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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

MC3OZ

Active Member
Jul 25, 2019
2,589
14,523
QLD Australia
Was basically the "inside story" of Elon and SpaceX, just mind-blowing to see it all laid out from 2008 to now.

To circle back on everyone's valuation conversations the last couple days.....if you watch this PBS special and can't see how Energy is gonna take Tesla to $10T, you're blind. In my opinion. He's just way way way too fast.

Exciting times.

For Tesla energy I think the following is possible:-

Tesla Lithium extraction from clay + iron and phosphate = lots of LFP batteries for grid energy storage.
+ CATL prismatic = even more batteries for grid energy storage...

I still think Tesla Lithium extraction from clay, and Tesla 4680 LFP battery production, will be operational in time to make a big difference...

LFP batteries for grid energy storage are a great quick fix...

Then when we look at projects like Suncable, the proposal is for 36-42 GWh of energy storage batteries

Australia-Asia PowerLink | Large Scale Renewable Energy - Sun Cable

Why so many batteries? The HVDC link is intended to be 3.2 GW and my estimate was the link may cost around $12 Billion AUD.
The batteries are needed to ensure that expensive link operates at close to full capacity most of the time

And there are more of these projects being planned, typically with lots of batteries...
 

woodisgood

Slightly faster than 5mph
Jul 26, 2018
2,734
15,426
San Francisco
My reading is that his old thesis was heavily focused on Tesla energy, his latest comment said that he underestimated the growth of EVs and that Tesla would be busy enough (i.e. demand) to just focus on cars.

Ah I see. So he feels like Tesla Energy will remain a hobby instead of blossoming into the transformative utility-scale force around the world he saw previously.
I suppose the slower-than-ideal solar roof ramp and some of Elon’s comments could support that notion - or at least that it’s a longer way off than previously thought.

I don’t agree but I can see how he might get there.
 

Krugerrand

Enough of the 🐩, back to 🐈‍⬛
Jul 13, 2012
11,728
68,781
Tesla friendly place
I started looking at the TSLA chart, trying to see how often TSLA dropped more than 10% in a week. The biggest thing I think I see, which may be more helpful for weekly trading, is that TSLA never went from near the top of the upper BB (like now), to breaking out the bottom in a short span. As far as I can tell, falls out the bottom are always proceeded by some sideways trading in the lower half of the BB first. Anyone with better tools see anything different?
It has. The only tool I use is my memory so there may be some associated rust involved in the exact numbers.

One particular time that I remember like it was yesterday was when TSLA dropped 50% of its value during The OMG Brexit drama. It literally went from $280 to $140 in a few days and people lost their butter tarts. The SP did recovery fairly quickly but not as quickly as it plummeted. It dropped like a rock and rose like a tide taking its sweet time.
 

Krugerrand

Enough of the 🐩, back to 🐈‍⬛
Jul 13, 2012
11,728
68,781
Tesla friendly place
My impression of him was that he seemed to understand/connect with Tesla in that beyond-the-business sort of way that many of us do. I’d be just as curious if you (or Stealth, or Krug, or FrankSG, or many others here with high conviction) suddenly changed their thesis.

N.B. “Thesis” to me doesn’t imply timing or macro events or personal events (eg “stock got overheated,” “market going to crash,” or “had to buy a house”) but rather a long-term outlook based on the company’s fundamentals, trajectory, projected execution, future areas for growth, etc. Maybe that’s where I’m getting caught up.
On the record for posterity: My thesis has not changed; family empire is where it ends. If none of the boys want to pursue their dad’s goals then I’ll have to rethink. Odds are in my favor. So far I’ve got six shots at it and I think I’ll have a few more before all is said and done.
 

BornToFly

Active Member
Supporting Member
May 8, 2013
2,243
17,543
43,000 feet
It has. The only tool I use is my memory so there may be some associated rust involved in the exact numbers.

One particular time that I remember like it was yesterday was when TSLA dropped 50% of its value during The OMG Brexit drama. It literally went from $280 to $140 in a few days and people lost their butter tarts. The SP did recovery fairly quickly but not as quickly as it plummeted. It dropped like a rock and rose like a tide taking its sweet time.
It has certainly dropped more than 10% many times, and even more than that in one weeks time before (although I think the drop you mention took more than a few days). But I can't find a steady climb near the Upper BB (like now) to out the bottom in a week. (This is highly relevant for those of us selling Put options and trying to decide how to play next week).
 

BornToFly

Active Member
Supporting Member
May 8, 2013
2,243
17,543
43,000 feet
It has certainly dropped more than 10% many times, and even more than that in one weeks time before (although I think the drop you mention took more than a few days). But I can't find a steady climb near the Upper BB (like now) to out the bottom in a week. (This is highly relevant for those of us selling Put options and trying to decide how to play next week).
I found it. 8/31/2020. Dropped around 30% in one week. However, the BBs were much wider apart than now, so it dropped that far without coming out the bottom. More than 30% price difference between upper and lower, while now the gap is less than 10%.
 

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Krugerrand

Enough of the 🐩, back to 🐈‍⬛
Jul 13, 2012
11,728
68,781
Tesla friendly place
It has certainly dropped more than 10% many times, and even more than that in one weeks time before (although I think the drop you mention took more than a few days). But I can't find a steady climb near the Upper BB (like now) to out the bottom in a week. (This is highly relevant for those of us selling Put options and trying to decide how to play next week).
I don’t know how close to the upper baked beans (nor do I even know what it means to sell Puts) it was back then but $280 at the time was very near ATH.

My investment advice remains the same as it has since before Elon Time; buy with impunity and hold. Beyond that you’re on your own and there’s no chance I’ll help with any clean up in the blue light special aisle should the puts go awry. Live long and prosper, just not on my 🏔.
 

Skipdd

Member
Supporting Member
Dec 30, 2015
770
1,283
Silver Spring, MD
Tomorrow's healine: Ford and GM scrap their EV programs b/c of chip shortage, sars and hurracaine Willma.

Cramer has been a paid clown and a tool. People still bringing him up need a good night sleep.

Got really excited when I saw that line. I’m always on the look-out for improving my ability to get a good night’s sleep🤕. Looking at his video’s won’t be an improvement over melatonin. Admission - I do read this forum, and even try to read The Wheel thread. That usually does it.
 

AudubonB

One can NOT induce accuracy with precision!
Mar 24, 2013
8,497
32,566
And - PERHAPS - my last post on SPACs.

I was very much in the forefront - of the investment community, of members of this community, of the news community specializing in Wall Street - in disparaging SPACs. Below read my two prior posts regarding same - and their posting dates:

(Sept. 10, 2019): The only SPAC I ever have invested in - personally, that’s coming hard on to a half-century; familially, that would be generations - is C. Palihapatiya’s first foray in this genre. That was called “IPOA” and as all should know since has morphed into Virgin Galactic, "SPCE".

I did this with significant trepidation, as the sole selling point was Mr P’s business acumen and his unparalleled access to much of Silicon Valley’s movers and shakers. So far, the investment has worked out for me as a reasonable buffer to our immense TSLA holdings.

Regardless, I am using this post to disparage SPACs and to warn all not to use them. Not only is Black Hole Investing (my term) fiduciarily unjustifiable in of itself, the entire structure is rife with opportunities for mischievous parties to separate investors from their funds, all without having to thread the needle of corporate disclosures, regulatory oversight and all the hard-nosed questions the investment community will throw at would-be raisers of capital during investment roadshows.

Of all the bad ideas that have come to the investment world in recent decades, SPACs are at the pinnacle of what should be made illegal.

Advice.
And:
And again it’s time to fire up the Look-Back-in-Time Machine. This time, though, it’s not so far back - only to last September.

But first, today has been the 2nd anniversary of that fateful 17 April 2019 presentation by unconvicted fraudster Trevor Milton, and his Nikola Truck Reveal in Scottsdale AZ.

How lucky I was to snag an invite! How amazed I was to find a new champion Goalpost Mover! Was it an electric truck? Was it hydrogen? A Hybrid? A CNG? Were there natural gas fields owned that would....errr, do just what, exactly? And what about the electric SUVs zipping around the obstacle course outside (not even manufactured by Nikola, by the way).

so, into the Look Back machine, and my post of 21 September. Not from this specific thread, but from the Nikola sub thread:


The one large caution I hope all can consider is that this imbroglio does not further diminish, delay and distract the Big Picture, which is to end the Ice Age. Unfortunately, I’m not seeing a lot that suggests otherwise.

This by no means suggests I find it unfortunate Mr Milton has been exposed. Far from it. But that he was able to perpetrate this I lay 100% of the fault upon those who did NOT perform their own due diligence: the investment community, the investment bankers, the associated firms like Bosch, GM, Iveco and so forth, the news outlets - there is an awful lot of blame to go around and there are a lot of places to lay it.


I also reiterate that we now have Exhibit A - to the effect that no B, C or D need be hauled out - as to why Special Purpose Acquisition Companies, aka SPACs, are a terrible idea and should be outlawed. This is notwithstanding Mr Palihapitiya’s efforts and successes and the gains I have incurred through his IPOA, and I also expect I would be trounced in a one-on-one with him were we to debate this issue (although I’d still be right..... ;)). Yes: one can do good and do well with a SPAC. But it is a vessel custom-made to enable and empower a fraudster and there are too many such out there.


Oh - did you think that this post was about Nikola? No. My distaste for SPACs now has come front and center to the likes of the various Jim Cramers of the airwaves, to Wall St investment banks...and to Congress and the SEC.
 

willow_hiller

Active Member
Apr 3, 2019
3,288
17,111
Maryland
The best piece so far on Elon and his work. A lot of people will have their minds changed about why Elon is doing what he’s doing.

PBS also recently had Kara Swisher (NYT tech journalist) on their "Brief but Spectacular" mini-series yesterday. I was pleasantly surprised she mentioned that she went way back with Elon, and mentioned he's one of the few big minds working on big problems (as most big minds in Silicon Valley are working on small problems now):

 

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