StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
It's a factory? Ford said they were building a "campus" but, yeah, I guess it makes sense they need some production facilities to go along with all those executive suites. Duh!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
It's a factory? Ford said they were building a "campus" but, yeah, I guess it makes sense they need some production facilities to go along with all those executive suites. Duh!
Emphasis added. A 16 trillion dollar market cap by 2031 is entirely out of the question IMO. Of course I really hope someone shares this and laughs their behind off at me someday.
If only Tesla could manage to solve all the world's problems, on its own and without any help from competition whatsoever, and be priced accordingly...
I have higher price targets through 2025. With AI and robotics he could still be low by the end of the decade
i d
these forecasts become nauseating after a while, just my view
the utube industry needs ever more hype to get viewers,
these forecasts become nauseating after a while, just my view
ZachF
Active Member
More bad news for legacy...
CNN: Automakers' problems are much worse than we thought.
Automakers' problems are much worse than we thought
For a year and a half, a lack of computer chips has been plaguing the auto industry, forcing plants to shut down, delaying auto shipments and sending car prices through the roof. But that's not the only problem automakers face.www.cnn.com
Temporary shutdowns and slowed production rates are hitting auto plants around the globe, cutting into the supply of available cars. AlixPartners now forecasts that supply chain problems will cause automakers to build 7.7 million fewer vehicles globally than they would have if they could get all the parts and raw materials they need. That's up from the 3.9 million vehicle shortfall that had been forecast in May.
7.7m less is probably ~83m units worldwide for 2021.
This means Tesla will probably pass 1% global market share for units this year, and probably close to 2% in revenue terms.
Next year will likely be 1.5% of global unit sales and 3% of revenue!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
SMR claims that's his "bear" case. He doesn't want to reveal his "base" or "bull" case right now because he expects too much derision.
If the FSD beta roll-out goes well, he's probably right at least unto mid-decade (I take the Berlin/Austin/Shanghai expansions as done deals).
But like most analysts I don't think he's put much effort into quantifying contribution from Tesla Energy.
Let's hope he's wrong...
Cheers!
ZachF
Active Member
lol, no
Unless the US goes through some serious double digit inflation, I doubt that very much.
Those projections would put market cap at almost half of the projected American GDP in 2030…
I can see 3-4 trillion by the early 2030s, with $500-600b in revenue and perhaps $100b in profit.
thesmokingman
Active Member
Panic sellers during stock market dips are often married men with children
When markets dip, men who are over 45, or married with kids or have what they call investment experience are more likely to panic sell investments.
www.cnbc.com
Stop the madness!
Tesla Energy with another big project. As battery supply increases, I expect to see a lot more of these over the next several years.
www.teslarati.com
Tesla secures new Megapack project with Arevon, bringing 2021 partnership to 1,000 MWh
Tesla and leading renewable energy company Arevon have signed a new master supply agreement that will supply the Scottsdale, Arizona-based entity with another 2 GW/6 GWh supply of Tesla Megapacks for an ongoing energy storage operation in California. The new contractual agreement brings Arevon’s...
www.teslarati.com
ZachF
Active Member
Look I’m a bull as much as anyone, but complete fantasy numbers do no one any good.
A lot of people have no context for what these numbers mean… It reminds me of Bitcoin Uber-bulls who predict Bitcoin is magically going to be worth many times the market cap of all of the worlds stock and real estate markets put together…
A lot of people have no context for what these numbers mean… It reminds me of Bitcoin Uber-bulls who predict Bitcoin is magically going to be worth many times the market cap of all of the worlds stock and real estate markets put together…
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ZachF
Active Member
Such a study would be almost guaranteed to be politicized and goal-seeked (potentially either way) to the extent that finding actual signal in the noise would be unlikely.
I think it will ramp faster then cool to wind up at around the same. Heads will be spinning at Q4 '21. FOMO will lead to some crazy daily highs, but they won't sustain. Wish I had the stones to play the game.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
It's basically impossible to predict things that far out with any semblance of meaning. Literally anything is possible. Limiting the possible to what has already been done disqualifies a lot of amazing things that have already happened from ever happening. Nobody thinks something incredible is possible until it's done. That's precisely why it's incredible, even when it's already happened. Because no one thought it possible.
The naysayers who say Tesla can't do it all themselves don't seem to understand how capitalism works. It certainly is possible for one company to do it all and that is exactly what will happen if the other companies can't keep up. It's how capitalism works. Yes, it would be faster if all manufacturers had Tesla's capital efficiency today. But they don't. Tesla will just keep doing what their doing, which is scale as fast as possible while simultaneously finding new ways to do things quicker, cheaper, better. If the others can't keep up, they will lose market share. If they continue to not be able to keep up, they will shrink until they have no hope of keeping up.
10 years is too far to be forecasting (as if it's possible to tell how this will play out) but I don't find anything far-fetched about SMR's projections beyond that inconvenient fact. I wouldn't forecast that far out but, if forced to, I would probably be in the same ballpark. The thing is, surprises tend to happen, things no one thought of. Even forecasts more than a year can be wildly inaccurate so, of course, a 10-year forecast is mostly silly.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
... which seems entirely appropriate since by 2030 Tesla will be doing ~25% of its manufacturing in the USA.
Keep in mind that Mazda did have major sharing with Ford while Ford was a major shareholder, including engines, among other things. Toyota has replaced Ford and there is substantial sharing between them for component supply and R&D. Mazda has long innovated in engines, notably the first practical Wankel ( I drove both NSU Ro80 and alter, more successfully Mazda R100) then the only production Miller cycle engines. Their propensity in that respect has been both a huge advantage and a disadvantage financially.
Now, with Toyota we can easily see that competitive BEV's are not a sure thing, nor is it a sure thing that Mazda long continues as a distinct manufacturer.
TL;DR - Way too high, but not because the demand isn't there. It is because Elon wants the transition to happen more quickly, which happens through Robotaxi's operating 24/7 at super competitive rates most likely starting in 2024 with <25k car fleet.
Long version summary - I love SMR and think his analysis is great, but I have a slightly different outlook.
Tesla will solve FSD in 2 years (50% confidence) or 4 years (80% confidence), Tesla has no competition for at least 5 years which could take material market share, Tesla continues to widen the innovation, profit and scale gap of BEVs against all incumbents (legacy ICE), Tesla will make enough batteries to saturate the market with BEVs and grid storage by 2030.
Will Tesla be able to demand higher prices for their products? Hell's yes!
Will Tesla slow the transition down by raising prices? Most likely
Could Tesla share/license their tech to other companies and make profit? Totally
But wouldn't that require engineering resources? Totally
So, would that speed up the transition? Probably not
Wait, so what speeds it up the most? Robotaxi's which drive all-the-time, 24/7, stopping only to supercharge, at super competitive rates, so there is no question to drive/ride sustainably.
Ok, so when do we see that? Arithmetically increasing percentage chance peaking in 2024 as the levers of demand, <25k car, battery BOM cost, battery throughput...etc, continue to effectively reach 1 disengagement every 1 billion miles.
What about the AI bot? With my background in AI and mechanical engineering, I think there is <10% chance of a product prior to 2023 to purchase increasing to 80% chance by 2028. The AI, nor the battery is the bottleneck, it is the creation of the ultra small, lightweight pieces of aluminum, carbon fiber, sensors, servos...etc that will take that much time to put into production. That tech just doesn't exist yet in production (happy to be wrong here though!). *When* it goes into production we'll see super small volumes as I would expect yields to be low and prices to be super high. I'd expect the first bot to be $100k to $200k with low margins (still super cool though) and then into mass production around 2031 with higher margins, but I don't see it making the stock price go as high as SMR predicts. I think the bot will have a ridiculous % of it's parts that move against other parts, stacked tolerances out the wazoo which is super hard to productionize.
This drives the stock price to $4k to $8k in 2031 which is think is applicable for a company that makes >50% of the worlds cars, >75% of the worlds grid storage and 40% of the worlds consumer miles driven.
I am kidding about what? I asked whether the 300% + earnings growth mentioned relates to the same period as the annualised P/E. Obviously, you cannot use historic growth and combine it with future P/E to get a PEG. I am very happy if earnings continue to grow with 300 percent for many years but although I agree there is still room for margin growth ahead based on the factors you mention, I don't see it as continuing for ever. Also looking at Tesla's mission, is not about building the greatest cash cow so I think they may prefer to spend to grow if there is a choice. At some point, competition will also increase.
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