944

My money is on humanoid robots.

Tesla's core strengths are not AI in isolation, but products using AI.
What do humanoid robots need?

• Vision based AI
• Very good manufacturing making robust, high quality products in high volume.
• Batteries: cheap and good.
• Systems integration.

Who can do all of above?
Who would you buy a robot from? Goggle or Facebook - no seriously, with that privacy baggage? And no fabrication expertise?
Also: What is the most challenging task? Making a flying drone to deliver pizzas? Or a golf cart with limited autonomy for delivering packages?
No.
The biggest challenge is to develop a humanoid robot platform, for performing a wide range of tasks in everyday real life. Tesla robots.

 

[CorneliusXX]

My money is on humanoid robots.

Tesla's core strengths are not AI in isolation, but products using AI.
What do humanoid robots need?

• Vision based AI
• Very good manufacturing making robust, high quality products in high volume.
• Batteries: cheap and good.
• Systems integration.

Who can do all of above?
Who would you buy a robot from? Goggle or Facebook - no seriously, with that privacy baggage? And no fabrication expertise?
Also: What is the most challenging task? Making a flying drone to deliver pizzas? Or a golf cart with limited autonomy for delivering packages?
No.
The biggest challenge is to develop a humanoid robot platform, for performing a wide range of tasks in everyday real life. Tesla robots.

Agree - no company is better placed for this. Even Boston Dynamics who have been building for years don't have the autonomy chops of Tesla.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

My money is on humanoid robots.

Tesla's core strengths are not AI in isolation, but products using AI.
What do humanoid robots need?

• Vision based AI
• Very good manufacturing making robust, high quality products in high volume.
• Batteries: cheap and good.
• Systems integration.

Who can do all of above?
Who would you buy a robot from? Goggle or Facebook - no seriously, with that privacy baggage? And no fabrication expertise?
Also: What is the most challenging task? Making a flying drone to deliver pizzas? Or a golf cart with limited autonomy for delivering packages?
No.
The biggest challenge is to develop a humanoid robot platform, for performing a wide range of tasks in everyday real life. Tesla robots.

Tesla could deploy these to further the mission by having them walk over to gas stations. Every time someone reached for a nozzle, they would politely take it from them and put it back.

In the interests of compassion and kindness lasers shooting from their eyes would not happen until the second attempted offence.

 

[jerry33]

Tesla could deploy these to further the mission by having them walk over to gas stations. Every time someone reached for a nozzle, they would politely take it from them at put it back.

In the interests of compassion and kindness lasers shooting from their eyes would not happen until the second attempted offence.

Won't do any good. They would just use Nuralink to get their vision back.

 

[pz1975]

Comparing the electric Ford F-150 Lightning to the Tesla Cybertruck​

CNET - 4 hours ago:

Decent comparison overall but didn't once mention the charging network differences. That IMO is a huge differentiator between the two trucks. Also didn't mention charging speeds, but that's not as important as where you would charge the Light(e)ning on a road trip.

 

[Beltsbear]

Agree - no company is better placed for this. Even Boston Dynamics who have been building for years don't have the autonomy chops of Tesla.

I would disagree. But mostly because it’s apples to oranges. You can be certain that the AI Boston is using knows how to manipulate objects as well as navigate. Boston’s AI probably is not evolving to be 4D like Tesla though. So they are both building very different kinds of intelligence. A very modified version of Tesla’s net would be very useful (after huge amounts of training) For navigating spaces and unlike Boston, predicting where people are going to move.

Tesla robotics will be a big deal once the robots stop having 18” tires and go inside.

 

[AndyH]

Barron's - 22 minutes ago: Tesla and GM Make Out Well in Piper’s 2040 EV Predictions. NIO Is a Bust.

Excerpt:

Potter is predicting the EV takeover of the global automotive industry will be complete in 19 years.

At the top of the market share list sits Volkswagen (ticker: VOW.Germany), not Tesla (TSLA). Potter predicts Volkswagen will sell about 9.2 million EVs in 2040, or 11.4% of the global total.

Tesla investors shouldn’t fret. Potter is a Tesla bull and rates shares Buy. His price target is $1,200 a share, valuing company stock at more than $1 trillion. He predicts Tesla will have a 10.1% market share by 2040, selling about 8.2 million vehicles a year. Tesla sold 500,000 vehicles in 2020.

What if Tesla succeeds and hits a 50% CAGR for the next 10 years? Me thinks they will need to raise that target...

To be fair I remember Alex Potter mentioning somewhere that analysts have to be cautious when projecting growth. Tesla's biggest production increase was in 2018 with 145k additional cars and Tesla has had lower growth in 2019 and 2020. Analysts has to predict based on what a company has proven possible.

It's obvious to all here that Tesla won't have a problem increasing production with over a million cars per year. Tesla has already proven how quickly and frugally they can build factories with Giga Shanghai. Austin and Berlin will hopefully be further proof.

 

[ZeApelido]

My money is on humanoid robots.

Tesla's core strengths are not AI in isolation, but products using AI.
What do humanoid robots need?

• Vision based AI
• Very good manufacturing making robust, high quality products in high volume.
• Batteries: cheap and good.
• Systems integration.

Who can do all of above?
Who would you buy a robot from? Goggle or Facebook - no seriously, with that privacy baggage? And no fabrication expertise?
Also: What is the most challenging task? Making a flying drone to deliver pizzas? Or a golf cart with limited autonomy for delivering packages?
No.
The biggest challenge is to develop a humanoid robot platform, for performing a wide range of tasks in everyday real life. Tesla robots.

I agree with robots, but not humanoid robots. From a 1st principles perspective, they are needlessly complicated for basically most tasks.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Having watched Karpathys very interesting recent video, which will take me some time to absorb, but is bullish for sure, I have come to believe that maybe, just maybe I have discovered the reason why FSD/Tesla Vision is taking so long:
They are waiting for the robots to drive them to be built first!

Above is both a joke - and also true.
It illustrates the daunting difficulty of FSD/Tesla Vision. In order for it to succeed, it must be close to as good as a (meat) robot. And if is is ... why only use that amazing capabillity for just driving?
After all, driving is a mundane task compared to other vision based tasks requiring some kind of embodiment.

In conclusion: Tesla Vision is truly visionary! (cue hollow laugh)

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

I agree with robots, but not humanoid robots. From a 1st principles perspective, they are needlessly complicated for basically most tasks.

Fair.
But the humanoid form factor is also extremely rugged, generic and multi-purpose.
Why does Tesla have a handful of car models instead of 50+ ? For the same reason a humanoid form factor robot would be suffice instead of 100s of specialized units.

Also: Many and more corps can make drones and hoovers and mobile trays and all that. What is the challenge?
What is the difference that makes a difference?
Making a real-life, flexible, multi-purpose useful humanoid robot: That is an Elon'esque challenge.

 

[CHGolferJim]

What if Tesla succeeds and hits a 50% CAGR for the next 10 years? Me thinks they will need to raise that target...

To be fair I remember Alex Potter mentioning somewhere that analysts have to be cautious when projecting growth. Tesla's biggest production increase was in 2018 with 145k additional cars and Tesla has had lower growth in 2019 and 2020. Analysts has to predict based on what a company has proven possible.

It's obvious to all here that Tesla won't have a problem increasing production with over a million cars per year. Tesla has already proven how quickly and frugally they can build factories with Giga Shanghai. Austin and Berlin will hopefully be further proof.

Adding Austin and Berlin capacity ramp roughly on schedule with Shanghai's will dramatically improve outsider confidence in Tesla's ability to increase capacity and sales -- obvious to all here.

 

[EVMeister]

Irregardless

Can we ban that word, please?

 

[Unpilot]

Looks like the same sell off to end the day.....again.

 

[Papafox]

Could this kind of analysis be kept on its own forum? Not trying to be rude, but if models like this get talked about a lot, following the specific discussion can be difficult.

For instance, I want to read or ask your input on BTC, perhaps it has already been discussed. If your models had its own place here, it would easier to follow.

So, what are your models saying about BTC?

On a typical day in this forum, I wade through endless discussions about the topic of the day, really looking for information that will affect Q2 stock price. Posts by @The Accountant are very often the most useful of all, and in this case he was responding to a question asked on this thread. He's been using good discipline posting much info in the other thread, but I do so hope that posts by @The Accountant such as this continue in this thread. Otherwise, the process of finding pertinent info that will affect the stock price becomes spread over too many threads and the workload of staying up to date becomes too time consuming.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Tesla's Losses on Bitcoin Mount as Price Dips Below $30,000

The latest fall in Bitcoin has sent the price past a threshold that likely would force Tesla to recognize a loss on its holdings if the cryptocurrency doesn't rebound by the end of the month. That would raise more concerns about earnings quality at the electric-vehicle company..

The drop is a problem for Tesla because accounting regulators consider Bitcoin a collectible, so investments in the currency are held at cost. Gains are only recorded when Bitcoin is sold, but companies have to recognize losses when the currency falls below its carrying value.