Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tronguy]

Random idea re: Opening up the supercharger network.
Make it public that Tesla is overcharging non teslas for the power. All the excess income goes into a ringfenced fund, and that cash is automatically allocated to discount the price for teslas. Could even be done on a state by state or even location by location basis.
That way any tesla owner sat waiting for a nissan leaf to charge can be comfortable in the knowledge that his next charge is getting part-subsidized by the leaf owner.

Actually, none of the above is actually really necessary. My back of the envelope calculations has charging up at Superchargers with a Telsa costs roughly twice as much as it costs me, retail (plus or minus the solar panels on the roof). So, why 2x the cost for electricity?

• Cost of electricity (but buying in bulk gets one lower costs..)
• Cost of maintenance on the Superchargers (they do break)
• Cost of putting more Superchargers across the landscape.

Elon has stated a couple of times that the Supercharger network is not a profit center; what money goes into goes into the three bullet items listed. And that, boys and girls, is why charging at SC's is a lot less than, say, charging up at Electrify America and similar. Those other providers are trying to make a profit to keep Wall Street and lenders happy: Telsa just wants to make the whole BEV experience, including charging, an overwhelming positive over ICE infrastructure so the world can go into electric transportation.
With more users more money can be socked into the third bullet item, expanding the network faster; and we're back to faster exponential growth in the beginning of the S-curve. Better for us and a disaster for the greedheads.
Besides.. Making those adapters generally available and, possibly, over time outfitting even Teslas with CCS will provide a political path to allow more SC's to show up on semi-public property at rest stops without getting complaints from politicians about putting a proprietary charging station on State Land.
A little funning around with costs (in a minor way) to push non-Tesla BEVs that can't charge at 250 kW to clean up their act doesn't change the basic equation of above, but does provides additional pressure on non-Tesla BEV manufacturers to clean up their act and get with the program.

 

[StealthP3D]

Random idea re: Opening up the supercharger network.
Make it public that Tesla is overcharging non teslas for the power. All the excess income goes into a ringfenced fund, and that cash is automatically allocated to discount the price for teslas. Could even be done on a state by state or even location by location basis.
That way any tesla owner sat waiting for a nissan leaf to charge can be comfortable in the knowledge that his next charge is getting part-subsidized by the leaf owner.

I'm all for opening the SC network to all comers, for a price. But not to discount my future Supercharging, to accelerate the network buildout to more areas and increase capacity in areas that need more capacity.

Because when I want to Supercharge, I want to Supercharge now. I don't care how much it costs (within reason).

 

[Wicket]

One thing I'd add if I were Tesla, in regard to opening superchargers up more widely, is a chart and regression of the last 10 years of supercharger installs and then a promise to ensure that the new pace will be much faster which can be overlayed on the chart. Pretty intuitive one glimpse understanding of the tradeoff. I might avoid literally making this promise but the insinuation should generally be that any additional revenue gets plowed into more expansions. One of the advantages of being at the beginning of such dramatic growth is it seems far more difficult to expand superchargers and not have it ultimately pay off. Until there is some valid narrative of how these would become stranded assets my answer is 'more more more'. Of course eventually V1, V2, V3 are all obsoleted but I remember using gas stations that didn't even have CC equipment at the pump for eons (not Elons which are longer).

 

[st_lopes]

Is this actually a good thing? Genuine question. My first thought would be that R&D is exactly the kind of stuff I'd want Tesla spending on: please keep developing cool new stuff.

A large part of the drop is also due to stock based compensation decreasing. Q1 had a major increase due to the meteoric rise in stock price in that quarter. So all stock comp components granted in that period had an above average hit to expenses.

 

[Carl Raymond]

If this doesn't put a smile on your face on a Sunday, you might be dead inside....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1416550119516753921

It's a well disguised DOGE pump. If she had referenced TSLA instead of DOGE, would have been great.

 

[ZachF]

Those kind of BEV comparisons would be more useful if they excluded all "golf cart" BEV's selling for less than, say $10K.

Standards are important. Just like we shouldn't think only electric vehicles compete with electric vehicles. Because the low cost "golf cart" BEV's in China are expanding the automotive market, not competing with Tesla. They wouldn't even be street legal here. Yet they make up what, around half of the statistics?

They often toss PHEVs in there too, which is annoying...

 

[capster]

I bet IDRA's parent company could replicate their Italian manufacturing plant in China and be pumping out Gigapresses within two or three years. But where would the initial production go? Probably to Chinese auto companies. Are they already in motion?

This is one more reason why I don't expect Tesla to become the only large manufacturer. Unless maybe Tesla has pre-order contracts for the next 4-6 years production of Gigapresses! This is the kind of info that can be invaluable to the investor. Is IDRA expanding production capability? Does Tesla have purchase rights?

On a related thought, it would be good to pay attention to what Tesla ends up implementing in Austin in terms of automated brake's for Cybertruck.

I suspect Tesla may indeed have orders in with IDRA for 4 to 8 years worth of production for the largest presses and that IDRA may be expanding that production just to meet those orders.

IDRA’s parent may already be replicating or have already replicated the Italian plant to fulfill more of Tesla’s orders.

How much more will capacity be expanded without firm orders from legacy OEM’s? How long till legacy OEM’s are in a position to make those orders? Will legacy OEM’s founder in the time their metamorphosis takes—the time to realize they need the presses to compete; the time it takes to redesign their cars; the time to refactor their lines and factories?

Tesla doesn’t need to reach ~42 million of, say, this year’s ~84 million (est.) units to have 50% of the global automotive market. The lack supply of Gigapresses is just one of the shoals upon which the legacies may founder. There is a good chance the ICE share of the market will implode thus handing Tesla a globally dominant position at a much lower volume.

 

[ammulder]

Tesla will add new models before consumer demand for Models 3 and Y is satisfied. Because there is no one final answer for what consumer demand is, if Tesla ramps production of those models too quickly, they will hit a temporal demand limit. The ultimate demand, as people learn more about the products, is much higher. But it takes time for the demand limit to expand.

More time, higher demand. It's a moving target and we are a long way from the ultimate peak demand.

For what its worth, it seems demand can vary a lot by region/configuration. For instance, the Model Y LR/AWD seems vastly more in demand in North America than China, but it would appear that China demand really popped for the Y SR. It could be possible that Tesla miscalculates demand for a region and doesn’t configure their factories correctly for that region and takes a hit to reconfigure for something else. What if NA can’t soak as much Y production as Austin provides? What if they would have been better off starting with Cybertruck? What if Europe Y demand isn’t 2 million/yr and Berlin can’t grow to its potential without a hot hatch or something? Doesn’t make sense to be shipping from Berlin to US if that’s where Y demand is.

Not saying this is likely, but large global demand doesn’t automatically mean success I think.

To understand why global dominance of Tesla will not happen is simply to note all the national champions and major employers which will not be permitted to fail.

From a technical perspective such a thing could happen. Quite a number have come close through the industrial era.
Today SpaceX is perhaps the only proven example fo an entity that actually could become a monopoly. We all know that will not ahpemn because politicians can and do select obsolete and inferior technology to preserve political advantages. Were superiority relevant the SLS would have died at least five years ago. There is zero doubt that The EU will not let Arianespace die, nor will Russia or China cede to proven superiority.

In any case, I think it's quite unlikely Tesla will ever rise above 50-60% market share but not for the reasons you lay out in your previous missive. It's because I expect other manufacturers to re-organize and develop lower cost structures so they can copy Tesla's cost-lowering innovations, perhaps not on equal footing with Tesla but probably closely enough to be able to compete (eventually).

What if FSD gets really good? Not robotaxi good, but super amazing driver assist good? If Tesla banks $200/mo on most cars, or $10k up front, then they might have the choice of selling “below cost“ or booking monster profits. And tech like that isn’t so easy for another company to replicate. Maybe Mobileye can, but what if they can’t? What if the sandboxed approaches are never as desirable to the consumer? What if VW learns that more millions of lines of code don’t actually make their product better? It’s not a given that a government can support a local favorite through developing FSD from scratch. Tesla must have what, a 10-year head start? I think if FSD was what gave Tesla a huge leg up, it could be damn hard to dethrone them with any kind of legislation or support for competitors.

 

[JimS]

If this doesn't put a smile on your face on a Sunday, you might be dead inside....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1416550119516753921

I think she earned that car!

 

[StealthP3D]

IDRA’s parent may already be replicating or have already replicated the Italian plant to fulfill more of Tesla’s orders.

How much more will capacity be expanded without firm orders from legacy OEM’s? How long till legacy OEM’s are in a position to make those orders? Will legacy OEM’s founder in the time their metamorphosis takes—the time to realize they need the presses to compete; the time it takes to redesign their cars; the time to refactor their lines and factories?

Indeed. Common word is that it takes a legacy maker 5-6 years to go from new vehicle concept to production ready. That's considered on the fast side of things. I don't think using a major new technology like megacastings would speed up that process considering they would have to come up to speed on something totally unfamiliar.

Tesla has an entirely different corporate structure. Tell me it's easy to change that!

 

[RobDickinson]

The adoption of Gigapresses for legacy automakers would conceivably entail a wholesale refactoring of manufacturing and factories. Perhaps some forward thinking automakers have orders in already, just in case.

They would need to retool plant for using larger cast structures, but they would only do it if it was faster and cheaper.

The issue with that is that the process requires specific patented alloys to work , there are no off the shelf material sources that can be rapid cast and dont require significant heat treatment or retooling in post processing.

Without that its a bust. None of these companies develop their own alloys. And they would have to steer clear enough of teslas patent even if they tried.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think she earned that car!

You have pretty low standards! I think she might have earned 2 minutes of Elon's time. Wait...that's worth more than the car!

 

[Fred42]

Isn't the V-6 the only diesel Ford offers in the F-150?

Yes. From the linked article:
we are removing the diesel from our lineup. For customers who need maximum towing torque, we now offer the F-150 PowerBoost as the ideal combination of capability, power and fuel efficiency

The F-150 Powerboost is a gasoline hybrid.

Also I checked Ford's web site. The only diesel offered for the 2021 F-150 was the V6. So diesel F-150's are gone for 2022.

 

[StealthP3D]

They would need to retool plant for using larger cast structures, but they would only do it if it was faster and cheaper.

The issue with that is that the process requires specific patented alloys to work , there are no off the shelf material sources that can be rapid cast and dont require significant heat treatment or retooling in post processing.

Without that its a bust. None of these companies develop their own alloys. And they would have to steer clear enough of teslas patent even if they tried.

It wouldn't surprise me to see legacy (or startup) automakers, at least ones still standing, using mega-castings in around 4-6 years. I don't think the patent thing is a big deal in this instance. If needed, Tesla would probably license the proprietary alloys at very low to no cost with the condition they only be used for pure BEV's.

 

[RobDickinson]

Few manufacturers have managed production skateboard Evs as yet near a decade after the model S. These things are often closer to 8-10 year cycles, we are seeing a vast rush to try and match the 2016 (reveal) model 3, nothing does, 5 years on.

Would tesla licence the alloy? I guess they might if they had some return from it. They have a lot of stuff they could licence or supply but they are entirely focused on their own business for now.

If they did, or even if they didnt I wouldnt expect competitors to be doing similar until 2030.

 

[wipster]

I think she earned that car!

#1 with a rocket! To Mars!

 

[Chenkers]

I bet IDRA's parent company could replicate their Italian manufacturing plant in China and be pumping out Gigapresses within two or three years. But where would the initial production go? Probably to Chinese auto companies. Are they already in motion?

Where do you think the gigapresses installed in Shanghai came from?

LK Machinery (parent of IDRA) made the gigapresses in Shanghai and already has a significant manufacturing capacity for gigapresses in place. You can see from a screenshot below from Tesla China's video of the gigapress that they are quite different to the IDRA machines with different model codes (DCC6000 vs OL6100CS).

We've talked about IDRA launching 8000 ton gigapresses for the Cybertruck. The article below from the 23rd April 2021 notes that LK Machinery have completed their first 9000 ton gigapress (called the Dreampress). LK Machinery | The World Premiere of Dreampress 9000-ton Giga Press die-casting machine

The article also states that: "One of the loyal customers of LK, who has been using more than 200 units of LK machines, has ordered 3 sets of LK Giga Press die-casting machines, which are 6800-ton, 8000-ton and 9000-ton. The signing ceremony was held during this event." I wonder who this loyal customer could be and what they will use the presses to produce?

Edit: After a bit more digging it appears the company ordering the 3 gigapresses above is Ruili Group, a chinese automotive parts supplier. So it seems that some others in the auto industry are getting in on the act.

 

[nativewolf]

Yes. From the linked article:
we are removing the diesel from our lineup. For customers who need maximum towing torque, we now offer the F-150 PowerBoost as the ideal combination of capability, power and fuel efficiency

The F-150 Powerboost is a gasoline hybrid.

Also I checked Ford's web site. The only diesel offered for the 2021 F-150 was the V6. So diesel F-150's are gone for 2022.

Really no point in a f150 diesel. It tows fine for smaller loads. For really heavy towing you move up to a f350 that has the chasis and brakes to handle 26k lb tow loads. Really the f350 is a medium truck disguised as a light truck. It is a monster in capability and for that you need a diesel.

 

[JusRelax]

Where do you think the gigapresses installed in Shanghai came from?

LK Machinery (parent of IDRA) made the gigapresses in Shanghai and already has a significant manufacturing capacity for gigapresses in place. You can see from a screenshot below from Tesla China's video of the gigapress that they are quite different to the IDRA machines with different model codes (DCC6000 vs OL6100CS).

View attachment 690817

We've talked about IDRA launching 8000 ton gigapresses for the Cybertruck. The article below from the 23rd April 2021 notes that LK Machinery have completed their first 9000 ton gigapress (called the Dreampress). LK Machinery | The World Premiere of Dreampress 9000-ton Giga Press die-casting machine

The article also states that: "One of the loyal customers of LK, who has been using more than 200 units of LK machines, has ordered 3 sets of LK Giga Press die-casting machines, which are 6800-ton, 8000-ton and 9000-ton. The signing ceremony was held during this event." I wonder who this loyal customer could be and what they will use the presses to produce?

Some fruit company most likely has a secret partnership with Mattel and worked with them and LK to design these presses. /s

 

[RobDickinson]

The article also states that: "One of the loyal customers of LK, who has been using more than 200 units of LK machines, has ordered 3 sets of LK Giga Press die-casting machines, which are 6800-ton, 8000-ton and 9000-ton. The signing ceremony was held during this event." I wonder who this loyal customer could be and what they will use the presses to produce?

LK Group

L.K. Group is one of the global leaders in producing die-casting machines, plastic injection molding machines and CNC machining centers.

www.lk.world

This suggests it is Ruili Group and Shanghai Fanuc ?

Tesla isnt the only company casting large things!