Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

So what happens if they’re good? We stay where we’re at for the rest of the year or more or go up for a week then back to 700? Or up and retest the ATH?

My personal gut feeling is the MM's will do their best to hold TSLA down over the next few months, and we'll only see a max of 850 until Q4 happens. After Q4 rolls itself in like a hurricane, with super high production rates and out of this world profits, only THEN will the MM's lose complete control and we run over 1000 by the end of Janurary 2022.

I expect Q3 to be all kinds of awesome and the best quarter ever for Tesla, but I don't think it will be enough quite yet to wrest control from the MM's. My hunch is that happens after Q4 2021 comes in.

 

[MarcoRP]

First Superchargers in Africa opened today

Tesla Superchargers in Morocco | Tesla

Schedule a Tesla test drive at a time and date that is convenient for you.

www.tesla.com

 

[BornToFly]

So what happens if they’re good? We stay where we’re at for the rest of the year or more or go up for a week then back to 700? Or up and retest the ATH?

My crystal ball is similar to Mengy's. My complete guess is 800-850 next week if the numbers are 235-250k. Then maybe a slight pullback before 850+ into the ER report (maybe AH), followed by another pullback (hopefully staying in the 800s) until we are close to the Q4 delivery numbers released Jan 2 with maybe 900+ end of December. Over 1,000 sometime next year. (Assuming no major Macro issues). I would not recommend trading based off my crystal ball, it's broken most of the time....

 

[Thekiwi]

Yeah they had ~1500 cars to deliver in Sept and spent 2/3rds of the month in L4 lockdown unable to do anything!

Apparently supplies of new licence plates ran out :O

Do you know for sure on that approximate 1500 number? That would imply ~420 cars could not be delivered by quarter end and have been added to Tesla‘s end of quarter inventory figure.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So what happens if they’re good? We stay where we’re at for the rest of the year or more or go up for a week then back to 700? Or up and retest the ATH?

P&D numbers won't move the stock that much. It's the Q3 financial results that traders will be positioning themselves for. I expect Earnings perhaps on Mon, Oct 25th after-hrs?

 

[Paul_SF]

Once the media has established a narrative, it's extremely difficult to turn it around because the media is the business of selling itself as always right about everything so admitting you're wrong is embarrassing and potentially fatal. The media long ago established the narrative that Tesla is doomed to fail, Elon is a crackpot and a fraud, EV's will never supplant dino exploders, etc. They cannot suddenly turn around and say otherwise because that is tantamount to suicide in their own eyes.

How can one commit suicide when they are already dead? They are the walking dead and they just collect the paychecks. They know it.

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1443707466072551430

 

[RobDickinson]

Do you know for sure on that approximate 1500 number? That would imply ~420 cars could not be delivered by quarter end and have been added to Tesla‘s end of quarter inventory figure.

I dont think theres any official numbers outside of what people have been told by tesla sales reps, they had 1500 cars to deliver in Sept and only managed 1050, you can see car parks full of undelivered cars in Auckland, welly and chc.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

First Superchargers in Africa opened today

Tesla Superchargers in Morocco | Tesla

Schedule a Tesla test drive at a time and date that is convenient for you.

www.tesla.com

View attachment 716462

Finally, I can charge my Tesla in Casablanca! Here's looking at you, kid!

The famous 1942 movie was not filmed in Casablanca, on account of there being a World War going on at the time. Today, Casablanca is the largest city in Morocco and it's primary economic center.

 

[nativewolf]

Haha I had it on in the background and saw the same segment.

BTW Tim's new logic is that deliveries DO NOT matter anymore.....the entire valuation of Tesla is based on tech/batteries

I wonder if he knows Tesla controls most of the battery supply out there.....

Ummm Tesla does not control that much. They contracted for a decent portion, about 40% but that % is constantly decreasing. Even then much of it is not perfectly stable, they could lose that. The internal 4680 production is definitely needed to act as leverage.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

My personal gut feeling is the MM's will do their best to hold TSLA down over the next few months, and we'll only see a max of 850 until Q4 happens. After Q4 rolls itself in like a hurricane, with super high production rates and out of this world profits, only THEN will the MM's lose complete control and we run over 1000 by the end of Janurary 2022.

I expect Q3 to be all kinds of awesome and the best quarter ever for Tesla, but I don't think it will be enough quite yet to wrest control from the MM's. My hunch is that happens after Q4 2021 comes in.

That's pretty much exactly my thinking. And it makes sense not off our traditional random valuations, but simple PE ratio, growth, and growth projections.

And that's why I think this obvious scenario won't happen. When everything is lined up and everyone agrees 9n the next logical move, it usually doesn't happen. Wall St and MM's actually prefer it that way.

If SP is tracking too closely with logical valuations, then volatility is less profitable for these clowns. I think we go to $850 after 3Q then the lid blows off.

Maybe another split or something precipitates, but I just don't see us rationally drifting to a forward looking PE of 90 and 70-100% growth guidance for 2022.

 

[nativewolf]

Didn’t appreciate how chummy GoJo appeared with this person on Twitter. Makes me suspicious, as we know overestimation is a recent favorite strategy of his.

That nimwit has exactly zero impact on Tesla nor will this guy reporting on China numbers. He's going to report on it, its out there, TMC does not own or influence blocking on twitter so blocking information posted by this guy would be the height of idiocy. How can it possibly help the TMC community to block information related to Tesla, pro or con when it is widely disseminated. To propose blocking information available throughout the internet is beyond idiocy. I'm shocked that some believe this is helpful for the mission of sustainability or the financial health of Tesla. But again when some here feel it is fine to question German political behavior but wrong to question Chinese political behavior maybe I should not be surprised.

 

[joh01652]

P&D numbers won't move the stock that much. It's the Q3 financial results that traders will be positioning themselves for. I expect Earnings perhaps on Mon, Oct 25th after-hrs?

My Schwab brokerage says Oct 20: Earnings will tentatively be announced 10/20/2021. With 21 analysts covering TSLA, the consensus EPS estimate is $1.43, and the high and low estimates are $1.92 and $0.95, respectively. Expected Timing: After close

Nasdaq also says tentatively Oct 20: Tesla, Inc. is estimated to report earnings on 10/20/2021. The upcoming earnings date is derived from an algorithm based on a company's historical reporting dates. Our vendor, Zacks Investment Research, might revise this date in the future, once the company announces the actual earnings date. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 6 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.93. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $0.27.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/earnings

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Ummm Tesla does not control that much. They contracted for a decent portion, about 40% but that % is constantly decreasing. Even then much of it is not perfectly stable, they could lose that. The internal 4680 production is definitely needed to act as leverage.

I disagree. Tesla's contracts with battery suppliers is very stable and the only reason their % is decreasing is because China is cranking out low end batteries for sub-par EV's. Tesla's 4680 battery road map is in addition to their contractual battery supply. There's a reason no other legacy auto maker is cranking out the volume Tesla is and that disparity is going to grow over 2022 and 2023, not shrink.

 

[Artful Dodger]

My Schwab brokerage says Oct 20: Earnings will tentatively be announced 10/20/2021. With 21 analysts covering TSLA, the consensus EPS estimate is $1.43, and the high and low estimates are $1.92 and $0.95, respectively. Expected Timing: After close

Nasdaq also says tentatively Oct 20: Tesla, Inc. is estimated to report earnings on 10/20/2021. The upcoming earnings date is derived from an algorithm based on a company's historical reporting dates. Our vendor, Zacks Investment Research, might revise this date in the future, once the company announces the actual earnings date. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 6 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.93. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $0.27.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/earnings

Could be, but last 2 Earnings Calls have been the 4th Monday, instead of the previously common 3rd Wednesday. And now, we also don't expect Elon on the Conference Call so lots of changes.

I don't see this as relevant for any investor that's not betting big on Options which expire on the 3rd Friday of October. For this reason alone, I think it was a good move this year to hold the conference calls after that's done. Let the speculators swing, I say.

Cheers!

 

[AimStellar]

 

[Nolimits]

Hoping see more tesla energy deals in q4!

 

[mltv]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1443702728681680911

 

[Mokuzai]

That is a cool chart. I, for one, would like to see a version that is animated across the years. Anyone up to do that please? @Mokuzai?

Show me the data and sure, those charts are pretty easy to make. There are similar things to this already out there but most stop at 2019 and don't go back very far. Getting access to the data can be costly though.

 

[Todd Burch]

That's capping/spoofing in action. Very common manipulation method to cap any rise in share price

Yes, I know--I'm asking if we see as much of it in other stocks, or if TSLA has significantly more of it for some reason.