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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

2daMoon

Mostly Harmless
Nov 25, 2020
1,075
8,542
Terra
I hear the ford autopilot is quite nice on the machE on highways. All I've heard. The GM product in cadillac is supposed to be nice from what I hear. Again, I have never seen it. I hope they all show that these systems beat the heck out of cars with no systems.
So, you haven't clicked on any of the several links in this thread to Sandy Munro with the Ford rep in the passenger seat as a slight bend in the highway turns off the Blue Snooze autopilot while they were chatting?

Ford rep then says something like, "It is designed to disengage on sharp turns" or some such nonsense. It was the slightest of bends on a busy multi-lane highway. No prior warning, it just disengages and the car starts heading toward the adjacent lane and Sandy caught it in time.

It seems to me that "using no system" would perform better than any driver assist that resorts to a "pure physics" :eek: pilot mode when confronted with anything beyond a straight road ahead, potentially sending an inattentive driver across occupied lanes without warning.
 

traxila

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Nov 25, 2012
1,912
12,028
NYC
Everyone in the financial MM seems to be glad that the correction has arrived, that we were warned, that we should have known better and that it is going to get much worse before it improves. A little taken aback as to how uniform that whole message is. Think they were handed talking points last week.
 

Ratanpara

Member
Sep 29, 2016
231
1,125
Brick NJ
v10 does look like a very good advacnement, but in the limited amount of beta test videos I have seen online I have already seen close calls where FSD was trying to turn into fast moving oncoming traffic with only a last second disengagement by the driver avoiding a serious crash.

If you think regulators are going to rely on logical thought and statistics when FSD causes a fatality event that is judged to have been impossible for the human monitor to prevent, then I have a bridge to sell you.

It is a very real possibility that when it occurs that Tesla will have to indeed remove the FSD beta program, and move to an internal testing program where testers are employed by Tesla. I don’t think that would be a big detriment to FSD development, with the result being a small relative rise in R&D costs. I’m not saying it’s a definite, but investors shouldn’t be downplaying this outcome.

Regardless of whether or not regulators end up shutting down the public FSD beta program after a FSD fatality, it is going to be a MASSIVE media event and will be one of the most challenging times for the Tesla brand. It will not be viewed as a Tesla driver killing someone, but instead tesla’s software. For most companies, beta testing a product in public that ends up killing people is a bad thing.

I have no intention of selling my shares and am still in accumulation mode, but I am very prepared for the inevitable poopstorm of negative headlines the rapidly approaching FSD beta program will no doubt produce.

I think many are underestimating the required level cost/benefit ratio for FSD in terms of human lives lost for it to be acceptable to regulators. It’s probably higher than 10:1, and maybe closer to 100:1.

Think of it this way: how many deaths from side effects are judged as acceptable when regulators are evaluating new medications/therapies?
So far Tesla has handled FSD rollout perfectly, they won’t go wide release until data suggests it’s ready.
 

Words of HABIT

Active Member
Jan 19, 2013
1,104
14,274
Canada
Tesla's TSLA faired better than most auto stocks.

GM -3.82%
TSLA -3.88%
VW -4.14%
F -5.39%
NIO -6.24%
XPEV -6.30%
LI - 7.49%


Summary of Aug 21 (updated Aug 27), 2021 article by electrive.com:

"The Chinese real estate group Evergrande looks like it is on the verge of withdrawing from the automobile business. Evergrande owns or has stakes in numerous EV companies (NOT Tesla). Now Evergrande is struggling to pay its debts after Beijing stepped up curbs on the real estate sector to contain the risks of a bubble.

With its first foray into the EV business, Evergrande initially invested in Faraday Future through its health division Evergrande Health.
Evergrande has mainly purchased know-how either by means of by partial entry as in the case of Koenigsegg,
by means of joint ventures as in the case of Hofer or
by cooperation as in the case of FEV Group, EDAG, IAV Group, AVL and Magna, or
by means of a takeover as in the case of Swedish-based carmaker NEVS.
It also pursued its own plans and the first six electric cars were announced a year ago through the Hengchi brand.

As the ChinaStarMarket now reports, Evergrande could sell off its car business in the course of the debt crisis and the group is already in talks with several companies, including Nio, Xpeng and Xaiomi.

Evergrande debt crisis will affect the Swedish company NEVS, formerly called Saab. Evergrande increased its stake to 82.4 per cent in November 2019 and bought up the final shares in June 2020. (complete takeover by Evergrande). It remains to be seen whether the restructuring at NEVS will also affect the production of Sono Motors’ Sion."



China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) has been on a slippery slope since topping out at $30.05/share on October 2017 to its present day $2.28/share. Five year chart shown below.
Screen Shot 2021-09-20 at 6.26.20 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-09-20 at 6.25.53 PM.png


With months waiting list for Tesla vehicles and growing exponentially, doubling of manufacturing and products expected within the next twelve months, I don't see any reason why Tesla would sell off along with the greater market over the Evergrande collapse. There was a lot of panic selling today which unfairly spilled over into TSLA for short term gamblers. IMHO September 2022 TSLA will seem like a steal at today's prices. Those who are patient and not leveraged will reap the rewards and be able to sleep easier.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange was closed today for holiday so they will need to catch up on the down side of today's sell off which may spur more pressure for Tuesday trading.

EDIT, misread the article. Looks like Nio and XPeng could be beneficiaries should Evergrande be able to sell their EV businesses to them.
 
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goinfraftw

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Jan 1, 2017
982
7,779
USA
Wow, Boring Company was founded in December 17th, 2016. We're cropping up on the 5 year milestone for the company.

In terms of its relationship to Tesla, the Tesla Hawthorne test tunnel was completed 2 years later with the Model X going through it on December 18th, 2018.

5 months passed and Las Vegas purchased the contract for Boring Company to build a loop for the convention center there. It's amazing how much progress they've made in only, almost, 5 years...even though they haven't really crossed the chasm as a startup yet, IMO.

The loop in Las Vegas needs to be completed and shown working for an entire city before we see real scale, right? or am I thinking too simplistically?
 

henchman24

Member
Dec 18, 2019
333
1,910
Wyoming
The 2nd 5+% correction of the year for SPX has happened. Typically 2-3 happen per year... last years with 3 were 2014 and 2015. Last year with none was 2017. This is normal and healthy for a market to correct. When this correction ends, and as long as China eases fears of their issues, SPX will be in good shape to climb for a while again. Tesla will likely be a strong part of the with a blowout Q3.
 

Silent Ludicrosy

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Mar 14, 2018
854
11,007
Phoenix

Skryll

Active Member
Mar 12, 2016
1,016
4,264
San Francisco,CA
Wow, Boring Company was founded in December 17th, 2016. We're cropping up on the 5 year milestone for the company.

In terms of its relationship to Tesla, the Tesla Hawthorne test tunnel was completed 2 years later with the Model X going through it on December 18th, 2018.

5 months passed and Las Vegas purchased the contract for Boring Company to build a loop for the convention center there. It's amazing how much progress they've made in only, almost, 5 years...even though they haven't really crossed the chasm as a startup yet, IMO.

The loop in Las Vegas needs to be completed and shown working for an entire city before we see real scale, right? or am I thinking too simplistically?
Talking about loops, I have not heard about the hyper loops shooting capsules with people in a long time. Is that approach dead?

update: looks like there is progress and Dubai may see it’s first one implemented by boring co and virgin hyoerloop, and also in Europe there is Zero Emission Superspeed Hyperloop Trains Could Soon Connect Europe’s Cities
 
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CHGolferJim

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Jan 28, 2014
1,468
1,710
Chapel Hill, NC
v10 does look like a very good advacnement, but in the limited amount of beta test videos I have seen online I have already seen close calls where FSD was trying to turn into fast moving oncoming traffic with only a last second disengagement by the driver avoiding a serious crash.

If you think regulators are going to rely on logical thought and statistics when FSD causes a fatality event that is judged to have been impossible for the human monitor to prevent, then I have a bridge to sell you.

It is a very real possibility that when it occurs that Tesla will have to indeed remove the FSD beta program, and move to an internal testing program where testers are employed by Tesla. I don’t think that would be a big detriment to FSD development, with the result being a small relative rise in R&D costs. I’m not saying it’s a definite, but investors shouldn’t be downplaying this outcome.

Regardless of whether or not regulators end up shutting down the public FSD beta program after a FSD fatality, it is going to be a MASSIVE media event and will be one of the most challenging times for the Tesla brand. It will not be viewed as a Tesla driver killing someone, but instead tesla’s software. For most companies, beta testing a product in public that ends up killing people is a bad thing.

I have no intention of selling my shares and am still in accumulation mode, but I am very prepared for the inevitable poopstorm of negative headlines the rapidly approaching FSD beta program will no doubt produce.

I think many are underestimating the required level cost/benefit ratio for FSD in terms of human lives lost for it to be acceptable to regulators. It’s probably higher than 10:1, and maybe closer to 100:1.

Think of it this way: how many deaths from side effects are judged as acceptable when regulators are evaluating new medications/therapies?
Interesting point, clinical trials and entire development programs have been cancelled for billion dollar pharmaceuticals (in terms of both R&D costs and sales potential) because of fatality clusters (<10) in clinical trial populations of tens of thousands.
 
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Skipdd

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Dec 30, 2015
737
993
Silver Spring, MD
It's just a game, and the game is pay to play. Tesla and SpaceX don't pay so they don't get to play. This isn't rocket science (pun intended).
I get your point, but I see it differently. Tesla and SpaceX are playing a different game, and they are winning. I think they are calculating the things they need to do to win, and at the moment, paying for this isn’t in the mix. Took me awhile to get it. Same reason they don’t have a PR department…eventually politicians that are opposed (see that) will get it.
 

MC3OZ

Active Member
Jul 25, 2019
2,515
13,992
QLD Australia
Interesting point, clinical trials and entire development programs have been cancelled for billion dollar pharmaceuticals (in terms of both R&D costs and sales potential) because of fatality clusters (<10) in clinical trial populations of tens of thousands.

They were right to select the initial beta testers very carefully,and it is good to see some caution in expanding the program...

The other interesting factor is, FSD seems to work better in California, that may be a combination of more up to date maps, and better training data..

Everyone trusted enough to be added to the beta program should be responsible, then remain responsible and vigilant at all times.
Not just for the reputation of FSD, but more importantly for their own safety and the safety of others..

I'll be happy to see lots of disappointed customers who press the button then are not awarded the beta, chances are they will get it within a few months...
Perhaps an additional criteria should be no unresolved disengagements in the driver's local area, if they know the FSD beta has problems in a particular environment that are unresolved, they don't need more people testing it in that environment...

Finally I'll be happy to see a situation where the FSD beta declines to take routes that are known to be risky, until the issue is resolved, that is another way of avoiding putting too many people in an environment where issues are unresolved...

When in doubt, adopt a cautious approach, especially for new additions to the program,,.
 

traxila

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Nov 25, 2012
1,912
12,028
NYC
Picked up an M3 today. Wasn’t supposed to get for another month, but they tell me that the 3 day window take it or leave it allows for opportunities. Well, I took it. Best delivery ever. Doing my part for Q3. Car is flawless so far as I can tell. Now I get to find out about the radarless FSD….

Anyway, huzzah and all the best!

9794D077-8AA0-42F7-B47B-DB586D731526.png
 

StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
9,955
82,170
Maple Falls, WA
I think you are underestimating the amount of care Tesla is taking when choosing beta testers. You saw a video with "a last second disengagement by the driver avoiding a serious crash." But the driver did avoid it. There have likely been many such disengagements, but zero accidents so far.

Exactly! As long as it's level 2 the driver has the final say. This reminds me of one of my earliest memories:

I was sitting shotgun as me and dad drove along a rural highway with cars whizzing by in the adjacent lane in the opposite direction. I asked my dad what would happen if one of the opposing drivers twitched his wheel 9 inches in our direction right before we crossed paths. He said, if the timing was right, there would be a head on collision and the driver who did it would probably die (this was before airbags and shoulder belts when cars were death sleds). He added that's why this never happens. I said, "but it could, right?" and he paused before admitting that he supposed it was possible but people don't generally want to die. I asked if we would die too and he admitted there was a good chance of that but emphasized that humans have a strong dose of self-preservation built into us so it's unlikely anyone would suddenly swerve into us. He said it's more likely that someone might fall asleep and drift over the line but that he would see that coming and pick a safe escape path.

My point here is that disaster is always one little mistake away. The fact that FSD Beta might try to turn when you don't want it to is why it still requires driver monitoring with hands on the wheel. Ford is the reckless system because it encourages drivers to take both hands off the wheel which increases reaction time. If you don't have FSD beta you had better be paying attention as well or disaster is 100 times more likely to strike. Those who think humans are not capable of monitoring a Beta FSD system should question why anyone is allowed to drive at all.
 

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