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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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IIRC both the oil industry and auto manufacturing are about $2-3t each.

Electricity is alot cheaper than gas, so this wont be the case with EVs. 200,000 miles of gas costs ~$20,000 for the average 28mpg car. 200,000 miles of electricity is about $6,500 for a 4mi/Kwh EV.
Furthermore many EV drivers can undercut the price of a charging station at home and enjoy grater convenience (when local).
 
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All of that is easily countered. The ID as you call it would actually be a cryptographic key exchange and WOULD NOT be hackable if done properly. Anyone with their adapter stolen would have it turned off like a credit card. The adapter would not be valuable as a stolen item, because you know the precise location every time it is used.

The adapter with a small computer in it is almost certainly what will happen. Let's just say Tesla charges $199 for it up front and $20 a month. Now Tesla owners have something they get for free, while others pay to access the network and for more build out. The rates for supercharging would be similar for fast charging vehicles, but if they allowed slower charging vehicles on, those people would be charged more for using the spot longer.

Wait, but this is at least the second message to suggest a monthly fee for supercharger access. Who’s going to pay that? Nobody pays $20/mo to be allowed to stop at Exxon stations. EVs are supposed to be *better*. I just don’t see a monthly fee happening.
 
The economics of operating an EV charger are an order of magnitude better than operating a gas pump. it is potentially a very big profit generator for Tesla.
Operating a home L2 charger is quite economical, but commercial fast chargers can be quite costly for reasons including:
1. The cost of electricity is typically higher because of demand fees, charged by utilities for the privilege of being able to draw power at high levels.
2. The electrical infrastructure to supply megawatts of power is substantial, and the charging provider may have to pay for upgrades on the utility side.
3. Real estate costs, for all of those parking spaces that have to be occupied for tens of minutes at minimum, can be high.
4. Regular maintenance.
5. Most people charge at home/work for routine usage, so charger utilization is pretty uneven.

Further, it is not always be feasible to pass all of these costs along to consumers, particularly in lower-usage locations. If customers are asked to pay close to the cost of gasoline, or more, that doesn't go over well.

Tesla may end up profiting from charging, but it's hard to see this as a big money-printer on the level of FSD or building and selling cars.

Deploying more chargers, and getting the legacy OEMs to help pay for it, will benefit the mission. This is a win regardless of whether Tesla directly profits from charging.
 
Wait, but this is at least the second message to suggest a monthly fee for supercharger access. Who’s going to pay that? Nobody pays $20/mo to be allowed to stop at Exxon stations. EVs are supposed to be *better*. I just don’t see a monthly fee happening.
A monthly fee is just one way to help pay for access the largest charging network in the world. Ford did not pay to be a member of the Supercharger network. The customer (the one gaining the benefit) will have to pay instead. If you own a Mach-E, having access to reliable charging makes the car actually useful. I think that is worth $20 a month to some.
 
Wait, but this is at least the second message to suggest a monthly fee for supercharger access. Who’s going to pay that? Nobody pays $20/mo to be allowed to stop at Exxon stations. EVs are supposed to be *better*. I just don’t see a monthly fee happening.

Monthly fees already exist for some non-tesla charging networks.

So they're already happening.

Electrify America has a $4/mo Pass+ with charging discounts for example.

EVGo charges $7.99 a month with discounts (and like 30 min free charging) as another
 
Wait, but this is at least the second message to suggest a monthly fee for supercharger access. Who’s going to pay that? Nobody pays $20/mo to be allowed to stop at Exxon stations. EVs are supposed to be *better*. I just don’t see a monthly fee happening.
Monthly subscription is not even a new idea. There are many subscription programs already implemented with a bunch of charger companies in the US and EU.

Unlike gas and gas tanks, all evs and charging stations are not created equal.

In fact the cheapest option is charging at home. However people want premium charging speed they spend more on a car that can charge faster. They would also spend more on a faster charging station (which requires more expensive infrastructure and maintenance). One brand may have broken stalls all the time but another may always be reliable when it comes to hardware and software.

Comparing it to gas stations is apple and oranges, especially when there's a charging network you are borrowing from another car company.

If exxon makes ExxonMobil cars and have special perks for only their cars, other customers who did not buy an ExxonMobil car should pay to also use those perks.
 
A monthly fee is just one way to help pay for access the largest charging network in the world. Ford did not pay to be a member of the Supercharger network. The customer (the one gaining the benefit) will have to pay instead. If you own a Mach-E, having access to reliable charging makes the car actually useful. I think that is worth $20 a month to some.
Many non Tesla customers will show up at the superchargers without having setup the appropriate access. Their salesperson told them they could use it as they were closing the deal.
 
Many non Tesla customers will show up at the superchargers without having setup the appropriate access. Their salesperson told them they could use it as they were closing the deal.
That's their problem. It isn't Tesla's responsibility for what non Tesla EV owners are told when they buy from those other car makers.
 
That's their problem. It isn't Tesla's responsibility for what non Tesla EV owners are told when they buy from those other car makers.


It'll be Teslas problem when Superchargers start clogging up with EV owners blocking spots while they try and figure out why they can't charge, and angrilly call their dealer or roadside assistance or whatever while still blocking the SC slot and NOT charging... (and not even being charged idle fees since they're not in the system!)

So it's really in Teslas interests to make this access as idiot-proof as possible.
 
Another great video from Gordon Gesigy.

I've seen mining industry guys look at the Battery Day video and proclaim "lithium from clay and all they need is table salt? Wethinks Tesla doesn't know what they're talking about. We have mined lithium for years, and believe me, if this process existed we would already be doing it."

However... Tesla's lithium extraction process does appear to be nothing short of revolutionary. Just another industry getting disrupted 😀
 
Many non Tesla customers will show up at the superchargers without having setup the appropriate access. Their salesperson told them they could use it as they were closing the deal.
And they will have finally learned the easy way to know when an an auto salesperson at a dealership is lying. Their lips are moving. Also their car plug won't even fit without the adapter.
 
Opening the Supercharger network implies Tesla wants to become the charging network for the whole world. That's fine except the current network can't even support all the Teslas in the world so they better expand it a lot before this actually becomes a thing. Actual Tesla owners should be the priority for Tesla, not Bolt and Mach-E and ID.4 and Taycan owners.
 
Why are people worrying about lines at superchargers? Look at the ratio of Teslas sold vs other EVs. There aren't millions of non-Teslas suddenly going to be showing up.

I don't think Tesla should do a monthly subscription fee to access the superchargers. Sell a plug adapter with a unique encrypted ID. Charge higher rates for vehicles charging using those adapters. Simple, quick, easy to use, and non-Teslas are helping to pay for supercharger expansion.
 
I fear that the competition really is coming from Ford now.. this is a technological breakthrough! /s

 
Monthly subscription is not even a new idea. There are many subscription programs already implemented with a bunch of charger companies in the US and EU.

...

If exxon makes ExxonMobil cars and have special perks for only their cars, other customers who did not buy an ExxonMobil car should pay to also use those perks.

Uh-uh, nope, I don't buy it.

The whole reason range anxiety is a thing is because we're all coming from ICE cars, where there are gas stations all over the place and any time you get vaguely low on gas, you can just stop at a gas station nearby and fill up. I expect most ICE owners couldn't even state the max range of their vehicle, because it's so easy to refill on the go. But with EVs there are all these obstacles -- different plugs, different apps, different billing schemes, unattended stations that may be broken, cars that don't work with stations from certain manufacturers even with the correct plug (I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen the videos), all kinds of crap. You schedule a trip around the charging stops and cross your fingers that they actually work, there isn't a line, whatever. Plus it takes noticeably longer to charge than to gas up. Objectively, I think this refueling situation is way worse than gas, even if I find the overall Tesla road trip experience more relaxing.

All right, so, in the pursuit of transitioning the world to sustainable energy, we're going to make a large, well-maintained, high-speed charging network available to many non-Tesla EVs. Fantastic! They'll love it!

Only, oops, they need yet another adapter... yet another app... yet another account and billing scheme... and oh yeah, there's a monthly fee to boot.

That's crazy talk. That's not transitioning the world to sustainable energy, that's making non-Tesla EVs suck more, for longer, in the hopes of reaping some build-a-supercharger government incentives while not actually encouraging owners of other EVs to use the supercharger network.

I just don't see it.
 
I got lost right after grab the beverage of my choice suggestion. Please tell the story in pictures or provide a one word summary of how I should feel at the end of the lesson. Thank you.
Oh, DO pay attention!
Actually, I fear we all need a good ocular scrub of Meguiar’s from all the glazed eyes….

(try unseeing THAT)
 
Opening the Supercharger network implies Tesla wants to become the charging network for the whole world. That's fine except the current network can't even support all the Teslas in the world so they better expand it a lot before this actually becomes a thing. Actual Tesla owners should be the priority for Tesla, not Bolt and Mach-E and ID.4 and Taycan owners.
I could see Taycan owners really getting into the Supercharger thing. They can hang out with the cool guys instead of charging their Porsches at Walmart.