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There is a lot of great engineering systems work from Deming and others. Toyota (and Japan inc automotive) was a result of a poorly poorly made bet on Hydrogen. For that same investment dollar they could have created Tesla and built battery factories. The funding into hydrogen and the resource allocation was just....mind blowing. Hydrogen fuel cells have exactly 0 market share. Amazing after the analog HDTV fiasco that Japan Inc did it again. Frankly just amazing.

Well the Japanese Rocket industry too, instead of creating blue origin or spacex they did a LM/Boeing useless clone. Sigh. Poor Japan.
The question is why? My personal speculation is that the aging workforce and consequent lack of creativity may have been the major cause.

Those of us who are really old remember when Japan was very, very innovative. Think Honda, Kyocera, Toyota (production technology, Lexus, Prius), Sony/Asahi Kasei (first production li-ion battery), Nissan Leaf and so much more.

The common element is that nearly all of those happened with young people doing the work.
I lived and worked in Japan in the late 1960's when innovation was high. From Honda S600 to Mazda R100, and consumer electronics galore, Japan was inventing itself.

People I met then are often still in charge. Insane, we are all in our late 1970's*. All we want to do is survive.
Unlike most of my Japanese colleagues, I at least know I'm obsolete, so I'm looking for people who'll help correct the egregious mistakes we made with everything from rotary engines and nuclear power to destruction of forests to build ski slopes and condominiums.

Luckily not too many of us are still in power elsewhere. OTOH, there are politicians and the odd Warren Buffet. Most fo those do not really know they are too old to continue, however good or bad we might once have been.

Serious question: How will Elon Musk be in fifteen years time?
*note: not a typo. We think it is still 1975.
 
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People I met then are often still in charge. Insane, we are all in our late 1970's. All we want to do is survive.
Unlike most of my Japanese colleagues, I at least know I'm obsolete
Wow, no wonder you seem to be so sage! 🙃
Serious question: How will Elon Musk be in fifteen years time?
At least 150! 🙃
 
Do you have any idea what they were smoking? Maybe Japan is a small island and everyone in the whole country can refuel at one hydrogen station?
No they're just old (I made another post about that). Even Honshu is 800 miles in length and quite wide too. In my very humble opinion the major reason was that Toyota could adopt hydrogen without changing anything major in the engines, so the manufacturing would be easy. The second reason was that the petroleum industry could make the hydrogen from hydrocarbons so the existing industrial companies could continue their businesses unimpeded.

FWIW, that still has been a push in many places, always with the petroleum industry pushing. The equivalent is the US was the push for corn-based ethanol, that consumes more energy than iit produces, just like petroleum produced hydrogen.

That Is quite like giving EV credit to hybrids. Old people tend to think that is a good idea because ti preserves the status quo. so nobody need to do anything new, but they can claim 'greenness'.

Just think about it. Each of those things is promoted most strongly by old people.

(you really should believe me, I know. I'm very old!)
is there anything at all fallacious in my logic in that last segment? Of course not.👴
 
No they're just old (I made another post about that). Even Honshu is 800 miles in length and quite wide too. In my very humble opinion the major reason was that Toyota could adopt hydrogen without changing anything major in the engines, so the manufacturing would be easy. The second reason was that the petroleum industry could make the hydrogen from hydrocarbons so the existing industrial companies could continue their businesses unimpeded.
It seems that Toyota's management believe a "hydrogen economy" satisfies a Japanese national imperative. Something that is supported by the strengths and skills of all of its people and industries.

It is baffling to me that they can completely miss something so obvious and go down a four-lane dead end freeway. But I don't think we can accuse Toyota of looking out only for its own interests.

Edit: Note that their views seem to be a result of honestly-held conviction. In US business, we have so little of that. Musk is a breath of fresh air in that regard and we rely on his convictions to our great benefit. But it does demonstrate that conviction is double-edged.
 
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Gordo is always dressed slick though, ngl. Wrong about this growth story but his stylist is on point.
all appearance, no substance
So somehow, tomorrow I’m going over to a billionaire’s house of a large internet media giant.

How long after introductions is it appropriate to advise them to put all their liquid assets into Tesla?
if the discussion derives on the ways to become the first trillionaire…
 
There is a lot of great engineering systems work from Deming and others. Toyota (and Japan inc automotive) was a result of a poorly poorly made bet on Hydrogen. For that same investment dollar they could have created Tesla and built battery factories. The funding into hydrogen and the resource allocation was just....mind blowing. Hydrogen fuel cells have exactly 0 market share. Amazing after the analog HDTV fiasco that Japan Inc did it again. Frankly just amazing.

Well the Japanese Rocket industry too, instead of creating blue origin or spacex they did a LM/Boeing useless clone. Sigh. Poor Japan.
As far as Japan is concerned, it's a cultural issue. That's just how it is. But Japan has bigger problems then this anyways, their demographic collapse will be by far the worst in the developed world.
 
No they're just old (I made another post about that). Even Honshu is 800 miles in length and quite wide too. In my very humble opinion the major reason was that Toyota could adopt hydrogen without changing anything major in the engines, so the manufacturing would be easy. The second reason was that the petroleum industry could make the hydrogen from hydrocarbons so the existing industrial companies could continue their businesses unimpeded.

FWIW, that still has been a push in many places, always with the petroleum industry pushing. The equivalent is the US was the push for corn-based ethanol, that consumes more energy than iit produces, just like petroleum produced hydrogen.

That Is quite like giving EV credit to hybrids. Old people tend to think that is a good idea because ti preserves the status quo. so nobody need to do anything new, but they can claim 'greenness'.

Just think about it. Each of those things is promoted most strongly by old people.

(you really should believe me, I know. I'm very old!)
is there anything at all fallacious in my logic in that last segment? Of course not.👴

I have harped on this in the past, though not on this forum.

Not only does it suck to get old, but almost invariably old people suck.

Call me ageist if you will, but as someone who is closer to old than young, hell yeah it is true.

A huge amount of the problems and issues the world has and has always had stems from the fact that almost all the time old people are in charge.
 
No they're just old (I made another post about that). Even Honshu is 800 miles in length and quite wide too. In my very humble opinion the major reason was that Toyota could adopt hydrogen without changing anything major in the engines, so the manufacturing would be easy. The second reason was that the petroleum industry could make the hydrogen from hydrocarbons so the existing industrial companies could continue their businesses unimpeded.

FWIW, that still has been a push in many places, always with the petroleum industry pushing. The equivalent is the US was the push for corn-based ethanol, that consumes more energy than iit produces, just like petroleum produced hydrogen.

That Is quite like giving EV credit to hybrids. Old people tend to think that is a good idea because ti preserves the status quo. so nobody need to do anything new, but they can claim 'greenness'.

Just think about it. Each of those things is promoted most strongly by old people.

(you really should believe me, I know. I'm very old!)
is there anything at all fallacious in my logic in that last segment? Of course not.👴
Old people do not have an exclusive on laziness (not wanting to do work and make investments). I think there are business incentives that transcend age. At least that is what I thought at the 2016 SAE World Congress when all the existing auto companies had their head in the sand about EVs.

I think my conclusion was fear/greed based denial/balking.

Maybe company age vs person's age? I feel like Honda went to hell in a hand-basket when old man Honda died, even though his successor was younger.

It is not age.
 
Agile is really just convention to describe fast iteration, mostly applied to software and project management.
In 2003 I worked with a large team that tried to use those concepts with a huge merger integration that required many very fast integrations of incompatible systems and processes. We were mostly ignorant and knew that. These concepts helped immeasurably to solve problems quickly and fix mistakes we made along the way. We managed to do that only because the client was desperate.

Now, seeing how Musk-world is doing this I am astonished. It takes massive confidence and humility to do this process called Agile. Nearly everyone fails doing it, precisely because they fear failure. From the beginning, before SpaceX, Elon Musk has had both confidence and humility.

The ‘holy grail’ of this might be to try to never make the same mistake twice. The corollary might be to avoid large scale deployment until you’ve solved the problems of small scale.

As we know from ‘Elon time’ the chief frustration is that you never know how much time and effort it takes to move from test to production.

The Joe Justice vídeo reminds me of how much I had forgotten. When that happens I suspect that is when I am remembering things I never knew.

Toyota, the disciples of Deming, masters of JIT and Lean, do not know that those earth shattering principles of 1980’s, are completely obsolete now.
Deming and Lean principles are still highly relevant. Joe actually said that Tesla has a Lean team and uses that framework. He talks at length about kanbans, kaizen, value-added steps, multifunctional employees, etc.


In fact, the Musk implementation of Agile is the ultimate embodiment of the Lean/Deming framework. I already believed this to be true but now I've learned it's way better than I thought possible. Deming would be cackling with glee if he saw what they're doing.

For instance, look at Deming's 14 points. Can you think of any other company that *actually* does what Dr. D is recommending better than Elon's companies? Lots pay lip service to it; few execute.


Tesla also clearly uses JIT considering that they have the lowest inventory levels in the auto industry by a country mile, and considering their time from purchasing raw materials to customer delivery is also way ahead of everyone else.
 
I don’t think we need to worry about how Elon is going to behave when his brain will start to deteriorate.

It’s getting more and more obvious the culture and the systems they put in place will always try to make the best decisions by reasoning from 1st principles. “we try to be less wrong”.

Meritocracy will also prevent any nepotism and I don’t think Elon’s kids will just inherit the running of the company.

Makes no sense, when someone else is better and willing. The kids will find their own life callings. If any is that good or better than the father, even better. The goal is set, it’s all about keeping humanity alive and “live among the stars”. Colonize the Solar System and beyond. We will be long gone by then, so … 😂

Wonder what major players will announce a massive purchase of TSLA in the next 6 months. That would be interesting to see.
 
You don’t think TX will ramp faster? The most difficult part to get right was the front and rea chassis. If they both are cast now, the Y line(s) should ramp pretty quickly. They already have the process nailed down from Shanghai. It’s just a matter of dialing in the remaining 1/3 robots.
This has been something I've considered and not seen expressed before. Estimations of the ramp speed for Berlin/Austin have not taken into account that Tesla have Shanghai production lines (3 of them) to refine their start-up process, and Fremont revised lines widening the knowledge base. Granted, there will be a shift to a new paint line, more cast components and the new structural battery pack, but essentially the bulk of the manufacturing steps and components are tried and true production line processes. These new factory startups will have a HUGE leg up on previous attempts.
One thing is ALWAYS true: Tesla iterate astonishingly quickly, and they do not fail to learn from their mistakes. Dragging along the localized outsource vendors may be difficult, but even there they are gaining experience and will anticipate vendor issues.
 
Coronavirus and 2021 in general is really highlighting the weaknesses of JIT. See the ongoing chip fiasco... Take the system out of steady-state just a little bit and it almost completely unravels.
No, it highlights the weaknesses of JIT without the ability to rapidly swap to another option when supply of a widget dries up. Tesla definitely uses JIT. Tesla has talked many times on earnings calls and official reports about how they're always trying to reduce inventory and speed up the time to customer to improve capital efficiency.

Joe Justice talks about how the main criterion for supplier selection at Tesla is speed. Any supplier who can't keep up with a 24 hour kaizen cycle is pretty much automatically disqualified and that this is the main reason Tesla vertically integrates so much. This speed of supplier reaction to changing conditions has been necessary to respond to the chip shortages.
 
I haven’t seen this linked:

Agile at Tesla, by Joe Justice

Joe is apparently a big name in agile, and in this video he details how Tesla does agile. I recommend watching it, there are a lot of details, including how Elon works at Tesla, plus some SpaceX stuff in the end (which is still relevant, as all Musk companies use these methods). The start is a bit slow, and there’s some humblebrag moments.

Thank you so much for posting this.
The video truly is an eyeopener.
Tesla excels not only in the product, but even more in the process: the way Tesla works.

It will be virtually impossible for other existing car brands to copy this from Tesla.
For it would demand extreme leadership and an enormous change in company culture on every level.
And shareholders that understand and accept what needs to be done.
I don't see that happening.
 
Deming and Lean principles are still highly relevant. Joe actually said that Tesla has a Lean team and uses that framework. He talks at length about kanbans, kaizen, value-added steps, multifunctional employees, etc.

In fact, the Musk implementation of Agile is the ultimate embodiment of the Lean/Deming framework. I already believed this to be true but now I've learned it's way better than I t

For instance, look at Deming's 14 points. Can you think of any other company that *actually* does what Dr. D is recommending better than Elon's companies.


Tesla also clearly uses JIT considering that they have the lowest inventory levels in the auto industry by a country mile.
I strongly agree with you. I wanted to say that, but feared it would then get into a longer discussion.Although all of Deming is about continuous improvement, the Agile framework might be more helpful in a pure development context. Deming worked pre-software. Had he been around in the 1980's he would have devoted more consideration to the development issues rather than predominately the production process issues. Lean, as evolved at Toyota, was almost entirely about supply chain management and inventory minimization. Of course it would ahem applied to an integrated manufacturer rather than a supplier-centric operation.
As for Deming's 14 points. They are in several parts antiquated now, although delving In to that too deeply would go Off-topic. If anybody wants to do so, I'd be very happy. We could do so in another thread somewhere else. Since the Deming 14 points, Lean and Agile all address similar goals but emphasize different points, that could be useful. Just one example: In Deming's 14 points the orientation was to craftsman-style production, thus eschewing measurement. Lean and Six Sigma strive most of all to be efficient. Each has similarities but all are aids to make bureaucracy less burdensome.

In innovation, including materials advances, machine design and even much software design the optimal processes tend to return to the scientific method, which might be trivialized by saying "chance favors the prepared mind". It si that which distinguishes the Musk approach in SpaceX, Tesla and everything else.

Once the innovation has been conceived then all those techniques work well. They really are not about developing new things, but making existing ones work better.

That last point is what Elon calls "First Principles". All the rest is not what makes Tesla so outstanding. It is the "First Principles" that provide the insights that make everything else work. Elon calls himself an engineer, but if he were not a very capable physicist he would not recognize such problems as how to make a Gigapress work. That one required new materials, made only because of people who really have devoted themselves to physics. That si also how they're doing so well reducing cobalt and so on.
 
First, I just want to mention, as a Californian it saddens me to realize that Elon is slowly and steadily getting ready to move the headquarters of Tesla out of CA. A big reason for it is the stupidity of politics in CA, but I don't think that is all of it. One of his reasonings to do this would also be to get Tesla a greater visibility and validation as an "All American Company". To a large portion of the country, a company based in SV is almost foreign. I am always amazed at how many of my friends and work colleagues on the east cost even don't realize that Tesla is an all American company and the cars are the most American made cars. Change this to an address in the middle of the country, especially TX, and suddenly the American made topic gets more prominence and authenticity.

No they're just old (I made another post about that). Even Honshu is 800 miles in length and quite wide too. In my very humble opinion the major reason was that Toyota could adopt hydrogen without changing anything major in the engines, so the manufacturing would be easy. The second reason was that the petroleum industry could make the hydrogen from hydrocarbons so the existing industrial companies could continue their businesses unimpeded.

FWIW, that still has been a push in many places, always with the petroleum industry pushing. The equivalent is the US was the push for corn-based ethanol, that consumes more energy than iit produces, just like petroleum produced hydrogen.

That Is quite like giving EV credit to hybrids. Old people tend to think that is a good idea because ti preserves the status quo. so nobody need to do anything new, but they can claim 'greenness'.

Just think about it. Each of those things is promoted most strongly by old people.

(you really should believe me, I know. I'm very old!)
is there anything at all fallacious in my logic in that last segment? Of course not.👴

I have harped on this in the past, though not on this forum.

Not only does it suck to get old, but almost invariably old people suck.

Call me ageist if you will, but as someone who is closer to old than young, hell yeah it is true.

A huge amount of the problems and issues the world has and has always had stems from the fact that almost all the time old people are in charge.

Old people do not have an exclusive on laziness (not wanting to do work and make investments). I think there are business incentives that transcend age. At least that is what I thought at the 2016 SAE World Congress when all the existing auto companies had their head in the sand about EVs.

I think my conclusion was fear/greed based denial/balking.

Maybe company age vs person's age? I feel like Honda went to hell in a hand-basket when old man Honda died, even though his successor was younger.

It is not age.
I wholeheartedly agree with @jbcarioca regarding age - this also is what Elon has been harping on regarding population collapse. A few years back, I would have thought these opinions were non-sense. Population collapse when the world is struggling with too many people? However, last few years my thinking has evolved into the agreeing with population-collapse and old people in places of authority being a real problem to productivity. Now, I am getting there in age as well - so for me it is a consideration and warning for myself to watch out that I don't fall in the same trap - getting comfortable with the status quo to such an extent that you want no change to it.

It has nothing to do with laziness, that is not what is being stated, it is simply resistance to change and unwillingness to take any risk. If you don't take risk, you don't have a risk of failure which is considered the safe approach. I see this all around me, in family where a large percentage of extended family is simply made of aging members over 80yrs old. At work, I see folks in the older age range still quite productive, but simply not able to adapt quickly to faster processes - but being senior and quite often at executive or VP levels, they want to be informed and want to review everything. This leads to layers upon layers of review meetings under the guise of 'doing the right thing'. I am in Biotech industry and used to work for a smaller more nimble company. We got acquired by a large pharma a few years back, and although it gives us strong financial backing, it astounds me how long it takes any clinical study to get initiated with these levels of review, many of which simply feel like folks flexing their egos.

I can imagine the same happens with these large, traditional giants such as Toyota. New ideas get buried in review cycle, more data is always needed to make a decision, lower risk approach is always the tried and tested old ways of doing things, innovative ideas are always asked to produce more proof of concept data to de-risk the project etc etc. All this just adds to time - and no one addresses that fact that time is the most expensive commodity.

Sorry, I know this sounds like a rambling nonsense. My point was to refute that age makes people lazy, I think it is simply makes them more risk-averse. This is the biggest advantage Tesla and all of Elon's companies have - willingness to take risk and willingness to fail. I hope he never changes this philosophy - as long as this attitude remains, TSLA is a great investment. If we ever notice a change, that to me would be a signal to reduce my concentration in this investment. For now, I am at 90% TSLA - the other 10% is because there is no way to get it into TSLA!
 
Deming and Lean principles are still highly relevant. Joe actually said that Tesla has a Lean team and uses that framework. He talks at length about kanbans, kaizen, value-added steps, multifunctional employees, etc.


In fact, the Musk implementation of Agile is the ultimate embodiment of the Lean/Deming framework. I already believed this to be true but now I've learned it's way better than I thought possible. Deming would be cackling with glee if he saw what they're doing.

For instance, look at Deming's 14 points. Can you think of any other company that *actually* does what Dr. D is recommending better than Elon's companies? Lots pay lip service to it; few execute.


Tesla also clearly uses JIT considering that they have the lowest inventory levels in the auto industry by a country mile, and considering their time from purchasing raw materials to customer delivery is also way ahead of everyone else.
I work at Boeing in the Seattle area, which is a union shop. I would also like to add that there is ZERO chance that what Tesla is doing would fly with a union, largely because unions force companies to maintain strictly defined job roles with no overlap, which majorly hampers the rapid learning necessary for Agile at this level.

To go back to the Giga Nevada development example, Joe J said that people would actually rotate through all the different roles on site. They'd work in the tent sometimes, on construction sometimes, or manufacturing design sometimes, etc. He also said that every job at Tesla occurs where the action is. No one has a desk job. Engineers sit on folding chairs with their laptops right next to the robots and production techs.

Moreover, Joe J says that at Tesla every team is authorized to hire or fire people no questions asked. It has to be legal and HR can investigate, but it is understood that every team has this power. Union would not go for that, I guarantee it.

This is a massive competitive advantage over legacy companies with unions in Michigan and Germany.
 
As for Deming's 14 points. They are in several parts antiquated now, although delving In to that too deeply would go Off-topic. If anybody wants to do so, I'd be very happy. We could do so in another thread somewhere else.
As a Six Sigma Blackbelt, I’d be very interested in reading your thoughts on this in another thread.