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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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And for sure, the Palladium has to have the CCS, the Chinese MS/X had them, so why not?

IIRC, not CCS, but a different Chinese standard:

Maybe they’ll use a similar gas tank door design. Not a nice solution, but better than an adapter.
 
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Chinese EV... brutal. What with the market today 😢
 
Please control your enthusiasm.:cool: Tesla does not serve in Timbuktu or any other part of Mali.;) Mali is almost totally Toyota with a handful of Mercedes Benz tossed in to complete the 428 sales in 2019. Until the get a decent electrical supply Tesla has little ability to gain market share.🧔
Just think about the markets where Tesla is NOT, at all, listed in very rough market size order: India, Brazil, Russia, Thailand, Iran, Turkey, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, Argentina. That is ten of the 25 largest car makers in the world. Tesla Energy is in been fewer.
Wherever Tesla appears (most recently Israel) it suddenly becomes a material player, if there is enough product to deliver.
Obviously sprue market size is not the story. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Brazil, Iran and Turkey have proportionately significant markets for higher end vehicles, although the vast majority of those markets is fairly basic vehicles. All of the top 25 has a significant market for high end vehicles except Iran, and even Iran has a good sized market inhibited by sanctions.

All of that also ignores that such markets as the US, Canada, China, Germany and everywhere else have limited distribution and too few sales and service outlets, so sales tend to be concentrated around those facilities. Even California and New York have uncovered areas, not to mention Texas, Michigan and all those others.
Some fo those are regulatory or just inability to scale quickly enough.

Just in case anybody actually imagines Tesla might have a demand problem sometime, just think about how limited the present service area actually is.
It will take a minimum of five years of 50% pa growth to even begin to have all those countries, and even then there will be large unserved places.

Timbuktu has been used for centuries in common dialogue of Westerners as a placeholder for any remote, far away place of little importance to daily life. In fact, in a 2006 survey of 150 young Britons, all of them indicated they didn't think the place even existed, that it was a mythical place!
 
Some comments after a bit of ruminating...

The naysayers need a new "competition is coming" narrative. "Chips" is a temporary fill-in. Longer term it may be Apple.

EM's zingers toward AAPL showed his hand a bit. Nothing much said about automotive competitors yet AAPL rates 2 zingers.

It may be that the larger players are holding off committing to TSLA today. They wait for a possible shoe to drop when AAPL reports. If nothing is heard then buying ramps up. If AAPL leaves a few bread crumbs suggesting an autonomous driving future then AAPL becomes the new face of "competition is coming".

I don't think there is much in the way of certainty to be had either way so things just drift until we get a proper foot hold to move up.
 
Exploding demand doesn't change your calculus?

And what technology are you concerned about that might not occur, 4680? Is that what you're hanging this negative thesis on?

Honestly, I'm not worried about 4680 after actually reading the Earnings Report. They have a bottleneck in the line that needs some improvement, but the 1,000,000 mi battery and quality validation comment didn't get you excited? AND a backup plan is in place just in case. The cause was an unusual phenomenon when sizing larger they did not expect. So they'll solve it with some time. Not worried. And the Semi wasn't even included in the last valuation someone posted here.

Meanwhile, Tesla will likely discover about 50 other things not on the radar with the next year. It's the speed of development, engineering, and production growth that you are underestimating, IMHO. Where do you think all that cash is going? It's R&D and expansion - both on steroids.
Man, you're not reading what I'm saying--I am not negative. Don't confuse my explanation for the market reaction with my personal opinion. Let me say it again--I believe they'll succeed with the 4680 and associated things and therefore consider this a buying opportunity. That's MY belief.

However, the market is down even though operating results were spectacular. I think it's down because Elon introduced a little uncertainty over the 4680, which is also why I think he's sliding battery hogs like the semi and CT to the right. Is it down a lot? No, as I said, it's not like this is a biotech that failed a test. It's down a little in spite of spectacular operating results because Elon introduced a little uncertainty around the 4680.

Nobody has to agree, that's ok. But if you don't think it's that, why is the stock down after spectacular results? I think it's because of uncertainty around the battery pack--if you think it's because of uncertainty over chips, that's ok too.

But I am not personally negative, the MARKET is, not me. I'm just trying to explain what I think the cause is.
 
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Stocks seem down pretty drastically across the board. What did I miss in the macro environment?

Dan
Personally I think it's the MM's/Hedgies fronting the market. Seems to be a sector rotation every other day for the moment and I think it's well planned to cream the options market and shake out weak hands

Given the obvious shift to sustainability and renewables, all the EV stocks getting hammered, seems short-sighted

We've also got the general CN stocks issue which is bringing tech down too
 
As I said, it's not like this is a biotech that failed a test. It's down a little in spite of spectacular operating results because Elon introduced a little uncertainty around the 4680.

Nobody has to agree, that's ok. But if you don't think it's that, why is the market down after spectacular results? I think it's because of uncertainty around the battery pack--if you think it's because of uncertainty over chips, that's ok too.
It’s down because macros are down big. Tesla almost always trades at a 2.5 X multiple to the NASDAQ… And growth stocks trade at even higher multiples on macro days like today…when the market goes crazy.

Obviously MMs and shorts will jump in to capitalize (manipurbate/profit)… Maybe some of them will cover; if they’re smart.

Eventually the weighing machine will kick in again, and the voting machine will be (once again) burned at the stake.

Buy the (sugar) dips and HODL. Hopefully this lower BB holds as support and we get a nice bounce. We’re in a pretty strong bull market rn and just posted blowout earnings. This isn’t a day where a 4.*% drop can spook me.
 
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Seems to be a sector rotation every other day for the moment and I think it's well planned to cream the options market and shake out weak hands
This is it IMHO. Wall street has some really smart people with a very narrow focus.
It is all about the churn. How to make money in the short term. These people are very good at that.

They could not actually build anything. They don't have a time horizon beyond a few months at best.

But man can they "move" the market day to day.
 
It’s down because macros are down big. Tesla almost always trades at a 2.5 X multiple to the NASDAQ… And growth stocks trade at even higher multiples on macro days like today…when the market goes crazy.

Obviously MMs and shorts will jump in to capitalize (manipsturbate/profit)… Maybe some of them will cover; if they’re smart.

Eventually the weighing machine will kick in again, and the voting machine will be (once again) burned at the stake.

Buy the (sugar) dips and HODL. Hopefully this lower BB holds as support and we get a nice bounce. We’re in a pretty strong bull market rn.
Yeah, I'm a big beta guy--I'll buy that, at least partially. But honestly maybe it really is that simple..
 
Martin Viecha: (41:04)
Okay. Thank you very much. Let’s go through the last investor question. Does Tesla plan to offer more services beyond FSD or high-speed connectivity as part of its subscription bundle going forward? What areas in particular present an opportunity?

Elon Musk: (41:25)
We don’t have a lot of ideas on this to be frank. Really full self-driving is the main thing. Things are obviously headed towards fully autonomous electric vehicle future. I think Tesla is well positioned, and frankly is the leader objectively, in both of those arenas, electrification and autonomy. It’s always tempting to try to find analogies, with other companies, whatever, but really the value of a fully electric autonomous fleet is it’s going to be gigantic, boggles the mind really. That will be one of the most valuable things that is ever done in the history of civilization.

There has been chatter about games/music/food delivery etc, which to me seems Elon considers rounding errors in the scheme of things. To me the bold is all you need to know. Elon is competitive. He wants to win this race. Stock price will follow , within a decade. 620? 580? 900? Lets talk in ten years, as likely wont matter much what your entry is now.