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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

RobDickinson

Active Member
Jun 23, 2019
1,819
6,566
New Zealand
Wow. Didnt catch your original post said that September was the same as the previous 8 months combined and basically doubled the 2021 sales. Thats crazy.
Yeah they had ~1500 cars to deliver in Sept and spent 2/3rds of the month in L4 lockdown unable to do anything!

Apparently supplies of new licence plates ran out :O
 
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Duffer

TSLA Long
Oct 19, 2017
454
1,539
NorCal
Don't worry, Q3 and Q4 earnings are going to take care of that. Q3/Q4 earnings will make the rest of the auto industry look embarrassing
I don't think that The Street is ready to quit printing money by manipulating TSLA. Therefore, Q3 P&D won't (can't?) be met with the deafening silence of Q2. Even so, I doubt that the true impact of both the Q3 P&D and Earnings will be recognized in the SP or by a change in the media's narrative.

I sure hope that this does not age well.
 

StarFoxisDown!

Active Member
Jan 23, 2019
3,492
32,471
Seattle
I don't think that The Street is ready to quit printing money by manipulating TSLA. Therefore, Q3 P&D won't (can't?) be met with the deafening silence of Q2. Even so, I doubt that the true impact of both the Q3 P&D and Earnings will be recognized in the SP or by a change in the media's narrative.

I sure hope that this does not age well.

I've responded to these types of posts before (nothing bad about your post, just the general sentiment that you conveyed) and I'll just remind people, there's a huge difference in stock action and perception between a company posting earnings that take it's P/E from like 1,200 to 650 (Q1 earnings) or 650 to 375 (Q2 earnings) compared to earnings taken the P/E down from 400 to 200 (Q3 earnings) and from 200 to sub-100( Q4 earnings).

I feel people actually investing based on past post earnings stock performance will be really regretting it this time around.
 

woodisgood

Slightly faster than 5mph
Jul 26, 2018
2,740
15,496
San Francisco
To keep things in perspective now that the month is over:

September:
TSLA +8.5%
S&P500 -4.8%
DOW -4.3%
NASDAQ -5.3
ARKK -9.5%

Q3:
TSLA +13.3%
S&P500 +0.2%
DOW -1.9%
NASDAQ -0.4%
ARKK -15.4%

I feel like there’s a good chance our #3 shareholder has a lot to do with that September performance.
 

Tes La Ferrari

Active Member
Jun 1, 2018
1,239
8,478
Canada
In the recent Kara Swisher interview that was posted here earlier, Elon mentioned his options, and the requirement to exercise some of them by the end of the year; other wise he will lose them. He also reflected on the substantial tax bill that will come due .

Of course this changes nothing with regards to Elon's commitment to Tesla and is in keeping with his long held stance that he will remain "first in - last out".

To get ahead of the FUD that will be spun by the usual suspects, & is likely to accompany such an exercise / sale that might follow to pay taxes, do we know how many shares / options that he will likely take action on, and the absolute final date that those might be sold to pay the 53%+ tax bill that Elon spoke of in the interview?

Perhaps experts could chime in on what his likely course of action will be. ie Could he prolong the date of exercise to defer a sale (to pay any resultant tax liability) ?
 
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hobbes

Active Member
Feb 11, 2013
2,780
16,003
Germany
Do you have any previous months? Would be interesting to see how Q3 compares to Q2.

I googled a bit and found maybe the best official registrations page I have seen so far:

You can configure everything and even get the live data for the current month!

Tesla has in Sep 2021 (percentages of market including not-new registrations e.g. used Nissans imported from Japan according to @RobDickinson )
  • 5% of the total passenger car market
  • 43% of the BEV market, followed by Nissan at 24% and MG and Hyundai at 11% each

Previous quarters total Tesla registrations/market share:

2021 Q3: 216/0,4%
2020 Q4: 110/0.2%

2021 Q1: 395/0,7%
2021 Q2: 324/0,5%
2021 Q3: 1465/2,7%

So to answer your question, in Q3 Tesla sold more than 5 times as many vehicles compared to Q2 😄!


@Troy


EDIT: comment to reflect that market data includes not-new registrations
 
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RobDickinson

Active Member
Jun 23, 2019
1,819
6,566
New Zealand
I googled a bit and found maybe the best official registrations page I have seen so far:

You can configure everything and even get the live data for the current month!

Tesla has in Sep 2021:
  • 5% of the total passenger car market
  • 43% of the BEV market, followed by Nissan at 24% and MG and Hyundai at 11% each

Previous quarters total Tesla registrations/market share:

2021 Q3: 216/0,4%
2020 Q4: 110/0.2%

2021 Q1: 395/0,7%
2021 Q2: 324/0,5%
2021 Q3: 1465/2,7%

So to answer your question, in Q3 Tesla sold more than 5 times as many vehicles compared to Q2 😄!


@Troy


Be careful there, that is all car registrations and not new vehicles, almost all of those Nisan leafs will be used japan imports.
 

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
10,553
143,226
Canada
For those that closely watch other stocks (I don't), do any other stocks behave this way, where they are so significantly manipulated?

Both the main indices (NASDAQ-100 and S&P 500) sold off at the end of the day today. Tesla was capped during the day, as we expected from Options open interest data.

TSLA.chart.2021-09-30.16-00.png


For the week, TSLA was up 4% while both major indices finished down at -3% for a gain of +7% vs other major publicly-traded companies:

TSLA.5-Day.2021-10-01.png


Cheers!
 
Last edited:

kanweg

Member
Jun 11, 2020
483
4,424
Europe
I've responded to these types of posts before (nothing bad about your post, just the general sentiment that you conveyed) and I'll just remind people, there's a huge difference in stock action and perception between a company posting earnings that take it's P/E from like 1,200 to 650 (Q1 earnings) or 650 to 375 (Q2 earnings) compared to earnings taken the P/E down from 400 to 200 (Q3 earnings) and from 200 to sub-100( Q4 earnings).
Can you tell inexperienced me what is the difference?
 

elasalle

driVIN(188xx) it !!
Jan 26, 2016
4,891
29,805
VA
Still holding on to 10/8, 10/15 780, 800 calls ... lotto ..get rich or die tryin calls :) will convert to leaps if things play out my way

The decision to export from China was the best decision of this quarter and am counting on a blow out because of it.

Best of luck, cheers!!

(+Treasury down, BTC up ... so some hope on macros too...)
 
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Todd Burch

Voltage makes me tingle.
Nov 3, 2009
8,269
34,264
Smithfield, VA
Both the main indices (NASDAQ-100 and S&P 500) sold off at the end of the day today. Tesla was capped during the day, as we expected from Options open interest data.
I'm not talking about the drop at the end of the day. I'm talking about how it goes up $10, then is brought back to near-zero. Then pops up, then brought back, then as volume wanes through the day, TSLA is held VERY close to 0% for a good portion of the day, which can't be a coincidence.
 

StarFoxisDown!

Active Member
Jan 23, 2019
3,492
32,471
Seattle
I'm not talking about the drop at the end of the day. I'm talking about how it goes up $10, then is brought back to near-zero. Then pops up, then brought back, then as volume wanes through the day, TSLA is held VERY close to 0% for a good portion of the day, which can't be a coincidence.

That's capping/spoofing in action. Very common manipulation method to cap any rise in share price
 

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