The 2021-09-25 issue of The Economist includes a special report on Germany after Merkel. Some of the content is relevant to Tesla's experience in Germany, and points to possible future challenges and opportunities.
For example
this article on public infrastructure discusses problems that sound oddly familiar:
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Bureaucracy and nimbyism play a role. Companies struggle with a patchwork of planning and building rules. Opponents delay public-infrastructure projects with endless litigation. The number of projects blocked by citizens’ initiatives has doubled since 2000. This is problematic for roads, railways and bridges. But it is a “real hurdle” to climate transformation, says Mr Scheller. The recently revised climate law mandates a reduction in carbon emissions of 65% from 1990 levels by 2030, and their net elimination 15 years later. The share of renewables in electricity production must also reach 65%. And overall demand for electricity for batteries to power electric cars, for heat pumps in buildings, and for “green” hydrogen to help decarbonise industry may rise by a quarter.
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Other states are even more restrictive. Rules to protect endangered species vary from state to state. A few years ago litigation, regulation and complex tendering slowed the construction of wind farms to a crawl, although 2021 has offered flickering hints at a revival. The mismatch between the federal government’s ambitions and the reality of local regulation, says Mr Hrach, will make it impossible for Germany to reach its commitments under the Paris climate agreement.
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Another article discusses the auto industry. There are only two direct mentions of Tesla, but we can all read between the lines.
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The car industry faces the biggest disruption in its history, says Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, head of the Centre Automotive Research in Duisburg. Electrification is just a start. Audi, a vw brand, is trying a car-subscription model aimed at younger drivers, a growing market that could upend revenue models. Software systems require digital skills and fresh ways of working. “We are strong on the hardware side of cars, not so good on data and ai,” says Danyal Bayaz, the Green finance minister of Baden-Württemberg, another big car state. Some fear vw will never catch up with Tesla—or the Chinese firms muscling in. Fully autonomous vehicles, should they arrive, may bring the biggest change yet.
As for the jobs, the scares are overblown, insists Mr Diess (who faces powerful unions and workers’ councils). “Seats remain seats, steel remains steel, wheels remain wheels, brakes remain brakes,” he recently told the German Press Agency. A study by the Boston Consulting Group and the German think-tank Agora Verkehrswende projects no net loss of jobs by 2030, although other surveys are less sanguine. But the headline figure conceals massive churn, as component making gives way to battery production and coding. Almost half the country’s 1.7m car workers will need reskilling, especially the smesuppliers. This, warns the study, will mean “considerable expense” for firms and workers.
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Finally an
article on demographics points out that "...the country needs 400,000 immigrants a year to plug its skilled-labour gap," which may not materialize. This could affect Tesla's business in Germany, if shortages of skilled labor make it more acceptable to reduce employment and increase automation — both inside and outside of factories.
