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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

jbcarioca

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Feb 3, 2015
5,820
33,557
The flaw in your premise is one of causation.
Your EMSCF ( Elon Musk Sarcasm Correlation Factor) causes the stock price to drop.
When it's more likely the sarcasm is a response to those gleeful because some minor factor hurt the stock price.
The EMSCF is a valuable addition to my acronym vocabulary. Thank you.
The serious question is whether that is causal or reaction( not: -ary).
It would be helpful to know what if any causal connection exists for such events. Were we to understand that better short-term traders, especially option speculators, would benefit greatly. Because we now have quite obvious governmental susceptivity to FUD, and other governmental/competitor encomiums, there are more consequential results than there were when Tesla was tiny.

Frankly I have no idea how to approach this subject which might not cost more than the knowledge would be worth. The extreme interest in these developments goes far beyond sarcastic responses.
 

ammulder

3P, X ordered
Supporting Member
Apr 11, 2019
1,419
5,329
Philly area

Eh, I'm not so sure they're wrong.

I think the problem is not the algorithm but prioritizing by top scores for beta access. That means you have to do what you have to do if you want the beta ASAP. Yellow light? Better to run it than to brake. Sharp curve? Better to cut across the yellow line to make it less sharp than take the "aggressive turning" hit. Get cut off? Better to brake gently and nearly rear-end than to brake hard at a safe distance. This is all "un-safe" but it's what it takes to get to the front of the list. And Elon said it's a surprisingly big list, so your place matters.

This setup just rewards some bad things.

I don't think they should be offering beta access in top-score order. I think they should establish a cutoff, say 90, and then lottery off the limited number of spots each day among everyone deemed "safe" (e.g. at or above that threshold). There should be some wiggle room to take some dings to your score in the name of *actual safety* and still reach the milestone of qualifying for the first group. Someone who runs yellow lights isn't going to be a better beta supervisor than someone who doesn't.

(Of course, this is all very short-term -- it sounded like a couple weeks to work down the list from the 100s to the 80s.)
 

Unpilot

Sell order in at $5999.99
Supporting Member
Dec 2, 2017
5,271
42,998
A Coast
Eh, I'm not so sure they're wrong.

I think the problem is not the algorithm but prioritizing by top scores for beta access. That means you have to do what you have to do if you want the beta ASAP. Yellow light? Better to run it than to brake. Sharp curve? Better to cut across the yellow line to make it less sharp than take the "aggressive turning" hit. Get cut off? Better to brake gently and nearly rear-end than to brake hard at a safe distance. This is all "un-safe" but it's what it takes to get to the front of the list. And Elon said it's a surprisingly big list, so your place matters.

This setup just rewards some bad things.

I don't think they should be offering beta access in top-score order. I think they should establish a cutoff, say 90, and then lottery off the limited number of spots each day among everyone deemed "safe" (e.g. at or above that threshold). There should be some wiggle room to take some dings to your score in the name of *actual safety* and still reach the milestone of qualifying for the first group. Someone who runs yellow lights isn't going to be a better beta supervisor than someone who doesn't.

(Of course, this is all very short-term -- it sounded like a couple weeks to work down the list from the 100s to the 80s.)
Here is the thing....THE DRIVER OF THE CAR IS RESPONSIBLE.
There is no end to the stupid stuff people do. Including getting in the back seat of a Tesla while it "self drives"

We really don't deserve nice things as a species because we are so quick to blame ANYONE else for our stupid actions.
 

woodisgood

Slightly faster than 5mph
Jul 26, 2018
2,719
15,335
San Francisco
Eh, I'm not so sure they're wrong.

I think the problem is not the algorithm but prioritizing by top scores for beta access. That means you have to do what you have to do if you want the beta ASAP. Yellow light? Better to run it than to brake. Sharp curve? Better to cut across the yellow line to make it less sharp than take the "aggressive turning" hit. Get cut off? Better to brake gently and nearly rear-end than to brake hard at a safe distance. This is all "un-safe" but it's what it takes to get to the front of the list. And Elon said it's a surprisingly big list, so your place matters.

This setup just rewards some bad things.

I don't think they should be offering beta access in top-score order. I think they should establish a cutoff, say 90, and then lottery off the limited number of spots each day among everyone deemed "safe" (e.g. at or above that threshold). There should be some wiggle room to take some dings to your score in the name of *actual safety* and still reach the milestone of qualifying for the first group. Someone who runs yellow lights isn't going to be a better beta supervisor than someone who doesn't.

(Of course, this is all very short-term -- it sounded like a couple weeks to work down the list from the 100s to the 80s.)

I agree it is a very short-term problem. CR’s article indicates they don’t understand where Safety Score is going, how it will be improved and the methods used to improve it, and also their motivation to jump on Tesla for the smallest things.
 

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
10,509
142,339
Canada
Eh, I'm not so sure they're wrong.

This is exactly what other large Auto Insurance companies do with their driver monitoring Apps. Consumer Reports is wrong. And they continue to not care because they publish click-bait motivated stories, not auto journalism.

There's a big change coming to the Insurance/Safety industry though. In the near-future, once Tesla has the 'single-stack' FSD neural net which provides both standard autopilot to all Tesla's with Hdw 3.0 or greater, then the driver safety ratings will be based on how FSD would have driven, even for base optioned cars w/o an FSD-enabled software license.

Let me say that again: the Single-Stack for Autopilot and FSD will allow Tesla to generate a driver safety profile based on real-time driving behavior compared to a known standard.

Elon said 'single-stack' may be coming to FSD beta in October. That means as soon as somebody receives the beta, Tesla will be able to generate a highly-accurate driver safety profile. This is HUGE.

Cheers!
 
Last edited:

ammulder

3P, X ordered
Supporting Member
Apr 11, 2019
1,419
5,329
Philly area
Here is the thing....THE DRIVER OF THE CAR IS RESPONSIBLE.
There is no end to the stupid stuff people do. Including getting in the back seat of a Tesla while it "self drives"

We really don't deserve nice things as a species because we are so quick to blame ANYONE else for our stupid actions.

Yeah but... we want EVs and solar panels to be cheap enough, because if they're way more expensive than ICE and Oil, we know nobody is going to buy them. We know that we need to line up our incentives to get the behavior we want out of the species. (And I don't mean government rebates, I mean making it economical and otherwise personally beneficial to do the right thing.) Tesla has done great at this!

However, I think they could have improved the incentive structure for granting FSD beta access. That's all I'm saying. I think the safety score is perfectly reasonable to use for any insurance I won't be purchasing (yeah, suck it, aggressive cornering). But I think they could have avoided some short-term pitfalls by better structuring the FSD Beta access incentives.
 

Right_Said_Fred

Moderator
May 11, 2012
4,098
36,793
The Netherlands
Hi Mod,

Are such postings not allowed b/c they can be misunderstood? My comment isn't about fixing all the world's problems.

This thread isn't just about the very short term, is it? I thought we merged the general and short term threads months ago.

I've been quite a long term investor, having put 98+% of my wealth and savings into TSLA since 2012. When I made this decision, we could start a discussion and not shut it down simply b/c the topic was a tiny-bit controversial or b/c Tesla was not perfectly addressing the thing being discussed.

Tesla plans to produce 20 millions autonomous vehicles annually by 20230, right? We know they also plan to make the cost per mile far cheaper than any currently existing mode of transport. So, transportation should become extremely affordable to a point where many people could subscribe to a robotaxi service and not care much about distance (time is not an issue anymore if you don't have to drive and spend the while trip on NetFlix or a PlayStation).

People will quickly move further out in the suburbs, en masse. And that is simply not sustainable b/c of the biodiversity catastrophe.

Are comments about climate change labeled as Off Topic in this thread? I don't think so, especially since space can be discussed at will (even though there is far less relationship between Tesla/TSLA and space than with the soon-to-be #1 global issue).

Please accept a little bit of controversy here to avoid losing substance for long term investors here. That being said, I'm OK with continuing such discussion elsewhere (e.g TSLA, biodiversity collapse & climate change) but if we can't create bridges with the main threads, the discussion cannot take place.

Edit: I just saw the latest warning Wiki - Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable, the page wasn't refreshed when I posted the above comment. My bad

The issue is not whether your topic can be misunderstood or is controversial, but whether it belongs here. An almost identical post by you was moved by mods to off topic galore a month ago. The message: it is considered off topic. One month later that has not changed.

Too many subjects which are only vaguely or not at all related to Tesla get dragged by the hair into the main thread. And one such post would not do much harm, the problem is the avalanche of responses it provokes and which push the thread ever more off topic. Yes, people talk about SpaceX too, but what you do not know is that many SpaceX posts are moved or completely removed by mods for going off into the woods (Bezos anyone?). The same happens to many posts about climate change and a myriad of other subjects.
 

AudubonB

One can NOT induce accuracy with precision!
Mar 24, 2013
8,482
32,354
Moderators Complain TMC's Reaction Score Could Result in Less Bannings

"The focus on improving reaction score could reduce our ability to ban users", lamented one moderator in rural Alaska.
I categorically can state that Moderator would commit seppuku with a rusty screwdriver before ever uttering or writing the two word combination “Less Bannings”.🤮
 

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
10,509
142,339
Canada
Bahaha! CAMPED! at the MA(10)

sc.TSLA.10-DayChart.2021-10-01.10-45.png


Wedgies are so predictable... :p

Cheers!
 

Christine69420

Autopilot's Assistant
Supporting Member
Oct 19, 2018
1,374
17,157
Scandiwegian

To this I can add that TMY is the 6th most sold car model in Norway YTD. Quite impressive since it did not start selling until August.

The TM3 is the model most sold this year - 9266 cars vs 4873 of the TMY.

VW loudly announced their goal for 2021 was for the ID.4 to become the most sold car this year. They are currently in 3rd with 6289 cars sold. The second place is held by the best selling fossil - Toyota's Rav4 at 7217 cars sold.
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
7,739
33,255
Philadelphia, PA
Hi Mod,

Are such postings not allowed b/c they can be misunderstood? My comment isn't about fixing all the world's problems.

This thread isn't just about the very short term, is it? I thought we merged the general and short term threads months ago.

I've been quite a long term investor, having put 98+% of my wealth and savings into TSLA since 2012. When I made this decision, we could start a discussion and not shut it down simply b/c the topic was a tiny-bit controversial or b/c Tesla was not perfectly addressing the thing being discussed.

Tesla plans to produce 20 millions autonomous vehicles annually by 20230, right? We know they also plan to make the cost per mile far cheaper than any currently existing mode of transport. So, transportation should become extremely affordable to a point where many people could subscribe to a robotaxi service and not care much about distance (time is not an issue anymore if you don't have to drive and spend the while trip on NetFlix or a PlayStation).

People will quickly move further out in the suburbs, en masse. And that is simply not sustainable b/c of the biodiversity catastrophe.

Are comments about climate change labeled as Off Topic in this thread? I don't think so, especially since space can be discussed at will (even though there is far less relationship between Tesla/TSLA and space than with the soon-to-be #1 global issue).

Please accept a little bit of controversy here to avoid losing substance for long term investors here. That being said, I'm OK with continuing such discussion elsewhere (e.g TSLA, biodiversity collapse & climate change) but if we can't create bridges with the main threads, the discussion cannot take place.

Edit: I just saw the latest warning Wiki - Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable, the page wasn't refreshed when I posted the above comment. My bad
You try to turn every thread and topic into a biodiversity conversation. Oil thread. This thread. I believe you've even PM'd me about biodiversity.

If you only talk about one topic 100% of the time, it's going to be off-topic 99% of the time.
 

jbcarioca

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Feb 3, 2015
5,820
33,557
That’s typically not how partnerships go when melding two different cultures - I’m referencing ‘smoothness’ of decisions, plans, movement towards goal, etc…

Indeed, partnerships tend to epically fail at some point...

As much as it would help ‘us’ for other companies and entrepreneurs to partner with Elon and his various companies, the truth to me seems to be that most are unwilling to risk everything for what’s important for all.
...
During my 45 year professional career I helped create, worked in or helped dismantle many joint ventures. Factually, more than 100, in many countries, at least a few on every permanently populated continent. None have been successful unless one side had absolute control and the other acted as a supplier or semi-passive investor.

Thus entities such as Airbus, Shell, SWIFT and the ones that have been structured to actually avoid governance issues by not really being quite JV's (e.g. Apple/Foxconn, Tesla/Panasonic) are not really exceptions to the rule. Even those have periodic crises that threaten their survival.

Frankly I think it would be quite plausible for Tesla to have relationships with OEM'S, public energy utilities, mining companies and others that could be durable and beneficial. For example, CATL seems quite close to that already. Probably there are a fair number of other suppliers and customers (mostly in TE, probably) already in that category. We will also see some emerging JV-like relationships with financial institutions including insurance companies.

As Tesla grows there will be more and more of those. It is not implausible for those to develop from Supercharger sharing, tier one suppliers beyond batteries (is LK/IDRA already there?) and more.
We don't really need to have the old-fashioned JV's to extract the benefits without enduring the pain.

Whether we like it or not the hugely complex supply chain issues are now being sources of conflict and outright business failures. Government policies play an outsized role in that (see UK today for reference). So too do business short-term thinking (see semiconductor crisis for reference).

Thus far Tesla has done a stellar job of developing and executing fast workarounds for such issues. That very fast reaction and manufacturing change to cope with unforeseen events distinguishes Tesla (and SpaceX) from nearly everyone else.

This quarter Tesla once again proven that it has manufacturing, design and process advantages oven nearly all competitors. Those would ahem been impossible if Tesla did not have very close connections with myriad outside entities. They don't call them JV's or anything like that.

Less us consider those things when we observe business volume and profit numbers from Tesla.
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
7,739
33,255
Philadelphia, PA
And the game of chicken continues. They want to drive the SP down so they can get cheaper shares. Someone's gonna pay....

I would hope no one here will be complaining when MM's drag the SP back up to max pain of $775 at the close. Amazing these guys can maneuver the SP around any way they like, load up, and then let it rip. Do we even have a regulatory body watching over this marketplace?
 

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