Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Wigan]

Maybe we jut have a lot more Duke fans on TMC

It feels like we have plenty!!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Our therapy is simply buying some more shares.

I still think we could see green by the end of the day. It won't be the first time.

I don't. TSLA has noticeably detached from the momentum of the Nasdaq. It's being capped from any further gains. Given the still relatively low volume (for such a big earnings), seems like max pain is going to be factor for this week. So I doubt we go above 650 for the week.


.....I'd love to be wrong though

 

[Drezil]

I don't. TSLA has noticeably detached from the momentum of the Nasdaq. It's being capped from any further gains. Given the still relatively low volume (for such a big earnings), seems like max pain is going to be factor for this week. So I doubt we go above 650 for the week.


.....I'd love to be wrong though

My calls beg for you to be wrong .. -.-

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I don't buy that for a second. If you're saying they're downplaying from what they heard on the earnings call, then they also heard Zach reiterate that they still expect the majority of their 2021 sales and production ramp to happen 2nd half of 2021. Estimating 52 billion 2022 revenues and only $4.63 EPS is not logical, even with supply headwinds. Tesla will be at a 14-15 billion revenue run rate by Q4 earnings. That's 56-60 billion 2022 revenues with no further growth. They're CHOOSING to ignore things and looking for anything and everything to be able to warrant them not increasing their PT or not increasing them that much....even though they're increasing their EPS estimates greatly.

It's late July, who's gonna do all that model adjustment work when it's not even in their financial interest to do so? I bet a lot of it is simple incentive to be lazy and ignore the last two quarters of updates.

Someone will have to start updating soon and will buy based on the outcome of their simple analysis. That'll start the fomo frenzy with a backdrop of MM naked short and hedgie short unwinding. It'll be fun eventually. Hell.....could be tomorrow!

 

[ZachF]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1420073717955244035

(sorry for the Sawyer link but this doesn't relate to his "sources" lo.)

Really seems like all of Wall St is in on this "downplay" of Tesla's potential, even 6-12 months from now.......just to stall so that their "investment" side of the bank can rearrange their positions around the stock. I mean this is from a Bull......and look at his 2022 revenue and EPS estimates........they make zero logical sense. Pretty much every Wall St analyst has increased their EPS for 2021 and 2022, some as much as 50%, while either keeping their PT the same or only increasing it very slightly.

$47b for `21 and $52b in `22 for revenue?


What is this analyst smoking?

Tesla in Q2 is already running at a $48b pace, and will probably be closer to their 22 number

22 will probably be 75-85 billion.

I can believe they actually get paid to write this crap...

 

[Zero CO2]

It's so funny, in my normal investment circles I'm almost a pariah because I completely disregard PE in my investment decisions, especially w/r/t growth companies. Here I'm getting crushed essentially for noting the market is overly PE obsessed. I think PE can be useful for mature companies on stable and predictable growth and margin trends. I think it's useless to the point of being counterproductive in early stage growth companies--TSLA, SQ, CRM, etc.

I think I've somehow succeeded in being a pariah in both camps!

I've also made the razor and blade point you've made, that eventually Tesla will eventually transition to blade profits with the various software services and capabilities that selling a software-centric piece of hardware enables.

But you DO have to believe in the technological enablers of that story--I don't believe Tesla gets to that 20M sales with 320 mile ranges that sell at a significant premium where there are lots of competitors Next year when everybody has 300 mile range Tesla needs to be introducing 400 at lower cost, and a year or so after that when everybody gets to 400 they need to be introducing 500 at even lower cost, and 250 miles for $25K. Do that and yes, 10 or 20M units are in sight.

So no, simply put I don't think Tesla can scale the current cars indefinitely to 20M, especially if Elon really is going to give away the SC network to the competition. But I also don't think they'll have to, I they'll continue to innovate both in engineering design and production management and stay about a generation and a half ahead of the competition. I'm actually one of the ones that thinks Tesla has a real chance to put GM and Ford out of business. If they can produce the 4680 and battery pack and in four months are announcing a Y with 425 miles of range for $45K, a 3 with 450 miles of range for 38K, and a model 2 with 300 miles of range for $25K I think Ford and GM are in crisis mode.

GM will have their lobbyists going full bore AGAINST any sort of tax credits because a Model 2 for effectively $15K is game over.

I think most of us here lose you on the "where there are lots of competitors Next year when everybody has 300 mile range"
this is not likely ... OEMs are on the horns of the Innovators Dilemma ... most will not survive .. there may be some competitors in areas Tesla does not focus on ... Tesla has dominated every segment they have entered this will continue ... into the foreseeable future

and lots of competitors does not equal lots of sales for said competitors

 

[ZachF]

I'm thinking Zack and Drew are going to be a bit more upbeat in future calls, plus less of the rabbit-hole stuff and doom-mongering from Elon

Not that I want them to put pearls on a pig, but as Elon recently admitted, he does often dig his own grave

Elon is just hyper-focused on problems (and how to solve them)... Which is probably one of his greatest strengths TBH.

 

[traxila]

$47b for `21 and $52b in `22 for revenue?


What is this analyst smoking?

Tesla in Q2 is already running at a $48b pace, and will probably be closer to their 22 number

22 will probably be 75-85 billion.

I can believe they actually get paid to write this crap...

It is incoherent.

If they believe those numbers then they should pound the table that the Tesla growth story is over. This would translate into loads of underutilized capacity in Berlin, Shanghai and Austin.

They should slash their price target to 200 with a conviction strong sell.

Whatever. Proof yet again of the charade that is WS. It is the game they play and always will.

 

[ZachF]

Dont fret too hard about the short-term SP.

We've now gotten even more evidence in the pile and the long-term thesis is now stronger than ever.

If a few smoothbrains decide to gift you a better buy-in, take it.

 

[elasalle]

Dont fret too hard about the short-term SP.

We've now gotten even more evidence in the pile and the long-term thesis is now stronger than ever.

If a few smoothbrains decide to gift you a better buy-in, take it.

Chin up, take some punches in the gut.
Rope a dope, we gonna rumble in the jungle soon

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Chin up, take some punches in the gut.
Rope a dope, we gonna rumble in the jungle soon

Chin up, take some punches to the gut............and swap a ton of stock for insanely cheap mid 2023 Calls

 

[StealthP3D]

EM's zingers toward AAPL showed his hand a bit. Nothing much said about automotive competitors yet AAPL rates 2 zingers.

I only heard Elon's Apple comment in which he said Tesla was opening up their charging networks to non-Tesla because it wasn't his intention to make Tesla a "walled garden" ala Apple. And my take of that comment was that it was not at all directed to Apple as a potential Tesla competitor - it was simply a statement of intent that he wanted Tesla to be a company that worked with other companies to further the goals of sustainability, not wall themselves off and declare it's everything Tesla or nothing Tesla as Apple has a history of doing.

I say this because it's inconceivable to me that Elon feels even a tiny threat from any other EV startups. And the reason for that is, for a competitor to be a threat, they must offer better value, much better value, than Tesla themselves. Which implies a manufacturing efficiency and skill that is difficult for me to imagine that anyone else will be able to replicate or catch up to. Because Tesla is constantly improving their manufacturing efficiency. If Apple enters the EV market, and I doubt they will, they could only be a credible competitor to the 97% of the market that is ICE. And Elon knows this.

It may be that the larger players are holding off committing to TSLA today. They wait for a possible shoe to drop when AAPL reports. If nothing is heard then buying ramps up. If AAPL leaves a few bread crumbs suggesting an autonomous driving future then AAPL becomes the new face of "competition is coming".

I don't think there is much in the way of certainty to be had either way so things just drift until we get a proper foot hold to move up.

I don't think it will be long before the market establishes TSLA will not be selling off. And as that becomes apparent, the buyers will start buying. I don't think it will take long at all, probably late today or tomorrow. It feels like there is considerable buy interest but people see no rush jump in. That will change quickly but it might not (probably won't) be a powerful move in historical terms of percent gained. We might be trading mostly sideways (on average) for a while longer.

 

[elasalle]

Chin up, take some punches to the gut............and swap a ton of stock for insanely cheap mid 2023 Calls

No swaps for me, all my stocks tagged with CC's. Theta decay is my play.
Current gains in Jan 2023 CC's is more than my actual principal across all accounts. Most are in 1700 strikes- so look safe. So need to wait till atleast jan 22 for rolling to jan 24s ....

 

[goinfraftw]

Anyone know much about being a limited partner in a VC vehicle? Would enjoy asking some questions after sending out some feelers.

 

[madodel]

The stock is Ripping it!
Over 26MIILION shares haver transferred hands.
Over 1.5x the last week average (or higher)...and we are only down 2.2%!
Way to go Tesla!

I guess according to Niedermoron it's a "Going out of business sale". I hope he and the other "Tesla Death Watch" idiots are shorting the hell out of TSLA to create those shares from thin air. They haven't been beaten enough yet with a Ultra-hard 30X Cold-rolled Stainless Steel sledge hammer.

 

[Ohmster]

Some ‘analysts’ need the same fate.

Huawei's head of autonomous driving lost his job after claiming Tesla vehicles are killing people — Electrek

Su Qing, the head of autonomous driving at Huawei, has been removed from his position after making some controversial comments about Tesla — going as far as claiming that Tesla vehicles are killing people.

apple.news

 

[aubreymcfato]

I must say this feels utterly familiar... The real bubble was 2020, when suddenly everyone understood Tesla!

 

[phantasms]

Whoa. Tesla account page all different now.

 

[fiveten]

Whoa. Tesla account page all different now.

Thats cool that you can see your previously owned Tesla's on it (or maybe you always could and I never noticed)

 

[Wigan]

I think most of us here lose you on the "where there are lots of competitors Next year when everybody has 300 mile range"
this is not likely ... OEMs are on the horns of the Innovators Dilemma ... most will not survive .. there may be some competitors in areas Tesla does not focus on ... Tesla has dominated every segment they have entered this will continue ... into the foreseeable future

and lots of competitors does not equal lots of sales for said competitors

Although I disagree with you, to your point right now the waiting list for a Ford Mach-e Premium, the only one that's even close to competitive with the Y, is 24+ weeks and it costs $53,000 with no upgrades except the extended range. And it's not really competitive, but at least it's close. Of course, it does qualify for the tax credit, but to me that's a nit in the big scheme of things. The credit only good for 200,000 vehicles and that's not even one quarter of Tesla's production and I'm sure Ford has used up a bunch of theirs already. So it's never going to help them get to any scale to challenge Tesla. And at full price I don't know how anyone would choose the Ford on specs unless they were just a Tesla hater or just had to have a Ford.