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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Nocturnal

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Aug 23, 2018
6,685
35,852
Deepening Crisis!
This is all we need to know:

View attachment 686919
It's not as stupid as this.

What car company is dumb enough to take one of their ridiculously heavy gas guzzlers (G wagaon is one of the few vehicles to meet the weight requirements for the accelerated depreciation loophole) with no aerodynamics and turn it into an EV? Can you imagine?

Oh, well crap...
HoHumEV will be over 9k, and probably so will the EVG Wagon.
 

pnungesser

BarNun
Dec 9, 2015
284
1,327
Mill Spring, NC
I am expecting that for combined Megacharger/Supercharger sites with lots of stalls.

I think they may be able to get at least 1 kW of solar panels on a typical parking spot.
A lot varies with location but I think 6 kwh per pay per spot is a fairly conservative number. it could be higher say 10 kWh.
But if we say 10 stalls, the site generates 60 kWh per day, while it is a low amount, it will pay for the solar panels.

Sites need to be Supercharger V3 and have batteries to install solar, as sites get larger, it makes more sense.
We're talking about solar at Superchargers. Limited space and need for significant storage is a challenge at most SC locations.

What no one is talking about, and what I cannot understand, is why there are not solar panels covering the Gigafactories. There is also plenty of land for storage systems. The factories seem like a perfect places for virtual power plants. What am I missing? It seems that we (Tesla) are not "walking the walk".
 

ammulder

3P, X ordered
Supporting Member
Apr 11, 2019
1,136
3,865
Philly area
But the extra profit from those models isn’t necessary. That’s the whole point. The resources; engineering manpower at the top of the list, can be better spent accelerating the mission via other projects. S & X are now fluff. The mission is more important than the margins. That’s the whole point.

Around here it seems every other car is a Suburban or minivan or the like. Big, big SUVs. Some families have 4 kids and some just, I don’t know, go big. It’s pretty common for households here to have one midsize SUV and one three-row SUV, or even two three-row vehicles. So I don’t think it’s a winning strategy to eliminate the X until/unless the Cybertruck proves that it can cut into the SUV market not just the pickup market.

Even if people can’t afford the X, I think it’s crucial for Tesla to not be the small-car-and-smaller-car company, aerodynamics be damned.
 

StarFoxisDown!

Active Member
Jan 23, 2019
3,048
25,942
Seattle
When it comes to the S/X, it's important for them to keep those lines going because as battery prices fall for Tesla when the 4680's mature in volume and all the efficiencies are realized, along with other continually efficiencies in making the S/X, I see them potentially being able to lower the prices enough to where they would have enough demand for 200k S/X annually. Granted right now they're limited on production volume + strong demand which is why they're increasing prices........but long term when the volumes are higher and the battery cost reductions and efficiencies are realized, they would have the margin overhead to drop the prices pretty significantly which would open up the S/X to a much broader consumer pool.

200-250k annual volume wouldn't be anything to sneeze at in terms of revenue at a ASP of say 70-80k (between the P and LR)
 

Nocturnal

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Aug 23, 2018
6,685
35,852
Deepening Crisis!
Around here it seems every other car is a Suburban or minivan or the like. Big, big SUVs. Some families have 4 kids and some just, I don’t know, go big. It’s pretty common for households here to have one midsize SUV and one three-row SUV, or even two three-row vehicles. So I don’t think it’s a winning strategy to eliminate the X until/unless the Cybertruck proves that it can cut into the SUV market not just the pickup market.

Even if people can’t afford the X, I think it’s crucial for Tesla to not be the small-car-and-smaller-car company, aerodynamics be damned.
I'm hoping the refresh reduces some of the issues with the X and makes it easier to build and perhaps cheaper. People love big SUVs and the Cybertruck will probably not appeal to suburban moms.
 

redan

Member
Jan 2, 2017
748
7,073
Driving
Chinese automakers can now start trading their NEV credits, what does this mean for NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto? - CnEVPost

Car companies including NIO, XPeng Motors, Li Auto, Tesla China, and BYD have accumulated a lot of new energy credits last year, and now they can start trading them.

Chinese automakers can trade their credits now, with a centralized trading deadline of Aug. 31, according to a document released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) dated July 15.

...

Tesla received more than 860,000 new energy credits in China in 2020, the most of any car company, valued at RMB 2.58 billion.
 

Criscmt

Member
Feb 18, 2020
517
1,711
San Francisco
numbers don't quite align
What part are you saying is no aligning?
The numbers from Moneyball's tweets are aligning with the total Q1 production number shared by @The Accountant.
This sum for Q1 for Shanghai seems to not be far off from the P&D numbers?
 
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StarFoxisDown!

Active Member
Jan 23, 2019
3,048
25,942
Seattle
Chinese automakers can now start trading their NEV credits, what does this mean for NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto? - CnEVPost

Car companies including NIO, XPeng Motors, Li Auto, Tesla China, and BYD have accumulated a lot of new energy credits last year, and now they can start trading them.

Chinese automakers can trade their credits now, with a centralized trading deadline of Aug. 31, according to a document released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) dated July 15.

...

Tesla received more than 860,000 new energy credits in China in 2020, the most of any car company, valued at RMB 2.58 billion.

If I'm reading/understanding this correctly, Tesla has until Aug 31st to sell these credits, upon which they'll receive roughly 400 million dollars which will go straight to Q3 profit numbers?
 

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
9,747
127,008
Canada
We're talking about solar at Superchargers. Limited space and need for significant storage is a challenge at most SC locations.

What no one is talking about, and what I cannot understand, is why there are not solar panels covering the Gigafactories. There is also plenty of land for storage systems. The factories seem like a perfect places for virtual power plants. What am I missing? It seems that we (Tesla) are not "walking the walk".

For example, the grid in Nevada is largely powered by renewables. And the State of NV has provided Tesla with a generous energy tariff for electricity at Giga Nevada, which extends over the next few years.

Tesla adding (more) solar at Sparks would NOT result in CO2 emissions reductions, and would simply increase Tesla's capital cost, to no benefit. When the time comes, Tesla will add a solar farm near GF1, and the Megapacks it will take to buffer that energy. Not cheap, but the time and economics is coming.

C.f. San Franciso. The whole city is now backed up by 3GWh of Tesla Megapacks at Moss Landing. This is a project who's time is now.

Cheers!
 

capster

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Aug 11, 2018
1,028
8,096
An island planet
Agree that Tesla is very well positioned, we deviate in opinion also because i don't believe in a the winner takes it all scenario.


My calculator fails with those high numbers :p Do think the scale of the transition we are facing is underestimated by many.


Good for stakeholders in Tesla and the mars mission ?



Don't expect it, unless Shell sincerely changes it's objectives.
By default, all markets will converge to the winner-take-all dynamic—absent barriers, anomalous conditions, or outside forces that is.

Why would the charging networks market not do so?
 

capster

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Aug 11, 2018
1,028
8,096
An island planet

"The utility said on Wednesday that it will bury 10,000 miles of power lines in places that are at the greatest risk for wildfires. The ten-year project will touch 10 percent of PG&E’s transmission and distributions lines, and it will cost tens of billions of dollars."

Burying 1,000 miles of power lines every year will be a herculean task for the company. In recent years, PG&E has been burying only about 70 miles annually. In total, the company owns 20,000 miles of high-voltage transmission lines and 80,000 miles of distribution lines. The utility already has around 27,000 milesunderground, though most of that is not in areas of high fire risk. Burying power lines can be challenging, particularly in hilly and rocky terrain, which describes large parts of California. In fact, the regions that are most prone to wildfire are in some of the most challenging topography."

If only there were a company trying to exponentially increase the speed of boring tunnels while exponentially lowering the cost. 🤷‍♂️

Does make you wonder if this decision wasn’t driven in part by market data that shows people run-do-not-walk to get home solar and battery systems when their power has been (repeatedly) shut off due to fires or in order to avoid them. 🤔
 

SOULPEDL

Active Member
Jul 25, 2016
3,418
13,626
Arizona
I am on to month 5 for my system, permitting went through about 2wks ago, no word yet on install timeline.
Something we learned on our system was that approvals have to happen at Tesla, the City, and the Utility company. It's difficult to know which is holding things up. I also figure some cities weren't involved in the Tesla Templates. Top that off with battery shortages and a construction bottleneck, it's just life now I think.
 

jbcarioca

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Feb 3, 2015
5,620
29,793
Exactly this. And IMO the Infrastructure Bill and the entire process that started with a Green New Deal that was designed to invest orders of magnitude more money into accelerating sustainable energy and transportation - and that has arrived at a place where corporate-owned politicians are smiling for photo ops while they water down the Green New Deal to include benefits for Big Pharma, Insurance companies and existing grid operators while it moves the needle from 2030 to at least 2035 and removes significant opportunities for the middle and lower class is very disappointing. And yet because it has now literally been years since AOC had to stage a sit-in in Pelosi's office because Pelosi refused to even read the Green New Deal or bring it up for discussion, and it has now been years since Mark Jacobson of Stanford - perhaps one of our greatest minds available regarding transitioning the planet effectively and efficiently towards a net-zero future had not only fully embraced and endorsed the Green New Deal in its original form while encouraging world-wide adoption of a similar plan................many of us have allowed ourselves to be more accepting of the thin piece of cake about to be served, instead of the whole cake - because of course 'its the best we can do, and because we need to be pragmatic, and because we might not be able to get more than this passed with all the opposition.......even though we are the majority in all three branches now (Ssshhhh - don't tell anyone.........especially when the whole Western 1/2 of the United States is on fire, and Europe and China are living through record flooding events).....

And for all of us that believe that it is Climate Change that is the most important challenge we face today, the watering-down of the original Green New Deal to a fraction of it’s original form by House Dems has also been a bit of test to not succumb to cognitive dissonance simply because we are hoping for Tesla to qualify for new EV tax credits and TSLA shares to increase in value, and because 'it's my team that is watering it down so it must be necessary.' Another summer living in horrible air quality and poor visibility from the fires that surround us here in the Pacific NW is a great reminder to recall the details of the original Green New Deal that included some of the following promises:

  • Build enough renewable energy generation capacity for the nation’s growing needs. Currently, four federal Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) and the Tennessee Valley Authority generate and transmit power to distribution utilities in 33 states. We will create one more PMA to cover the remaining states and territories and expand the existing PMAs to build more than enough wind, solar, energy storage and geothermal power plants. We will spend $1.52 trillion on renewable energy and $852 billion to build energy storage capacity. Together, with an EPA federal renewable energy standard, this will fully drive out non-sustainable generation sources.
  • The renewable energy generated by the Green New Deal will be publicly owned, managed by the Federal Power Marketing Administrations, the Bureau of Reclamation and the Tennessee Valley Authority and sold to distribution utilities with a preference for public power districts, municipally- and cooperatively-owned utilities with democratic, public ownership, and other existing utilities that demonstrate a commitment to the public interest. The Department of Energy will provide technical assistance to states and municipalities that would like to establish publicly owned distribution utilities or community choice aggregation programs in their communities. Electricity will be sold at current rates to keep the cost of electricity stable during this transition.
  • Build a modern smart grid. A smart grid means a resilient, secure, and intelligent electric grid system that is capable of managing high amounts of renewable energy, charging electric vehicles quickly, and maximizing efficiency. We will spend $526 billion on a modern, high-volt, underground, renewable, direct current, smart, electric transmission and distribution grid will ensure our transition to 100 percent sustainable energy is safe and smooth.
  • Fully electrify and decarbonize our transportation sector. We will create a federal grant and zero-emission vehicle program to create a 100 percent renewable transportation sector. Zero-emission vehicle programs are already having success all across the country. In order to transition to 100 percent electric vehicles powered with renewable energy instead of expensive fossil fuels, we will institute:
    • Grants to purchase a new EV. Provide $2.09 trillion in grants to low- and moderate-income families and small businesses to trade in their fossil fuel-dependent vehicles for new electric vehicles. Currently purchasers of electric vehicles are wealthier than buyers of conventional cars. As president, Bernie will make sure working families share the benefits of this transition and nobody is left behind.
  • Electric vehicle charging infrastructure. In order to ensure that no one is ever stranded without the ability to charge their vehicle, we will spend $85.6 billion building a national electric vehicle charging infrastructure network similar to the gas stations and rest stops we have today. We will also ensure that new EV stations are open access and interoperable between all payment systems. Under our plan, drivers will no longer need to worry about where to charge their car or if they can pay for it.
  • School and transit buses. Provide $407 billion in grants for states to help school districts and transit agencies replace all school and transit buses with electric buses. Once older buses are replaced with clean electric buses, school districts will save in fuel and maintenance costs over the life cycle of the bus.
  • Replace all shipping trucks. Because this nation depends heavily on goods that are shipped all over the country by truckers, we must ensure that they are able to keep up their pace while we meet our climate goals. That means we must spend $216 billion to replace all diesel tractor trailer trucks with fast-charging and long-range electric trucks. Truck drivers from the largest fleets to small owner-operators will be able to access this funding.
And of course much, much more. But hey, at least now we have a deal that benefits and protects current grid owner/operators by only including "$73 billion to upgrade the electric power grid, increasing its ability to carry much larger amounts of renewable energy", while efforts are ramped up to wipe out net metering programs and any efforts to build a more distributed and robust grid from the bottom up........as @gene has pointed out on numerous occasions recently. And none of us can yet figure out where the remaining budget is really destined to go, but know it isn't going into the places that would have made the much needed immediate impact, and only 'tens of Billions' are now going into a transition to renewables per Bernie's address to the nation last week.

Yep - I too hope the EV tax credits that 'might' be announced later in the year help the rate of increase of my TSLA stock keep up with the rate of increase of airborne particulates, the air quality index, and the summer temperatures here in the pacific northwest this year while we work to create some small tax credits and of course help Berkshire Hathaway and others transition their investments and holding from coal and natural gas to their own solar and wind farms while we invest a small amount of money into improving the grid for their continued use.

We can do better. Demographics of people like those here on TMC know this to be true. We need to speak up, and we need to be willing to criticize our own team from time to time............especially when the planet is on fire.
This post is the best I have read in a long time. The world is well beyond the tipping point right now.
Water supplies are threatened seriously from the entire South West of the US, Florida's water source, the Everglades I becoming saline. Glaciers are shrinking from the Himalayas to the Andes while snow pack is fallen off in the Rickies and west. Much of Brazil is in drought while hydro-power ia drinking with water levels, while most of the Amazon river basin is flooding as are large swaths from Germany, Belgium, Netherlands to China.
Temperatures are rising so rapidly throughout the entire Arctic spawning gigantic fires from Siberia to the Canadian and US west coast.

We all know all this and much more. What we almost never do is think about how Tesla will fare through all this. We all see Tesla as part of the solution.

The problem is that the Green New Deal was far too modest. Zero chance that the US Government will take serious steps, nor will Brazil do a single think to protect the Amazon or any other responsible measure; greater than 20% of the world's fresh water is there. We cannot expect anything serious to address the hard issues anywhere. All we expect is good things for Tesla and the solar, wind and storage businesses.

How can the planet survive? I'm old so I should be OK. Candidly, I'm glad I haven't children. The prognosis is for disaster.

I hope somebody and responsibly say all that is not correct.

In the meantime most of us has comfortable or luxurious lives, and invest in Tesla etc feeling a trifle self-righteous. I know I do; then reality appears.

Short term- TSLA si on a roll
Medium Term- Elon MUST get us all to the newly terraformed Mars or something better.
Long term- don't ask

I recommend Isaac Asimov Foundation books for ideas. Oddly, Elon has suggested that too.
 

2daMoon

Mostly Harmless
Nov 25, 2020
990
7,598
Terra
We're talking about solar at Superchargers. Limited space and need for significant storage is a challenge at most SC locations.

What no one is talking about, and what I cannot understand, is why there are not solar panels covering the Gigafactories. There is also plenty of land for storage systems. The factories seem like a perfect places for virtual power plants. What am I missing? It seems that we (Tesla) are not "walking the walk".
Yeah, um, I think that the biggest hurdle is still the problem of limited battery production.

Storage of the generated power is "why" as it is kinda hard to walk the walk when there is no ground to stand on. Not much point in putting the solar panels in place if there is no way to stockpile the energy created.

Patience.
 
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