Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

NicoV

Active Member
Supporting Member
Jan 10, 2016
2,216
23,066
Belgium
Just arrived home from summer holiday, the 6th summer vacation driving our Tesla Model S. There were a number of firsts:
- first time we drove over 1200km in a single day (wel, ignoring the half hour we needed this night because of German road construction delays)
- first time I saw a charging queue. Not at a supercharger, but at the 4 non-Tesla stalls next to the supercharger. There were a dozen people around those CCS stalls, probably still figuring out how this charging thing works. A couple of Taycans, a Volvo , a Volkswagen. One Taycan was very oddly parked, probably to reach the charging cable. 5 or 6 Tesla’s charging at the 16-stall supercharger, with nobody inside the cars. Why would they, it’s just plugging in and enjoying a drink at the bar.
- first time I saw a non-Tesla EV outside it’s home country (A Belgian ID.4 driving very fast).
- in general, lot’s of EV’s everywhere (of various brands). We stayed in Slovenia, and saw a lot of Slovenian Model 3’s.
- first time we didn’t have a hot meal during one of the charging stops. Not enough time for that, barely enough time to eat a sandwich. Most stops needed more time for a toilet visit and a coffee than for charging.

TBH: I’v been in a SUC queue once in those 6 years, but that was a freak coincidence because the SUC was half empty by the time I left.
 
Last edited:

Papafox

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Jan 12, 2013
5,352
72,616
If we believe MM & shortz manipulate TSLA on a daily basis to their advantage, how do we explain why on a day like today, where the volume was record low, didn’t they at least hit max pain of $700 when it should have been easy peasy lemon squeezy?

The shorts are so low in numbers now that they typically don't manipulate TSLA. Hedge funds do some profitable pushdowns during macro dips, however. Market makers manipulate regularly, though. For most the summer we've been hitting Friday within a couple bucks of the effective max pain price. That's just too much to blame on coincidence, week after week after week.

Regarding today's trading, most of us who track the manipulations have been speculating a Friday close somewhere between 700 and 710. One TMC member believes it'll be 706. The number of puts and calls are pretty even at 705 so there's not too much incentive on Wednesday to be above or below that number. A close near 708 is "good enough" for a Wednesday close.
 
Just arrived home from summer holiday, the 6th summer vacation driving our Tesla Model S. There were a number of firsts:
- first time we drove over 1200km in a single day (wel, ignoring the half hour we needed this night because of German road construction delays)
- first time I saw a charging queue. Not at a supercharger, but at the 4 non-Tesla stalls next to the supercharger. There were a dozen people around those CCS stalls, probably still figuring out how this charging thing works. A couple of Taycans, a Volvo , a Volkswagen. One Taycan was very oddly parked, probably to reach the charging cable. 5 or 6 Tesla’s charging at the 16-stall supercharger, with nobody inside the cars. Why would they, it’s just plugging in and enjoying a drink at the bar.
- first time I saw a non-Tesla EV outside it’s home country (A Belgian ID.4 driving very fast).
- in general, lot’s of EV’s everywhere (of various brands). We stayed in Slovenia, and saw a lot of Slovenian Model 3’s.
- first time we didn’t have a hot meal during one of the charging stops. Not enough time for that, barely enough time to eat a sandwich. Most stops needed more time for a toilet visit and a coffee than for charging.

TBH: I’v been in a SUC queue once in those 6 years, but that was a freak coincidence because the SUC was half empty by the time I left.
Great, isn't it? They've added many new locations and a lot of stalls to the older ones, plus the M3 come and go very fast with the V3 speed - I had a similar great experience on my Barcelona road-trip

BTW, Is your Model S with the CCS upgrade, because this was a game-changer for me
 
Last edited:
TBH: I’v been in a SUC queue once in those 6 years, but that was a freak coincidence because the SUC was half empty by the time I left.
It wasn’t a hydrogen station, Nico. I doesn’t work that way with electricity, so no need for Tesla to dispatch a truck with freshly minted electrons.
 

StarFoxisDown!

Well-Known Member
Jan 23, 2019
5,219
53,487
Seattle
Carson block (short) reported on CNBC has a newsletter where he seems to have capitulated on Tesla. They will have him on latter. He now sees lower rates long tern as a decarbonization tool.
Lol some us have been calling that for years. It’s so obvious that the elimination of fossil fuels will lead to deflation due to a huge decrease in the cost of energy/fuel…..which is the biggest cost to inflation
 
[OT] Sorta. From @Buckminster in Elon's Thread's pics of Elon and his family visiting Florence

Here's to wishing all billionnaires would have similar good tastes, family values, not to mention well meaning altruistic ambitions.
Or -would work just as well- if all average folks would spend their money better - no need for polluting Coke and bottled "vitamin" waters, senselessly packaged foods and goods..

'Visit Florence!': Elon Musk has private tour of the Uffizi Gallery with girlfriend Grimes, 33, and his teenage children as he celebrates his 50th birthday​

  • The Tesla founder was in Florence on Sunday with his family and in Berlin for meetings on Wednesday
  • Musk, who turned 50 in June, was joined by his Canadian girlfriend Grimes, 33, for their European jaunt
  • Their one-year-old son, X Æ A-12, was not seen but three of his five teenage sons were pictured with their father and his singer girlfriend at the Uffizi
  • The group was shown around the famed museum by the mayor of Florence and the museum's director
  • The mayor posted a clip to Twitter of the South African billionaire saying in Italian: 'Visit Florence!'
  • Musk and his family later on Sunday enjoyed dinner at a 130-year-old Florentine restaurant in a cavern beneath the city
  • On Wednesday Musk was in Germany for a series of meetings as he works to open a $6.9 billion Tesla factory near Berlin

EMSK.Uffizi.Family.2.jpg


And fun moment recorded on Mayor of Florence's Twitter
 
Last edited:
Carson block (short) reported on CNBC has a newsletter where he seems to have capitulated on Tesla. They will have him on latter. He now sees lower rates long tern as a decarbonization tool.
The Short Seller, Carson Block of Muddy Waters apparently stated in his fund's letter that he was wrong and Shorts have been wrong not only on Tesla's ability to scale production but their ability to scale capital.
 

Artful Dodger

"Kabukichi on the Hudson"
Aug 9, 2018
12,817
177,568
Canada
If we believe MM & shortz manipulate TSLA on a daily basis to their advantage, how do we explain why on a day like today, where the volume was record low, didn’t they at least hit max pain of $700 when it should have been easy peasy lemon squeezy?

Options MMs are not trying for max-pain, they're moving the SP to the level that kills the most calls without moving the puts at that same SP into the money. Today that level is (surprise) around $705 (notice the huge Open Interest at that strike vs the surrounding price levels).

Here's this mornings Open Interest from the 7 a.m. ET update: (based on yesterday's data)

TSLA.OI.Table.2021-08-12.07-00.png


I call it my experimental "C-P Breakpoint" analysis (see yellow row in the table above). It gives a deeper look into what moves the market (max-pain is a very "blunt" tool).

Next, be aware that (at last count) there are ~29 separate MMs in TSLA, and each will have different levels on capital, conviction, and participation on this equity. For instance, when large hedge fund Citadel LLC joined the group of MMs on Feb 1st, 2020 we got the "Black Tuesday" event for TSLA where the SP plummeted > $100 (pre-split) in the final 15 of trading. That's a "bare raid" (as in bare-naked aggression). "Max-pain" both hides and waters down any such intent.

Advice? Study the market. Form a theory and test it by making predictions That's the scientific approach. The key advantage is CNBS can't BS science and data. That's how Elon rolls.

Good luck!
 

keydiver

Member
Supporting Member
Jul 31, 2015
482
3,920
Hobe Sound, FL
I get your point, but making the ground rules uniform and creating massive economies of scale will ensure that the combined cost of housing plus energy will ultimately decrease. Anyway, Tesla also requires battery storage to be bundled with solar, so there’s that.
Maybe this is why Elon wants/expects to get Powerwall production capacity up to 1,000,000 units per year by the end of 2022?
 

lascavarian

little endian
Supporting Member
Jul 27, 2017
1,604
9,536
usa
The Short Seller, Carson Block of Muddy Waters apparently stated in his fund's letter that he was wrong and Shorts have been wrong not only on Tesla's ability to scale production but their ability to scale capital.
On now & starting with Musk.

Anti the person but praising the results of dragging world into EV future.

edit. Ignoring the slams on EM, revealing comments on changes to the short thesis basis. Low rates & meme investing gutting shorts!

edit 2. This info from his newsletter may correlate with the drop in volume and option valuation recently.
 
Last edited:

hobbes

Active Member
Feb 11, 2013
3,096
21,821
Germany
Just arrived home from summer holiday, the 6th summer vacation driving our Tesla Model S. There were a number of firsts:
- first time we drove over 1200km in a single day (wel, ignoring the half hour we needed this night because of German road construction delays)
- first time I saw a charging queue. Not at a supercharger, but at the 4 non-Tesla stalls next to the supercharger. There were a dozen people around those CCS stalls, probably still figuring out how this charging thing works. A couple of Taycans, a Volvo , a Volkswagen. One Taycan was very oddly parked, probably to reach the charging cable. 5 or 6 Tesla’s charging at the 16-stall supercharger, with nobody inside the cars. Why would they, it’s just plugging in and enjoying a drink at the bar.
- first time I saw a non-Tesla EV outside it’s home country (A Belgian ID.4 driving very fast).
- in general, lot’s of EV’s everywhere (of various brands). We stayed in Slovenia, and saw a lot of Slovenian Model 3’s.
- first time we didn’t have a hot meal during one of the charging stops. Not enough time for that, barely enough time to eat a sandwich. Most stops needed more time for a toilet visit and a coffee than for charging.

TBH: I’v been in a SUC queue once in those 6 years, but that was a freak coincidence because the SUC was half empty by the time I left.

I also returned from a vacation to Lake Garda in Northern Italy a few days ago driving my 2019 Model 3 LR AWD. My take aways:

- On just one drive along the lakeside through the touristiy places, a kid called his dad pointing at my car, "look, it´s a Tesla" and in the next village, a whole group of kids standing at the side of the road broke out in cheers while I was driving by. Similar experiences on other days :).

- Driving the car in the mountains is so cool. All one pedal driving, even on 20% downhill slopes. Especially on steep narrow uphills (road not wide enough for two cars driving in opposite directions) when you have to stop, go back to let someone pass - a breeze when all you need is the accelerator and gear switch. You never feel like you waste energy going downhill either.

- Charging is absolutely a non-issue with the pace of Supercharger buildout. V3 makes things much better because you don´t have to share power when stations get crowded. No charging planning needed, just drive as fast as you want and charge when you have to. Charged on a regular outlet at an appartment I rented over night, too, gave the host a tip.

- At the Supercharger on top of Brenner mountain pass (one of the main north-south road connections across the alps) I charged with about 10 other Teslas, while opposite there was another EV charger with only one BMW i3 - the sight of the couple charging there standing in front of their car looking at all the Teslas was quite funny.

- Also on the way, I was surprised the screen never showed an amount to pay at SCs. First I thought it was a bug, later I realized someone I gave my referral to finally got his Tesla (didn´t get any notification), so the trip was pretty much free, too :)

- Freeway driving is so much less tiring with AP. I used to arrive all tired when driving ICEs and need a day extra just to recover from 1000km driving, not any more!

IMG_6025.jpg
 
[OT] Sorta. From @Buckminster in Elon's Thread's pics of Elon and his family visiting Florence

Here's to wishing all billionnaires would have similar good tastes, family values, not to mention well meaning altruistic ambitions.
Or -would work just as well- if all average folks would spend their money better - no need for polluting Coke and bottled "vitamin" waters, senselessly packaged foods and goods..

'Visit Florence!': Elon Musk has private tour of the Uffizi Gallery with girlfriend Grimes, 33, and his teenage children as he celebrates his 50th birthday​

  • The Tesla founder was in Florence on Sunday with his family and in Berlin for meetings on Wednesday
  • Musk, who turned 50 in June, was joined by his Canadian girlfriend Grimes, 33, for their European jaunt
  • Their one-year-old son, X Æ A-12, was not seen but three of his five teenage sons were pictured with their father and his singer girlfriend at the Uffizi
  • The group was shown around the famed museum by the mayor of Florence and the museum's director
  • The mayor posted a clip to Twitter of the South African billionaire saying in Italian: 'Visit Florence!'
  • Musk and his family later on Sunday enjoyed dinner at a 130-year-old Florentine restaurant in a cavern beneath the city
  • On Wednesday Musk was in Germany for a series of meetings as he works to open a $6.9 billion Tesla factory near Berlin

View attachment 695551

And fun moment recorded on Mayor of Florence's Twitter
That’s great but I was secretly hoping they would have offloaded race car and suspension advancements in a partnership with Ferrari. Tesla really just needs to make so many batteries and full self driving software to be worried about Actual car development.
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: Skryll
[OT] Sorta. From @Buckminster in Elon's Thread's pics of Elon and his family visiting Florence

Here's to wishing all billionnaires would have similar good tastes, family values, not to mention well meaning altruistic ambitions.
Or -would work just as well- if all average folks would spend their money better - no need for polluting Coke and bottled "vitamin" waters, senselessly packaged foods and goods..

'Visit Florence!': Elon Musk has private tour of the Uffizi Gallery with girlfriend Grimes, 33, and his teenage children as he celebrates his 50th birthday​

  • The Tesla founder was in Florence on Sunday with his family and in Berlin for meetings on Wednesday
  • Musk, who turned 50 in June, was joined by his Canadian girlfriend Grimes, 33, for their European jaunt
  • Their one-year-old son, X Æ A-12, was not seen but three of his five teenage sons were pictured with their father and his singer girlfriend at the Uffizi
  • The group was shown around the famed museum by the mayor of Florence and the museum's director
  • The mayor posted a clip to Twitter of the South African billionaire saying in Italian: 'Visit Florence!'
  • Musk and his family later on Sunday enjoyed dinner at a 130-year-old Florentine restaurant in a cavern beneath the city
  • On Wednesday Musk was in Germany for a series of meetings as he works to open a $6.9 billion Tesla factory near Berlin

View attachment 695551

And fun moment recorded on Mayor of Florence's Twitter
If had an opportunity to ask Elon just two questions, they would be:

1) Was the 5/1 timing of your "Tesla stock price is too high imo" tweet purposeful or coincidental?

2) Do you wear the same Cybertruck shirt everyday or do you have a closet with 20 of them?
 

About Us

Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.

Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


SUPPORT TMC
Top