thesmokingman
Active Member
Tesla, Lucid, Fisker are down yet Ford and GM is up. 
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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- elon is an ass
Self Driving competitors: "Hey, that folding to the moon worked in the simulator just fine. Who needs edges, we just removed them and it folds super easy."you think he’s making fun, maybe he’s just saying what will happen!/s
Tesla, Lucid, Fisker are down yet Ford and GM is up.
Ford is building a new factory over the next four years, it's time to buy!
thesmokingman
Active Member
And GM is embroiled in a massive ev recall. Ford is embroiled in a big ev recall. Time to buy!Ford is building a new factory over the next four years, it's time to buy!
Tesla, Lucid, Fisker are down yet Ford and GM is up.
Ford's Q3 earnings are going to be a spectacular dumpster fire....I don't mind seeing Wall St about to get burned by it
larmor
Active Member
Better to buy now before (IF) there is an actual ford factory for EVs.Ford is building a new factory over the next four years, it's time to buy!
What margins would you expect from robotaxis with...
- manufacturing cost roughly half current levels, due to falling battery costs, rising manufacturing efficiencies, and soaring economies of scale
- working life of a million miles
- maintenance costs very low (tires, wipers, cleaning, data-driven insurance)
- fuel cost near zero if powered with 30-year solar photovoltaics and LFP storage batteries
Tesla's margins, like their market share, are on an S-curve headed for 100%.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
The size of the guest list for Berlin is already beyond expectation:
Tesla applies for waiver to increase Giga Berlin County Fair guest limit to 9,000 people - Drive Tesla Canada
Don’t bash it, at least they have something to recall unlike many others
Going back in time: Tesla Investor Discussions in April 2012, part of a post from someone on TMC:
"My concerns are guided by a lack of information about Tesla as well as my stomach telling me that I am missing something. The phrase, "short sellers typically do more research then longs" comes to mind. In truth, it wouldn't surprise me if the market corrects tremendously in the coming months, leading to everything getting a 20-40% haircut based on some political/economic problem. I believe in Tesla, but I really wish I could find some answers to questions that leave me a bit worried. 1) What happens if Elon leaves the company/is forced to leave for reasons out of his control? 2) What happens if the Model S doesn't get a 5 Star Rating? 3) How do car companies convince people to adjust their garages to be able to accommodate plugging in their cars? 4) How do people that live in big cities that don't have access to private parking spaces/ garages purchase an EV? A friend of mine that recently spoke to better place mentioned currently their services are only being offered to people with private parking spaces. 5) Why can't Nissan/Mercedes /other car companies make Tesla obsolete? If Tesla beats them to the road with the Model S (Which is seeming very likely), will they be able to beat them with the Bluestar? If prices really do come down that much, won't any car manufacturer be able to produce a 20-30k EV? If Tesla has success, what's to stop GM/Ford, Mercedes/etc from devoting 3-4billion into development of more efficient systems? 6) Will Tesla be able to defend their patents? 7) How will trade ins work for EVs?"
Nice to read the questions the poster struggled with at that time.
When reading, everybody here will have answers popping up in their mind, I am sure!
"My concerns are guided by a lack of information about Tesla as well as my stomach telling me that I am missing something. The phrase, "short sellers typically do more research then longs" comes to mind. In truth, it wouldn't surprise me if the market corrects tremendously in the coming months, leading to everything getting a 20-40% haircut based on some political/economic problem. I believe in Tesla, but I really wish I could find some answers to questions that leave me a bit worried. 1) What happens if Elon leaves the company/is forced to leave for reasons out of his control? 2) What happens if the Model S doesn't get a 5 Star Rating? 3) How do car companies convince people to adjust their garages to be able to accommodate plugging in their cars? 4) How do people that live in big cities that don't have access to private parking spaces/ garages purchase an EV? A friend of mine that recently spoke to better place mentioned currently their services are only being offered to people with private parking spaces. 5) Why can't Nissan/Mercedes /other car companies make Tesla obsolete? If Tesla beats them to the road with the Model S (Which is seeming very likely), will they be able to beat them with the Bluestar? If prices really do come down that much, won't any car manufacturer be able to produce a 20-30k EV? If Tesla has success, what's to stop GM/Ford, Mercedes/etc from devoting 3-4billion into development of more efficient systems? 6) Will Tesla be able to defend their patents? 7) How will trade ins work for EVs?"
Nice to read the questions the poster struggled with at that time.
When reading, everybody here will have answers popping up in their mind, I am sure!
I heard you should be greedy when others are fearful. Plus Ford and gm are trading at $14 and $53 compared to teslas $780.
/S
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
These aren't YOLO's, just trying capture a very likely to reverse MMD with leverage.You just can't quit the YOLOs can you?
My 10/8 $800s could be considered YOLO's I guess, but they were also only bought when they hit ridiculously low prices of like $3-5 a while back.
The hope and plan is to take these actions very infrequently and focus on just selling call/put spreads. I have a put spread order in as we speak! With any luck I didn't set it up wrong.
thesmokingman
Active Member
Actually they're just about all recalled.
Porsche recalls 43,000 Taycan EVs over sudden power loss
Porsche has recalled 43,000 Taycan EVs over a sudden power loss issue that requires a software update.
www.engadget.com
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Don’t park your Hyundai Kona EV inside because it could catch fire
Hyundai is recalling 82,000 electric vehicles.
www.theverge.com
Krugerrand
Meow
Fair point, except -
Tell me, how far ahead is Tesla’s current market valuation than Elon and the board imagined it would be?
Tell me, is Tesla doing now what Elon thought it would be doing at this point? Don’t rush that answer. Think about it carefully. Hint #1: He expected OEMs to pick up the ball and run with it YEARS ago. Those OEMs are still lacing up their shoes and deciding if they even want to play.
The man is a genius and he can imagine a world where rockets are reusable, regular people go to space, sustainable transportation and energy is the norm, humans integrate with AI, and where the bush tribes of Australia and the Amazon tribes can have high speed Internet. But he’s always under estimated the capacity of people and companies to be stupid, selfish, crooked and evil.
This doesn’t turn out the way you think; the way most think. It doesn’t even turn out like Elon thinks, anymore than it already has.
The future market cap evaluations appear nutty and by today’s standards they are nutty. But look around, we live in nutty times. I’ve been wearing a bloody mask to grocery shop for TWO YEARS with no end in sight. Some regular joe blow named Chris, literally the most unremarkable guy next door, just orbited earth. I’ve got faster Internet on a mountain in the middle of nowhere than 100 miles in all directions. Tesla owns its entire business in China. Donald Trump was POTUS. The nutty list goes on and on.
I repeat; this doesn’t end the way you or Elon thinks it does. It’s going to get a whole lot elephant nuttier.
I think 4 DTE calls are definitely YOLOs. But I wish you well with them don't get me wrong!These aren't YOLO's, just trying capture a very likely to reverse MMD with leverage.
My 10/8 $800s could be considered YOLO's I guess, but they were also only bought when they hit ridiculously low prices of like $3-5 a while back.
The hope and plan is to take these actions very infrequently and focus on just selling call/put spreads. I have a put spread order in as we speak! With any luck I didn't set it up wrong.
We should start seeing FSD subscription revenue numbers hitting financials from Q4.
Essentially, market will be forced to value FSD in their models.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Premise 1: A million-mile Tesla robotaxi would have a net present value of $200k, as Tesla conservatively estimated on 2019 Autonomy Day. This is basically $0.30/mile profit with some discounting for time-value of money.
Premise 2: Tesla will be producing approximately 20 million of them annually by 2031.
(20 million robotaxis/year) * ($200k / robotaxi) = $4 Trillion in annual economic value add, just from building and operating Tesla network. This would make SMR's predictions of roughly $20T market cap in 2031 a major underestimate, as that Price-EBIT ratio of 5 would imply a discount rate of about 20%. And that's not even counting valuation for Tesla's other business lines...
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
It's just longer odds with higher return. Give me the right odds to hit a two-outer in poker, I'll do it all day long. The odds could be up for debate obviously, but I'm comfortable with just "more likely than not" in my well-seasoned TSLA head.
Now Elon also chimed in on China power crunch concern.
I watched about 6 YouTube videos and read similar number of mass media news articles. Tl;dr - problem stems from the government regulation mandates a low electricity rate but not the coal price requires to produce that electricity which recently went up 4 folds. This causes power shutdowns to avoid bankruptcy. Together with China banning Australian coal suddenly when some of China power plants are only able to operate efficiently with that variety.
China has been trying to cut coal consumption to meet environmental mandates.
Here is the best of the YouTubes I watched.
I watched about 6 YouTube videos and read similar number of mass media news articles. Tl;dr - problem stems from the government regulation mandates a low electricity rate but not the coal price requires to produce that electricity which recently went up 4 folds. This causes power shutdowns to avoid bankruptcy. Together with China banning Australian coal suddenly when some of China power plants are only able to operate efficiently with that variety.
China has been trying to cut coal consumption to meet environmental mandates.
Here is the best of the YouTubes I watched.
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