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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Chenkers

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Apr 28, 2019
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4680 production will absolutely use a DBE process. That decision needs to be made before any factory is produced given the alternative is a wet electrode process that requires football field length drying ovens. It sounds like Tesla is not getting the yield from the DBE process they need for commercial production just yet.

As a purely theoretical example - let's say they need 80 out of every 100 cells they make to meet their performance specifications before they scale up production (otherwise the cost per good cell would be too expensive when defective cell costs are included), the current process using DBE might only be producing 75 cells meeting these specifications. The DBE process is not quite refined enough yet due to some variability in output from the process. Tesla "just" needs to tweak the DBE process a little to get more consistent results to the point that Tesla is confident that 80 out of every 100 cells meeting their specifications.

The latest update from Elon was a couple of months ago stating that they will need somewhere between 12 and 18 months to get the process refined enough for commercial production.
Tesla is definitely using DBE in their 4680 production lines. Below is a plan I've posted before of the main 4680 production floor for the battery cell building at Giga Berlin. This is one of over 2000 pages in one of the files I've looked through that was submitted for the recent planning application. When zoomed in to the anode cal/lam production area it states that it is using a "dry powder". The production floor includes tesla silicon production, anode and cathode mixing and anode and cathode cal/lam, foil coating and can stamping. There is no inclusion or space for any wet slurry or drying ovens in the 4680 production proposed so it must be DBE.

GF4 Battery LG.jpg


I also recall seeing a twitter thread this week talking about Kato Rd being at iteration 5 or 6 of the production line and basically ready for volume production (I haven't found this again, so if anyone knows it then please link). I take Elon's twitter comments as being about continuous improvement in the 4680 DBE process and not suggesting any significant delay in initial production.
 

UkNorthampton

TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Jun 15, 2019
765
6,831
Northampton, England
Also recent talk of BHP exiting fossil fuels. At least one somebody at the “big Australian“ has seen the future.



Metalurgical coal will be the last to go. Without a carbon tax there’s little incentive to switch to hydrogen for steel making.

The tide may be turning, but of course our Federal govt remains beholden to fossil fuel interests. I’ll let you know if they start putting planet first. One possibility is that the US starts leaning on us to go green. That would pretty much do it…
Some nice info in there!

Pressure from shareholders and worthless fossil fuel mines or oil & gas fields, no point paying for lobbying/bribes

Less resistance to renewables, electric cars.
Indeed, lobbyists/politicians looking at new sources of support. This could flip right round, very quickly, country by country so that any fossil-supporting state is internationally isolated

1626942625639.png
 

UkNorthampton

TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Jun 15, 2019
765
6,831
Northampton, England
Fossil fuels (and hydrogen) have fairly fragile logistics.

In the UK, strikes, farmers' protests, Buncefield Depot explosion have left petrol stations without fuel on a number of occasions. Electric cars are more resilient in my view. I think we're likely to get another reminder in the UK as the issues have only just started & will (in my opinion) get worse for a while.

I also wonder about German, Belgium flooding. It's affected electricity, but presumably fuel infrastructure too (underground tanks, electric pumps, blocked roads for fuel trucks). I wonder which will be easier to fix: electric or fuel supply. Solar + off-grid capable & not directly flooded ensures some transport/air-con/heat/air-filtering (fires).

Another push towards Tesla & other EVs


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guidooo

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Sep 6, 2016
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I wonder what the impact of opening the supercharger network to all cars will be on the existing fast charging networks:

Thought about that too. Concluded that the networks are mostly complementary and that no single network can on it's own handle the avalanche of BEV coming to our roads.

Subscription models only make sense for a customer if that person is expected to charge frequently at a given network.
 

NicoV

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Jan 10, 2016
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Thought about that too. Concluded that the networks are mostly complementary and that no single network can on it's own handle the avalanche of BEV coming to our roads.

Subscription models only make sense for a customer if that person is expected to charge frequently at a given network.

The question is whether a charging network that is not (partly) funded by car manufacturers is actually a viable business.
Taking the example of FastNed (see https://presspage-production-conten...ads/2519/2021investorpresentation-2.pdf?10000 page 35 for their latest financials). They have 6 million euro revenue and a net loss of 12 million euro. Their gross revenue is barely sufficient for paying the interest in their loans.
They only survived on promise that later it will get much better, and could get more loans with that argument.
Now what happens if a competitor with 100 times more stalls enters the picture?
 

petit_bateau

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Jun 18, 2020
266
2,625
UK
The question is whether a charging network that is not (partly) funded by car manufacturers is actually a viable business.
Taking the example of FastNed (see https://presspage-production-conten...ads/2519/2021investorpresentation-2.pdf?10000 page 35 for their latest financials). They have 6 million euro revenue and a net loss of 12 million euro. Their gross revenue is barely sufficient for paying the interest in their loans.
They only survived on promise that later it will get much better, and could get more loans with that argument.
Now what happens if a competitor with 100 times more stalls enters the picture?
FastNed has always seemed to me to have the objective of being bought out by a rather obvious candidate based in the Netherlands.
 

UkNorthampton

TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Jun 15, 2019
765
6,831
Northampton, England
FastNed has always seemed to me to have the objective of being bought out by a rather obvious candidate based in the Netherlands.
My (limited) understanding is that Fastned cheaply nabbed a lot of motorway locations for charging WITHOUT opposing bids. These are premium locations, but Oil & Gas already had stations & weren't expecting EVs to take off (don't believe your own wishful thinking FUD) and also expected / lobbied for EV charging locations to have no facilities.

The restriction on Fastned (and presumably Tesla) has been overturned. Shell etc NOT happy. As EVs take off, Shell & other Oil/Fuel sale companies will go from having price gauging control along motorway routes (fuel, food) to having a nearby competitor with modern facilities more aligned with EV driving needs. Speculation: Tesla restaurants in Netherlands might be coming?



1626950904016.png
 

guidooo

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Sep 6, 2016
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They only survived on promise that later it will get much better, and could get more loans with that argument.

I'm no financial wizard and am grateful for that. But think you are right that their business model hasn't proved itself yet by the test of time. As most scale-ups they burn money for scaling up.

But why make a difference between being partly funded by car sales (Tesla / Ionity); Oil money (New motion/Shell Recharge / Total); or new investment money sprinkled with a green sauce (Fastned) ? You expect the green money sauce to dry up soon?

Now what happens if a competitor with 100 times more stalls enters the picture?

Guess we agree with everything else being the same, it's expected the newly arrived competitor takes a larger part of a very big pie.

FastNed has always seemed to me to have the objective of being bought out by a rather obvious candidate based in the Netherlands.

Cann't think of candidate with pockets deep enough, interested in car infrastructur and a similar mission statement.
 

Singuy

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Jun 28, 2018
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NicoV

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Jan 10, 2016
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I'm no financial wizard and am grateful for that. But think you are right that their business model hasn't proved itself yet by the test of time. As most scale-ups they burn money for scaling up.

But why make a difference between being partly funded by car sales (Tesla / Ionity); Oil money (New motion/Shell Recharge / Total); or new investment money sprinkled with a green sauce (Fastned) ? You expect the green money sauce to dry up soon?

Not expecting the green money to dry up, but that’s the only thing FastNed has access to. Networks funded by car manufactures may also be funded by car sales in the hope of improving those sales. And oil money? I only expect those to use their money to try to delay the inevitable.
In the short run, the charging scene will be dominated by parties willing to invest money, but in the long run it needs to be able to fund itself and provide a return to its investors. With their scale, their technology advantages (vertical integration, prefab SUCs, solar and stationary storage) Tesla is better positioned than the others. The FastNed presentation I linked to contains a lot of interesting data. They expect the fast charging market to have 1 billion euro revenue in The Netherlands and 3 billion euro in Germany by 2030. What if a good chunk of that goes to Tesla?

Cann't think of candidate with pockets deep enough, interested in car infrastructur and a similar mission statement.
Shell?
 

guidooo

Member
Sep 6, 2016
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379
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Tesla is better positioned than the others.
Agree that Tesla is very well positioned, we deviate in opinion also because i don't believe in a the winner takes it all scenario.

They expect the fast charging market to have 1 billion euro revenue in The Netherlands and 3 billion euro in Germany by 2030.
My calculator fails with those high numbers :p Do think the scale of the transition we are facing is underestimated by many.

What if a good chunk of that goes to Tesla?
Good for stakeholders in Tesla and the mars mission ?


Don't expect it, unless Shell sincerely changes it's objectives.
 
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jbcarioca

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Feb 3, 2015
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I wonder what the impact of opening the supercharger network to all cars will be on the existing fast charging networks:
- Tesla has about 700 supercharger locations in the EU (supercharge.info). No idea how many stalls, but probably at least 12 per location.
- Ionity (the biggest challenger) has 358 locations, with typically 4 stalls (my guestimate).
- FastNed (Fastned) is mainly in the Netherlands, with only 20 150kW locations outside the NL (almost all in Germany), and typically 4 stalls per location.
I’m not aware of any other international fast charging network in the EU, most of the alternatives are local, small and 50kW or lower.
So we have about 9000 Supercharger stalls, 1500 Ionity stalls and 100 FastNed stalls outside NL.
Who will pay an Ionity or FastNed subscription, when a Tesla subscription will give you an order of magnitude more charging possibilities?
Opening up the Supercharger network will have a severe financial impact on the competitors.
I'm sure that is a major issue, for another reason too. In my Tesla experience in the EU, all cross border, non-Tesla options are plentiful but...locations often have one or two chargers. Then the majority of them are single country or regional. Even if the number were not an issue the big problem is all those national options. Totally separate registration, sign-in and payment is usually required. Good luck in many that have only the dominant local language with, sometimes, mandatory payment in a local payment option. European diversity of languages, customs, regulations and procedures all conspire to make traditional pan-Europe road trips a hassle.

Now consider Tesla Superchargers. Zero hassle wherever one goes. In Eastern Europe, where dozens of those odd local networks abound, Superchargers are exactly the same everywhere, only the speeds and the legacy Tesla connector vs CCS vary.

I have travelled via Tesla through countries like Croatia, Slovenia and Serbia. Today Superchargers already have decent coverage in all those plus, soon, coverage including Istanbul and Athens from anywhere in Northern Europe. There will even be access to/from Moscow via Finland, anyway, if not elsewhere.

However Tesla chooses to order interoperability with other brands, the ability to travel throughout the popular routes in mainland Europe will certainly generate more BEV popularity than already is happening.

The largest issue will be how to achieve this profitably for Tesla while avoiding the political minefields that are already evident. Among those difficult issues is the CharIN member conflicts. Tesla can and probably will make certain that they carefully deal with public utilities and electrical suppliers. Those will be easier since Tesla si already registered in EU and UK, but the implementation political issues are crucial. As said elsewhere, adoption of CCS in North America also will end out being a necessity.

I am aware that many Tesla connector aficionados will take umbrage at the previous paragraph. It will happen anyway. Native CCS is not really very cumbersome anyway and has many technical features supporting interoperability and payment options that Tesla connectors do not have. The technical challenge is to make post-sharing Tesla ensures seamless operation. That can be assured by adopting an Apple-style ecosystem so every participant adhere precisely to all Tesla standards. That will allow Supercharger expansion to accelerate.

After that begins in earnest later next year or so, TE will begin to contribute at an accelerating basis while one fo the largest impediments to BEV adoption will begin to fade.

We are on the verge of Tesla becoming a mainstream force.Legacy OEM jingoism will be hard to sustain.
 

redan

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Jan 2, 2017
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Driving
Ron Baron's quarterly update. Big portion of the letter devoted to Elon/Tesla/SpaceX. It's a great read (intro excerpt below):


https://www.baronfunds.com/sites/default/files/Letter-from-Ron-6.30.21.pdf

“Why does it need to be like that?” Elon Musk. CEO. Tesla. CEO SpaceX. 2021. Elon Musk is the CEO of two leading “disruptive” technology businesses in which Baron Funds has significant long-term investments. The first is electric vehicle, extended range battery, alternative energy and software business Tesla, Inc. The second is the privately owned rocket ship, launch, and satellite broadband provider Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (“SpaceX”). We purchased our shares in Tesla from 2014 through 2016 and have since earned realized and unrealized profits of about 14 times the cost of our investment. We have been investing in SpaceX since 2017 and have since about doubled our money. We expect Tesla and SpaceX to each become substantially larger, more profitable, and much more valuable during the next 10 years. We often say, “we invest in people.” Since talent, motivation, integrity, leadership, and heart are difficult for algorithms and most investors to assess, I thought you might find it interesting for me to describe how we think Elon Musk is different than most executives…and part of why we believe that is a good thing…
 

lascavarian

Active Member
Jul 27, 2017
1,270
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usa
For those that listen to all sides, Cramer is putting a thesis forward that this 3 day correction has missed the point that those that view Delta as just a flu intend to resume their lives at the same time that the vaccinated intend to do the same. Airlines, thereby, should do well etc. Bull market should resume and interest is likely to rise a bit. YMMV
 

NicoV

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Jan 10, 2016
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Zulte, Belgium
I'm sure that is a major issue, for another reason too. In my Tesla experience in the EU, all cross border, non-Tesla options are plentiful but...locations often have one or two chargers. Then the majority of them are single country or regional. Even if the number were not an issue the big problem is all those national options.
Absolutely! I think only Ionity has a truely European wide presence. Unfortunately I couldn’t find any financial data on Ionity so as to assess their viability. But I found this: Is Ionity looking for external investment? - electrive.com

It seems like some of the investors in Ionity (in particular Volkswagen) are not happy with the slow expansion speed of Ionity and are looking at others ways to expand the fast charging possibilities.
 

UltradoomY

Supporting Member
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Mar 13, 2020
308
1,330
Tampa, FL
Ron Baron's quarterly update. Big portion of the letter devoted to Elon/Tesla/SpaceX. It's a great read (intro excerpt below):


https://www.baronfunds.com/sites/default/files/Letter-from-Ron-6.30.21.pdf

“Why does it need to be like that?” Elon Musk. CEO. Tesla. CEO SpaceX. 2021. Elon Musk is the CEO of two leading “disruptive” technology businesses in which Baron Funds has significant long-term investments. The first is electric vehicle, extended range battery, alternative energy and software business Tesla, Inc. The second is the privately owned rocket ship, launch, and satellite broadband provider Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (“SpaceX”). We purchased our shares in Tesla from 2014 through 2016 and have since earned realized and unrealized profits of about 14 times the cost of our investment. We have been investing in SpaceX since 2017 and have since about doubled our money. We expect Tesla and SpaceX to each become substantially larger, more profitable, and much more valuable during the next 10 years. We often say, “we invest in people.” Since talent, motivation, integrity, leadership, and heart are difficult for algorithms and most investors to assess, I thought you might find it interesting for me to describe how we think Elon Musk is different than most executives…and part of why we believe that is a good thing…
For anyone with an investment in TSLA this is an important read. Solidifies the reasoning behind "Elon Time" and why it matters.
Really appreciate posting this @redan thanks!
 

redan

Member
Jan 2, 2017
748
7,024
Driving
For anyone with an investment in TSLA this is an important read. Solidifies the reasoning behind "Elon Time" and why it matters.
Really appreciate posting this @redan thanks!

My favorite quote from the letter, while referencing SpaceX, perhaps gives some insight into Tesla's unique relationship with China:

What’s so special about SpaceX? Figuring out how to make space rockets reusable is the short answer. Since the 1960s, our government had been charged hundreds of millions of dollars for every rocket launched only to watch that rocket burn up in the atmosphere after being used only once! “Insane!” “Impossible!” was the reaction of the cost/plus aerospace industry to Elon’s efforts to create a reusable rocket! China’s government complimented Elon in a Wall Street Journal editorial after a SpaceX rocket’s successful landing, chiding its own government’s engineers. “You have been beaten to accomplish this incredible feat not by a nation state but by an individual! Congratulations, Elon Musk. China, we are 10 years behind.”

In 2021, SpaceX will provide 80% of the launches from Planet Earth to space. China will provide 12%!
 

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