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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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You expect Tesla and SpaceX to solve all the worlds problems? Putting a giant dent in climate change and making our species multi planetary while also making a profit is not enough?

Mod: And this is why such postings do not belong here
Hi Mod,

Are such postings not allowed b/c they can be misunderstood? My comment isn't about fixing all the world's problems.

This thread isn't just about the very short term, is it? I thought we merged the general and short term threads months ago.

I've been quite a long term investor, having put 98+% of my wealth and savings into TSLA since 2012. When I made this decision, we could start a discussion and not shut it down simply b/c the topic was a tiny-bit controversial or b/c Tesla was not perfectly addressing the thing being discussed.

Tesla plans to produce 20 millions autonomous vehicles annually by 20230, right? We know they also plan to make the cost per mile far cheaper than any currently existing mode of transport. So, transportation should become extremely affordable to a point where many people could subscribe to a robotaxi service and not care much about distance (time is not an issue anymore if you don't have to drive and spend the while trip on NetFlix or a PlayStation).

People will quickly move further out in the suburbs, en masse. And that is simply not sustainable b/c of the biodiversity catastrophe.

Are comments about climate change labeled as Off Topic in this thread? I don't think so, especially since space can be discussed at will (even though there is far less relationship between Tesla/TSLA and space than with the soon-to-be #1 global issue).

Please accept a little bit of controversy here to avoid losing substance for long term investors here. That being said, I'm OK with continuing such discussion elsewhere (e.g TSLA, biodiversity collapse & climate change) but if we can't create bridges with the main threads, the discussion cannot take place.

Edit: I just saw the latest warning Wiki - Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable, the page wasn't refreshed when I posted the above comment. My bad
 
Is the market going to be stuck in this up and down fake volatility over rates forever? Hard to imagine anyone but a bot selling TSLA today but...

Indeed, TSLA volume pace is down about a million shares in the first 40 minutes of the day vs. yesterday.

...and all these sales are naked shorts :p

Cheers!
 
The flaw in your premise is one of causation.
Your EMSCF ( Elon Musk Sarcasm Correlation Factor) causes the stock price to drop.
When it's more likely the sarcasm is a response to those gleeful because some minor factor hurt the stock price.
The EMSCF is a valuable addition to my acronym vocabulary. Thank you.
The serious question is whether that is causal or reaction( not: -ary).
It would be helpful to know what if any causal connection exists for such events. Were we to understand that better short-term traders, especially option speculators, would benefit greatly. Because we now have quite obvious governmental susceptivity to FUD, and other governmental/competitor encomiums, there are more consequential results than there were when Tesla was tiny.

Frankly I have no idea how to approach this subject which might not cost more than the knowledge would be worth. The extreme interest in these developments goes far beyond sarcastic responses.
 

Eh, I'm not so sure they're wrong.

I think the problem is not the algorithm but prioritizing by top scores for beta access. That means you have to do what you have to do if you want the beta ASAP. Yellow light? Better to run it than to brake. Sharp curve? Better to cut across the yellow line to make it less sharp than take the "aggressive turning" hit. Get cut off? Better to brake gently and nearly rear-end than to brake hard at a safe distance. This is all "un-safe" but it's what it takes to get to the front of the list. And Elon said it's a surprisingly big list, so your place matters.

This setup just rewards some bad things.

I don't think they should be offering beta access in top-score order. I think they should establish a cutoff, say 90, and then lottery off the limited number of spots each day among everyone deemed "safe" (e.g. at or above that threshold). There should be some wiggle room to take some dings to your score in the name of *actual safety* and still reach the milestone of qualifying for the first group. Someone who runs yellow lights isn't going to be a better beta supervisor than someone who doesn't.

(Of course, this is all very short-term -- it sounded like a couple weeks to work down the list from the 100s to the 80s.)
 
Eh, I'm not so sure they're wrong.

I think the problem is not the algorithm but prioritizing by top scores for beta access. That means you have to do what you have to do if you want the beta ASAP. Yellow light? Better to run it than to brake. Sharp curve? Better to cut across the yellow line to make it less sharp than take the "aggressive turning" hit. Get cut off? Better to brake gently and nearly rear-end than to brake hard at a safe distance. This is all "un-safe" but it's what it takes to get to the front of the list. And Elon said it's a surprisingly big list, so your place matters.

This setup just rewards some bad things.

I don't think they should be offering beta access in top-score order. I think they should establish a cutoff, say 90, and then lottery off the limited number of spots each day among everyone deemed "safe" (e.g. at or above that threshold). There should be some wiggle room to take some dings to your score in the name of *actual safety* and still reach the milestone of qualifying for the first group. Someone who runs yellow lights isn't going to be a better beta supervisor than someone who doesn't.

(Of course, this is all very short-term -- it sounded like a couple weeks to work down the list from the 100s to the 80s.)
Here is the thing....THE DRIVER OF THE CAR IS RESPONSIBLE.
There is no end to the stupid stuff people do. Including getting in the back seat of a Tesla while it "self drives"

We really don't deserve nice things as a species because we are so quick to blame ANYONE else for our stupid actions.
 
Eh, I'm not so sure they're wrong.

I think the problem is not the algorithm but prioritizing by top scores for beta access. That means you have to do what you have to do if you want the beta ASAP. Yellow light? Better to run it than to brake. Sharp curve? Better to cut across the yellow line to make it less sharp than take the "aggressive turning" hit. Get cut off? Better to brake gently and nearly rear-end than to brake hard at a safe distance. This is all "un-safe" but it's what it takes to get to the front of the list. And Elon said it's a surprisingly big list, so your place matters.

This setup just rewards some bad things.

I don't think they should be offering beta access in top-score order. I think they should establish a cutoff, say 90, and then lottery off the limited number of spots each day among everyone deemed "safe" (e.g. at or above that threshold). There should be some wiggle room to take some dings to your score in the name of *actual safety* and still reach the milestone of qualifying for the first group. Someone who runs yellow lights isn't going to be a better beta supervisor than someone who doesn't.

(Of course, this is all very short-term -- it sounded like a couple weeks to work down the list from the 100s to the 80s.)

I agree it is a very short-term problem. CR’s article indicates they don’t understand where Safety Score is going, how it will be improved and the methods used to improve it, and also their motivation to jump on Tesla for the smallest things.
 
Eh, I'm not so sure they're wrong.

This is exactly what other large Auto Insurance companies do with their driver monitoring Apps. Consumer Reports is wrong. And they continue to not care because they publish click-bait motivated stories, not auto journalism.

There's a big change coming to the Insurance/Safety industry though. In the near-future, once Tesla has the 'single-stack' FSD neural net which provides both standard autopilot to all Tesla's with Hdw 3.0 or greater, then the driver safety ratings will be based on how FSD would have driven, even for base optioned cars w/o an FSD-enabled software license.

Let me say that again: the Single-Stack for Autopilot and FSD will allow Tesla to generate a driver safety profile based on real-time driving behavior compared to a known standard.

Elon said 'single-stack' may be coming to FSD beta in October. That means as soon as somebody receives the beta, Tesla will be able to generate a highly-accurate driver safety profile. This is HUGE.

Cheers!
 
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Here is the thing....THE DRIVER OF THE CAR IS RESPONSIBLE.
There is no end to the stupid stuff people do. Including getting in the back seat of a Tesla while it "self drives"

We really don't deserve nice things as a species because we are so quick to blame ANYONE else for our stupid actions.

Yeah but... we want EVs and solar panels to be cheap enough, because if they're way more expensive than ICE and Oil, we know nobody is going to buy them. We know that we need to line up our incentives to get the behavior we want out of the species. (And I don't mean government rebates, I mean making it economical and otherwise personally beneficial to do the right thing.) Tesla has done great at this!

However, I think they could have improved the incentive structure for granting FSD beta access. That's all I'm saying. I think the safety score is perfectly reasonable to use for any insurance I won't be purchasing (yeah, suck it, aggressive cornering). But I think they could have avoided some short-term pitfalls by better structuring the FSD Beta access incentives.
 
Hi Mod,

Are such postings not allowed b/c they can be misunderstood? My comment isn't about fixing all the world's problems.

This thread isn't just about the very short term, is it? I thought we merged the general and short term threads months ago.

I've been quite a long term investor, having put 98+% of my wealth and savings into TSLA since 2012. When I made this decision, we could start a discussion and not shut it down simply b/c the topic was a tiny-bit controversial or b/c Tesla was not perfectly addressing the thing being discussed.

Tesla plans to produce 20 millions autonomous vehicles annually by 20230, right? We know they also plan to make the cost per mile far cheaper than any currently existing mode of transport. So, transportation should become extremely affordable to a point where many people could subscribe to a robotaxi service and not care much about distance (time is not an issue anymore if you don't have to drive and spend the while trip on NetFlix or a PlayStation).

People will quickly move further out in the suburbs, en masse. And that is simply not sustainable b/c of the biodiversity catastrophe.

Are comments about climate change labeled as Off Topic in this thread? I don't think so, especially since space can be discussed at will (even though there is far less relationship between Tesla/TSLA and space than with the soon-to-be #1 global issue).

Please accept a little bit of controversy here to avoid losing substance for long term investors here. That being said, I'm OK with continuing such discussion elsewhere (e.g TSLA, biodiversity collapse & climate change) but if we can't create bridges with the main threads, the discussion cannot take place.

Edit: I just saw the latest warning Wiki - Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable, the page wasn't refreshed when I posted the above comment. My bad

The issue is not whether your topic can be misunderstood or is controversial, but whether it belongs here. An almost identical post by you was moved by mods to off topic galore a month ago. The message: it is considered off topic. One month later that has not changed.

Too many subjects which are only vaguely or not at all related to Tesla get dragged by the hair into the main thread. And one such post would not do much harm, the problem is the avalanche of responses it provokes and which push the thread ever more off topic. Yes, people talk about SpaceX too, but what you do not know is that many SpaceX posts are moved or completely removed by mods for going off into the woods (Bezos anyone?). The same happens to many posts about climate change and a myriad of other subjects.