Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

I agree that Rivian seems expensive but I wouldn't use those TeslaQ "2 million per car" valuation models for Rivian either. Electric vehicle market is also totally different now than 2010. It was a huge risk to create EV company back then.

It's still a huge risk to create a new auto company today, even if it is an EV car company. The only reason Rivian and others can try is because investors are willing to fund them just as they were with Tesla over a decade ago. But giving a company money does not ensure success and Elon has highlighted this repeatedly by emphasizing how incredibly difficult it is to scale production profitably. He's not saying this to reduce future competition, he's saying it because it's the absolute truth, a truth that most people cannot even fully comprehend. That's why he keeps repeating it - he can barely believe they did it. And you know their were a few dozen under Elon's direction giving it their all.

 

[Words of HABIT]

It is an apples and oranges market compared to when Tesla IPO'd. Back then, 99% of people thought an EV only company would fail as it wasn't scalable. Add to that, that no automaker startup had succeeded for 80 years. Today, we know not only are EVs able to be manufactured, they can be profitable and scalable. Plus there is a roadmap to having an EV startup succeed. Still incredibly difficult, but it isn't impossible.

I see the case for Rivian going forward, and $80b isn't completely unreasonable to me. Lucid is currently around $36b... and I would say that Rivian has a much better chance at carving out a market. It is aspirational and involves a lot of projection. But if they could hit 50k combined trucks and suvs with 5k vans, they'll have a shot. Personally, I also feel the Tesla market cap right now just isn't high enough. Even just looking at the EV business and margins looking forward, Tesla should probably be in the 1.0-1.2t market cap. Once other parts can reasonably be projected by analysts, they'll add more to that number (especially if FSD works).

Today we know that EVs are able to scale, be mass manufactured and be profitable. So far only Tesla can lay claim to this.

I hope Rivian and others manufacturers of EVs succeed as Tesla can not do this alone. More EV manufacturers the better. However just because Tesla was able to manufacture EVs successfully does not imply that others (OEM or upstart EV manufacturers) will be able to do this. The shear gargantuan task completed by Tesla must not be overlooked or trivalized. Rivian, thanks for the opportunity to partake in your IPO but I'll pass and stick with Tesla whom IMHO better deserves my hard earned investment dollars.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Ummm.....

NHTSA Says Don't Drive Your 2021 Ford F-150

Ford has issued a recall for driver and passenger seatbelts that might not hold you in place in a crash.

www.roadandtrack.com

 

[woodisgood]

Ummm.....

NHTSA Says Don't Drive Your 2021 Ford F-150

Ford has issued a recall for driver and passenger seatbelts that might not hold you in place in a crash.

www.roadandtrack.com

But F is up 3.3%. Makes sense.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So today's news appears to be buoyant macros after the FED meeting, and word of a net $2B increase in the TSLA position for a large investment bank in Q2, all on mid-levels of volume.

Hope this holds through the final hour of trading. GLTA.

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

Sad thing is, many imbeciles on Wall Street will jump on the bandwagon to make a quick buck. However, I suspect Rivian is going to be in for a bumpy ride. With tapering talks and rate hikes coming in a year or so, IPOs are not going to enjoy the same lofty level of valuation.

I think they priced it right for price stability. It's high enough that it could dissuade the bulk of the quick money speculators but low enough it might trade above the IPO valuation, at least for a while. That's what a company wants, to raise the money they need without dropping below the IPO price soon after going public. They will get a lot of principled investors that are in it for the long haul. If Rivian succeeds they will eventually profit.

EV's are an exploding market so Rivian's success or failure will largely depend upon RJ Scaringe's decision making ability over all facets of the company, especially product strategy, hiring top talent and avoiding beginner mistakes. There are hundreds of potential beginner mistakes that might not be apparent until it's too late. This endeavor requires extreme vision in many dimensions. And while I've seen him in a few interviews, I don't have a lot to judge his abilities on other than he founded his company before Tesla went public and has not seemed to have the drive and natural ability that Elon has demonstrated over the same period. While it's always possible he has been learning, watching and strategizing to maximize the chance of success at the critical moment, I don't have much to go on to make this leap of faith. The lack of progress over the 12 years since founding does not inspire confidence overall and that's the primary thing that stands out to me. Hopefully he has a brilliant plan that is not apparent to me and is wildly successful.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Rivian Seeks $80 Billion Valuation In IPO

The company has plans for an IPO at the start of the holiday season, but hasn't delivered a vehicle to a customer yet.

jalopnik.com

This article cites November 25th as the Rivian IPO date.

Imagine if Elon decides to have some fun and announces a split / share dividend the same day.

 

[Joe F]

But F is up 3.3%. Makes sense.

Yep, a major F up.

Austin getting so close to being finished. I like to think watching the Joe Tegtmeyer drone flyovers at 2X would get it finished faster, but so far nada.

Fun watching the Cybertruck womb taking shape. Can't deliver fast enough!

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Tesla diagnostic software now available for purchase in the US

Tesla quietly debuted a set of service subscriptions that could help owners work on their own vehicles. The service subscriptions could pave the way for Tesla to allow owners to repair their own cars. Tesla offers two service subscription packages. The first subscription is the Service and...

www.teslarati.com

TL;DR "Tesla quietly debuted a set of service subscriptions that could help owners work on their own vehicles."

Another Subscription based service from Tesla. Pricing ranges from $31.88/hr to $3187.50 Annually for service and repair information, & between $333/month to $2K Annually for Diagnostic information. More income streams.

 

[Singuy]

Tesla China Delivery updates

Model 3 SR: 4-6 weeks
Model 3 performance: 4-6 weeks
Model Y SR+: 6-10 weeks
Model Y LR: 4th quarter
Model Y performance: Begin in 3rd quarter

Alexis Tesla.cn Ranking: #6,969 (fully recovered and surpassed engagement prior to Shanghai brake FUD)

 

[lafrisbee]

MaxPain started the week at $680 and kept ticking up since wednesday.
While the stated Maxpain on Friday morning was $700 it sure didn't look like it based on eyeballing the charts... but it seemed in the morning it would finish at $705 the first time I looked at the Maxpain this morning...but then the $710 put spike showed up later in the day... is that what happened?
Even then I thought MM's were going to peg it right at $710.
?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Yep, a major F up.

Austin getting so close to being finished. I like to think watching the Joe Tegtmeyer drone flyovers at 2X would get it finished faster, but so far nada.

Fun watching the Cybertruck womb taking shape. Can't deliver fast enough!

An F-150 Lightning commercial popped up today on Bloomberg and I couldn't help but that to myself that no one was gonna buy it. Poorly conceived. I don't think CT is the big threat as it'll be a fringe product, but the likes of Rivian or others will likely end up crushing the F-150. Sad. (kind of)

 

[EVMeister]

If volume dwindles to nothing, which it probably will, you'll find us likely pegged to max pain of $700.

Nah, ignoring the calculated max pain number and actually looking at the graph, it'll be a close of 709

I foresee 6 9 8

$708.78 I reckon.

Bunch of clueless noobs.

 

[AudubonB]

At +4.7% since last Friday, today’s +1.5% is a good ending to a good week.

But only ~13MM shares traded! This late summer doldrums is really dull. Max says Let the Wild Rumpus begin!

 

[AudubonB]

And yes, I DO have some trenchant Veblen remarks to add to the T.S. Eliot, but Gussie’s library input also is fun. And appropriate.

 

[Nocturnal]

So strange that we end-ed up right around the effective max pain price.

 

[thx1139]

Tesla Daily is 4 years old today

 

[carterm2]

So strange that we end-ed up right around the effective max pain price.

Apricot.com had MPain at $700

Where did you get your "effective max pain" price. thx

 

[mltv]

Rivian will have the same valuation Tesla had in Dec 2019, when producing almost 400k vehicles / yr, 2 profitable quarters in a row, risk of bankruptcy greatly reduced, Shanghai factory almost going online, Model Y 1 quarter away from production, etc...

So yeah, basically the same

I somehow have a feeling they base their valuation on capital already raised. So they already eating 10bln investment. Those investors need a certain return: 5x - 10x. (so let's pick a random number between these 8). So the 80bln. Nothing to do with how many cars they sold

 

[Discoducky]

An F-150 Lightning commercial popped up today on Bloomberg and I couldn't help but that to myself that no one was gonna buy it. Poorly conceived. I don't think CT is the big threat as it'll be a fringe product, but the likes of Rivian or others will likely end up crushing the F-150. Sad. (kind of)

I don't think CT is the big threat as it'll be a fringe product

The looks are super weird and I hate to admit 'growing on me' but I'm firmly in the camp that Tesla will sell these like hot cakes as the specs and price are far and away better than anything including the Ford or Rivian offering...

2022 sales of >50k and >200k in 2023 is my target