Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tim S]

View attachment 677231

No new EV rebates in current deal structure. "Dems in Congress still plan to seek funding for EV rebates in other legislation this year." Biden in speech just now made clear environment/EVs is big part of his agenda moving forward.

EV credit will be part of the bill that will go through reconciliation, with zero Republican votes.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Very well stated, essentially the opposite of what a TSLA follower would consider logical moves. Volume is super-low(obv not today) relative to normal trading and MM's can move SP easily, so they'll likely move it to their own internal max pain. It costs nothing to naked short if you don't get caught with your pants down. Then they simply cover prior to any obvious potential takeoff events like 2Q P&D.

In a vacuum this almost sounds like the description of proper market making, they're just making way too much other money off this.

Let me know when this line of thinking becomes public consensus and we can assume they'll flip strategy.

Meanwhile, this is like sailing: Catching some wind they leave for us. But ya gotta watch the water ahead too. That's the leading indicator and the games they play in trying to scare the weak.

 

[thx1139]

Come on baby hold above 680

 

[Bobbyducati]

anyone else's option bid/ask flipped? i cant close any options due to this.

 

[dm28997]

To me it seems obvious that the market is reacting today to Elon’s tweet of Starlink IPO and that Tesla share holders may get preferential treatment… Brilliant tweet, will lead to new investors in TSLA

In addition it's only for long term shareholders of TSLA to get this benefit. A brilliant plan. BTW our Starlink is running so fast we can now watch 4k videos. Last speed was around 265 Mbps download, 18.2 Mbps upload which is great for beta.

 

[bballshinobi]

No EV rebates in the infrastructure deal, but I guess at least they didn't add the EV surcharge (totally makes sense if you want to speed up EV adoption lol).

Bipartisan $973B infrastructure proposal alarms EV advocates with annual surcharge on vehicles

A group of 10 Democratic and 11 Republican senators supports an annual surcharge on electric vehicles, but industry advocates warn it could dampen enthusiasm for the transition away from gasoline-powered cars and trucks.

www.utilitydive.com

 

[Prunesquallor]

bullshit. i have zero faith this will happen.

I think it will. It gives Biden and Dems everything they want - a big, bi-partisan legislative win AND the remaining climate change legislation through reconciliation. Probably the only way it could happen.

 

[Unpilot]

Drip drip drip

 

[thx1139]

Darn couldnt hold above $680. So will week end with a bang tomorrow or a drop?

 

[elasalle]

contrarian options play
Need to consider some buys for tomorrow, if MM try to hard to take this back towards max pain ...

 

[LN1_Casey]

Darn couldnt hold above $680. So will week end with a bang tomorrow or a drop?

Well, I bought back that call at a loss, so probably a drop to $640.

 

[Duffer]

It never squared up in my head; how could the US further subsidize GM but not Tesla with EV credits? This makes credits a problem and I bet Ford wants to take #2 spot and just fine with how things are at this moment.

Same with infrastructure for the grid - batteries yes, but who's batteries and how are they connected to the grid?

I think Congress doesn't want (or need) to fuel Tesla's growth in either of these cases, but they need it to happen in order to meet climate goals. And there's the struggle because nobody else is ready with MegaWatt delivery today like Tesla. Therefore, I think Tesla will just continue to lead the effort and can probably do it faster than gov't anyway. The Tesla Network will expand in 3D.

It must be difficult for a member of Congress, that truly believes in EV's and clean energy, to know that the fastest way to realize the goal is via Elon.

 

[dm28997]

EV adaptation should be rushed. From all the reports I've read we are headed to over 1.5 degrees C. 122 F and rising in some areas of the US. The US government needs to look at the reality of continuing to fund fossil fuels and pass bills to remove ICE vehicles and promote BEVs powered by Solar.
Not sure if this is due to sea level rising but this Florida Condo just collapsed(water in the foundation region perhaps?)

 

[Carl Raymond]

Its worse then that. We are funding Ford's Mexican EV, Porsches German EV, all of Hyundia's Korean EV's, but not GM's partially US one and nothing from Tesla which is the most American EV. We are working against the interests of America leaving things unchanged. I would rather have the EV credit eliminated then have it stand the way it is today.

Like the comment.

A plea for all posters to watch their spelling/typing of then versus than. It’s reaching epidemic proportions and sometimes completely changes the intended meaning.

 

[OrthoSurg]

It must be difficult for a member of Congress, that truly believes in EV's and clean energy, to know that the fastest way to realize the goal is via Elon.

they should change the EV rebate name for the Legacy OEM anti-bankruptcy subsidy

 

[willow_hiller]

Biden says he will not sign the bipartisan infrastructure bill unless the bill containing the EV tax credits are also passed: ‘We’ve struck a deal’: Biden says agreement reached on infrastructure plan – live

And Pelosi won't introduce the bipartisan bill in the house until the remainder bill is prepared. So it's essentially still one package, just with a political firewall between the components seen as too progressive.

Biden has pumped the brakes just a little on the infrastructure bill, saying it must be paired with a larger spending bill, which will likely only be supported by Democrats, if he is to sign it.

“If they don’t [both] come, I’m not signing it. Real simple,” Biden said.

“So, what I expect – I expect that in the coming months this summer, before the fiscal year is over, that we will have voted on this bill, the infrastructure bill, as well as voted on the budget resolution.”

Biden added: “But if only one comes to me – if this is the only thing that comes to me, I’m not signing it. It’s in tandem.”

The larger package would include more spending on the environment and social programs, along with tax increases on the wealthiest Americans. The plan is to pass it through the reconciliation process, which theoretically could be done with just Democratic votes.

Nancy Pelosi, the House speaker had earlier said she would not introduce the infrastructure bill until the second bill was prepared.

“There ain’t no infrastructure bill without the reconciliation bill,” Pelosi said.

 

[Curt Renz]

I never read CNN nor Fox News. They both focus on telling people how to think; tell me the facts, and I’ll make up my own mind. That said, I found this headline interesting in a humorous sort of way.

Analysis: Why Tesla stock is getting left in Ford's and GM's dust

Tesla had a stellar 2020: The electric car maker was added to the S&P 500 and the stock surged an electrifying 743%. But some investors have pulled the plug on the company lately.

www.google.com

Actually, in a Ba Ha Ha, Ba Ha Ha sort of way.

"They both focus on telling people how to think"

And what to buy. Advertising is the lifeblood of the media. Tesla doesn't advertise. Ford and GM advertise quite heavily. Hence the article and its over the top FUD headline.

 

[CanadaEV]

I am not clear on the recent reticence to “believe” in these advances in TSLA.

It is appearing to me as an inevitable corollary to the fairly long period of consolidation.
It looks as almost a parallel relationship to prices prior to the opening of the Shanghai factory, when few seemed to understand what a momentous effect that would have. Prices were at significant lows only months before the factory opened.

At this point, disproportionate disappointment attends various interruptions at Berlin. Do they really matter? What does matter is the pending massive new production capacity, including those game-changing castings, new battery cell format, and direct access to the huge European market.

Any negatives holding back the stock price now will seem like unexplainable skittishness in only a few months.
If the 500 to 700 price seems to be agreed across-the-board now, double that will look conservative when we have two new factories on a trajectory to churn out millions of cars starting in only months

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Well, EM did say long term holders... so, what difference would newly bought chairs possible have?

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Looks like Starlink raised money in February at a 74B$ valuation. I'm much more fond of these two coming together in scenarios where Starlink is a relatively small % of the total.

This seems roundabout but just putting it out there. Could the strategy evolve to being a Starlink IPO with favor to TSLA shareholders followed by a kind of 'well we seem to have a lot of overlapping shareholders let's go for a merger shareholder vote?'. This is the kind of mechanical M&A logic I have no idea how to process. Post IPO it seems Starlink would likely be more expensive than pre-IPO however while that makes it less optimal for Tesla shareholders to then acquire it, it also helps ensure Starlink shareholders got full value. I can see plenty of reasons the two might benefit tied together. Not super strong ones but reasonable. Definitely would underline the fact Tesla is not just a car company.

There may be an very nice and objective Tesla-angle to Starlink: Robotaxi Emergency Remote Driving.

Think a few years - or half a decade ahead: Tesla Vision is quite safe and some form of Robotaxis is being used in several states - and maybe outside the US as well. Even if Tesla Vision is very good, there will be weird scenarios it cannot handle. Should it leave your young child or elder and fragile relative stranded? Or should a low-latency, worldwide and excellent network be used to connect the robotaxi to a center operated by human emergency drivers, who steps in and get stranded robotaxis moving?
That usecase is grounds for separating Starlink from SpaceX and IPO'ing it. Or perhaps selling it to Tesla outright.