The Accountant
Active Member
The 251k is Rob's number for Production. His Delivery number is 247k. Still awesome.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
The 251k is Rob's number for Production. His Delivery number is 247k. Still awesome.
This exciting video stimulated some thoughts:
1) We know Elon is worried that unfriendly AI could destroy humanity. He just said in the CodeCon interview that AI is the second greatest threat after population collapse.
2) When Elon worries about a risk, he takes action to reduce it. For example, he started OpenAI and Neuralink for the stated purpose of reducing the danger of unfriendly AI.
3) The stated purpose of Tesla's AI Day was to recruit the best AI engineers in the world. Anecdotal evidence claimed by the above video suggests this plan is working.
4) If the best engineers, and a worthy corporate mission, attract more top engineers (as the video claims), then we can expect Tesla to become the world leader in AI research and development, because...
5) Tesla has a new, expanded mission not yet appreciated by the general public. In addition to accelerating the transition to sustainable energy, Tesla is now accelerating the creation of friendly Artificial General Intelligence (also known as The Singularity).
6) Tesla is building Dojo and the Bot not only to make more and better cars and energy systems. Elon has harnessed the extraordinary resources of his companies to tackle what he sees as the second greatest threat to humanity.
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RobDickinson
Active Member
Q3 could be as high as 255k imo, they have extra stock to deliver etc, probably wont be.. but.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Troy has been wrong many times too. So are we going to censor him too? Forecasting is always dicey. You can’t censor them because they are wrong sometimes ( I am no fan of Troy. But he has the right to put wrong predictions out there)
RobDickinson
Active Member
Everybody is always wrong, just by different numbers.
Troy does have a good track record but that doesnt mean he's right this time
Troy does have a good track record but that doesnt mean he's right this time
(Re-posted from a deleted post due to error)
Adapting a chart I created a few weeks/month ago, here's what putting in 235k deliveries (Troy's estimate) shows in accordance with today's end of quarter share price. This doesn't take into account what Tesla was able to do with Model S Plaid this quarter.
Adapting a chart I created a few weeks/month ago, here's what putting in 235k deliveries (Troy's estimate) shows in accordance with today's end of quarter share price. This doesn't take into account what Tesla was able to do with Model S Plaid this quarter.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Hilarious and wonderful backdrop to Tesla's contestant strong of 85% growth and expansion.
www.cnbc.com
U.S. auto sales forecast to plummet in third quarter as chip shortage plagues industry
Industry forecasters predict vehicle sales from July through September were less than 3.4 million, down between 13% and 14% from a year earlier.
www.cnbc.com
Just a car company. /s
That’s gotta hurt. But it’s gonna hurt a lot more in a couple of years when they look back wistfully at this Q being a high water markHilarious and wonderful backdrop to Tesla's contestant strong of 85% growth and expansion.
U.S. auto sales forecast to plummet in third quarter as chip shortage plagues industry
Industry forecasters predict vehicle sales from July through September were less than 3.4 million, down between 13% and 14% from a year earlier.
The IV in the option Market is highest for 29th expiration. 22nd and Nov have lower IV compared to the 29th.Could be, but last 2 Earnings Calls have been the 4th Monday, instead of the previously common 3rd Wednesday. And now, we also don't expect Elon on the Conference Call so lots of changes.
I don't see this as relevant for any investor that's not betting big on Options which expire on the 3rd Friday of October. For this reason alone, I think it was a good move this year to hold the conference calls after that's done. Let the speculators swing, I say.
Cheers!
I personally think 25th as well.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Looking back at @The Accountant 's scenarios chart from Sept 13 I see Rob Maurer's 247k estimate gives an estimated EPS of approximately $2.09..
teslamotorsclub.com
Near-future quarterly financial projections
I saw a post about salaries in Giga Berlin. Those salaries seemed extremely high for manufacturing jobs, and they didn't even include stock based compensation. I assume the situation is similar in Fremont. We don't know exactly which factory and region is making profits but I started to think...
teslamotorsclub.com
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I kinda sorta do!
A friend just asked me about this yesterday.
I imagine someone has even better info than I- this is just skimmed from some SEC filings and a few other places.
Elon got some options in 2009- but those had an expiration of 2016 so I imagine they're long since exercised (but didn't check).
He got no additional options grants in 2010 or 2011.
In 2012 he got his first tranched plan where he had to hit specific economic and operational goals... (most around various stages of X and 3 production, plus a few total # of cars made ones and one or two others). The plan had 10 tranches.
He vested 9 out of 10... (10 requires 30% gross profit for 4 straight quarters and the plan expires in 2022 so unlikely he'll earn that one).
Anyway, 10 year expiration on the grant.. which is 2022... so I expect these are the ones he's talking about needing to exercise real soon now.
Each tranche being for 1/10th of the total grant... which was 5,274,901 shares of Tesla’s common stock at an exercise price of $31.17 per share (pre-split #s)
At the time of the grant getting all 10 tranches would've been 5% of existing shares of the company.
He's also got the 2018 plan of course, which he's vested a bunch of tranches on, but he's got years before he's up against expiration on those.
So anyway, post-split the 2012 grant total is 26,374,505 shares... 90% of of which (since he hasn't earned tranche 10) is 23,737,054 shares. The post-split strike would be $6.23 a share.
At todays closing price if he exercised all available options from the 2012 plan those 23.7 mil shares would be worth roughly 18.4 billion dollars. And using the 53% overall tax rate he cited he'd owe roughly 9.76 billion in taxes.
Assuming he's going to use exercised shares to cover the taxes he'd need to sell (again using todays close) about 12,580,638 of the shares...unsurprisingly about 53% of em
Now- as to the date... that's a bit odd.
The 2012 grant was August 2012. With a 10 year grant term.
So in theory he ought to have until August 2022 to exercise these.
There might be tax reasons for him to do it in 2021 though.
Edit- I didn't actually deduct the exercise cost basis when running the tax owed, it's tiny, but not nothing... considering that instead of owing taxes on 18.4 billion in income it'd only be on like 18.25 billion
... AFAIK these are non-qualified stock options so he'd have to report the difference between the exercise price and fair market price as income, even if he does not plan to sell the shares at the time... (with the upside of giving him a new basis cost at the fair market price on the new shares).
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FORD CEO: "I respect what Tesla has done. In fact, I think Tesla has been one of the most important and positive thing that has happened in our industry."
Ford CEO is bullish AF for Tesla Q3 results.
“…what Tesla has done.” Should be ”what Tesla is doing”. He makes it sound like Tesla's role is over - thank you very much. The future is not going to be kind to these guys.
FORD CEO: "I respect what Tesla has done. In fact, I think Tesla has been one of the most important and positive thing that has happened in our industry."
Ford CEO is bullish AF for Tesla Q3 results.
We should just let Ford have their last fleeting moments of relevancy. They're literally 4 quarters away from being completely irrelevant. Q4 2022 is pretty much Thor's Hammer coming down on legacy auto
RobDickinson
Active Member
I still dont know how legacy is planning to manage the transition.
Vehicle costs & profits are all down to volume, you match parts/supplies to production to sales, get that wrong by 20%+ and your screwed.
What do they do when they have 30-40% EV sales and EVs are cheaper by every metric and no one is buying their ICE cars?
Vehicle costs & profits are all down to volume, you match parts/supplies to production to sales, get that wrong by 20%+ and your screwed.
What do they do when they have 30-40% EV sales and EVs are cheaper by every metric and no one is buying their ICE cars?
Great, would be nice to get a few more done so we can have a real Cape-to-Cape expedition from Cape of Good Hope (South Africa) to Nordkap (Norway) in a Cybertruck. That would be epic!First Superchargers in Africa opened today
Tesla Superchargers in Morocco | Tesla
Schedule a Tesla test drive at a time and date that is convenient for you.www.tesla.com
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2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
The first one to develop a working partnership with Tesla might have a slim chance.
ZachF
Active Member
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