Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CanadaEV]

"You too, Jim, thanks"???

Rob is always so steady with his short term observations, sometimes people who don't know his style might mistake him as overly conservative.
It was kind of neat to see him unable to resist making that final point.
Coming from him, that is really a resounding, WTF?!?

 

[Zero CO2]

something that finally hit me during the 2Q earnings QA that i did not internalize until Elon said this :

"But the contracts that we have with cell suppliers call for roughly a doubling of cell supply to Tesla in 2022. And we have to juggle these exponential -- it's a whole bunch of exponential graphs sort of overlaying on top of each other. And small changes in where you are on the x-axis of time can quite substantially change the area under the curve. So what we're thinking of doing depending on -- is basically overshooting on cell supply for vehicles, and then as we have say excess cell supply in one month or another, then routing that so outputs to the Megapack and Powerwall.

Well, by the same token, if we're prioritizing vehicle production, If there's a shortage of cell upward for some reason, then we will throttle down Megapack and Powerwall production. So it could be something's got to give, basically."

vehicles sales in a downturn tend to drop off a cliff...this is one area that over the long run that has concerned me about TSLA ; however , what do businesses and consumers do in a downturn ? they look for cost savings hence .... Megapack and Powerwall... this is fantastic diversification and insulation form soft vehicle sales ...

I sort of understood the power business strategy but Elons answer to the question above crystallized it for me ... they will have a use for batteries independent of auto demand ... this cannot be said for " the competition"... other than Lucids dreams ....the only chance is to follow Tesla's plan exactly ... otherwise banwupt


sorry if this is redundant to many here but i am a bit slow .....

 

[Jack6591]

The landscape of the battlefield is changing. What brought us to this point, may not get us across the finish line. I believe Tesla needs to do a better job of controlling the narrative.
I’m not suggesting that Tesla needs paint a rose-colored future; only that we need to speak the truth to power, in the clear voice of a lion.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Last call for sub $650 share purchases! Get em while they're hot!

 

[johnm6875]

Cash in my primary investment account is now $89.78. I have never had it this low in fifty years or ever imagined I would have it this low. TSLA draws an amazing, once in a lifetime, commitment and, not just for the money I might (expect to) make. I am inspired by the Mission, the execution, the products, and the community. What a ride. Thanks to one and all.

 

[ifish]

Does anyone know if I order a Model Y I can specify it be built in Austin and with 4680 batteries.

 

[thx1139]

Does anyone know if I order a Model Y I can specify it be built in Austin and with 4680 batteries.

Nope and doubt you ever will.

 

[Nocturnal]

Personally I think it's the MM's/Hedgies fronting the market. Seems to be a sector rotation every other day for the moment and I think it's well planned to cream the options market and shake out weak hands

Given the obvious shift to sustainability and renewables, all the EV stocks getting hammered, seems short-sighted

We've also got the general CN stocks issue which is bringing tech down too

Just had this conversation with a buddy. I think they understand that retail investing is hot and easy money. That's why every month we have the freak out over inflation and covid. Rinse and repeat.

The landscape of the battlefield is changing. What brought us to this point, may not get us across the finish line. I believe Tesla needs to do a better job of controlling the narrative.
I’m not suggesting that Tesla needs paint a rose-colored future; only that we need to speak the truth to power, in the clear voice of a lion.

Hopefully what they are doing in China is a test bed for this. Advertising is always a hot topic for Tesla folks, but I think some limited brand maintenance and awareness would be money well spent. Tesla once relied on new allies to spread the word, but lines have been drawn.

 

[madodel]

Wanna hear you say: Whooo whooo!

View attachment 688758
Just down 2,6 % after blowout earnings

Today confirms my long held investment belief that most investors should not be allowed near sharp objects or investment accounts. My God people are stupid. How could any rational, intelligent being read that ER and not think "Tesla is an endless money making machine"? I've seen it happen before but still amazed at how clueless most people with money are.

 

[Wigan]

To me, true autonomous is beyond a game changer, it starts a new game. How much is it worth to crawl into your little Japanese capsule hotel room in the back of your Y or CT on Friday night, push the 'go' button, watch TV, drink a few beers, and wake up Saturday morning in your son's driveway that's 600 miles away?

 

[mrmage]

Doubled my 2023 1400/1600 call spreads @$10ish today, which accounts for 5% of my portfolio.

Those return 20x (2,000%) if TSLA hits 1600 by 2023. I love this stock. Where else can you get all the great news and still have a couple weeks or months to buy before the market reacts?

Go big or go home.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I didn't say I doubt it, why would I buy if I doubt it? I said you can't validate it using short term current operational results. You have to envision success with the technological advances like the 4680 or FSD that enable both geometric growth and margin expansion. I believe those things will happen, but they could have sold another 50,000 cars and it wouldn't changed my expectation about those things happening. Nothing they could do in production or sales would affect my degree of confidence in future technological improvements.

OK, I can't quote you as saying the word "doubt." It's just how I took it from several comments like: "Current production, and even current production trends, simply can't get you there."

So you don't see the value of 20M units collecting a constant stream of software revenue, and with auto margins approaching 30%? You think this is not good enough to justify the current stock price today?

IMO, Tesla is executing beyond my expectations in many, many ways. It's damn near Mission Impossible since Ford, and they are crushing it. But then again, I put a higher value on Factory/Manufacturing, Workforce, Software, and outright Honesty from the top than most (would use as a guide for valuation). It's further undervalued simply bc they innovate faster than anyone else including Apple or Google. The P/E ratio logic or growth models don't apply here, it's too low still. Further, many analysts put it at a $1,200 valuation. That's what I see as well, and I predicted the last runup. We just don't know exactly when is all.

 

[Wigan]

Does anyone know if I order a Model Y I can specify it be built in Austin and with 4680 batteries.

No. Speculation is whenever the next Gen Y comes out to those specs it'll be labeled a Plus or something like that and command a higher price for a while until the current Y is produced out and done. And/or at first the batteries will be dedicated to the Performance model at first. But nobody knows for sure how they'll do it. But no, you can't 'specify' that.

 

[traxila]

Does anyone know if I order a Model Y I can specify it be built in Austin and with 4680 batteries.

Just tweet Elon. He is taking custom orders, including where you want your raw materials sourced. He used to do colors as well, but seems there is some spectrum perception disagreement amongst the general population on that, so he said the hell with it.

 

[lafrisbee]

The stock is Ripping it!
Over 26MIILION shares haver transferred hands.
Over 1.5x the last week average (or higher)...and we are only down 2.2%!
Way to go Tesla!

 

[woodisgood]

Some comments after a bit of ruminating...

The naysayers need a new "competition is coming" narrative. "Chips" is a temporary fill-in. Longer term it may be Apple.

EM's zingers toward AAPL showed his hand a bit. Nothing much said about automotive competitors yet AAPL rates 2 zingers.

It may be that the larger players are holding off committing to TSLA today. They wait for a possible shoe to drop when AAPL reports. If nothing is heard then buying ramps up. If AAPL leaves a few bread crumbs suggesting an autonomous driving future then AAPL becomes the new face of "competition is coming".

I don't think there is much in the way of certainty to be had either way so things just drift until we get a proper foot hold to move up.Is Rob now an employee of THE STREET, or just uses it as a distribution platform (re possible Cramer leverage)?

I’m not sure of Rob’s arrangement with The Street. I think he remains largely independent but is a “contributor” of content, for which he is compensated.

 

[Carl Raymond]

50 at $632 about an hour ago.

Rage buy.

 

[woodisgood]

Just tweet Elon. He is taking custom orders, including where you want your raw materials sourced. He used to do colors as well, but seems there is some spectrum perception disagreement amongst the general population on that, so he said the hell with it.

There’s only one thing Elon loves more than managing people, and that’s managing the custom order book.

 

[lafrisbee]

The stock is Ripping it!
Over 26MIILION shares haver transferred hands.
Over 1.5x the last week average (or higher)...and we are only down 2.2%!
Way to go Tesla!

In case there is some confusion about my post. After the Earnings Report last night I predicted TSLA would stay above $600 this week, and it seems to be holding up!?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1420073717955244035

(sorry for the Sawyer link but this doesn't relate to his "sources" lo.)

Really seems like all of Wall St is in on this "downplay" of Tesla's potential, even 6-12 months from now.......just to stall so that their "investment" side of the bank can rearrange their positions around the stock. I mean this is from a Bull......and look at his 2022 revenue and EPS estimates........they make zero logical sense. Pretty much every Wall St analyst has increased their EPS for 2021 and 2022, some as much as 50%, while either keeping their PT the same or only increasing it very slightly.